Hoops Lab

A deep dive into all aspects of NBA basketball. Player evaluations, analytics, and much more.

[hoopslab]

I’m taking my talents to ESPN

In 2010, LeBron James made his infamous Decision announcement, that he was taking his talents to South Beach to play for the Heat. Seven years later, I’ve got my own announcement to make:

I’m taking my talents to Bristol, Connecticut, to work for ESPN. 

I have been hired to be a new face for their fantasy basketball coverage, as well as to contribute to their NBA analytics department. Here is the press release for the move.

For those that have read and supported the Hoops Lab, and have followed me on my journey as a basketball analyst through the years with Rotowire, TYTSports, Fansided and Nylon Calculus...thank you. And please, continue to follow me in my new role at ESPN. I will have a bigger platform, which should include television, digital (podcast), and perhaps radio as well. Be prepared to read, see and hear more from me about the NBA than you ever have before.

So...yeah. This is why there’s been radio silence around here of late, as I’ve been working through this big move. I start at ESPN on Monday, November 20, and expect to see my first articles start then. And the journey continues.

--- Drz

[hoopslab]

NBA DFS Lesson Plan 10/18/17

Big night tonight. Night two of the NBA season, 22 teams playing (20 of which are making their season debuts). Links after the jump.

Teaser & Link for FanDuel advice column on Rotowire.com

While four teams tipped off last night, 20 more make their debuts on Wednesday in addition to two squads playing the second half of their first back-to-backs. There’s action across the board, with some excellent match-ups, underpriced veterans and downright inexpensive rookies to look at. Let’s dig in.

Please see the entire FanDuel article, including individual player recommendations, at Rotowire.

Link for FanDuel advice column on Fansided.com

Link for DraftKings advice column on Fansided.com

[hoopslab]

Predicting Eastern Conference Seeds 1 - 4

The NBA tipped off the 2017 - 18 season last night! Jason Rubin and I made predictions on how the season will play out, specifically the ultimate playoff seeds. All told, we made four different video clips on the subject. On Saturday we released our discussion Western Conference Seeds 5 - 8, on Sunday we predicted the top teams out West, and on Monday released our thoughts on the 5 - 8 seeds in the East. To finish off, here are our thoughts for the top seeds in the East.

(Disclaimer: this video was recorded prior to the season beginning, so obviously we had no idea that Gordon Hayward’s tragic injury would occur).

(Can Giannis Antetokounmpo turn in the MVP caliber season I predicted and lead his team to a top-4 seed?)

Other articles of interest

Predicting Western Conference Seeds 1 - 4 (TYTSports)

Predicting Western Conference seeds 5 - 8 (TYTSports)

Predicting Eastern Conference Seeds 5 - 8 (TYTSports)

[hoopslab]

NBA DFS Lesson Plan 10/17/17 - FanDuel

Thoughts for Tuesday’s games

The FanDuel Main schedule starts at 8:00 PM ET, and will continue with a second game at 10:30 PM ET. This Lesson Plan will link to the two articles I put out today that are optimized for FanDuel game play. One of the FanDuel articles is longer with lots of individual player information, while the other is more concise with a more specific set of recommendations. Teasers/links for these articles can be found below.

NBA Action is back!: When I was a kid, the NBA ran an add campaign: “NBA Action. It’s FAAAAAN-TASTIC!” That’s how I’m feeling right now, with opening tip-off for the season just hours away. The league is fantastic, with a ton of interesting storylines this season, especially after one of the wilder player movement offseasons in memory. We get to see the best of that on Tuesday, with two rivalry games featuring teams expected to view for the championship, several of whom sporting new star players that were picked up this offseason. For me, these two games are definitely must-see TV.

Can Kyrie really carry a squad? One of the big storylines I want to see answered is whether Kyrie Irving was really ready to carry his own, contending squad. The Celtics have quite a bit of talent, but will be relying heavily on Kyrie to take the leap to become their frontline superstar. Can he do it? We know he can score, but can he do so and still create offense for his team? If so, not only will his team be happy, but he would also be very likely to be a fantasy basketball superstar as well. I’m expecting a big game from him tonight, in Cleveland, so he features prominently on my DFS advice in the articles below.

What will Paul and Harden look like, in a D’Antoni offense together? The other biggest storyline I’ll be watching tonight is how Chris Paul and James Harden do, playing together, in one of the most lead-guard friendly offenses of all-time. Is there enough room for them to both thrive? Will one have to take a step back? If so, which? My theory is that this all works out for the Rockets and they become a formidable team, but fantasy-wise the production distribution will be of keen interest. 

Teaser & Link for FanDuel advice column on Rotowire.com

The NBA season is here! The season tips off with two games, both of which featuring teams favored to compete for their conference championships. The Cavaliers defeated the Celtics 4 – 1 in last season’s Eastern Conference Finals, but in the offseason Kyrie Irving requested a trade and ended up as the new leader of the Celtics. That game could have bad blood, and expect the Cavaliers crowd to boo him all night.

The second game of the night features two teams likely to lead the NBA in offense, with Chris Paul having joined James Harden and crew to try to compete with these Warriors. There’s always the chance for rust in the early games of the season, but if these teams play to potential we could have two great match-ups with plenty of points scored all around.

Please see the entire FanDuel article, including individual player recommendations, at Rotowire.

Teaser & Link for FanDuel advice column on Fansided.com

After a long summer wait, NBA action returns to the court on Tuesday. This offseason was amazing, with huge trades and big free agent moves. One of the biggest deals of the offseason involved the Cleveland Cavaliers trading Kyrie Irving to he rival Boston Celtics, after Irving ’s trade request. On Tuesday, Irving and the Celtics make their only trip of the season to Cleveland, where Irving is sure to get booed incessantly.

Another huge move this offseason involved Chris Paul , arguably the greatest point guard of his generation, going to join MVP runner-up James Harden in Houston. This combo of efficient scoring, distributing lead guards in a Mike D’Antoni system should a) lead to a lot of points and b) give the Rockets the best chance they’ve had in recent years to catch up to Golden State Warriors. They will get their first crack at the defending NBA champions on Tuesday, while the Warriors will be eager to prove that they are clearly still the best team in the West.

In addition to both games being rivalry match-ups between squads with championship aspirations, both games also feature two strong offenses with questionable defenses. Despite there being only four teams on display, there’s a reasonable likelihood that a lot of fantasy points will be produced.

Please see the entire FanDuel article, including individual player recommendations, at Fansided.

( Link to Tuesday DraftKings Lesson Plan - when goes live)

[hoopslab]

Predicting Eastern Conference Seeds 5 - 8 (TYTSports)

The NBA tips off the 2017 - 18 season tomorrow! Jason Rubin and I are predicting how the season will play out, specifically the ultimate playoff seeds. All told, we made four different video clips on the subject. On Saturday we released our discussion Western Conference Seeds 5 - 8, on Sunday we predicted the top teams out West, and today we’re talking the 5 - 8 seeds in the East.

(The Toronto Raptors have the ability to finish as one of the top two seeds in the East, but competition could also push them as low as fifth)

Other articles of interest

Predicting Western Conference Seeds 1 - 4 (TYTSports)

Predicting Western Conference seeds 5 - 8 (TYTSports)

[hoopslab]

What is Joel Embiid’s ceiling? (Nylon Calculus)

Last year, I wrote an article on what type of future upside Andrew Wiggins might have, if he keeps playing the way that he has in his early NBA seasons. Today, it’s time to look at Wiggins’ former college teammate Joel Embiid. Embiid was drafted in the class of 2014, just two picks after Wiggins, but Embiid missed the entire first two seasons of his career, injured. He returned last season as a rookie, but managed only 31 games while playing limited minutes.

But man, how he PLAYED in those 31 games...

Embiid could end up being the next in the (unfortunately) long line of dominant centers whose bodies just can’t support them. Or, he could end up being the greatest player of his generation. Check out the following snippet on just how amazing Embiid was during that short rookie campaign to get an idea of what he might become if he’s able to stay healthy. His upside is limitless.

(Published in full as “ Nylon Calculus: Joel Embiid vs Greatest Rookie Center Seasons of Past Quarter Century” on FanSided/The Step Back 10/16/17)

(continued from Nylon Calculus)...

Scoring

In this era of small ball, there was a sense for awhile that the dominant scoring NBA center could be phased out. Instead, in recent years, we’ve seen centers evolve their scoring approaches to include jump shots, face-up ball-handling and 3-point range — skills more traditionally associated with wings and guards. Embiid’s skillset epitomizes the best of these new-age big man scorers, utilizing his ability to get to the rim and draw fouls in addition to his consistent 3-point range to score extremely efficiently at excellent volume from all over the court.

This figure plots the points per 100 possessions vs. the scoring efficiency of 15 of the greatest rookie centers of the past 25 years, including 1984 Ralph Sampson, 1985 Hakeem Olajuwon, 1986 Patrick Ewing, 1990 David Robinson, 1992 Dikembe Mutombo, 1993 Shaquille O’Neal, 1993 Alonzo Mourning, 1998 Tim Duncan, 2003 Yao Ming, 2005 Dwight Howard, 2005 Emeka Okafor, 2011 DeMarcus Cousins, 2013 Anthony Davis, 2016 Karl-Anthony Towns and 2017 Joel Embiid:

As you can see, Embiid was scoring at an unheard of per possessions pace, while maintaining among the best scoring efficiencies on the list. The caveat has to always be that Embiid was playing limited minutes (25.4 minutes per game) and only made it through 31 games, but from observation there was no indication that his pace would be any different if he were healthy enough to play longer. That is a big part of what makes his offensive potential so amazing.

But what about on defense?

...(continued at Nylon Calculus link)

(Please check out the full version of this article as “ Nylon Calculus: Joel Embiid vs Greatest Rookie Center Seasons of Past Quarter Century” on FanSided/The Step Back 10/16/17)

Links of interest

More deserving of max extension: Embiid or Wiggins? (TYTSports)

The Process is over for this season 

Joel Embiid through the eyes of a 76ers expert (The Sixers Sense) 

Embiid’s restrictions make more sense than Strasburg’s (Nylon Calculus)

[hoopslab]

Fantasy NBA Mock Roto Draft: Fake Hoops Master Class

The NBA season starts tomorrow! I’ve still got (at least) one more personal fantasy draft to do...possibly two...so in honor of that, I’ll post one last expert mock draft that I participated in. This mock, which we’re going to play out, we’ve entitled “Fake Hoops Master Class”. It’s an eight category, roto mock with 14 teams. We did a slow, snake draft with 6 hours available per pick, that played out over several days. I had the second pick overall, and was scheming on this finally being the league that I got future NBA MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo. Alas, it wasn’t to be. Check out my picks, as well as my thoughts as I was making them, below:

Round 1: James Harden

As I mentioned, when I saw I was picking second, I wanted to get the Greek Freak, but that was somewhat personal because I don’t have him on any teams yet. I really feel like there are between five and seven reasonable options for the first pick in the draft this year, an almost unheard of situation that really makes it more valuable to pick in the middle of the first round instead of the beginning. Since Antetokounmpo went with the first pick, I decided to go with the Beard in the second slot. I seriously considered both Kevin Durant and Stephen Curry here as well, but in such a deep league, I liked James Harden’s combo of heavy volume, cross-category contributions and solid efficiency. The next four picks after Harden were Karl-Anthony Towns, Durant, Curry and Russell Westbrook.

Round 2: Kyle Lowry

Picking at the back end of the second round in a 14-team league meant that my usual suspects in the second round (e.g. Kyrie Irving at the top of the second, Draymond Green at the bottom) had already been picked. Lowry was good value here, especially if he stays healthy the whole season, because he’s multi-category strong with no real weaknesses. He may be the last player taken that could claim that. After Lowry, the next two picks before my next pick were Bradley Beal and Blake Griffin.

Round 3: Klay Thompson

After going perimeter in my first two picks, I could have easily gone big man in the third. I didn’t feel like the value was there, though, so instead I consolidated my team’s identity as long-range snipers that could score, knock down a lot of treys and still operate at solid efficiency. After Thompson, the next four picks were Dennis Schroder, Kevin Love, Gordon Hayward and DeMar DeRozan.

Round 4: Serge Ibaka

I keep ending up with Ibaka in drafts this year. I like him in roto, because he has the potential to impact both as a shot-blocker and as a 3-point shooter given his position. He’s not a sexy pick, but he’s functional, especially as the first big on my team. After Ibaka, the next two picks before my next one were Jrue Holiday and Dennis Smith.

Round 5: Elfrid Payton

Elfrid Payton hit a stretch in the second half of the season when he was a walking triple-double, and all indications are that he is starting to settle in and feel confident in running the Magic. He’s even starting to develop a bit of a jump shot, which is all benefit in a player that had a solid all-around production portfolio outside of shooting. The next picks after Payton were Jeremy Lin, Avery Bradley, Clint Capela and Nikola Vucevic.

Round 6: Isaiah Thomas

This is, of course, a risky pick with upside. Thomas is injured, could miss up to half of the season, and when he returns it’ll be to a new team, where now he’s the secondary option behind LeBron James, and with other perimeter mouths like Derrick Rose and Dwyane Wade that need to be fed. With that said, if Thomas returns for the second half of the season at full speed, he was by-far the best talent still left on the board. After him, the next two picks before my seventh rounder were Jamal Murray and Evan Fournier.

Round 7: Marcin Gortat

Round 8: Marvin Williams

Round 9: Zach Randolph

Round 10: Markieff Morris

Round 11: Wesley Matthews

Round 12: Frank Kaminsky

Round 13: Lance Stephenson

Round 14: Al-Farouq Aminu

In the later rounds, I tried to balance out my team with solid forward/big man depth. Gortat, Williams, Randolph and Morris are all you-know-what-to-expect type bigs that should support the guards that I drafted early. Matthews, Stephenson and Aminu are more of the same, though trending towards combo forwards instead of bigs. Kaminsky showed signs last season, but with the depth of bigs on Charlotte he may not get the minutes to develop more this season...he’s my one late pick with that mix of upside and risk associated with the young.

All told, I feel like this team is strong on the perimeter, and has reasonable depth in the big forward slots with veteran players that should produce reliably. There’s not a lot of pop in the middle for this squad, but if that becomes a need I should have some perimeter strengths that I could trade from.

Other articles of interest

Fantasy Basketball Mock Draft: NBA Official Points Scoring System

Mock NBA Roto draft - BBM Roto Mock 2017

Mock points-based fantasy basketball draft

[hoopslab]

Predicting Western Conference Seeds 1 - 4 (TYTSports)

The NBA tips off the 2017 - 18 season Tuesday! Jason Rubin and I are predicting how the season will play out, specifically the ultimate playoff seeds. All told, we made four different video clips on the subject. Yesterday we released the predictions for Seeds 5 - 8 in the Western Conference. Today, we tackle the top of the West...can anyone take out the Warriors? What will the other top seeds out West look like? Let’s get into it.

(Can Russell Westbrook and the Thunder lead a credible effort to get past Stephen Curry and the Warriors?)

[hoopslab]

Predicting Western Conference seeds 5 - 8 (TYTSports)

The NBA tips off the 2017 - 18 season this week! After the long summer, the real season is about to begin. In preparation of that, Jason Rubin and I sat down on TYTSports and gave our predictions for how the season would play out. Specifically, which teams would end up making the playoffs, and at which seeds. All told, we made four different video clips on the subject that will come out over the next four days leading up to opening night. Today, check out our thoughts on the teams we expect to finish in the five through eight slots in the Western Conference.

(The Timberwolves and Trail Blazers are among the squads fighting to make the playoffs in the West)

[hoopslab]

Fantasy Basketball Mock Draft: NBA Official Points Scoring System

The NBA season is right around the corner, which means that it’s fantasy draft season. I’ve been participating in experts mock drafts, and will continue to do so ahead of drafting my own leagues.  Starting Sunday, I’ve got three personal drafts in 24 hours, so I’ll be one of the masses that are getting their season-long squads ready ahead of next week’s season tip-off.

This year, the NBA is stepping into the fantasy genre with their own points based official scoring system.  The scoring system is: 1 point per point scored, 1.2 per rebound, 1.5 per assist, 3.0 per block, 3.0 per steal, and -1 per turnover. 

The following is my team from a league built around the NBA’s new points-based system, that was written up on BBM, along with some of my thoughts as I was making my picks. I had the fourth pick in a 12-team, snake draft. My picks:

Round 1: Anthony Davis

I was picking fourth, which is somewhat unfortunate because I feel like there are three sure-things that I’d take at the top of a points-based draft: Russell Westbrook, Giannis Antetokounmpo & James Harden. I tweeted those names almost two weeks ago in response to a question on Twitter from Alan Seslowsky. Of course, in the same tweet, I mentioned that the person I’d consider in the fourth slot would be Davis. He’s risky because he’s such a consistent health risk to miss games, but his game is built for the scoring system. He’s a heavy scorer and rebounder who will also challenge for most blocks/steals combined in the league. I’ll just have to take a chance on him being healthy enough this season.

Round 2: Draymond Green

The three highest-rewarded categories in this league are steals, blocks and assists. Last season, Draymond led the NBA in steals per game, joined LeBron James as the only non-point guard in the top-10 in assists per game, and tied for 11th in the NBA in blocks per game. I took him ahead of Paul George, DeMar DeRozan and DeAndre Jordan, who were taken to finish out the round.

Round 3: Joel Embiid

Here is my make-or-break pick. Embiid’s production per possession as a rookie was beyond insane...I’ve got an article running on Nylon Calculus on Monday, pointing out that his production dwarfed the rookie production of the greatest rookie centers of the past 25 years. On Wednesday he scored 22 points with seven boards, three assists and a block in ONLY 14 MINUTES of a preseason game. On the flip side, he’s only played 31 games in the last three seasons, and those on a minutes restriction. If he gives me 70 games, I win the league. If he gives me 15 (equally in play), then I could be in trouble. I took Embiid ahead of Andre Drummond, Kemba Walker and Marc Gasol (next three picks).

Round 4: Ben Simmons

In some ways, Simmons is an insurance pick for me, because presumably if Embiid goes down, Simmons will have even more responsibility. But even outside of that, Simmons is another lottery ticket in his own right. He’s set to play a lot of point forward for the 76ers, and projects to the type of all-around producer that should shine in this points system. After Simmons, the round finished off with Jeff Teague, Nikola Vucevic and Elfrid Payton.

Round 5: Lonzo Ball

With my third-straight high-upside, high-risk young potential superstar pick, I got the Big Baller in the fifth round. Ball electrified everyone with his play in the Las Vegas Summer League, and of course ESPN ranked Ball over Carmelo Anthony which sparked a huge controversy. For me, when I saw him in Vegas, he looked a lot like Jason Kidd...in the fifth round of the draft, I’m hoping Ball can do a Kidd impression against NBA competition. I took him before Victor Oladipo, Goran Dragic and Clint Capela. 

Round 6: Serge Ibaka

I like Ibaka more in roto than points-based, but in a league that rewards blocks, Ibaka’s not bad. The pickings are starting to get a bit slimmer at this point, as in points-based leagues the talent doesn’t last as long. RIght after Ibaka, Jonas Valanciunas, Markelle Fultz and Harrison Barnes finished the round.

Round 7: Avery Bradley

Round 8: Dario Saric

Round 9: James Johnson

Round 10: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

Round 11: Markieff Morris

Round 12: Derrick Rose

Round 13: Will Barton

In the later rounds, I tried to balance out my team and also give it more upside. I like Bradley in Detroit this year, Saric gives me a third round of redundancy with “the process” in Philadelphia, and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope could be a big scorer in Los Angeles. Derrick Rose will likely start for my team until Isaiah Thomas gets healthy, and Will-the-thrill Barton also has mega upside in the times when he gets into the starting line-up.

All told, this team has a lot of upside, but I took some risks as well. If my risks pay off, I could win this league easily. If it all goes wrong...well, that’s what makes it a fun game!

[hoopslab]

More deserving of max extension: Embiid or Wiggins? (TYTSports)

Andrew Wiggins was the number one overall pick in the 2014 draft, while his Kansas University teammate Joel Embiid was picked third. Earlier this week, both signed max extensions of almost $150,000,000. Of the two, which was the most deserving? If you were a GM, which of the two would you have preferred to give the extension to on your team? Jason Rubin and I discuss, on TYTSports.

Wiggins was the NBA Rookie of the year, has only missed only one game in his NBA career, and averaged 23.6 points per game last year in his third season. However, last year I wrote a series of articles suggesting that his on-court impact wasn’t as large as it should be, and that perhaps he should consider modifying his game to focus more on defense.

Embiid, on the other hand, missed the entirety of his first two seasons, and even last year only managed 31 games of 25 minutes per game as a third-year rookie. But. He absolutely electrified the 76ers with his on-court play and put up per-minute numbers and measured impact that emphasized his tantalizing potential.

Which would you pick?

[hoopslab]

Houston Rockets = 2018 Western Conference Champions

Did you just read that headline correctly? Surely there must be some mistake. After all, everyone knows that the Golden State Warriors are in the midst of a dynasty. They’ve won two championships in the last three years, and in their down year they won an NBA record 73 games and were a fluke suspension to their most important player from taking that title too (you catch what I did there?). They added Kevin Durant last season and became scary Goliath, then casually marched through the season and won the NBA Finals in a ho-hum five games. How, then, could the Houston Rockets be the 2018 Western Conference Champions?

Because, quietly, the Rockets have assembled a perfect storm of talent and strategy that, if they stay healthy, will be enough to topple the mighty Warriors. Let’s look a bit into how this bit of NBA blasphemy will come to pass.

The MVP, SSoL & Dork Elvis

Here’s the thing. The Rockets’ offense last season was, at times, oppressive. They built this unit around the unique synergy of an MVP-caliber lead guard and the Mike D’Antoni Seven Seconds or Less (SSoL) system, an analytics-based style of almost only high-efficiency shots put together by Daryl Morrey (famously dubbed Dork Elvis, by Bill Simmons), and a group of veteran role players (also assembled by Morey) surrounding Harden that could thrive in the roles that allowed that style of play. 

The Rockets, on almost every possession, take either a 3-pointer, a shot in the paint, or free throws. Their wing players like Trevor Ariza, Eric Gordon and even stretch big Ryan Anderson can all hit the spot-up trey at high efficiency. Their bigs like Clint Capela and Nene are excellent at diving to the rim to finish. But the key to all of this...the only reason that this system worked...was the brilliance of Harden, who could handle the ball, penetrate to draw the defense, and then either find the open spot-up shooter or finish himself at extremely high efficiency. 

The load that the offense required Harden to carry was almost inhuman, as he turned in the second-highest usage rate of all time in 2017 (behind only Russell Westbrook). But he was able to carry that load extremely well on a night-in and night-out basis, with very few off performances. Unfortunately for him, one of those off nights came in their last game of the season, which led to the Spurs blowing them out to eliminate them from the playoffs. But considering what was asked of him, Harden’s 2017 performance was remarkable...but what if there were two of him?

The Maestro

Chris Paul has spent his career as a solo Maestro. He’s the quintessential point guard...a floor general that always knows where everyone is on the court, where they should be, and where they want the ball. He operates off the dribble, finding his teammates in positions of advantage and delivering the ball with high efficiency...his career assist-to-turnover ratio of 4.0 is the highest in NBA history, since they started recording turnovers (so says Hubie Brown on the telecast of the Rockets preseason game that I’m currently watching). Paul’s decision making is impeccable, and it can be shown quantitatively with stats such as the video tracking stat Expected Possession Value (EPV), presented at the Sloan Analytics Conference in 2014, that pointed out Paul as the best decision maker in 2013. And Paul is an excellent scoring finisher himself, able to score at high efficiency off a combination of drives, midrange jumpers off the dribble, and long-range shooting.

Paul has made a mega impact across his entire career. He measures out with some of the best Regularized Adusted Plus Minus (RAPM) scores in the NBA over the past decade, meaning that his presence on the court has correlated with higher increases in his teams’ scoring margins than all but a very select few players. The problem, for Paul, is that his teams may have relied too much upon him to create all of the offense. 

In both of his previous stints, with the Hornets and with the Clippers, Paul’s teams tend to have strong defensive centers that relied upon him to set up their scoring opportunities, a second option power forward that could score in bunches but that isn’t the optimal iso scorer (you’d rather have that from a guard or wing), and then wings that are either shooters or 3-and-D guys that can’t create their own offense. Paul could power these teams through the regular season with strong records, but in the playoffs his teams would often succumb to injuries (one of the weaknesses in Paul’s game is his tendency to break down) or to teams that could shut down his teammates enough that Paul would have to take on more and more scoring volume and ultimately be outgunned by more talented scorers...but what if Paul ever played with another high-volume creator?

Perfect Storm

Chris Paul and Mike D’Antoni would have been a match made in heaven, probably even more-so than Harden and D’Antoni were. With Harden already in place, there is the potential of their being friction or diminishing returns in that lead guard role. But, I don’t think that happens here. Instead, I think that Paul and Harden share the load to make something ridiculous. 

Both Paul and Harden, in addition to their abilities to break down defenses off the dribble, have excellent jump shots. Both are, in fact, among the most efficient volume-shooting jump shooters in the NBA. Thus, while one is playing the probing lead guard and breaking down the defense, the other is running off picks or spotting up in advantageous positions on the wing. So, when the lead guard passes, they still have role players at three positions hand-picked to knock down the kind of shot the point guard creates. BUT, the fourth player on the court is both a knock-down shooter AND another MVP-caliber defense killer. That’s a combo with wicked potential.

Both Paul and Harden are used to carrying overly huge burdens that, if they break down or have an off night, dooms their teams. Especially against a juggernaut like the Warriors. But with BOTH Harden and Paul out there, they can feed off of each other in a positive feedback loop. They make life easier for each other, which begats higher efficiency looks, which begats lighter loads, which begats less wear and tear over the season, which begats a suffocating team offense that hardly ever skips a beat. That’s a perfect storm that even the Warriors should be worried about.

Bottom line

The Warriors are, obviously, the chalk pick to win the Western Conference and the NBA title again this season. They are the favorites for very good reason. But if Paul and Harden click the way I expect them to, in this system, with these teammates, and (most importantly) neither is injured by the time the playoffs roll around...I’m predicting that they will be enough to get the Rockets over the hump in the playoffs. The Spurs and the Thunder, maybe even a dark horse team like the Timberwolves could also make things interesting and be a threat to the Warriors and Rockets both. But it says here that, if Harden and Paul make it to the finished line healthy, the Houston Rockets will represent the Western Conference in the NBA Finals this season.

[hoopslab]

Giannis Antetokounmpo = 2018 MVP

I’ve been doing a series of fantasy basketball drafts in prep for the upcoming NBA season. Some of them are mock expert drafts, some of them are drafts that I’m going to play out with my friends, and some are both. But there’s been one commonality, no matter what pick I’ve had in the draft : I absolutely can NOT get Giannis Antetokounmpo on a fantasy team. It seems basically impossible, because no matter where I pick, he’s taken immediately before my pick. Today, in an expert league that we’re playing out, I had the number two overall pick...and I STILL couldn’t get him, as he went number one overall. It’s crazy.

Well, actually, it’s not that crazy. Because a lot of people can see what we just might be in for this season...

It actually makes sense that I can’t get Giannis without the first pick in the draft, because barring injury he’s right on track to be the best player in the NBA this season. And I mean that for both fantasy basketball and real basketball, as Antetokounmpo is poised to take flight. In fact, let’s put it in print:

Giannis Antetokounmpo will be your 2018 NBA Most Valuable Player.

In a league full of superstars, that’s a bold statement. Russell Westbrook, James Harden, Stephen Curry, LeBron James, Kevin Durant...maybe even Anthony Davis or Karl-Anthony Towns might have some things to say about that prediction (especially Harden and Towns). But, with that said, I think it might just be the year of the Greek Freak. Here are a few reasons why:

First, we have to consider that Antetokounmpo earned that “Greek Freak” moniker because his physical tools defied reason. He’s almost 7-feet tall, incredibly long, but can move and jump like a wing. 

Then, we have to remember that he proved last season that he could play full-time point forward and completely excel at the position. 

Next, we should recall that his improvement from 2016 to 2017 wasn’t in any way normal...not only did he win the trophy as the NBA Most Improved player, but he was very possibly the most improved player in any given season in NBA history (as shown by this plot, described in the link):

Finally, we should remember perhaps the scariest thing: he’s still only 22 years old! AND, he was late to the game of basketball, having only started playing within the last decade. As outstanding as he was last season, he was doing it all without much in the way of a jump shot. But people have been watching this preseason and getting excited about the jumper he’s been displaying.

Giannis could legitimately improve as much this year as he improved last season, but consider that he was already in the MVP conversation LAST season and...

Yeah. You’re starting to see the point.

Plus, the Bucks look like they could be a competitively scrappy team in the East this season. This season, they start the year with a healthy Khris Middleton playing the shooter/scorer second option. They’ve got 2017 Rookie of the Year Malcolm Brogdon in Year 2. And they’ve got an eclectic mix of young talent (e.g. Thon Maker) and veteran talent (e.g. Greg Monroe) that should contribute to a decent supporting cast. The Bucks finished with 42 wins last season. If they get up into the 50s this season and earn a top-4 seed in the East, with Giannis putting up video game numbers...say it with me...

MVP.

The competition will be stiff, and there are a lot of excellent players in excellent positions to exceed this season. But with that said, the Hoops Lab’s preseason pick for MVP is none other than Giannis Antetokounmpo. 

(Now, Giannis...go out there and make me look good).

[hoopslab]

Mock NBA Roto draft - BBM Roto Mock 2017

The NBA season is right around the corner, which means that it’s fantasy draft season. I’ve been participating in experts mock drafts, and will continue to do so in addition to drafting my own leagues. The following is my team from the BBM Roto Mock Draft 2017. This was a 12-team, 8-category draft. I had the fifth pick in the snake draft. Here is my team, and some of my thoughts as I was making my picks…

Round 1: Stephen Curry

I was picking fifth, so I was surprised that both Russell Westbrook and Stephen Curry were still available to be picked. James Harden, Kevin Durant, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Karl-Anthony Towns had already gone, so I came on the clock with the two point guards in my sites. Westbrook is coming off the monster triple-double MVP season, but at the time of the draft Paul George had joined the Thunder, and since the draft Carmelo Anthony has joined them. While many sites still have Westbrook at the top of the rankings, I have some questions about that. Plus, in a roto league, I would seriously consider taking Curry number one overall. As such, I passed on the reigning MVP to take the two-time MVP from the two years before.

Round 2: Draymond Green

Curry and Draymond Green measure out in plus-minus studies as one of the most impactful two-man combos of all-time, in real basketball. They mesh just about as well in roto, with Curry dominating the perimeter/shooter/scorer categories but Green contributing the defensive stats with abnormal assists and solid rebounding/3-point shooting numbers. I took Green ahead of Kristaps Porzingis, Kyle Lowry, Kemba Walker and Hassan Whiteside (the next four picks).

Round 3: Klay Thompson

I hadn’t planned it in advance, but I stayed with the Warriors theme in Round 3. Klay gives me a second dominant 3-point shooter/scorer at excellent efficiency, forming out the foundation of my team. The next four picks after Thompson were all bigs, with Joel Embiid as the most intriguing because if he stays healthy he’d be almost a sure-fire first round talent. But he’s a risk. Marc Gasol, Paul Millsap and Nikola Vucevic are more known entities, even with Millsap in a new place.

Round 4: Serge Ibaka

I’m not sure I love this pick, to be honest. At the time, my thought process was that Ibaka was a quality big man, relatively strong in both blocks and treys, and that he would be a valuable complement to my more perimeter-based squad. However, Khris Middleton went with the very next pick, and I had strongly considered him as well.

Round 5: Carmelo Anthony

When I did this draft, Anthony was still with the Knicks. But I knew there was a reasonable chance he’d be moved, and I thought it might be to the Rockets. Instead, he’s now a Thunder, and the jury is still out as to whether he’ll remain a roto star or slide to more of a role player. I’m hoping that he becomes more of a spot-up shooter and floor stretcher, which could be good for his percentages and 3-point shot even if his volume diminishes. In a juxtaposition to the controversial preseason player rankings, in this draft I took Anthony just BEFORE Lonzo Ball.

Round 6: Ben Simmons

At the time of this draft, Simmons was probably considered my “risk” pick, but he’s had a great preseason since then and has moved up in a lot of drafts that I’ve seen. I’m not sure I could get him this late, in a draft today. In this draft, I took him right before Malcolm Brogdon, George Hill and Willie Cauley-Stein.

Round 7: Andrew Wiggins

This is the last pick that I’ll address individually. Wiggins is interesting, because he’s made his career as a volume scorer that doesn’t contribute all that much else. However, with Karl-Anthony Towns zooming into his own and Jimmy Butler there to be the anchor offensive threat on the wing, I have questions about what Wiggins might do this season. In a perfect world, he’d round out his game and start filling in some of the other categories to make up for a bit less scoring. Perhaps focus his tremendous athleticism more on defense, and/or take more spot-up treys. 

Round 8: Dario Saric

Round 9: Reggie Jackson

Round 10: Robin Lopez

Round 11: De’Aaron Fox

Round 12: Dion Waiters

Round 13: Lauri Markkanen

In the last six rounds, I most like my Jackson, Fox and Waiters picks. Jackson had a horrible season last year as he battled injury, but the previous year had gone much better so perhaps he can bounce-back. Fox is an exciting rookie with upside well beyond this draft placement. And Waiters was looking excellent last season when healthy, so he also could be a roto starter drafted during bench-filling times.

All told, this team is pretty balanced with excellent perimeter potential that should allow it to challenge in most leagues.

[hoopslab]

Have Curry and Durant surpassed Pippen and Kidd on GOAT list?

In the RealGM Top 100 project, once the GOAT rankings started getting around GOAT ranking number 29 or 30, the competition reached an interesting juxtaposition between past and present...how do you compare MVP-level players with relatively short careers vs superstars from other eras that never quite got that MVP, but that were close to that level and played much longer? 

I'd like to weigh in at least a bit on Stephen Curry, and the perceived difference between players like he and Kevin Durant vs. guys like Scottie Pippen and Jason Kidd (or even Draymond Green, since he's been brought up).

As someone pointed out in the last thread or two, we're reaching a point where there are around 30 perceived "#1" types such that consensus "#2 types" like Pippen may slide out of the top 30. But...I just tend to look askance at the whole #1 vs #2 narrative. There may be some elements of truth in these designations, I'm not weighing in on that...but I feel like there is definitely an artificial boost or decrement that some players get based on style of play (especially scoring, in different ways) that does not in any way fit what I perceive based on analysis of impact approaches through history (to whatever level is available).

Bring it to Durant and Curry. For both, the prevailing argument for their inclusion so high is that they are "true #1" types that have the accolades (MVPs) and team success, which makes them just inherently more valuable than some of the other players considered here. SO much more valuable, in fact, that them having shorter (or even dramatically shorter) resumes is counteracted by how dominant they are.

Only...when I look at impact, I don't see that level of dominance for them. And while there is push-back (as always) about how good of a job the impact stats actually do, I would point out that the other players of the databall era that are considered to have GOAT-level peaks (LeBron, Shaq, Duncan) ALSO have RAPM footprints much more impressive than anything we've seen from Curry or Durant. Dirk and KG have much more impressive impact footprints than anything we've seen from Curry or Durant. Kobe's impact has tended to measure out as slightly higher/comparable to the absolute best that we've seen from Durant, but Kobe did it a heck of a lot longer. Their impacts have measured out more similarly to guys like Paul, Nash, or Kidd...only again, they did it for way shorter.

So. I'm forced to ask myself...is there some kind of fluke reason for why Durant and/or Curry measure out as clearly great (peaking at top-5 in NBA for given season) but not all-time the way that the other GOATs of the databall era have? Remember, the argument for their inclusion here is (my paraphrase) that they are all-time great, but for shorter periods...what I'm seeing is that their impacts are one-to-two steps under all-time-great, also for shorter periods. That's a key distinction.

Bringing it to players like Kidd or Pippen, broad terms. All of Curry, Durant, Kidd and Pippen peaked as top-5 (but not #1) in RAPM (or on/off +/- for 1994 - 97) from 1994 to 2016. I went through and tabulated all their finishes, but seem to have not saved/lost that. But for each, they peaked in the #3 - #5 range in the NBA for a given year. Each had a couple of finishes in that range, then others that ranged down into the lower top-10 on out to the 30s range. The difference is, though, guys like Kidd (and presumably Pippen, who in theory should have strong unmeasured seasons pre 1994) had a lot more seasons with impact in that strong range than Durant or Curry do.

So again, for me to put Curry and Durant higher, I have to convince myself that their style of play, their mechanisms of impact, are SO much more valuable that a) it trumps a lot of longevity and b) it's also evident enough that I should ignore that it doesn't show up in the available impact stats.

So, let me go next level a bit, starting with Durant. Is Durant's style of play, the mechanisms of impact for a guy like him, so much beyond what I would expect from some of these other guys? Is he, as a "true #1", just the type that tends to be more impact? Answer...no. Historically, guys like him (wings that are excellent scorers but without another discernible mega skill) have NOT tended to break the impact scale. On offense, Durant's specialty, the biggest impact players have unquestionably been both mega scorers AND mega distributors. ElGee has an article out right now on Nylon Calculus on how offense created tends to be a function of a combination of scoring volume, assists and 3-point range. Durant is very strong at the first and last, but not so much for the middle...AND THE CREATION ASPECT MATTERS! So no, I don't see Durant as the type of offensive GOAT that would necessarily be putting up the top overall impact in the league...which, to me, makes it believable that in fact he never HAS exhibited that kind of impact. Again, when the focus of the pro-Durant argument over some of the other players available is tied directly to him having much higher impact than them but for a shorter time window, then yeah, this type of information will make me question where he was voted in.

But what about Curry? I gave him a secondary vote a few threads back, because my impression is that he DOES have a game approach that might lend itself to higher impact than a guy like Durant. But even so...he's never shown it in the measurements either. And Draymond is the key factor, with Curry. Because, as was laid out a few threads back, according to RAPM it's been Curry AND Draymond that are all-history as a combo, not Curry alone. And it's NOT the case that a great player can't have a great sidekick or great teammates...but in almost every other situation, the GOAT-level player still put up massive numbers and/or separated himself in the impact studies. Shaq had Kobe, but Shaq's RAPM was dominant. MJ had Pippen, but (at least for the mid-late 90s we have data for), MJ was dominating the on/off +/- data. Manu was mentioned as having great RAPMs, and he did, but a) it was more part-time as noted and b) Duncan was still dominant and reaching the top of the RAPM scale anyway. That's not what we see with Curry and Draymond...they measure out almost dead even, with more tie-breakers probably in Draymond's favor, in the numbers.

So, for Curry to have the GOAT impact, the argument has to go the way DocMJ laid out...that he's the one with the outlier skillset, and that the team's success is built around him and thus that Draymond is the side effect. But again...just like with Durant...I'm not sure I see it. Because while yes, Curry does have the type of scoring volume/passing/OMG shooting that should realistically be an offensive juggernaut...Draymond ALSO exhibits the playing style hallmarks of a mega impact player. He's a big man that's a dominant defensive anchor, he's a point- big man, and (relative to his position) he's a spacing threat. That playing style lends itself, through history, to players with outlier and higher-than-expected impacts. And, with the tools we have, Draymond MEASURES OUT with that type of impact. So...I should just ignore that, because Curry is a "true #1" type? I don't see it at all.

I can consider the notion that maybe, in a vacuum, Curry might tend to be more outstanding than Draymond in more situations. It's discussion worthy, and I'm not sure enough of the counter to be arguing Draymond anytime soon. And really, like Durant, I don't have a huge problem with Curry getting attention in this neighborhood. But I also can't just ignore that on their ACTUAL teams, Draymond tends to measure out as just as important as Curry, and there are legitimate reasons to expect this to be a reasonable outcome. Thus, I can't just give Curry bonus points from Draymond's category and assume that his impact was more in the Shaq/Duncan range than the Kobe/Paul range. And this is compounded by the fact that we DO have such a short body of work for Curry...it could be that, when we look back at him in 10 years, it'll be clear that this era really WAS his impact because it stayed robust and Draymond's fell off as time went on. But right NOW, I'm not convinced of that at all. Especially not enough to make him a slam-dunk entry over guys with similar impact footprints that did it for longer.

[hoopslab]

Mock points-based fantasy basketball draft

The NBA season is right around the corner, which means that it’s fantasy draft season. I’ve been participating in experts mock drafts, and will continue to do so ahead of drafting my own leagues. The following is my team from a CBS points-based mock, that was written up on Rotowire. Here is my team, and some of my thoughts as I was making my picks...

The scoring system for this league, was: 1 point per point scored, rebound, block, steal. Two points per assist. As such, there was a bit of a premium on point guards and/or assist generators at other positions. It was also a H2H league. 

I had the sixth pick in a 12-team, snake draft. My picks:

1) Anthony Davis: This was a tough decision. Russell Westbrook, GIannis Antetokounmpo, James Harden, LeBron James and Kevin Durant went 1 - 5. If this were a roto league, Stephen Curry would have been the obvious pick, but in H2H with no bonuses for scoring efficiency or 3-pointers, he dropped a notch in my book. John Wall would have been another player of interest, as he was the biggest volume points/assists guy left on the board. Ultimately, I chose Davis because, when healthy, he’s the big man that puts up video game numbers. His health will always make me nervous, but I’m banking on him being a scarcer commodity in this league, whereas I may be able to get point guards to fill out my roster later on.

2) Kyle Lowry: I really wanted Kyrie Irving to fall to me in the second round. I thought he was a first round talent, but he slid all the way to the fourth pick in the 2nd round. Unfortunately, I was picking seventh. Even so, Lowry is good value. He has nightly 20/10 potential, and really was the last player on the board that could say that. With assists being so valuable, he was an easy pick for me over Paul George, DeMar DeRozan, Kemba Walker, Rudy Gobert or Gordon Hayward (the five picks that immediately followed). 

3) Andre Drummond: By round 3, it was clear to me how quickly the talent falls off in points-based leagues. In roto leagues, the value of 3-pointers, defensive specialists and percentage monsters helps broaden the pool of good options. In points based, by round 3 it was drying up. This was epitomized, to me, by Khris Middleton going at the top of the third round. He’d have been a good pick in roto, but in points based I think him going at 25 was a reach. I took Drummond because he’s a center capable of big volumes of rebounds/points, that appears to be prepared for a bounce-back year, and without the free throw percentage penalty he’s good value. If I had more nerve, I might also have taken Joel Embiid here (he went five picks later), as he’s hands down better...if he’s on the court.

4) Ben Simmons: Speaking of The Process, I popped for his teammate in round four. Simmons is risky because he’s a rookie that had to sit out all of last season injured. That said, he’s a forward that is playing point guard, which means lots of assists at a position that’s not expecting it, and he’s looked great in the preseason so far. This is a bit of a make-or-break pick for my team. 

5) Isaiah Thomas: This is the last pick I’ll go in depth about, but it’s another make-or-break pick. Thomas, last season, put up numbers that would have been worthy of a borderline second round pick in this draft. But, he’s now playing in Cleveland on a much more offensively talented roster, and he’s got this mystery hip injury that will limit him to an unknown extent. If he struggles through injury and an inability to define a space of his own, then this was a stretch pick. If he’s healthy enough to play most of the season at a high level, though, and he settles in as the clear number two option for the Cavs the way that Kyrie Irving was last season, then this would end up being my steal of the draft pick.

The rest of my picks, below, round out my team. 

6) Markelle Fultz 

7) Zach Lavine

8) Zach Randolph

9) Wilson Chandler

10) Jordan Clarkson

11) Michael Kidd-Gilchrist

12) Mason Plumlee

13) Evan Turner

14) Joe Johnson

Generally speaking, I continued my risk taking in hopes of getting difference makers as opposed to playing it safe. I feel that while roto leagues reward safer, strategic picks based on category value, points-based leagues reward risk taking as there’s such a thin-line between bottom player on bench and the free agency wire. Fultz is a combo guard rookie that was the top pick in the draft, the two Zachs are coming off injury or arrest that make them boom or bust, Chandler is a professional scorer that could be underrated here, and Clarkson is another combo guard that will have to fight to earn his spot with new teammates, but that has good volume upside.

[hoopslab]

Snap Impressions: Melo to OKC for Kanter and McDermott

Carmelo Anthony is finally heading out of New York, and to a destination that few had given serious credence to until the last couple of days.

The New York Knicks just traded with the Oklahoma City Thunder:

OKC gets: Carmelo Anthony

Knicks get: Enes Kanter and Doug McDermott

Wow. This trade was JUST announced 10 minutes ago, such that ‘Carmelo Anthony’ is barely trending, at the bottom of the list, the Woj article that announced the trade literally only says this...

...with no trade analysis at all. So, let’s take a crack at breaking down some of the ways this affects these two teams and potentially changes the NBA landscape.

Knicks clearly just wanted to move on

The will-they-or-won’t-they trade Melo theme has been going on for a long time, and clearly there was fatigue on all sides. Anthony had leverage in the process due to his no-trade clause, and also perhaps because the Knicks just needed to move on. They aren’t going to be contenders this year or next anyway, Melo was a distraction and a ball-sink that they didn’t need on or off the court, and it seems that the Knicks felt that the best thing they could do was just take what they could get and get this over with. 

Kanter and Dougie McBuckets are not impact players...maybe Kanter’s offensive talents can mesh well with Kristaps Porzingis, and if so perhaps he becomes a starter for them moving forward...but neither the players nor the pick are dripping with cache. But despite how unpopular the ESPN ranking of Melo in the 60s was, realistically...it’s not all that far off. Melo has been overrated for a long time, and now that he’s getting older he’s just not worth nearly the haul that Denver got from him when they traded him to New York. And it seems that the Knicks finally acknowledged this, and moved on. Build the ship around Porzingis, and see how far he can carry them.

How will OKC make this work?

Russell Westbrook is the MVP after turning in the most ball-dominant/high usage season in NBA history. There was noticeable friction between Westbrook and previous Thunder MVP Kevin Durant, because they both needed the ball and there was only one ball. The Thunder also have already brought in Paul George this offseason, another relatively high-usage scorer, and my impression then was that George was brought in to be Durant-light...and that maybe that ratio could work well next to transcendant Westbrook.

I’m not sure how Melo fits into this mix.

My initial feeling is, for this to work, Melo an George will essentially have to play the two forward slots. Both have great size for a small forward, and in today’s league they can probably get away with one playing the PF. Especially with a rugged, physical big like Steven Adams in the middle. At this moment, without confirmation, I’m assuming that the Thunder line-up for 2018 is:

Westbrook, Andre Roberson, George, Melo and Adams

And actually...as I look at it...that doesn’t look all that bad. Both Adams and Roberson can thrive as role players, with Adams playing big and cleaning the glass while Roberson locks in as the defensive stopper and improving shooter in a 3 and D role. This, then, leaves Westbrook, George and Melo as the main offensive engines of the team.

For this to work, I think that a) Westbrook is going to have to be fine with stepping back his offense to Durant-era levels. He won’t be able to dominate the ball, nor shoot at the same pace/do the heat checks that littered his performance last year. But, I think he should still get enough shots to be on the leaderboard for highest scorers in the league, and if this works best he should also challenge for league lead in assists.

Meanwhile, b) George will also have to accept a lessening in his scoring in exchange for maximizing his other skills. George, kind of like Tracy McGrady back in the day, has the physical ability to be a monster defensive wing that’s also a jack-of-all trades on offense. TMac let a lot of that go and focused on scoring only, and in recent years George has been doing the same. But, now that he’s on a team where there is plenty of scoring, can he go back to maximizing a Pippen-like skillset instead of trying to be Jordan? If he can do that, it could help push the Thunder into a new level of contention.

Because as we know, c) Melo is a scorer. Period. If he’s playing the 4 he can grab some boards, and he’s shown on Olympic teams that he can do some dirty work when called upon, but his primary calling card is iso scoring. This Thunder team, though, will need him to maintain high efficiency scoring when called upon without stopping the ball and breaking the flow of the offense. The Thunder will need him to defer to Westbrook, to improve his efficiency on spot-up 3-pointers, and to show that same Olympic willingness to just be part of the team instead of having it built around him. 

There are a lot of ‘ifs’ for the Thunder. But, if the parts are able to mesh and build a stronger whole, this could be a move that vaults them into serious contention (along with the Rockets and Spurs) to be legitimately dangerous to the Warriors’ Western Conference dynasty. That kind of upside makes this deal worth it for the Thunder, especially if it can in any way influence Westbrook to sign the extension that they’ve desperately wanted him to sign before the season begins.

Once again...looks like a FUN season shaping up!