#vale arc

[agentrouka-blog]

I find it funny that sansas ultimate disguise is dying her auburn hair to a chestnut brown . In simple people words her hair went from brownish red to reddish brown and yes absolutely no one recognized her at all .

( not to mention little fingers bastard daughter having an odd resemblance to their lady ,their ladies sister who was here a while ago and her son ,the king they wanted to fight for . Oh ! Also Sansa stark is missing, isn't that crazy !

Although if I were in the vale Id definitely be drawing up some bonkers alayne is lysa and littlefingers secret bastard conspiracy theory lol )

On a real note tho , do you think her disguise being such a subtle change is intentional on littlefingers part or just grrm not realizing how similar those colors are ? Though I doubt it since chestnut brown is such a specific shade , if it didn't mean anything then why not just go with defacto black ?or even just brown ?

Pretty sure that Myranda is right there with you, giggling into her wine and strategizing what to do with the information that the heir to the North is being hidden in the Vale by a Lord Protector everyone dislikes. In addition, also Anya Waynwood. And Yohn "Do I know you, girl" Royce, obviously.

Chestnut would look natural with Sansa's complexion, unlike black, and Littlefinger is both banking on people just not making the connection through inattention but also being able to reveal Sansa's identity at short notice whenever convenient for him.

After all, the same people who want him OUT of the Vale are also loyal to the Starks to a degree and wanted the Vale to join Robb's war. The only thing holding them back was obedience to the will of Lysa. Sansa is his "proof" that he too is a Stark loyalist (and conspiring against that tyrant Cersei!), giving him easy credibility to remain influential in the Vale should anyone else gain control of Sweetrobin. The disguise keeps Sansa isolated from any other support, thus under his control, while allowing him to also control the timing of the reveal for his own best advantage, while anyone making accurate guesses about it (but remaining silent for now) is not necessarily to his disadvantage.

[darksaiyangoku]

So I’m not the only one who sees this, right?

[agentrouka-blog]

It's interesting how, in the TWOW chapters, only Harry looks down on Alayne. Every other man compliments her and her beauty, even as a bastard.

I'd say that most people who show politeness or socially encouraged flattery to Sansa do so because Littlefinger is Lord Protector and put his "natural daughter" (pointedly avoiding the loaded term bastard) into a prominent position within his household and signaling her importance to him. The fact that she is considered a marriage partner for Harry is so so so out of the ordinary for someone of her status, as well. Both explain why people of extremely high rank interact with her at all and do so with exquisite politeness (except Lyn Corbray and Harry the Heir). It's not unlike Jon Snow's status as Winterfell, only more extreme and more fragile (given the impermanence of Littlefinger's title). Jon dances with Alys Karstark, but her father described him as a sullen bastard to her and it's Robb she is tasked with charming at the feast.

Then there is the added factor that Yohn Royce, and consequently Anya Waynwood, probably also Myranda Royce, very likely know who Alayne truly is. A girl of the highest rank and heir to Winterfell. Anya ultimately dictates and enforces the behavior of the young men in her household, including Harry.

Everyone has reason to be polite.

I'd say a look at Mya Stone (ignored in the background, pitied for what Mychel Redfort did) gives us a clue how she would otherwise be treated.

In general, I'd say that Harry is fairly honest in his classism compared to the others and it reveals how other people might speak of her in private. Only Myranda, who is said to he friends with Mya, strikes me as genuine when she describes Alayne as brave and beautiful after they both save Sweetrobin on the mountain.

That, and Sansa's beauty just makes her very easy to compliment. When Harry calls her clever, that too seems startled honesty. Sansa can absolutely win people over and has likely done so in several cases in the Vale. But the Vale nobility as a whole has very much adjusted their public treatment of her to Littlefinger's clearly signaled expectations.

[agentrouka-blog]

Wait, didnt Sansa write to the Blackfish too when Cersei made her write to Cat, Hoster, Robb etc telling them Ned was a traitor? Do you remember if Baelish made Alayne handwrite the invitations to the Winged Knights Tourney? I don't have my books with me so I can't check but I remembered this happening but it might have been from a fanfic (lmao). Because everyone talks about the letter to Cat that is still at Winterfell (a Chekhovs gun that might end up being used the same way as it was in the show) but I feel like there's a reason GRRM made Sansa write multiple letters to Riverrun and if it's to make Brynden recognise her handwriting i'm going to scream! SOMEONE is definitely going to appear at the Tourney and help her get out of the Vale and while I think it will be Brienne, I would DIE if both her and Brynden have a hand in getting her to the Wall.

She wrote to Hoster, meaning that Edmure and Brynden may have both seen the letter.

In the end, she wrote four letters. To her mother, the Lady Catelyn Stark, and to her brothers at Winterfell, and to her aunt and her grandfather as well, Lady Lysa Arryn of the Eyrie, and Lord Hoster Tully of Riverrun. (AGOT, Sansa IV)

There is no mention of Sansa hand-writing invitation letters herself in the TWOW sample chapters, and it would be strange for Littlefinger's bastard daughter to invite the highest ranking lords and ladies of the Vale, as she is not the hostess, and neither a scribe doing a maester's duties. Plus, how would the Blackfish get his hands on an invitation letter and have the presence of mind to recollect the handwriting of his niece that he saw maybe once? It is never mentioned to be particularly remarkable.

It could be much simpler: He was Knight of the Gate for more than a decade and is familiar with at least Donnel Waynwood but probably a large number of Vale lords, being the brother to the Lord of Riverrun and uncle to Lord Arryn's wife. It's heavily implied that Bronze Yohn Royce recognized Sansa, and that he and some of the Lords Declarant are making plans against Littlefinger, which includes Anya Waynwood. Plus Myranda Royce is also implied to know of Sansa's indentity.

There's plenty of Vale people who could give Brynden this information directly, should he come into contact with them after his escape from Riverrun.

Whether that's his destination is another question.

I'm not sure it will be, because I'm not sure that he would add what Sansa's path needs right now, which is independence from male authority figures, and as her maternal great-uncle that's exactly what he would be. Plus, he hasn't shown himself to be all that great, honestly. He's dismissive of Edmure, entirely unsympathetic to his niece Lysa's troubles. He's loyal to Robb, sure, and he nobly defends his widow and her family, he's pretty badass roasting Jaime. All true. But there's no... internal struggle or depth to his story. There is no angle that makes his presence in Sansa's plot meaningful.

I don't think he is the kind of figure GRRM would choose to play a significant role in Sansa's imminent journey. Unless he almost immediately dies. Sansa narratively needs to develop independence, and that's going to be either a connection she herself forges/has forged, or that's going to be the meet-up with Brienne whose plot entwines with hers thematically and removes her from the immediate control of the agents of patriarchy.

Not the Cool Badass Competent Uncle Knight with no connection to the North and no internal connecting points to Sansa's arc.

[agentrouka-blog]

The fact that LF is confident enough about his plan and his players that it will be interesting how things are going to downhill in further books. Like Mountain Clans attacking, Harry dying before, Sansa escaping to North, presence of Ser Shadric, Lyn Corbray going violent. And these things are beyond his control and will happen so suddenly that it will make him loose.

While all of these will present a set-back and a change in plans, I don't think he'll be quite on the losing end at that point yet.

He's overconfident but Harry dying isn't a huge issue for him because he doesn't actually want Harry to rule or marry Sansa. He only wants to prevent him from marrying anyone else and fathering another obvious heir to Sweetrobin.

And while Sansa is a pawn on his chess board, and he is definitely slipping up around her due to his fixation on her, she is not the only priority he has. He wants power and influence, long term, and he knows how to adapt. That's one of his biggest strengths.

He's in the unique position of being able to present himself as loyal to the Lannisters or reveal that he was Actually Not Loyal because he was hiding Sansa Stark, and that's a trump card he will doubtlessly play as soon as Sansa's identity is revealed around the Vale lords who are itching for rebellion already. Plus, he's on reasonably good terms with fragile Sweetrobin and has some of the Vale lords on his side, even as others conspire against him. Whatever chaos breaks out, unless it actually causes mass casualties and devastating conflict in the Vale, he's likely to emerge comparatively on top.

For now. Sansa escaping his control - coupled with her developing ability to manipulate him right back - is eventually going to make him lose, though.

[agentrouka-blog]

Saw an old ask you answered about Mya and had to ask your thoughts on Myranda Royce. Like, she’s the character I’m the most curious about re: the winds of winter. We know from Dumb and Dumber that the Vale plotting for Sansa won’t actually be very long (I’m assuming she gets out of there right after the tourney and leaves for the wall /possibly with the help of Brienne and or Brynden/maybe after some shenanigans from the mountain clans) but from what we can assume Bronze Yohn will be on Sansa‘s side and help her out (like in the show). Now, Myranda's Nestor dad is indebted to LF (and friends with him!) and I find it unlikely that she would pick her father’s cousins side over her dads? With her being lady of the gates too. And at this point everyone is in agreement that Myranda knows that Alayne is Sansa (very obviously highborn, educated, not interested in the new high septon despite allegedly training to be a septa, knows Ned starks bastards name, LOOKS like Catelyn Tully whom she has met not even 2 years before). IMO what’s pointing towards Myranda actually being on our girls side is 1) LF warning Alayne about her, 2) Myranda herself introducing herself as wanting to be wicked, 3) the fact that Myranda being just another Margaery would be lazy and boring, 4) The failed Myranda/Harry betrothal being revealed almost immediately by her, so it can’t actually be a major point of contention for her, right? I don’t want to put too much stock in what the show did but them naming their annoying evil fucked up Ramsay–simp Myranda Royce does sometimes make me hesitate in putting my faith behind Myranda. Ultimately I think she will look out for herself most of all but I feel like her interests aline with Sansa and it will be a net positive. I mainly just want Sansa to have actual allies! Do you think the two branches of the Royce family could end up in agreement/be scheming against LF? After all, besides Bronze Yohn's friendship with NedCat, the Royces share blood with the Starks and their house motto is "We Remember“!

I think you hit the nail on the head with the concept of aligning interests.

Nestor, I don't think he's that good of an actor to be actively fooling Littlefinger himself while appearing to be flattered into complicity, but Myranda is sharp as a knife and clearly not quite satisfied with her lot in life of marrying old men her father picks out for her. But she seems too invested in Sweetrobin to really care that much about marrying Harry for his potential title, as opposed to simply a handsome dolt her own age. So whatever she cares about, it's not in opposition to either Sansa or Sweetrobin. She's capable of subtly interrogating Sansa without her even realizing it, and she has sat on this information for months now without making a move yet. Littlefinger considers her a threat, which is the greatest compliment imaginable, and he wouldn't do that if he thought she was easily manipulated or had goals he could easily assist her with.

If the show paid lip-service to Sansa's Vale plot by naming Ramsay's invented lover after her, I don't imagine it's because Myranda herself is secretly evil, but because she's one of the key figures in the Vale arc.

I imagine she is part of a larger conspiracy connecting her to Bronze Yohn and Anya Waynwood. She would be ideally placed to be a spy for them, and they have the resources she lacks to act on her own behalf and without her father's knowledge. A Myranda who assists the Lords Declarant in removing Littlefinger from power (the mark of a true patriot, honestly) is a Myranda who may yet be rewarded with a better marital match than Harry The Obsolete Heir. (Roland, the Waynwood heir? Andar, the Royce heir?)

[agentrouka-blog]

Is it definite that Sansa herself kills Shadrich? I saw the outline, but I don’t want her to have to kill anyone. I always wanted him to be there to help her since Shadrach and Daniel (who escaped the lion’s den = Lannisters) had been friends/countrymen/etc. I keep thinking that the hive mind of the Faceless Men KNOW that Sansa is ESSENTIAL to the peaceful transfer of power at the end of the long night and that they are training Arya to take care of her and will do it themselves until her sister/other siblings are ready. I also like the idea of Littlefinger being bested by someone he has hired and underestimated… maybe turning the tables on Littlefinger with the triangle between him, Brandon, and Catelyn… but Shadrich has taken his original place but is actually trained and is truly devoted to Sansa and is willing to free her of both of them… I don’t know.

Hi there!

I don't think the outline makes it clear how the Mouse (presumably) Shadrich, is killed. Only that his death seems to be significant. It simply says "KILL THE MOUSE" written next to his three bullet points.

As of now, we can't be certain of anything pertaining to Shadrich's character, apart from how he's hiding his true intentions in the Vale.

The fact that he shows up with two companions at the Gates of the Moon may indeed be a reference to Shadrach from the book of Daniel, who (gleaning entirely from wikipedia here, sorry) is one of three companions who take on Babylonian names to blend in, but are found out to be faithful Jews and thrown into a furnace, where they miraculously remain unharmed until they are released and rewarded with high offices.

Going by the gist of the story, which visually touches on Dany, but thematically on the Starks, I don't think it's about Shadrich himself, so much as a hint about Sansa's future, triumph after trials.

That would also explain the reference to Lord Byron in the second companion. (Ahem.)

Possibly, the third companion Ser Morgarth may be a Tolkien reference to Morgoth, but I'm not familiar enough with Tolkien anything to make any guesses there.

I am not sure that GRRM would waste a parallel to Littlefinger's formative and traumatic duel on a recently introduced minor character like Shadrich. That duel turned him into the villain he is today. Shadrich has no connection to it, a wholly different motivation, obvious advantages that a young Petyr lacked... the parallel would be very contrived and lack meaning in this way. Why would there even be a duel?

Regarding the Faceless Men, I think we probably view them very differently. I see no evidence of a hivemind, nor of any investment in the future of humanity. To me, they are a hypocritical magical death cult making a tidy profit under the guise of religion, and Arya needs to escape them ASAP.

[agentrouka-blog]

I've seen a handful of people speculate that if Jon is truly alive (assuming that the wounds he received at the end of his chapter in ADWD were fatal to begin with), he could maybe inform the Vale of the ongoing food problem at the Wall and therefore, Sansa (or rather "Alayne" in this case) would receive that message and maybe try to reunite with Jon in some way. It sounds a bit wishy washy to me... Do you think that theory holds any merit?

Hi there!

Well, GRRM made very sure to explicitly state that the Vale is sitting on a big food surplus in his TWOW Alayne sample chapter, and that Littlefinger is pressing certain lords to hoard it in order to drive up potential profits in the future and weaken his political opponents.

And while GRRM also made sure in ADWD to emphasize the dire food situation in both the Riverlands and at the Wall, it is only Jon who actually connects this to the Vale in his thoughts:

Our best hope may be the Eyrie. The Vale of Arryn was famously fertile and had gone untouched during the fighting. (ADWD, Jon IV)

He then proceeds to show us Jon negotiating for a loan with the Iron Bank and collecting (meagre) funds from the wildlings as part of the agreement to let them pass the Wall.

Bowen Marsh sighed. "If they do not slay us with their swords, they will do so with their mouths. Pray, how does the lord commander propose to feed Tormund and his thousands?" Jon had anticipated that question. "Through Eastwatch. We will bring in food by ship, as much as might be required. From the riverlands and the stormlands and the Vale of Arryn, from Dorne and the Reach, across the narrow sea from the Free Cities." "And this food will be paid for … how, if I may ask?" With gold, from the Iron Bank of Braavos, Jon might have replied. Instead he said, "I have agreed that the free folk may keep their furs and pelts. They will need those for warmth when winter comes. All other wealth they must surrender. Gold and silver, amber, gemstones, carvings, anything of value. We will ship it all across the narrow sea to be sold in the Free Cities." (ADWD, Jon XI)

(Jon. Why. Not. Tell. Him.???)

So GRRM obviously sets up the idea of money procured for the Watch in order to buy food, and food sitting by waiting to be bought in the Vale.

There are complications, of course: Jon's stabbing and potential loss of direct political influence in the North (at least for a while), the uncertainty of the loan going through given Tycho is still roaming around the North, Littlefinger's desire for maximum profit, alternative needs for the food such as the Vale's own starving wildlings which are the mountain clans....

But the connection is obviously there.

I doubt it will be handled as neatly as (recovered) Jon asking and them selling. Much more likely, it is Sansa herself who will try and forge a connection between the North and these food stores GRRM took so much care to inform us of through her POV. The bread riots in KL would have left a lasting impression, and there is the imagery of food used both to tempt her (wine, lemon cakes, pomegranates) and to depict her rejection of Tyrion:

He wanted something from her, but Sansa did not know what it was. He looks like a starving child, but I have no food to give him. Why won't he leave me be? (ASOS, Sansa IV)

(She ends up serving him overcooked peas during tense and unpleasant dinners.)

What happens when there is food and there are recipients she very much wants to feed, after reuniting with Jon and learning the true extent of the plight of her people?

It may be that Sansa herself will be pressured to pay a high price for that Vale food if she wants it to go North. Whether she ends up having to pay it, is a different matter, but it would absolutely set up a nice mirror between Jon and Sansa in the North toward Joffrey and Margaery in King's Landing, when she arrived with the bounty of the Reach to feed the cheering people - who had been starving due to her own family's blockade of the food supply in the first place. The dark irony of that might be turned on its head. A starving North, a princess with the key to their survival, hard choices, high drama.