On March 27, 2022, Carlin (Bates) + Evan Stewart welcomed their 2nd Child + 1st Son, Zade Patrick Stewart, into the world. He was born at the University of Tennessee Medical Center in Knoxville. He was 6 Pounds, 12 Ounces (3.1 Kilograms) and 20 Inches (51 Centimeters).
Carlin + Evan announced the birth via Instagram on March 27th, the day Zade was born. They announced his name the following day. They later released a Birth Video on YouTube. [ Permalinks—Birth Announcement, Name Reveal ]
Read on for Zade’s impact on Carlin + Evan’s and the Bates Data!
Pregnancy Announcement Timing
Carlin + Evan announced Pregnancy #2 via E! News on August 30, 2021. With her Due Date of April 9, 2022, Carlin was just 58 Days Along (8 Weeks, 1 Day), when they announced.
Carlin has has 1 Prior [Known] Pregnancy. With Pregnancy #1, she announced much, much later, at 113 Days Along (16 Weeks, 1 Day). Taking the average, it is now typical for Carlin + Evan to announce at 86 Days Along (or 12 Weeks, 2 Days).
Sex / Name Reveal Timing
The Stewart–Bateses did a Sex Reveal for Baby #2 via YouTube on November 21, 2021. Carlin’s Due Date, again, was April 9, 2022. So, she was 141 Days Along (20 Weeks, 1 Day), on the day of the Sex Reveal.
With Layla (#1), Carlin + Evan did a Sex Reveal at 144 Days Along. (Which is pretty dang close to 141 Days Along!) Taking an average, it is now typical for Carlin + Evan to do a Sex Reveal at 142.5 143 Days Along (~20.5 Weeks).
Delivery vs. Due Date
Zade was due on April 9, 2022, but arrived 13 Days Early, on March 27, 2022.
Like many of her sisters, Carlin delivers early for medical reasons. With Layla, she delivered 18 Days Early. (Carlin was due on February 18, 2020, and Layla was born on January 31.) (Fun Fact—So far, Carlin’s Due Date has failed even to predict what month she’ll give birth.) Averaging the two, it’s now typical for Bates–Stewarts to be born 15.5 16 Days Early (at 37 Weeks, 5 Days Along).
Effect on the Bates 2nd Child Multiplier
Carlin + Evan had an incredibly fast Marriage–to–Firstborn Spacing (251 Days). Their Layla–to–Zade Spacing is quite a bit longer, at 786 Days. (Layla’s DOB is January 31, 2020, and Zade’s is 786 Days Later on March 27, 2022.) When we compare them, their 2nd Spacing is 3.1315x longer than their 1st Spacing.
This is a record–setting 2nd Child Multiplier; it’s longer than any Bates Couple, and actually any Predictor Couple. Across all Predictor People, Carlin + Evan are, so far, the only couple with a 2nd Child Multiplier >3x. Overall, 1.3745x is typical. (That’s for all Predictor Couples.) Among Bateses, excluding Carlin + Evan, 1.6299x is typical. When we factor Carlin + Evan’s data in, that shifts to 1.7754x (+9%). As a result, the Predictor slow down its 2nd Child forecasts a bit. (Hey, it’s something!)
Effect on Procreative Pace / ESOQ
Now that Carlin + Evan have a non–Firstborn, they’ve got non–Firstborn Data. You know what that means! That’s the data that determines their Procreative Pace (PP), going forward.
So far, obviously, they only have one datapoint, their Layla–to–Zade Spacing. With nothing to average together, their Layla–to–Zade Spacing (786 Days, or 25.8 Months) becomes their Procreative Pace (PP), for the time being.
At this new pace, Carlin + Evan’s ESOQ is 12 Children. That’s down from the wacko estimate of 22 Children that the Predictor got immediately after Layla’s birth. (Their really short Firstborn Spacing is to blame for those crazy results!)
When To Expect Stewart–Bates #3
As of May 12, 2022, here’s what the Predictor is forecasting—
Baby News November 24, 2023 (Day After Thanksgiving)
Sex Reveal January 21, 2024
Due Date June 6, 2024
Birth Date May 21, 2024
On the Projected DOB, Layla would be 4 Years Old and Zade would be 2.
duggar-spivey 1 announced in june (born dec 21/jan 22) (a boy)
duggar-swanson 2 announced in august (born feb 22) (a boy)
stewart 2 announced in august (born feb 22) (a boy)
forsyth 3 announced in october (born early apr 22) (a boy)
MAYBE dillard 3 announced in late oct/early nov (born may 22) (probably a boy)
duggar-nakatsu 1 announced around thanksgiving (born may 22) (a girl)
clark 1 announced around christmas (born june 22) (a girl)
plus a new year announcement from john and abbie ahead of a may birth (boy), a new year announcement for a june birth from joseph and kendra (girl), and a feb 22 announcement for a july birth (boy) for nathan and esther.
Today (August 30, 2021), Carlin (Bates) + Evan Stewart announced Carlin’s 2nd Pregnancy. Apparently, Stew #2 will arrive in 2022! E! Online got the exclusive, which Carlin + Evan quickly followed up with a YouTube vlog, documenting the day Carlin found out she was pregnant, and with an Instagram Post on Carlin’s account. (Permalink.) Carlin said via Instagram and via E! News—
“Let the baby shopping adventures, food cravings, morning (sometimes all day) sickness, and midnight snacks begin! Every single part of the baby journey is worth it, and being parents is the best part of our story! Layla bug is the absolute joy of our lives and we can’t wait to see her become a big sister. Our new addition to the crew is honestly more exciting than we can truly express in words. Thank you all for your love, support, encouragement, and prayers.”
Taking a drastically more fundie tone, Carlin also told E! Online: “Children are definitely a gift from God, and we are so thankful .... We never want to take any moment of the life God has blessed us with for granted.”
Read on for a full data analysis!
Approximate Due Date (ADD)
They haven’t shared much, thus far; however, with available evidence, Duggar Data has narrowed down the Due Date Range to ~April 5–13, 2022. Until and unless more precise data is provided, Duggar Data will be using April 9, 2022 as Carlin’s Approximate Due Date (ADD).
[ Link to Prior Post, Discussing Available Evidence re: Carlin’s Due Date ]
Will They Do A Sex Reveal? When?
With Layla Rae (Stewart #1), Carlin + Evan did do a Sex Reveal, pre–birth. At the time, Carlin was 144 Days (or, 20 Weeks, 4 Days) Along. With her ADD of April 9, 2022, Carlin will be exactly 144 Days Along on November 24, 2022—i.e., “Thanksgiving Eve.” Maybe they’ll do a Turkey Day–themed reveal!
Projected Date of Birth (PDOB)
Layla was due on February 18, 2020, but actually arrived on January 31, 2020 (18 Days Early). Carlin was induced with Layla; however, Duggar Data will not be excluding Layla’s Delivery vs. Due Date data, simply due to the induction... It’s Carlin’s only data point, and it’s quite possible that similar problems might cause another early delivery for Stewart #2.
So... Assuming Stewart #2 is also 18 Days Early, and is due on April 9, 2022, his or her PDOB is March 22, 2022.
Early, Late, or What?
Definitely Late. After Layla’s birth, the Predictor used the Bateses 2nd Child Multiplier to fix Carlin + Evan’s Procreative Pace (PP) at 402 Days initially, and later at 436 Days (Due to Data from Josie’s Miscarriage), where it stayed until they became ‘late’ to announce in November 2020. With a 436–Day Spacing, their Secondborn would’ve arrived on April 11, 2021.
... but, apparently, he or she isn’t actually going to arrive until March 22, 2022. That’s 345 Days Late. Among Bates Couples, 2nd Child Spacings vary by a Standard Deviation (SD) of 132 Days. Doing the math... Stewart #2 is a little over 2.6 SDs Late. That’s pretty damn late. Assuming a normal distribution, only about 5% of all data points can be expected to be that late or later.
But, in terms of Gestational Age at Pregnancy Announcement, they’re actually early—55 Days Early, to be exact. They waited ‘til Carlin was 113 Days Along before announcing Layla. This time around, they announced at ~Day 58.
Impact on PP, ESOQ
Immediately after Layla’s birth, Carlin + Evan’s Procreative Pace (PP) was 402 Days and their Estimated Size of Quiver (ESOQ) was 22 Children. Subsequent data later shifted their PP to 436 Days, and they failed to announce on–time at that PP. As of the last ESOQ, their tardiness in announcing Pregnancy #2 had driven their ESOQ down to 13 Children.
Following today’s Baby News, Carlin + Evan’s PP shifted to 781 Days (1 Child Every 25.7 Months), and their ESOQ dropped once again to 12 Children. It is worth noting that, at 781 Days, Carlin + Evan’s PP is the slowest out of all the Bates Couples! (Second slowest is Zach + Whitney, with a PP of 717 Days.) This is pretty incredible, since their Marriage–to–Firstborn was the fastest, by far. Glad that trend hasn’t continued!
When To Expect Stewart #3
As of August 30, 2021, here’s what the Predictor is forecasting—
Breaking News Carlin (Bates) + Evan Stewart just announced via E! News that they’re expecting their 2nd Child in 2022. They told the tabloid—
“Children are definitely a gift from God, and we are so thankful for our little bundles. ... We never want to take any moment of the life God has blessed us with for granted. Our new addition to the crew is honestly more exciting than we can truly express in words.”
