Oka but what if Mary goes back to work for Jim in 4x01 or hides from him or soemthing? She totally sent Moriarty a big FU for ratting her out by shooting his precious Sherlock. Shouldn't she run and hide because I can't imagine Moriarty forgiving her.
You’re right; Mary’s definitely not happy to have Jim back in the game full time. Jim coming back into the open means her whole life - that she almost lost when John walked out for six months and now just got back - is about to go to shit. Once Jim is back in the open, it’s only a matter of time before he tells John that she works for him, and that she knew the whole time that Sherlock was alive and didn’t tell John, and then John’s going to leave her. Her relationship has an expiration date, and it’s whenever Jim decides. After shooting Sherlock, she probably also knows her life has an expiration date - that’s also whenever Jim decides.
However, I don’t think hiding would do Mary much good - I’m sure Jim could find her, and I’m sure Mary knows that. I think she’s still with John because:
She loves John (albeit selfishly) and wants to keep him/this life
Jim would be even more pissed at her if she left John now (the fact that Jim thinks John took Mary back is probably the only thing keeping Jim from killing her right now)
Hiding from Jim won’t do her much good because he’ll find her
She can’t get John to hide with her while Sherlock is alive because John won’t leave Sherlock
However, if Mary stays in London where the action is, she has an opportunity to get everything she wants - albeit a risky one:
The only way that Mary can stay alive and out of jail and keep John is to kill both Sherlock and Jim (and probably Jim’s other assassins, since I’d bet that Jim has them ready to take a hit on Mary if she tries anything, and possibly Mycroft, depending on how powerful she thinks Mycroft is). Killing Sherlock and Jim is not exactly an easy task, particularly because now John is going to be very suspicious if Sherlock suddenly gets sniped. So Mary’s best option is probably to make it look like Jim and Sherlock killed each other, meaning she’ll have to kill them at pretty much the exact same time, which again makes it more difficult. She probably also has to kill at least Jim from a close range, not with a riffle, since I doubt Sherlock is great with a sniper riffle. Definitely not easy - but her only option to get out of her current situation alive and out of jail.
I think this is basically going to be Mary’s plan in 4x3. As soon as Jim decides to let the people who want to hurt Mary off the leash, Mary needs to put this plan into action: kill Sherlock, kill Jim, kill as many of the people after her as she can, and get out of London with John. Unfortunately for Mary - though fortunately for us - most of that isn’t going to work. The only part that I think will go well for Mary is killing the people after her. I think Mary will shoot at Sherlock - and John will take the bullet - and this is how we’ll get the The Three Garridebs.
However, I think it’s at least possible that Mary disappears in 4x1, even if I don’t think it’s that likely. If she were to disappear, I think it would be at the end of 4x1, as a cliffhanger, and it wouldn’t be clear if she left voluntarily or was kidnapped (AKA it’s still not clear if she’s a good guy or a villain). I don’t think Mary will be very involved in 4x1, so basically Sherlock and John would just return to the house/hospital/somewhere at the end to find out that Mary’s gone. However, this does raise some problems:
1) Why does Mary come back in 4x3? If she disappears in 4x1, then we still have to deal with her as a villain eventually. Either she comes back voluntarily; or someone brings her back; or Sherlock and John find her. If she’s brought back, the person doing the bringing is either Mycroft or Jim, both of whom would’ve just killed her/sent her to jail instead of bringing her back to cause more damage. If she left, why would she come back voluntarily?
2) Baby Watson - who has it, where is it? If Mary has already given birth at this point, then presumably the baby would live with John and Sherlock in Baker Street while they were looking for Mary, which I don’t think Mofftisson will do because I think they want to get rid of Baby Watson, and so no one (audience or characters) can be very attached to it. If Mary has not given birth when she disappears, when she returns, who has Baby Watson? Did she bring it back with her, and if so, why? Because it needs to return and be involved in the plot; Sherlock and John won’t just forget about it. So did Jim take it? Did Mary take it with her? Is it fake in this situation? Because then Sherlock and John spent a whole season looking for a baby … that turns out not to be real. I think Mofftisson probably can’t write the baby out (David’s, fake, dead, etc) if Sherlock and John have to spend the whole season looking for it, because then it’s a real character that the audience and the characters are invested in. Then we have a connection between John and Baby Watson, which makes it difficult to get rid of the baby. Which would lead to parentlock, which mild-lunacy has outlined as very unlikely.
3) One would like to think that once Mary disappeared, Sherlock and John would finally tell each other that they both hate her, which would ruin a lot of emotional drama later on in the season. “Okay, well, now that she’s gone, I suppose I should probably tell you that I was lying about the surgery bit?” “Yeah, I actually read the flash drive and never forgave her. Well, done with that!”
4) Is it reasonable to think that John wouldn’t work out that Mary works/worked for Jim if she disappears immediately after Jim returns? Because I don’t think John or the audience can figure that out yet, because again, that takes a lot of drama and excitement away from later in the season.
5) What are they doing in 4x2? I don’t think Mary leaving at the end of 4x1 would change much of anything about 4x1 or 4x3, but what are Sherlock and John doing in 4x2? Presumably they’re looking for Mary - and possibly the baby - so they go on some kind of case that they think leads to Mary but doesn’t. What is the point of this case - not the “case,” obviously, but the whole episode/case should tell you something about Sherlock and John - but what? If Mary’s still around in 4x2, then I think 4x2 will be a very painful example of just how much Johnlockary doesn’t work. I think it’ll be a fun crime-solving threesome team with everyone being pals on the surface - but with infinite sniping and tension beneath, to tell you how much John and Sherlock both hate Mary. So if Mary’s not there, then there’s a different point. What is it?
So it’s not that I think that Mary can’t leave; I just question how it would actually work.