#post position

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Thoughts On The Florida Derby Post Position Drawings

So the posts drawing for the Florida Derby were this morning and here they are:

Here are some quick highlights and thoughts I'd like to point out:

Post 1 for Shanghai Bobby is o.k., he dealt well with it in the Holy Bull coming in second to Itsmyluckyday while braking the previous track record as well. Though his owners preferred an outside post, I think he'll be fine with the rail as long as he runs with the early speed he's shown in the past.

I think the horse that drew the best post was Itsmyluckyday with post 3. Gulfstream Park is notorious for having an inside post track bias towards speed horses, though luckyday tends to stalk a little he does it towards the very front of the pack so this will be good for him. But because I feel he drew such a nice post, he has no excuses for not at least Placing in the race.

Now to the other favorite in the race, Orb. He's incredibly fast and post 6 should be good for his quick running style. Though he'll have to work a little harder to get to the inside it won't matter given that he tends to stay back a little at first and quickly climbs to the front. Like luckyday, he has no excuse for not at least showing. 

Merit Man will have a tough time if they intend for him to break out fast and set the pace. Post 8 means he'll be working much harder to get to the inside than the other favorites will, by the end of the race he'll have covered 25-30% more ground than the inside post horses. We haven't seen him around two turns yet but this post could really hinder his performance. 

You see that pony in post 4? Pontiff? Has anyone else noticed that he hasn't broken his Maiden yet? If he wins the triple crown, I'm naming my first born child after him. 

This is a great opportunity for Frac Daddy to redeem himself after grabbing a quarter in the Holy Bull. Post 5 is a safe position for him to either move in or stay back and run with the pack. Interested to see how he handles this.

Dale Romans must be very confident about his horse's chances, putting Pick of the Litter in this race after he broke his maiden and has only raced twice in his life. Given that he's only won once in a four field race of maidens from the 5th hole, I don't know how Post 2 will affect him, though it can't be a kiss of death for him completely. 

Time for some self advertising:

I'm probably going to mention this a billion more times before this Saturday but I'll start here. I will be attending the Florida Derby and taking a boat load of pictures, which I will be posting on my Twitter account. Follow me @TRacingCentral to get updates and photos of how the day is going and my thoughts throughout the meet. 

I want to hear what everyone thinks of the post positions for the race! If you want, reply to the post or shoot me a message!

[startinggate]

Derby Draw Time

Now I guess I should get to work on that video and my final picks now that the draw for post position's done. Really, my job hasn't been made any easier... now here they are! (in bold are my Derby Dozen picks):

Daddy Long Legs

Optimizer

Take Charge Indy

Union Rags

Dullahan

Bodemeister

Rousing Sermon

Creative Cause

Trinniberg

Daddy Nose Best

Alpha

Prospective

Went the Day Well

Hansen

Gemologist

El Padrino

Done Talking

Sabercat

I'll Have Another

Liasion

I hope to have the video up by tomorrow, so this will be a long night of writing and editing that intro which will hopefully look good and be DONE. Anyone's Derby pick change with these?

[startinggate]

Handicapping: Belmont Stakes

The 2011 Triple Crown is coming to a close, bookending an interesting yet underwhelming season of three-year-olds. This Saturday, Belmont Park will be hosting the oldest, longest, and most challenging leg of the Triple Crown races, featuring several old foes along with new shooters in the $1 million Belmont Stakes (I). Out of the three legs, this race is significantly easier to handicap since we already have a somewhat good idea of most the runners' strengths and weaknesses and it's more of a question of rating a horse than anything else. Let's take a look at the field, scheduled to 1 1/2 mile (10 furlongs) over the main Belmont track on June 11 with a post time of 6:35 EST.

(Post Position, Horse, Jockey, Trainer, Likely favorite(s) highlighted in bold)

Master of Hounds, Garrett Gomez, Aidan O'Brien.

Stay Thirsty, Javier Castellano, Todd Pletcher.

Ruler On Ice, Jose Valdivia Jr, Kelly Breen.

Santiva, Shaun Bridgmohan, Eddie Kenneally.

Brilliant Speed, Joel Rosario, Tom Albertani.

Nehro, Corey Nakatani, Steve Asmussen.

Monzon, Jose Lezcano, Ignacio Correas IV.

Prime Cut, Edgar Prado, Neil Howard.

Animal Kingdom, John Velazquez, H. Graham Motion.

Mucho Macho Man, Ramon Dominguez, Kathy Ritvo.

Isn't He Perfect, Rajiv Maragh, Doodnauth Shivmangal.

Shackleford, Jesus Castanon, Dale Romans.

Animal Kingdom comes off his Kentucky Derby win and Preakness place, which fell to Shackleford. Nehro's had a good rest after a promising Kentucky Derby placing and looks to avenge his loss here as a horse who likes the distance. Master of Hounds, Stay Thirsty, Santiva, Brilliant Speed, and Mucho Macho Man all return from the Derby. Out of the new shooters, Prime Cut has the most promise following a third place in the Peter Pan at Belmont and a second in the Lexington Stakes.

Animal Kingdom - Nehro - Santiva

Animal Kingdom is clearly the most talented horse of the bunch, and seeing as he's okay and practiced with the Belmont track, I think he'll gun to the front and stay put with his closing position and tactical late speed. Nehro will probably be held back longer than in the Derby and unleash a run as soon as Animal Kingdom moves up. Shackleford is too much speed to have a shot here, and out of the others lurking, I gotta say Santiva. As much as I disliked him going into the Derby, he would have done better than sixth had he been given more running room and a cleaner trip. For a superfecta, I'd certainly add Master of Hounds-- another distance lover-- without hesitation.