Before the Michael Jordan era in the 1990s, one of the "truisms" of the NBA was that you needed a great big man with a true low-post offensive game to win championships. That was part of what made Jordan so special in the eyes of many, that he was able to forge a dynasty without playing next to a great offensive big. After Jordan retired, Shaquille O'Nealand Tim Duncan seemed well on their way to restoring the "low-post offense needed for championship" mantra as between them they won five straight titles and Finals MVPs from 1999 to 2003.
After that a funny thing happened: teams without dominant low-post scorers started winning titles. In 2004 the Pistons won without a consistent low-post offense (Rasheed Wallace could do it, but he plays more often on the perimeter) and guard Chauncey Billups was the Finals MVP. In 2005 the Spurs won, and though Duncan was the Finals MVP a strong case could have been made that Manu Ginobili deserved the award as well. In '06 the Heat won behind Finals MVP Dwyane Wade, as Shaq was a secondary offensive option. In '07 the Spurs won again, but guard Tony Parker was the Finals MVP. In '08 the Celtics won with Kevin Garnett, but wing Paul Pierce was the Finals MVP. So what happened?
Last week I wrote about how the handcheck rules were giving perimeter penetrators such an advantage. Well, a different rule change of the early 2000s also prevents low-post big men from dominating on offense the way that they used to. Namely, the NBA started allowing zone defenses. Before that rule change, it was illegal to double team any player that didn't have the ball. Thus, teams had to defend the Shaqs and Duncans of the world 1-on-1 before they received the ball. They could double on the catch, but often by the time a great post player had the ball in his hands down deep it was too late to prevent easy buckets. Also, having to start the double-team after the post player received the pass put the defense at a disadvantage to crisp passes and ball movement before its rotations could re-settle. In essence, a dominant low-post scoring big man before the rule change was almost undefendable.
After the rule change, though, teams could start their doubling and rotating before the post player ever received the ball. This was epitomized in the 2008 Finals when Kobe Bryant or Lamar Odom would often sag completely off his man to deny Kevin Garnett an entry pass, leaving a player like Rajon Rondo or Kendrick Perkins unguarded and allowing Pierce and Ray Allen to play essentially 1-on-1 against their defenders. This type of defense forces big men either to work much harder to score down low, or to set up further out on the perimeter to get easy scoring chances. It's no coincidence that the only big men to finish in the top-5 in the NBA in scoring since 2003 have been Garnett, Dirk Nowitzki and Amare Stoudemire. Players with throw-back low-post games like O'Neal, Duncan Zach Randolph, or now Al Jefferson can still be effective 20-plus ppg scorers, but seemingly gone are the days when that style lends itself to complete offensive domination.