#dillard 3

[duggardata]

Jill Had The Baby! Frederick Michael Dillard arrived via planned C–Section on July 7, 2022. The Dillards just announced his arrival on their blog.

Data analysis to follow!

[fundiebabynamebible]

Jill’s baby shower. Looks better than anything the rest of the family ever did for her! The bit about several family members not being there broke my heart 💔.

[poisonfundies]

my predictions for baby announcements this year:

duggar-spivey 1 announced in june (born dec 21/jan 22) (a boy)

duggar-swanson 2 announced in august (born feb 22) (a boy)

stewart 2 announced in august (born feb 22) (a boy)

forsyth 3 announced in october (born early apr 22) (a boy)

MAYBE dillard 3 announced in late oct/early nov (born may 22) (probably a boy)

duggar-nakatsu 1 announced around thanksgiving (born may 22) (a girl)

clark 1 announced around christmas (born june 22) (a girl)

plus a new year announcement from john and abbie ahead of a may birth (boy), a new year announcement for a june birth from joseph and kendra (girl), and a feb 22 announcement for a july birth (boy) for nathan and esther.

may 2022 is the next babygeddon

[duggardata]

Jill (Dillard) is due July 23rd per her Amazon registry

New Information:  Jill Might Be Due On July 23rd.

Interesting!  Baby Registries have proven a fairly reliable source for Due Dates, in the past.  For example, Amazon Registries for Addison, Bella, Garrett, Layla, and Truett, just to name a few, all listed Due Dates that were later confirmed by other sources.  (This is in contrast to Duggar Wedding Registries, which almost always list phony dates.)

That said...  At this point, there’s nothing to “confirm” this registry is legitimate.  Jill hasn’t, e.g., discussed it on YouTube, or linked to it on Instagram.

Still, it’s definitely possible it’s real.  One thing it has going for it is that it lists a location of “Siloam Springs, AR” which is where Jill + Derick just moved.  Also, we know Jill is due in July, so July 23 is obviously a possibility.

For now, Duggar Data will pencil in July 23, 2022 as Jill’s Due Date based on this registry.  I don’t consider it confirmed, yet...  I’ll be keeping a close eye on the Dillard’s social media, to see if they link or refer to this registry, and on the registry itself, to see if anything gets purchased.  (Especially if the purchase is followed shortly by a social media post about Jill having a baby shower.)

Thank you so much for sending this in, Anon!

[ Permalink to Referenced Amazon Registry (Header) ]

[duggardata]

"Frederick was set to arrive later in July, but he decided he wanted to come a little early (the day before big brother Samuel’s birthday!), so we had our planned C-section a bit before originally planned." Jill's blog post makes it sound like the c-section was moved up because she went into labour, technically that would make it an emergency c-section wouldn't it?

I'm not an OB/GYN, so I don't know what the exact definition of an "Emergency C–Section" is, but it certainly doesn't sound like it was an emergency. Sounds like Jill had been planning to deliver via C–Section, and that it was scheduled for a particular date, but then it got moved up for some reason. Maybe she went into labor—but, it really could've been any number of things. It doesn't sound like she labored for awhile and, during labor, urgently and unexpectedly had to have a C–Section, which is what I think of as an "Emergency C–Section."

Also, I find this Ask kind of funny. What's the interest is making her delivery so dramatic? She has a history of difficult deliveries, but it sounds like everything went fine this time! Thank God!

[fundiebabynamebible]

It's a Boy for the Dillards!!!

Fundie/ex fundie news seems to be coming whilst I sleep these days. Another boy for the Dillards. Looks like I was right about this being a boy streak for the Duggars, I still don't think it will last more than six babies though.

Name Predictions Here

[duggardata]

Welcome to The World, Freddy!

On July 7, 2022, 5:16 PM, Jill (Duggar) + Derick Dillard had their 3rd Child (and 3rd Son), Frederick Michael Dillard. "Freddy," as he will be called, joins Older Brothers Israel David (7) and Samuel Scott (5). Jill + Derick announced the birth on July 11th, via their blog.

Read on for Freddy's impact on Jill + Derick's and the Duggar Data!

When Was Jill's Due Date?

Based on a Baby Registry, Jill's Due Date w/ Freddy was suspected to be July 23, 2022. Though the registry was never verified by, e.g., Jill or Derick linking to it on social media, Duggar Data believes it to be legitimate for three reasons:

First, Baby Registries have historically been reliable sources for Due Dates among Duggar. (Unlike Wedding Registries, which aren't at all reliable for Wedding Dates!) See the Baby Registries for Addison, Bella, Garrett, and Truett, all of which listed the actual Due Date, confirmed later by other, non–registry sources.

Second... A lot of items were purchased from Jill's registry, followed quickly by social media posts about her baby shower.

Finally, the Due Date on the registry (July 23rd) is consistent with all other available information. Prior to Freddy's Birth, Jill + Derick said she was due in "July." So, July 23rd is obviously consistent with that. Then, after his birth (on July 7th), they said that he was "a little early," which is consistent with a Due Date later in July, like the 23rd.

Given all of this, Duggar Data will use July 23, 2022 as Freddy's Due Date, and considers that more–or–less "confirmed."

Timing of Pregnancy Announcement

After a loss in October 2021, Jill + Derick announced Pregnancy #3* on February 27, 2022. Due on July 23rd, Jill was 134 Days Along (or 19 Weeks, 1 Day), at the time.

Effect on Jill + Derick's Data—

Other than Freddy's, Jill + Derick have announced 2 Pregnancies—Israel's at 64 Days Along, and Sam's at ~83 Days Along. Taking the average... 74 Days Along was "typical" for them, pre–Freddy. With Freddy's [much–later] announcement factored in, it's now "typical" for Jill + Derick to announce at 94 Days Along (+20 Days).

(Note—Yes, they also announced a loss in 2021; however, they had already lost the baby, by then. It was a Loss Announcement, rather than a Pregnancy Announcement. Now... If they'd announced, and then suffered a loss, that Pregnancy Announcement would count.)

Effect on Duggar Family Data—

Prior to Freddy, your typical Duggar Couple announce a pregnancy at 96 Days Along. Factoring Freddy in, that shifts ever–so–slightly to 97 Days Along (+1 Day).

Timing of Sex Reveal

Jill + Derick did Freddy's Sex Reveal on March 23, 2022—again, via their family blog. Based on a July 23rd Due Date, Jill would've been 158 Days Along (22 Weeks, 4 Days), at the time.

Effect on Jill + Derick's Data—

The Dillard–Duggars did Sex Reveals for Israel and Sam, as well. At Israel's, Jill was 126 Days Along; at Sam's, she was ~124 Days Along. Doing the math... Until Freddy, a "typical" Sex Reveal for the Dillard–Duggars happened at 125 Days Along. Factoring Freddy in, it shifts to 136 Days Along (+10 Days).

Effect on Duggar Family Data—

Until Freddy, it was Duggar–typical to do the Sex Reveal, if one was done at all, at 150 Days Along. Factoring Freddy in, that shifts a bit to 151 Days Along (+1 Day). Also, both pre– and post–Freddy, your typical Duggar Couple did do a Sex Reveal, prior to birth. So far, the only GrandDuggars that didn't have one are Gideon Forsyth and the Seewald Kids (Spurgeon, Henry, Ivy, and Fern).

Timing of Delivery (vs. Due Date)

Jill's Due Date was July 23, 2022. Freddy arrived on July 7, 2022—so, he was 16 Days Early.

Effect on Jill + Derick's Data—

Jill has now delivered late (Israel; 13 Days Late), early (Frederick; 16 Days Early), and roughly on–time (Sam; ~3 Days Late). After Israel and Sam, Jill's "average" delivery was 8 Days Late. Factoring in her last delivery, it shifts to On Time, 0 Days Late or Early (–8 Days).

Effect on Duggar Family Data—

Prior to Freddy, your typical Duggar Couple welcomed their child 2 (1.74) Days Early. Factoring Freddy in, it's still 2 Days Early (2.33)—technically a marginal shift, but No Significant Change.

Labor & Delivery Details

Freddy was born via a scheduled / planned C–Section. When they announced his birth, Jill + Derick mentioned: "Frederick was set to arrive later in July, but he decided he wanted to come a little early ..., so we had our planned C-section a bit before originally planned."  

Birthweight & Length

At birth, Baby Freddy weighed 7 Pounds, 6 Ounces, and measured 20" Long. That's pretty small, compared to his two brothers! Israel and Samuel each weighed 9 Pounds, 10 Ounces, at birth, and were 23" and 22" Long, respectively. Prior to Freddy, Jill + Der's "typical" was, thus, 9 Pounds, 10 Ounces, and 22.5" Long. Factoring Freddy in, it's now 8 Pounds, 14 Ounces (–12 Oz.) and 21.67" Long (–0.8").

Effect on Procreative Pace (PP)

Freddy actually doesn't impact Jill + Derick Procreative Pace, since he's a rainbow baby and there's a known Loss Data for the previous pregnancy. As a result, his Child Spacing is a Post–Loss Spacing—and thus, it counts toward the Average Post–Loss Spacing, used to forecast post–miscarriage, rather than toward PP.

Generally, a couple's Procreative PP is based on all Non–Firstborn, Non–Post Loss Spacings. For Jill + Derick, that would include the Child Spacings for Sam and River (Theoretical Based on Due Date). However, Jill + Derick openly acknowledged that they'd used birth control, prior to conceiving River. As a result, River's Spacing isn't representative of their "natural" pace—and thus, isn't factored in to their PP. We're left just with their Israel–to–Sam Spacing, which is 731 Days (Adjusted for Prior C–Section), for their PP.

Duggar Data will forecast Dillard–Duggar #4 with that Procreative Pace (PP). However, please keep in mind that, if Jill + Derick start using birth control again, it'll be impossible to predict when they'll have their next child... Only they will know!

Effect on Post–Loss Spacing

Currently, and including Freddy's, there's data from 22 Post–Loss Spacings in Duggar Data's Master Spreadsheet. This data comes from all Predictor and Predictor–Adjacent Families.

Prior to Freddy, the Average Post–Loss Spacing (i.e., Loss Date to Subsequent Live Birth) was 411 Days. Factoring Freddy in, it's 414 Days (+3 Days) (or ~13.6 Months).

ESoQ / When To Expect Dillard #4

ESoQ isn't really relevant, here, since it's clear that Jill + Derick are not quiverfull (QF), and are engaging in family planning. Let's just pretend they aren't for a moment, though... If they were to cast all birth control to the wind and pop out 1 Child Every 713 Days (Their PP), from now until Jill is Age 43.24 (Her Fertility Cut–Off), they'd end up with 9 Children.

As for When to Expect Dillard #4... Again, let's assume they're not going to intentionally control the spacing. If that's the case, here's what the Predictor expects—

Baby News March 15, 2024

Due Date September 17, 2024

Projected DOB September 17, 2024

Congratulations to Jill + Derick!

[duggardata]

Jill is 38 Weeks Along

Based on a Due Date of July 23, 2022, as stated on an unverified, but possibly legitimate, Amazon Registry.  Dillard #3* Baby Watch!