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On one hand I agree with Taleb’s general point that far too many of our experts are detached from the ground truth with little incentive to realign. On the other hand, my grandmother was afraid of touching doorknobs with her bare hands, even in her own home.
Just blocked a few who discuss this virus in terms of "predicting" & track record, as Phil the rat @PTetlock & others in the "forecasting" BS are presenting it. When you put your seat belt you aren't "forecasting" a crash. When you lock your house you aren't forecasting theft...
— Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) March 6, 2020
(via http://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1235971731782864896)
For those in quarantine (self-imposed or involuntary), a though problem by @SrinivasR1729 pic.twitter.com/dMOcjFwhmJ
— Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) March 5, 2020
(via http://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1235534576518389760)
Never complain about your enemies. You can insult them, anger them, expose them, but never whine about them. Push them to complain about you.
— Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) July 13, 2019
(via http://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1150010103510253569)
When you hedge, treat the possible as likely. When you speculate, treat the likely as merely possible.
— Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) May 18, 2019
(via http://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1129787561252139008)
BEWARE THE "JUST SO" It was always assumed that civilization began with agriculture. Gobekli Tepe, though, was built 500 years before its people built their first farms.https://t.co/obthKq4f9m
— Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) March 16, 2019
(via http://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1107012546639380485)
FRACTAL LOCALISM Defining complexity and selforganization before explaining socioeconomic LOCALISM pic.twitter.com/ogO0MC4Nmi
— Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) March 6, 2019
(via http://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1103404723762327555)
Principles of Politics under Complexity (Thread) pic.twitter.com/VszqPkjFdQ
— Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) September 9, 2018
