Back to the 3 under 3 years question, are there any couples who have one or two kids who are predicted to announce a third in under three years other than Joe and Kendra?
[ Follow–Up to This Post ]
Just to be clear, Joe + Kendra actually aren’t expected to announce Pregnancy #3 by their 3rd Anniversary. Their 3rd Anniversary is September 8, 2020. Their 3rd Pregnancy Announcement is due on September 20, 2020. Close, but even they aren’t expected to pull it off!
As for your Ask... Using Predictor 2020′s algorithm, I looked back to see if any of the couples would’ve been expected to announce Pregnancy #3 by their 3rd Anniversary, but failed to do so. No one was; however, Jessa + Ben came very close. They initially would’ve been due to reveal Pregnancy #3 on November 9, 2017—i.e., just 8 Days after their 3rd Anniversary. Obviously, that didn’t end up happening, though!
Jessa + Ben Seewald welcomed their latest addition, Ivy Jane—their 3rd Child and 1st Daughter—on Sunday, May 26, 2019. Ivy arrived at home at 5:57 PM, after just 3.5 Hours of labor. (Jessa’s shortest yet! She labored with Spurgeon for 48 Hours, and with Henry for ~4.5 Hours.)
How did Ivy affect the Seewald’s Data and the Overall Duggar Data for...
Pregnancy Announcement Timing
Timeliness of Birth
Birthweight + Length
Timing of Birth Announcement
Child Spacing + ESoQ
Find out... After the jump.
Ivy Jane Seewald is Jim Bob + Michelle’s 13th Grandchild. She joins the ranks of Mackynzie (2009), Michael (2011), Marcus (2013); Israel, Meredith, Spurgeon (2015); Henry, Samuel, Mason (2017); Gideon, Garrett, and Felicity (2018). Her data can be added to theirs in calculating the Overall Duggar data. She is also Jessa + Ben’s third child. Her data is added to her brothers’—Spurgeon’s and Henry’s—in calculating the Seewalds’ Data.
Pregnancy Announcement
Let’s start at the beginning—i.e., the pregnancy announcement. Jessa + Ben announced this pregnancy on January 9, 2019. Since Ivy was due on June 5, 2019, Jessa was 133 Days Along (19 Weeks) at the time.
Seewald Data. The Seewalds announced Spurgeon when Jessa was 86 Days Along and Henry at 126 Days, for a pre–Ivy Seewald Average of 102 Days (SD, 22 Days). Adding in Ivy, the average shifts to 112 Days Along (+10 Days) with a 24–Day (+2 Day) SD. This yields a new ±1 SD Range of 88–136 Days Along.
Duggar Data. Turning to the Overall Duggar data... Prior to Ivy, it was Duggar–typical to publicly reveal a pregnancy when the woman was 94 Days Along (SD, 37 Days). Adding in Ivy’s data, the average shifts to 97 Days Along (+3 Days), the SD stays at 37 Days, and the Probable Range is now 60–134 Days Along.
Note that Ivy’s is the second–latest Pregnancy Announcement, out of all of the Duggars’... Only Marcus was announced later (at 192 Days Along).
Also, FYI—Kendra, Joy, Lauren, and Anna’s current pregnancies are not part of this data since their due dates are still pretty speculative—besides, they hadn’t announce by the time Jessa did. Amy is also excluded; she’s just a cousin.
Timeliness of Birth
Ivy Jane was due on June 5, 2019, and born 10 Days Early, on May 26, 2019.
Seewald Data. Spurgeon and Henry were both born 4 Days Late. (Spurgeon was due 11–1–15, born 11–5–15. Henry was due 2–2–17, born 2–6–17.) Ivy’s data shifts things considerably. The Seewald Average is now to deliver 1 Day Early (–5 Days), with a SD of 8 Days and a Probable (±1 SD) Range of 9 Days Early—7 Days Late.
Duggar Data. Looking at all of the GrandDuggars, the pre–Ivy average was to deliver On–Time, with a SD of 7 Days. (So, it was ‘normal’ to give birth within one week, in either direction, of one’s due date.) Post–Ivy, the average adjusts to 1 Day Early (–1 Day); however, the SD remains at 7 Days. It’s now Duggar–typical to delivery 8 Days Early—6 Days Late.
Ivy’s early birth is noteworthy. Other than Ivy, the only Duggar Daughter (Born–In, not In–Law) to deliver early was Jinger, and she was actually induced—so, it barely counts. It’s a first, for sure! Very unexpected.
Birthweight + Length
Ivy was born weighing 7 Pounds + 14 Ounces, and measuring 20.5 Inches.
Seewald Data. As Jessa commented on the Seewald Family Blog, Ivy was way smaller than her brothers! Spurgeon weighed 9 Pounds + 11 Ounces, at birth, and Henry weighed 8 Pounds + 11 Ounces. Lengthwise, Spurgeon was 21.25 Inches, and Henry was 21.75 Inches. (Very precise!) So, the pre–Ivy averages were 9 Pounds, 3 Ounces and 21.5 Inches. Factoring in Ivy, the averages shift to 8 Pounds + 12 Ounces (–7 Ounces) and 21.17 Inches (–0.21 Inches). With the new SDs of 15 Ounces and 0.63 Inches, it’s now probable that Future Baby Seewalds will weigh in at 7 Pounds + 13 Ounces—9 Pounds + 11 Ounces, and measure 20.96—21.38 Inches in length.
Duggar Data. Looking at all the GrandDuggars... The pre–Ivy averages were a birthweight of 8 Pounds + ~14 Ounces (SD, ~14 Ounces), and a birth length of 21.17 Inches (SD, 1.06 Inches). With Ivy’s data, the average shifts to 8 Pounds + 12 Ounces (–2 Ounces) and 21.12 Inches (–.05 Inches). The SDs also shift to 13 Ounces (–1 Ounce) and 1.03 Inches (–.03 Inches). As such, your ‘typical’ GrandDuggar now arrives weighing from 7 Pounds + 15 Ounces to 9 Pounds + 9 Ounces, and measuring 20.09—22.15 Inches in length.
Shockingly, Ivy is only the third GrandDuggar is be born weighing < 8 Pounds, joining Garrett (7 Pounds + 8 Ounces) and Meredith (7 Pounds + 14 Ounces).
Birth Announcement
The Seewalds announced Ivy Jane’s birth on May 28, 2019, 2 Days After she arrived.
Seewald Data. Until Ivy, the Seewalds never waited to announce... Spurgeon and Henry’s births were both announced immediately—i.e., literally the day–of the birth. Factoring in Ivy, it’s now Seewald–typical to announce a birth 1 Day After (+ 1 Day), and the ±1 SD Range is 0—2 Days.
Duggar Data. Pre–Ivy, it was Duggar–typical to announce a birth 1 Day After, with a SD of 2 Days, and a Probable Range of 0—3 Days. Ivy doesn’t impact this data at all. It’s still typical to announce a birth 1 Day After (No Change); since the SD remains 2 Days (No Change), the Probable Range remains 0—3 Days.
Child Spacing + ESoQ
Finally... Let’s talk child spacing. Ivy Jane arrived 839 Days (~2.3 Years) after her brother, Henry. Here’s how it impacts the data...
Seewald Data. Spurgeon was born 369 Days into the Seewald Marriage, and Henry arrived 459 Days after that. Thus, the Seewalds’ pre–Ivy average pace was 1 Child Every 414 Days; however, they completely failed to maintain this. The Predictor became dynamic and, immediately before Ivy’s birth, they were working with a projected pace of 1 Child Every 560 Days. Post–Ivy, Jessa + Ben have a new average pace of 1 Child Every 556 Days. While this is a lot (+142 Days) slower than their pre–Ivy actual pace, it’s actually a bit faster (–4 Days) than their dynamic, projected pace.
The Seewalds’ ESoQ, thus, holds steady at 13 Children (No Change).
Duggar Data. Looking at all GrandDuggars, the pre–Ivy Child–to–Child (Same Parents) spacing 532 Days (SD, 215 Days). Thus, it was ‘typical’ for a Duggar Couple to have 1 Child Every 317—747 Days. (Excluding Firstborns, it would be 560—834 Days.) Factoring in Ivy, ‘average spacing’ is now 555 Days (+23 Days), with a SD of 223 Days and a Probable Range of 332—778 Days. (With Firstborns excluded, that range shifts to 581—853 Days.)
Overall, pre–Ivy, the Predictor anticipated a total of 245 GrandDuggars. After Ivy, it’s 240 GrandDuggars (5 Less), which is 1 Less Each for Jana, Hannie, Jenni, Jordyn, and Josie. (That’s all of the unmarried girls.) That’s actually a pretty big impact!
Fascinating to see the data change over time, don’t you agree?!
Jessa is exactly 37 Weeks Along as of today, May 16, 2019! (Technically, that’s “early term,” but it’s “term” nonetheless!). Labor could begin any time now but, if Jessa’s prior labors are any indication, it might still be awhile... Spurgeon and Henry both arrived 4 Days Late. If Seewald #3 does the same, he or she will be born 25 Days from today, on June 10, 2019.
Today (May 21, 2019), Jessa (Duggar) Seewald posted on IG that “Seewald #3 will be 38 Weeks tomorrow.” Assuming that’s true, which is probably is (?)—at the very least, it would be absurdly patronizing to assume it’s untrue—then, we can do the math and calculate Jessa’s due date as... June 5, 2019. But wait... Previously, she said she was due on June 6, 2019! (She told Jinger a due date of June 6 on Counting On, “A Bachelor No More.”)
So I’m confused.
Also, in the comments on today’s IG Post, someone asked Jessa whether she thinks she will go early or late. Jessa responded—
... again, I’m slightly confused. Spurgeon was due November 1, 2015, and was born on the 5th (4 Days Late). Henry was due on February 2, 2017, and arrived on the 6th (4 Days Late). And, in both cases, I’m getting the due dates directly from the Seewalds. (With Spurge, they put ‘11.01.2015’ on the announcement onesie. With Henry, Jessa said he was due on February 2nd, on Counting On!) But, if they were actually both 5 Days Late, does that mean they were actually due on October 31 and February 1? Should I adjust my spreadsheets?
I think I will leave all of the data as is, for now? Thoughts?
Do we know Ivy Jane Seewald's time of birth? If so, should her data be included in the birth time of the third-generation Duggars and Bateses? Also, out of curiosity, what is the average time of day for a Duggar or Bates to give birth? Morning, Afternoon, Evening, Night?
Yes, we do! According to her parents, Ivy Jane was born at 5:57 PM (on May 26, 2019). And yes, you’re right! She should be included on the Times of Birth Post! I added her. Sorry for the oversight!
As for the most common time for Duggar and Bates Babies to be born... Let’s divide the day into three 8–Hour periods—
Morning 4:00 AM–11:59 AM
Afternoon 12 Noon–7:59 PM
Nighttime 8:00 PM–3:59 AM
Here’s how many babies have arrived in each—
Morning 7 Births (3 Duggar, 4 Bates)
Afternoon 9 Births (7 Duggar, 2 Bates)
Nighttime 5 Births (2 Duggar, 3 Bates)
Unknown 1 Birth (Meredith Duggar)
For Duggars, the Afternoon is the most popular time to give birth, with 7 of 13 Births (54%). For Bateses, Morning is most popular, with 4 of 9 Births (44%).
Now that we know Jessas due date, does her announcement fall outside 1 standard deviation of when she “should” have announced based on her first two pregnancies!
When Was Seewald #3 Initially Expected to Arrive? How Does That Date Compare to Jessa’s Due Date?
Good Ask, but I want to revise it in one way before answering: The Predictor’s pregnancy and birth estimates are driven by child–spacing data, so I think that the more appropriate question is: Given Seewald #3 known due date, how far is the predicted DOB from the DOB that was initially predicted after Jessa’s first two pregnancies?
Quite a simple Ask to answer, actually! Spurgeon was born 369 Days into the Seewald’s marriage, and Henry followed 459 Days after. Doing the math, their average child spacing immediately post–Henry was 414 Days. Based on that, the Predictor thought Seewald #3 would arrive 414 Days after Henry’s DOB (of February 6, 2017), on March 27, 2018. Also, after two births, the Seewald SD for child spacing was 64 Days. So, here are the projected dates...
Average March 27, 2018
... + 1 SD May 30, 2018
... + 2 SDs August 2, 2018
... + 3 SDs October 5, 2018
... + 4 SDs December 8, 2018
... + 5 SDs February 10, 2019
... + 6 SDs April 15, 2019
... + 7 SDs June 18, 2019
... and we could continue, ad nauseam.
As you can see, it appears Seewald #3 will arrive between 6–7 SDs Later than initially predicted. I will candidly admit that this reveals a huge, inevitable flaw in the Predictor... Predictions based on very small data sets—two data points in this case—are really speculative, since there’s no ‘mass’ of data to stabilize abnormally high or low values. Rationally, we all know that Henry arrived very quickly after Spurgeon; none of us really expect all of Jessa’s children to be so closely–spaced. But... Since there’s nothing else for the Predictor to go on, it assumes she will procreate that fast.
Yes, I could manually manipulate the Predictor to ‘account for’ issues like this, but I resist that... I’m focused on the data. I know the data has flaws, but to combine data with manual manipulations is basically just guessing. It’s not at all data–based. Duggar Data is about forecasting events based upon the data, however flawed that data may be, and that’s how it will remain!
