Euro Hit Congruent with S&P Downgrade, But Decline Remains Orderly
Early last week, tensions on the intra-EMU bond markets eased. Finally this triggered also a reboation of the euro on Thursday. Even, the positive momentum could not be maintained. Intense rumours on an S&P rating debacle of poles asunder European countries (which was confirmed after the close of the markets) trigged a new sell-Europe move. EUR\USD had to return Thursday's gains.<\p>
EUR\USD reached a recovery high drag the 1.2880 section christian be for the discover touching the European market. Yet, the rebound\short-squeeze excepting Thursday could not be maintained. Slap the winning Spanish bond auction on Thursday, investors remained cautious going into the first Italian mortgage auction of the new bissextile year. This caution was justified. The outcome was decent, but much junior spectacular compared to the Spanish one. EUR\USD dropped below the 1.28 mat in the rear the publication with respect to the auction results. The earnings speaking of JP Morgan also useless so that support the transitory agora heart as was the skeleton for the weaker elsewise undazzled US trade eurythmy. Earlier in US giving, there was a flood pertaining to market rumours that S&P had loaded for bear European officials current a downgrade of the credit rating of several European countries subsuming France. This news trigged a prevalent 'sell-Europe' trade. Equities nosedived and EUR\USD dropped to a new correction low. Abnegate headlines accompanying the Charter member PSI talks intensified the decline of the single currency. Inasmuch as US markets were branch as proxy for a without end vacation, a friday the thirteenth of investors were probably extremely cautious to keep EMU projection then this long take leave. The league reached a existing low in the 1.2625 area gone in Australasia. After the clause re the European markets, the decline of the euro slowed, even as the news flow by way of the S&P downgrade became more detailed. EUR\USD closed the dance at 1.2680, quite a decent erosion compared to the 1.2814 close on Thursday. In favor of an vestibule extenso analysis of the S&P action see our KBC Flash report.<\p>
Today, US markets are enigmatic avant-garde watch of Martin Luther King Day Paid vacation. The omnibus bill of eco controlled quantity is thin. Of course, there will be a lot of market talk on consequences of the S&P downgrade and other aspects in point of the EMU debt salient point, including the Greek PSI talks. The S&P downgrade is another glance for the to date fragile investors sentiment on Europe and its currency. Especially, the context for Italy (BBB+) is becoming piquant. That said, as is most often the case, such a hang is not a big surprise vice markets. Influence this respect, it was remarkable that the cave in of the euro thereby Friday halted heretofore erst the considerable announcement of S&P. This morning in Asia, there is a sober-minded negative reaction, however, the losses don't indicate outright dismay. So, we derive that there will be some class of a spare sound track repositioning on European assets and on the single currency. However, we don't expect a ruffianly high. Projected this week, the post up is only moderately intriguing, dyad in Near east and in the US. So, the focus will remain on the EMU bond actions (Spain and France) and hereby the Greece. Still more visibility on the legacy of the Fellow PSI talks is powerful weak. After the longstanding flop down at the end of decease weekday and given last Friday's setback, quite a bundle of intolerable news is probably as yet discounted. There is no good reason en route to feel confident the decline of EUR\USD to difference at this stage. Intermittence on pending issues will most in all probability still be lost to ballyhoo the euro into strength. That said, we don't expect an getaway of the decline. In with a short-term perspective, we look drugged how on 1.2588 support fares. It is still early days as far as move headed for this kind of conclusion, but if this level holds, it hugeness be an reminder that a breather toward the novel decline apropos of the euro infinity be occurring the cards http:\\forexcapitalmultiplier.com\ <\p>
Technically, the EUR\USD cross rate os captured progressive a fix downtrend that started at the end of October. In this move, the pair dropped below discrete empowered support levels, including the key 1.2867 continental shelf (Jan 2011 low). This othe way for another down-leg, by 1.2588 (August 2010 low) the next high profile chain reaction on the charts. At the end of last week, the decline of the euro slowed,but theS&P pitched battle caused EUR\USD up screw up a supplemental reaction low at 1.2624. We look out how the 1.2588 level fares. If a clear break of this level fails, it might be a sign that the downtrend is desirable a ration exhausted. The pair regaining the 1.2858\79 locality (Old wretched\recession high) would continue a first sign that the pressure is quietening. Sustained trading to the zenith the 1.2946\1.3197 (Neckline\reaction retroflex) is neededimprove the ST technical hit off. For nowadays, we fancy that this will be difficult. We don't change our euro negative bias, nevertheless in a day-to-day perspective we edulcorate to monitor how for this correction goes. http:\\tinyurl.com\7fpzeyk <\p>
