#rogers 12

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Courtney has in the past said that she "only" wants 12 children, will the Predictor stop predicting future pregnancies once the newest baby is born?

Come on… You really think she’s going to stop?

No, the Predictor won’t stop predicting after #12.

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Courtney is ~39 Weeks Along

Based on an Approximate Due Date (ADD) of March 5, 2022.

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Who All is Pregnant, Again?

It’s Kind of Hard to Keep Track.

Here’s the full list, in [Approximate] Due Date order—

Nurie (Rodrigues) Keller, with Keller–Rodrigues #1.  She’s due October 12.  The Pregnancy Announcement occurred on February 22, 2021, and the Sex Reveal occurred on June 17, 2021.  It’s a boy.

Anna (Keller) Duggar, with Duggar–Keller #7.  She announced on April 23.  She is due “this Fall,” and that’s all we know.  Duggar Data is using November 20, 2021 as a very speculative Approximate Due Date (ADD).  (It’s based on Anna’s typical Gestational Age at Announcement.)  A Sex Reveal accompanied the Pregnancy Announcement.  It’s a girl. 

Kristen Young, notable Duggar Adjacent, with Young #4.  Kristen went public with the pregnancy on April 25, and did a Sex Reveal on August 1.  (It’s a girl.)  Kristen’s Due Date is in December; Duggar Data is using and ADD of December 16, 2021.

Priscilla (Keller) Waller, with Pecan / Waller #6.  She announced (via YouTube) on August 17.  She’s due in January, possibly “mid–January” or “late January.”  Duggar Data is using an ADD of January 22.  No Sex Reveal yet, though one is apparently planned.

Jennifer (Hartono) Toto, notable Duggar Adjacent, with Toto #1.  Jenni announced on August 14, mere months after her marriage to Josh Toto.  She posted her sonogram, which reveals her Due Date as February 16, 2022.  No Sex Reveal yet.  

Erin (Bates) Paine, with Paine #5.  Her pregnancy is “a huge miracle,” since Erin believed recent ovarian surgeries had rendered her infertile.  She announced via People on August 24.  Erin expects to give birth in January, but is likely due in February.  Duggar Data is using an ADD of February 22, 2022.  No Sex Reveal yet.

Courtney Rogers, with Rogers #12.  She teased the pregnancy in July, and confirmed it on August 7th.  She’s due in Early March; Duggar Data is using an ADD of March 5, 2022.  No Sex Reveal yet.

Carlin (Bates) Stewart, with Stewart #2.  She’s apparently due in April.  Duggar Data is using an ADD of April 9, 2022.  She just announced her pregnancy on Monday (August 31) via E! News.  No Sex Reveal yet, as she’s not far enough along.

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Courtney is ~38 Weeks Along

Based on an Approximate Due Date (ADD) of March 5, 2022.

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Rogers #12 is “Term,” As of Today!

Based on an Approximate Due Date (ADD) of March 5, 2022.

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Rogers #12 is On The Way

Now That We Have Approximate Due Date...  Get The Data Here!

On August 7, 2021, Courtney Rogers confirmed (via this Instagram Post) that she’s pregnant yet again.  Rogers #12 is on the way!  Courtney kept us in the dark about her Due Date until August 30, which delayed this Post.  Now that she finally revealed that she is due in “the first part of March, 2022,” we have enough to crunch the numbers.  Hurray!

Just ahead, answers to all of these questions...

Do we know Courtney’s Due Date, or can we approximate it?

Should we expect a Sex Reveal and, if so, when?

Given that Due Date, what is Rogers #12′s Projected DOB?

Were the Rogerses early, late, or what?

What’s the impact on the Rogerses’ PP and ESOQ?

When is Rogers #13 expected to arrive, if ever?

Approximate Due Date (ADD)

Based on this Instagram Story (8–30–21), it appears Courtney is due w/ Rogers #12 in Early March 2022.  Consistent with my typical rule, Duggar Data translates “Early March 2022” into an Approximate Due Date (ADD) of March 5, 2022.

Will They Do A Sex Reveal, Pre–Birth?

Probably.  Duggar Data has Sex Reveal data for all but 2 Rogerses—Clint (#1) and Cade (#3)—and believes those two didn’t have pre–birth Sex Reveals.  All the rest of them did at, on average, 138 Days Along.

Given an ADD of March 5, 2022, Courtney will be 138 Days Along—and thus, we can expect the Sex Reveal—on October 14, 2022.  We’ll see!

Projected DOB

Excluding 2 Premature Deliveries (1 Due to Placenta Previa, 1 Due to Twins), it is ‘typical’ for Courtney to deliver 4 Days Late, vs. her Due Date.  That—along with Courtney’s ADD of March 5, 2022—gives Rogers #12 a Projected DOB of March 9, 2022.

Early, Late, or What?

Slightly Late.  Post–Caris (#11), Courtney + Christopher’s Procreative Pace (PP) was 407 Days (1 Child Every 13.4 Months).  Given that, Rogers #12 was initially expected to arrive on January 9, 2022.  But, now that they’ve announced, the calculated Projected DOB is actually March 9, 2022—i.e., 2 Months Later than initially forecast.  Doing the math, they’re 59 Days Late.

Through Caris, Courtney’s Standard Deviation (SD) of Child Spacing was 69 Days.  Doing the math again, 59 Days Late is <1 SD Late (0.85 SD).  This falls well within the normal range...  But, technically, it’s late.

They’re also late in terms of Gestational Age at Announcement.  Prior to their latest Pregnancy Announcement, Courtney + Christopher typically revealed a pregnancy when Courtney was 51 Days Along.  But...  This time around, they waited until she was ~70 Days Along.  So...  In terms of Timing of Pregnancy Announcement, they were 19 Days (and 0.40 SD) Late.  Again, it’s well within the normal range, but technically late.

Effect on Procreative Pace / ESOQ

After Caris, the Rogerses Procreative Pace (PP) was 407 Days (or 1 Child / 13.4 Months), and—assuming Courtney is fertile to Age 40—their Estimated Size of Quiver (ESOQ) was 14 Children.

Factoring in Rogers #12′s tentative data, their PP shifts to 413 Days (6 Days Slower), or 1 Child Every 13.6 Months, and their ESOQ remains 14 Children (No Change).  (That’s assuming, per Duggar Data’s default rule, that Chris + Courtney will be fertile until her 40th Birthday.  For each additional year that she’s fertile beyond that, she’ll have time to produce 0.88 Child.)

When To Expect Rogers #13

This probably won’t be Courtney’s last child.  As of August 2021, she still only 37 Years Old—and thus, likely has a few more years of fertility.  (And, possibly more than a few...  Kelly Jo Bates had her Final Child at >Age 45!)

Given Courtney + Christopher’s data, here’s what the Predictor expects, with regard to Rogers #13—

Baby News   September 5, 2022

Sex Reveal   December 1, 2022   

Due Date   April 22, 2023   

Projected DOB   April 26, 2023

Anyway...  Here’s to hoping that Courtney’s latest pregnancy and birth will go smoothly, especially after what happened last time. 

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Courtney Rogers's instagram bio has a pregnant emoji. Pretty sure that wasn't there last week!

Oh, snap! The plot thickens! I won't consider this an announcement, but I bet one is coming... She has been hinting at being pregnant all week, and she's overdue.

ETA   Courtney announces at 49 Days Along, on average...  If we did treat this as an announcement, we could estimate that she is due on March 22, 2022.

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Courtney Enters The 3rd Trimester!

Based on an Approximate Due Date (ADD) of March 5, 2022, Courtney is now ~28 Weeks Along w/ Rogers #12—and thus, in her 3rd Trimester.