Mission trip to Peru, 2011. Just dumping some old stuff I never posted. I wonder if at the time Jill and Jana had any inkling that Meagan would be part of their extended family.
Also those ladies don’t look too excited about their Duggar family publicity photo Bible tracts. Or this wasn’t a time when they wanted their picture taken.
By Request: How Many Children for Priscilla + David ?
AKA—Keeping up w/: David + Priscilla (Keller) Waller
ICYMI—Yesterday, Priscilla Waller (née Keller), Anna Duggar’s sister, announced on Instagram that she is expecting her fourth child with husband David. There’s a post about it on their blog, DavidLovesPricilla.com, too.
Since the news, three readers—2 Anons, plus @joyfullytakingbirthcontrol—have sent in Asks about Priscilla...
Lucky for y’all, I’ve got a servants heart. Your request is my assignment! Here’s the data you wanted... After the jump.
At this point, you might be asking yourself...
Who The F*%# is Priscilla Waller ?
Born July 3, 1986, Priscilla Lynn Waller (née Keller) is Michael + Suzette Keller’s fourth child, and third daughter. Priscilla is ~2 Years older than her sister, Anna Renée, who now well–known as Joshua Duggar’s wife. Like Anna, Priscilla was raised in a fundamentalist, evangelical family, which means exactly what you’d expect—homeschooling, rigid gender roles, a modest dress code, and parent–supervised ‘courtship’ in lieu of dating. While some of the Keller Children have left fundamentalism as adults, Priscilla is not part of this group.
Priscilla + David— (See DavidLovesPriscilla.com—“Priscilla’s Story”)
In September 2007, Priscilla and Anna attended Journey to The Heart—a youth retreat and brainwashing session, brought to you by Gothard’s Institute in Basic Life Principles (IBLP). Apparently, Priscilla loved the experience, and went on to lead similar ‘Journeys’ for IBLP over the next few years. Her role in the program is actually how she met David, since he was also working at IBLP, at the time.
On September 12, 2011, David Walled called Mike Keller, and asked permission to pursue a relationship with Priscilla. Priscilla was quite happy about this. She accepted David’s formal ‘courtposal’ very shortly after, on September 20, 2011, and—less than two months later—accepted his actual proposal, as well. David + Priscilla married in Florida on February 4, 2012. (Click for tons of photos!)
... and Their Quiver—
So far, after six years of marriage, the Waller’s Quiver is three–strong. Waller #4, due in “late September” 2018, will join older brothers Paul William (b. 2013) and Phillip Andrew (b. 2016), and an older sister, Davia Lynn (b. 2014).
Onward, to the data!
How Many Children Will Priscilla + David Have ?
Fertility—
As I said above, Priscilla’s DOB is July 3, 1986. Typically, I assume non–Duggar, non–Bates women to be fertile to Age 40, and I’ll do that here, as well. (I swear, I wanted to do this using Suzette Keller’s data, but I couldn’t find a good source for her DOB or the DOB of her last child, David Nathaniel. So that didn’t work.) Assuming Priscilla is fertile to Age 40, her last chance to have a baby will be on July 3, 2026. She married David on February 4, 2012, so that gives her a Total Marital Fertility (TMT) of 5,263 Days. As of today, April 13, 2018, Priscilla has 3,003 Days of Remaining Fertility—i.e., 57.1% of her TMT.
Right away, you’ll notice that Priscilla’s TMT is substantially less than that of the Duggars (and Bateses) or their In–Laws. Priscilla’s sister, Anna, actually had the lowest TMT of any Duggar or Duggar DIL, to date; however, even she had 7,210 Fertile Days to work with—and that’s ~37% more than Priscilla! Unsurprisingly, Priscilla’s low TMT is a direct result of her marrying ‘late,’ by QF standards. On her wedding day, Priscilla was 25.59 Years old.
Necessary Pace—
Let’s say Priscilla wants to keep up with Michelle or Kelly Jo. Could she do it? In a word: Hell no. Her Initial Necessary Pace For 19 wouldn’t been 1 Child Every 277 Days. A human pregnancy lasts ~280 Days... So... Yeah.
What about keeping up with her own mother, Suzette? Suzette Keller's quiver contained 8 Children—Esther, Rebekah, Daniel, Priscilla, Anna, ‘Suze,’ Nathan, and Daniel. Based on Priscilla’s TMT, her Initial Necessary Pace For 8 was a very manageable 1 Child Every 657 Days. Unfortunately, with only 3 Children so far, and 3,003 Fertile Days left, Priscilla is behind even this relatively leisurely schedule: Her Current Necessary Pace for 8 is 1 Child Every 600 Days.
Pace So Far—
As I said, the Wallers have 3 Children as of April 2018. Their first, Paul William, arrived on March 16, 2013, exactly 406 Days after the Waller’s nuptials. Davia Lynn, Paul’s little sister, arrived 606 Days later, on November 12, 2014. Finally, Phillip Andrew was born 707 Days after that, on October 19, 2016. Crunching the numbers, the Wallers’ median spacing is 606 Days. One Anon said in her Ask that Priscilla is really consistent but, with an Adjusted MAD of 147 Days, I respectfully disagree! She’s definitely no Kelly Jo (MAD of 46 Days), and she’s also a lot less consistent than little sister Anna (MAD of 71 Days). Based on all of this, we can guess that future Wallers will be 459—753 Days apart.
Speaking of Anna, let’s compare her to Priscilla! So far, Anna’s median spacing is 718 Days—or, 18.5% longer than Priscilla’s. However, Anna’s MAD (71 Days) is 51% less than Priscilla’s, indicating she is far more consistent. All in all, data suggests Anna’s spacing is generally 647 to 789 Days. Thus, while a child born ‘early’ to Anna will arrive ~6 Months later than one that’s ‘early’ for Priscilla, the two sisters’ ‘late’ babies are only 5 Weeks apart.
So... How Many Children For The Wallers?
Based on all the data, it looks like the Wallers will be able to add 3.99—6.54 to their quiver, before Priscilla’s assumed infertility date. That'll give them a grand total of 7—10 Children.
Duggar friend, family and fan photos, 2010. Including a candid shot taken by a fan who spotted Jessa in a thrift store. (Other pics from Suze Keller, Amy Jordan, another unknown fan and Duggar family blog.) Just trying to get rid of some stuff.
