You say yourself that SweetRobin's death is going to put a wrench on LF's plans and not Harry 's . Maybe it makes narrative sense for him to die in order for Sansa to trigger something that the Vale is not safe for her anymore and she needs to flee just like Raff's death in Braavos and probably Hodor's death in Bloodraven's cave are going to trigger Arya's and Bran's respectively . Grrm also said that LF is going to come across many troubles in TWOW . Maybe take time to read Grrm's interviews before you come with your " everything will be all right " analysis. Harry's premature death doesn't bring any threat of danger to Sansa's anonymity but getting falsely implicated in SweetRobin's does and something that makes her departure in haste.
Could you tell me what would be the reason that makes Sansa leave the Vale early ? Looking at her TWOW Alayne Sample chapter, she is in a very safe space thanks to LF's hold on the Vale Lords. Sansa's safety in the Vale is tied to LF's power. Once he is outed , the Classist Vale lords wouldn't give 2 thoughts about his bastard daughter . If SweetRobin is surviving and everything is alright then it makes no reason for Sansa to leave because as long as the kid is alive, LF stays in power and her Alayne identity is a safety mask. Once he dies though, things are going to go south for both of them and probably would make Sansa journey North to sought the protection of her half brother.
Arya is staying in Braavos , Bran in the Bloodraven's cave and Sansa in Vale until something happens which threatens their own safety and make them leave these places in a hurry. For Sansa , SweetRobin's death followed by LF being ousted something which could be engineered by Yohn Royce and then LF trying to frame Sansa and dragging her with him could be the catalyst for her to escape . You can't have a shake of power in the Vale without SweetRobin's death.
Hello anon.
Look, I enjoy answering asks. They get my brain whirring and can be incredibly inspiring. I don’t mind contemplating ideas I disagree with, they help me understand why I disagree.
But this is my own personal blog where I enjoy analyzing the books and post for my own pleasure and you don’t have to read it and you most certainly don’t have to condescend to me.
Maybe take time to read Grrm's interviews before you come with your " everything will be all right " analysis.
Maybe make your own post analyzing GRRM’s interviews and then share it with the world. I specifically look at how GRRM works with foreshadowing in the books. That is my thing. What I enjoy. I take references to other things into account, but I certainly am not going to depend on GRRM’s inteviews and his careful dance between avoiding spoilers and guiding interpretation. So kindly take your impolite and entitled attitude and place it on a shelf. It really spoils what is otherwise an interesting ask.
Now to the content of your ask.
Sweetrobin dying makes no sense.
It’s not necessary. They don’t need to oust Littlefinger if Sweetrobin dies. He IS out and can leave in peace or stay and serve. Harry is the heir and he is an adult. No conflict, unless Littlefinger picks a fight he obviously can’t win, which is unlikely. Why would he?
The scenario you propose is convoluted because it contradicts itself. Why would anyone blame the guy who has no motive for Sweetrobin’s death, which everyone has been anticipating to begin with? How does Sweetrobin even die? Why would they bother to pin this on him? Why would LF then shift the blame to Sansa who can reveal her identity and testify against him regarding Lysa? The only reason she is going along with his story is to protect herself. If he turns on her, she turns on him. Being wanted for regicide by Cersei is trumped by being directly accused of murder in the Vale. How does Sansa even escape in that case, would she not be under supervision and or arrest?
It hampers future important plot involvement of the Vale by making them entirely hostile to Sansa if she flees under the suspicion of being Sweetrobin’s murderer. They are the only army in Westeros who are used to wintery conditions and to wildlings, and have ties to the Wall plot (via Waymar) and House Stark. If she doesn’t reveal her identity and just runs, they may come when Sansa calls later but then you have a super-boring “Oh, I didn’t kill him. Now fight the wights” anti-climactic brush-aside of the entire thing because they are obviously not turning back around when the dead are marching. Why bother?
It prevents Sansa from credibly bringing Littlefinger to justice in a way that matches foreshadowing because their relationship would already be irreparably broken. Why would he ever let his guard down around her in any way? She would have to capture him like a common brigand, which is a painful waste of an opportunity to see her actually outwit him in concert with her sister. Which is what the foreshadowing implies.
It is kind of lame if the kid everyone predicted to die since book one... just dies. All the build-up of Sansa’s relationship with the future lord of the Vale, her efforts to make him stronger, her mirror to Ned, they just evaporate. The sickly kid dies. Somehow everyone is shocked and surprised and it causes a crisis against all odds.
Alternative factors that would upset the status quo and could contribute to Sansa leaving:
A Vale Conspiracy to mirror the Northern Conspiracy to remove Sweetrobin from Littlefinger and depose him while the kid is obviously still alive (extra drama due to conflicting interests among the lords)
an intervention by someone like Yohn Royce who recognizes Sansa and knows the betrothal is impossible because she is already married
Harry dies and plans for Sansa’s path North need to change
an attack by the mountain clans causes chaos and prompts Sansa to reveal her identity to someone she recognizes (Timett, Chella, Shagga..)
an (attempted) kidnapping by a bounty hunter
Sansa realizes that Littlefinger is her enemy in a way that doesn’t openly break their relationship but causes her to clandestinely seek refuge elsewhere
political developments outside the Vale that change their plans
Any number of these - and likely ones I forgot - in any combination can serve to upset the status quo.
I think SweetRobin dying and then LF gaslighting Sansa in order to have his grips on her makes sense. Grrm did say that characters will be at their lowest in TWOW . After that they will emerge victorious ( delivering justice within Winterfell after meeting Jeyne and her siblings ) . Also the guilt of being involved in her cousin's death something which I could see LF gaslighting her could take a mental toll upon her . Also all the child heirs- Shireen, Rickon, SweetRobin, Tommen and Myrcella , I could see them dying. I think SweetRobin's death could pave way for Harrold succeeding him ( though he will eventually die too ) in leading the Vale forces North to help her betrothed regain her home back. Also the theme of " triumph at what cost " also encapsulates perfectly. SweetRobin's survival and just I don't know makes the narrative look quite easy for Sansa . It's going to be hard for each of our Starklings before things go normal . Arya will be deepening in guilt with whatever violence and trauma she had to endure , meeting Stoneheart . Similar will be Bran who might harbour guilt for the death of an innocent ( Hodor ) . I think Sansa's could be similar too.
Hi anon!
The thing with Sweetrobin is that he is the rightful heir in Littlefinger's grasp. The bird in the hand. Being his stepfather (and bribing a few Vale lords, and Cersei's command to see him unharmed) is the ONLY reason he is Lord Protector of the Vale. Remove Sweetrobin, and Littlefinger is out because Harry is a grown man and needs no regents. Killing Sweetrobin would be self-sabotage. He could go off packing to Harrenhal.
The reason he is spending time and money on making the betrothal to "Alayne" happen right now is the fact that Harry is still only an heir with few prospects outside of that, he is not independently rich or impressive on his own. His aunt can chastise him and pressure him into marriage right now. Not once Sweetrobin is dead. He'll be everyone's boss then.
If the betrothal happens, Harry is locked into Littlefinger's influence by oath. He cannot marry someone else and father legal heirs without tainting his honor. This is a good status quo for Littlefinger to wait and see how things develop. During this time, he still needs Sweetrobin alive. Because while dishonorable, a betrothal can still be broken, especially if one party is a lowly bastard girl and the other the next thing to a king.
But even so, a marriage to "Alayne" would be impossible because she doesn't exist and a marriage to Sansa is impossible because she is already married, so he cannot lock down Harry in this final way and have control over Harry's future legal heir by Sansa. Would Harry go to the trouble of fighting for Sansa's rights - when she is already married! - if he already has the full power of his new title and could marry anyone he wanted?
So he still needs Sweetrobin alive until Tyrion turns up dead or an annullment becomes feasible. Harry the Heir is much less independently powerful and may be swayed by the prospect of glory in battle and the appeal of his future wife's inheritance. Because Sweetrobin might not die.
And even if they marry, who's to say that Harry will allow himself to be influenced by Sansa in any way? What power would Littlefinger truly have once he hands his not-daughter Sansa Stark over to him? Unless he is still Lord Protector, none. So he still needs Sweetrobin alive.
Of course, for Littlefinger to keep full control, Harry definitely needs to die as soon as Sansa has had a child by him. That baby is the new Sweetrobin for Littlefinger to base his power on.
And only then would it be safe for Sweetrobin to die. If he can be replaced with a new child heir in Littlefinger's control.
So while there would be angsty potential, there is very little logic in the idea that Littlefinger actively wants Sweetrobin to die any time soon. He just wants the idea to be firmly established as an expectation, because it increases Harry's importance and reduces doubt if/when he actually does die.
Besides, Littlefinger has already trapped Sansa in a dangerous lie. Testifying that Marillion killed Lysa is Sansa's darkest act by far, hands down, in the entire book series, and while we understand her motivations and are privy to her inner conflict, from the outside it makes her look like she went from kingslaying Joffrey to conspiring to kill the leader of the Vale (kinslaying her aunt!) all in a, what, span of a few months? If Littlefinger really wanted to milk it, he could bring up how she came to Cersei when Ned wanted to send her away from KL. Then he could bring up her "complicity" in trying to poison Sweetrobin.
He could gently imply his ability to ruin her reputation far worse than Jaime's, and make Sansa feel like she earned it. She already feels guilt over Marillion. Even though he was a rapist actively helping Lysa try to kill her. Sweetrobin doesn't have to die for Sansa to struggle with the consequences of her choices.
Also: In what universe has Sansa had it easy in the narrative? Being beaten, molested and forced into marriage, used as a tool for murder? She is the Stark with the absolute least amount of personal agency. And still where she has the opportunity, she usually chooses to help, to be compassionate, even to her enemies. She downright berates herself for it. That contrast to Arya and Bran is not a narrative "easy" path, it is an expression of her character and a different angle on enduring hardship. Sansa is not less of a character for being a good person. It is not easy. It is hard. And worthy.
Making hard choices will be part of Sansa's path, but neither does she artificially have to match the darkness of Arya's violent path, nor does Sweetrobin have to die to make it happen.
1) Name a character you think will die, that most believe will live. 2) Name a character you think will live, that most believe will die. 🤔
1) Tyrion! Just as he thinks he has gotten away with everything, it will be snatched away. He will try to wiggle free as he always does but a very delayed kind of justice will pull him under.
2) Sweetrobin! The next Walder Frey, never has the Vale had such a fertile and long-lived Lord. Only he'll be nicer because of a couple of formative months spent with 🌞Sansa🌞. Tully power.
The prophecy says abt a girl fleeing a marriage (not a betrothal). I don't understand why would S have to be in danger to do that. It's rather likely that she spoils LFs plans by leaving. No matter what these are, by leaving she protects SR bc LF needs him alive to hold the Vale. Without the Vale, LF is not going anywhere. Also, Shadrich may in fact be Reed. How nice would it be if he sent Meera/Jojen to Bran and he went to find S himself?
I agree. Harry is a massive red herring. Harryng?
I even postulate that the marriage part is not even necessarily a proper condition of the prophecy, same with the "sister", since Melisandre made it up after hearing about Arya. It happens to match Alys Karstark (no grey) and Jeyne Poole (not fleeing to him nor on a dying horse) but it doesn't have to necessarily feature for Sansa (grey, "sister", fleeing for protection, marriage unnecessary).
It will likely still feature in some way because GRRM likes irony, but not so directly. We know her marriage to Tyrion is a big anvil hanging over her, touching on everything from Northern succession to Sansa's entire marital future to negotiations between Starks and Targs. So that's a thing.
But I'm unsure about Shadrich. He doesn't seem very Howland-like in personality, I suppose. Both Meera and Jojen are solemn in a way, and the story Jojen tells of Harrenhal seems to show Howland in a similar light, all prayer and uncertainty. Shadrich is arrogant and fast with a quip in a way that goes beyond simply upholding the cover story of a hedge knight.
And wouldn't Howland be busy in the Neck juggling Ned's bones, Robb's will, and whatever else is going on there? He's the Lord of Greywater Watch. It seems irresponsible to go on a little quest as a hedge knight to find Sansa in this particular way. He has responsibilities at home? But I'm not very familiar with the theory.
Do you think sweetrobin will die in twow? I just don't understand why would author will build a relationship between alayne and Robin where she taking care of him and have him die. We have more interactions of them rather alayne have with Harry. Plus it would be ironic considering lysa tried to kill Sansa but Sansa trying to protect Robin. Also lysa with help of LF killed Jon arryn who fostered Ned stark n Sansa will protect an arryn. What do you think?
Oh, I am 100% in camp "Sweetrobin lives"!
"Ser Sweetrobin" is the equivalent to Sansa's "like a lady in a song". He gathers all his courage in a moment of fear and rises to the occasion with Sansa's help. That's his trajectory. He'll live and grow and learn and defy all who looked at a sickly, angry little boy with an impatient anticipation of his death. Like Bran. They thought death would have been a mercy. But no. Winged knights both, spiritually.
