Soccernomics - Interview with Simon Kuper
If you like seafood, you should go fishing, if you love period costume dramas, you should grow your hair long(er), and if you enjoy soccer/football you will love Soccernomics. The truth is, Gentlemen who are fond of sports in general will enjoy Kuper and Szymanski's read as it reveals, often counter intuitive, insights, statistics and psychology about soccer that transfer well to other sports. Soccernomics asks and answers questions about all the national, and big club teams - but it also delves into racism, transfer strategies, power patterns, best fans, and poverty myths.
Simon Kuper was nice enough to sit with us for a few questions, which is no small ask given that this guy has travelled more than the people he writes about. He studied at Oxford and Harvard (whatever, who didn't?), was born in Uganda and grew up in London, the Netherlands, the US, Sweden and Jamaica, is very well published, and writes in both English and Dutch - although he sucks at checkers and unicycling.
Gentlemanbug: Thanks again for talking with us Simon. It was fascinating to read how few clubs invest in cultural relocation staff & programs given how much is spent on foreign players. Have you noticed or heard of improvements in certain club's relocation programs since the book came out?
Simon Kuper: Absolutely. We're going to write about this in the new updated & expanded issue of Soccernomics coming out this spring. Briefly, almost all Premier League teams now employ what they call 'player liaison officers' whose tasks include relocation. Some do their jobs well, while some are part-timers who do it less well [diplomacy points]. So the issue is being taken more seriously now, as part of a general trend away from stupidity in professional soccer [diplomacy demerits], but it's not quite there yet.
GB: Were the pair of you approached frequently by big clubs and their staff after the book had come out, given your findings about cultural effects, wage impacts etc?
SK: We've both had contact with some big clubs since the book came out. We also know of other clubs that haven't contacted us but have read the book. I can't say that we've changed policy at any one specific club, but I do think clubs are slowly becoming more professional, and as part of that, more and more club executives now keep up with books like ours.
GB: You talk about four main factors that help determine national team success. If experience counts for so much in international competitions, as you've shown [using science], how will inexperienced countries improve in rankings and performance in the foreseeable future if every team builds experience at the same rate?
SK: You can improve your experience by playing more matches, the new Soccernomics [plug #2 - still reasonable] shows how the US have done this to great effect, or by importing experience from the region of the world with the most soccer know how, namely continental Western Europe. The US's recent appointment of Klinsmann, as with England's of Capello, are attempts to import this continental European know how and experience. Of course American players, and others from inexperienced nations, are increasingly acquiring experience and know how by moving to the world's toughest leagues - like Dempsey to Fulham, and Donovan's loan spell at Everton.
GB: Would an excess of friendlies help?
SK: It's best of course to play competitive matches, especially as most contries take friendlies less seriously. But for the US in particular, that poses a problem, because only during World Cups does it play competitive matches against the best teams. The rest of the time it either plays competitively against the likes of Honduras or Canada, or only friendlies against the world's top teams... not ideal.
GB: In all honesty, who was your money on to win the 2010 World Cup? (If you say Spain, we'll probably still believe you.)
SK: What I was saying was Spain are the best team going to the World Cup. That doesn't mean they'll win it, but they are the best team. The problem is that a World Cup is so short - you win after 7 matches - resulting in a huge fluke element. If Arjen Robben's shot had gone in on 60 minutes, Holland could very well have won the World Cup, yet they wouldn't have been the best team in the world.
GB: So did you make a boat load of money at the pools that summer or not?
SK: [silence - possibly due to bad connection]
GB: Moving on... given Alex Ferguson's success, did he prove to be a significant exception to any of your findings?
SK: We're literally just now constructing a table of a few coaches in England these last few decades who have actually added value to their teams.
We believe that most coaches don't matter, and could probably be replaced by teddy bears without their teams' results suffering much.
GB: Could they be replaced with sock monkeys?
SK: Probably, but we feel that perhaps 10% of coaches do make a positive difference. Stefan Szymanski's latest figures for 1974 - 2008 suggest that Ferguson adds more to his team, on average per season, than any other coach in England in that period.... Respekt!
GB: Totally. Speaking of Manchester, it was great to read the history of top teams emerging from industrial towns. Would that suggest that China and to a lesser extent India should have a stronger showing in soccer given they are industrial powerhouses, with huge populations and in one case, a certain amount of fascist-like governing?
SK: Well, India is only becoming a more urban and industrial country now. The thing is, being urban and industrial doesn't mean you're going to excel at soccer. It just means that more people will wind up in big cities, where they are likely to play team sports. Americans play team sports well, but historically they didn't play soccer.
Indians played cricket. Only now that soccer is sweeping the world are many Indians and Chinese urbanites taking an interest in watching soccer. But very few Indians and Chinese get good opportunities to play soccer. In China traditionally only elite athletes got a chance to play much sport. Plus, these countries are still poor per capita, which we show is a negative for sporting performance. So it'll be a while before they become good at soccer, though they should start improving now.
By the way, being fascist isn't a positive for a country's development in soccer at all. What it often does is create a favored team in the captial city that can recruit all the best players in the country, with the support of the dictator or his coterie. Real Madrid under Franco was the classic example.
GB: You mentioned "Soccer is a soap opera" - how much has the drama of players at big clubs contributed to the increased attendance? For example, Joey Barton is good, but would people want to watch him so much if there wasn't the drama surrounding him? Balotelli, Rooney, Roy Keane, John Terry, Torres, Berbatov - all surrounded in drama of some sort (red cards, scandals, wages etc).
SK: Most of us have to care about players as people, as characters, for us to take an interest in them. That's why hardly anyone in Europe or the US follows, say, the Brazilian league. There are great players there, but we don't know their stories, and so we don't take an interest. In leagues like England, the media will create the players'
stories even if there isn't much material there. They'll track every aspect of the players' public and private life, and blow little things up into scandals. The players understandably complain about this, but these stories do feed the public's interest in soccer.
GB: As cooking changes the enjoyment of food for some chefs, did this book (and your previous soccer books) ruin or change the game for you as a fan?
SK: A little bit. The best way to watch soccer is as a partisan of one team, with your friends. As a journalist you watch as a neutral, alone in the press box, drinking tea, trying to view events critically and dispassionately. That makes it harder to lose yourself in the emotion.
GB: When do you see the US, Japan and China becoming consistent competitors?
SK: The US and Japan aren't far off. The US is already good enough that when it has a good day, and a top ten opposition has a bad day, it can beat any team on earth. I expect these new soccer countries to improve steadily over the years. China is a bit behind the others though; but I suspect it's going to start qualifying for World Cups regularly at last, and may well host the 2026 World Cup.
GB: Who is your choice for winning Euro 2012 (or top 3 guesses)?
SK: The best three teams in Europe are Spain, Germany and Holland, probably in that order.
GB: Left turn... What is your current favourite restaurant?
SK: I love going to Chez Mamy around the corner from me here in Paris; also Le Temps au Temps, near my office here.
Many thanks to Simon Kuper for taking the time to sit with us, and for co-writing an intelligent and excellent book. Just last month he came out with another book on the beautiful game in Soccer Men - profiling the rogues, geniuses, and neurotics who dominate the world's most popular sport.
