#vale conspiracy

[agentrouka-blog]

Saw an old ask you answered about Mya and had to ask your thoughts on Myranda Royce. Like, she’s the character I’m the most curious about re: the winds of winter. We know from Dumb and Dumber that the Vale plotting for Sansa won’t actually be very long (I’m assuming she gets out of there right after the tourney and leaves for the wall /possibly with the help of Brienne and or Brynden/maybe after some shenanigans from the mountain clans) but from what we can assume Bronze Yohn will be on Sansa‘s side and help her out (like in the show). Now, Myranda's Nestor dad is indebted to LF (and friends with him!) and I find it unlikely that she would pick her father’s cousins side over her dads? With her being lady of the gates too. And at this point everyone is in agreement that Myranda knows that Alayne is Sansa (very obviously highborn, educated, not interested in the new high septon despite allegedly training to be a septa, knows Ned starks bastards name, LOOKS like Catelyn Tully whom she has met not even 2 years before). IMO what’s pointing towards Myranda actually being on our girls side is 1) LF warning Alayne about her, 2) Myranda herself introducing herself as wanting to be wicked, 3) the fact that Myranda being just another Margaery would be lazy and boring, 4) The failed Myranda/Harry betrothal being revealed almost immediately by her, so it can’t actually be a major point of contention for her, right? I don’t want to put too much stock in what the show did but them naming their annoying evil fucked up Ramsay–simp Myranda Royce does sometimes make me hesitate in putting my faith behind Myranda. Ultimately I think she will look out for herself most of all but I feel like her interests aline with Sansa and it will be a net positive. I mainly just want Sansa to have actual allies! Do you think the two branches of the Royce family could end up in agreement/be scheming against LF? After all, besides Bronze Yohn's friendship with NedCat, the Royces share blood with the Starks and their house motto is "We Remember“!

I think you hit the nail on the head with the concept of aligning interests.

Nestor, I don't think he's that good of an actor to be actively fooling Littlefinger himself while appearing to be flattered into complicity, but Myranda is sharp as a knife and clearly not quite satisfied with her lot in life of marrying old men her father picks out for her. But she seems too invested in Sweetrobin to really care that much about marrying Harry for his potential title, as opposed to simply a handsome dolt her own age. So whatever she cares about, it's not in opposition to either Sansa or Sweetrobin. She's capable of subtly interrogating Sansa without her even realizing it, and she has sat on this information for months now without making a move yet. Littlefinger considers her a threat, which is the greatest compliment imaginable, and he wouldn't do that if he thought she was easily manipulated or had goals he could easily assist her with.

If the show paid lip-service to Sansa's Vale plot by naming Ramsay's invented lover after her, I don't imagine it's because Myranda herself is secretly evil, but because she's one of the key figures in the Vale arc.

I imagine she is part of a larger conspiracy connecting her to Bronze Yohn and Anya Waynwood. She would be ideally placed to be a spy for them, and they have the resources she lacks to act on her own behalf and without her father's knowledge. A Myranda who assists the Lords Declarant in removing Littlefinger from power (the mark of a true patriot, honestly) is a Myranda who may yet be rewarded with a better marital match than Harry The Obsolete Heir. (Roland, the Waynwood heir? Andar, the Royce heir?)

[agentrouka-blog]

so how is sansa getting out of the vale?

Lots of options! I don't have one theory I am 100% commited to. Just building blocks that shift around in uncertain relation to each other.

#1 Mountain clans

What I think is likely is a confrontation between Vale nobility and the united mountain clans, during which "Alayne" will (be forced to) reveal herself as Sansa Stark, wife of Tyrion-son-of-Tywin their former ally. Tyrion is essentially the reason they are so well armed now. Timett son of Timett has been especially singled out in the text as a fierce leader returned from the war, and is known to Sansa personally in the context of Tyrion saving her from one of the beatings. They would know who she is, she would know them, and her marriage is an established fact. This title might buy her a position of relative safety, from which she might act as a negotiator to prevent bloodshed and reach a peaceful compromise to let everyone survive the winter. (This would mirror Jon at the Wall.) She might succeed or she might fail. The point would be to see her try. The mountain clans would make for an excellent optional escort through the winter mountains for our inexperienced traveller Sansa.

#2 Vale conspiracy

The Lords Declarant are unlikely to have actually given up trying to oust Littlefinger, who is busy trying to extend his influence over the Vale nobility. Whether Myranda, as a mirror to Arianne with Myrcella, is a part of that conspiracy or is playing her own game, is anyone's guess. But likely a number of people know Sansa's real identity, and will make it a factor in their plans. Removing her from Littlefinger's grasp would be a key in that, and revealing her identity would actually be a great way to force the Vale leadership into abandoning its fragile fealty to the Iron Throne by refusing to hand her over to Cersei, who is Littlefinger’s supporter. This does not necessarily translate to helping Sansa win back the North from the Boltons, but it would shake the status quo that so many Vale lords having been chafing against. Creating warm relations with the rebel North, potentially by wanting to send Sansa on to White Harbor or other Stark loyalists, might be a part of that. Ironically, having harbored and “protected” the Stark heiress might be the reason Littlefinger remains in any kind of power within the Vale, through a credible lack of loyalty to Cersei. This is good timing, since Aegon is about to topple her ranyway. 

#3 News from the North

The Bolton hold on the North as well as Stannis' grasp on the Watch are unstable, and interesting news (especially those concerning the presence of "Arya" or the reappearance of Rickon, or any future development concerning Jon Snow) are bound to make it into the Vale before long. Depending on where and when and how, Sansa may feel extremely motivated to go North even on her own, if she has an idea of where exactly she could go.

#4 Shady Knights

Not my favorite aspect of this, but I would be neglectful not to mention the presence of at least one identified bountyhunter (Ser Shadrich) at the Gates of the Moon, who knows Sansa's identity and might be waiting for an opportunity to act. But could one knight credibly transport an uncooperative Sansa over a long distance the way the Hound’s brute force could compel Arya, while needing to cross through entirely hostile territory (Mountains of the Moon, or the Littlefinger-controlled Vale)? A twist would be that it's not a bounty hunter at all but a Dontos-like figure offering escape to the North. But would Sansa trust such a ploy again? This aspect baffles me.

In any case:

After the Vale is rattled from its tense equilibrium by a confrontation on two fronts (mountain clans and Vale conspiracy), Sansa’s identity is revealed and she makes her way North with a comparatively small escort. Either with the blessing of leading Vale factions or entirely on her own with the mountain clans after a chaotic escape. Littlefinger either remains behind in a volatile position of power or he actually escorts her along for at least part of the journey.

[agentrouka-blog]

You say yourself that SweetRobin's death is going to put a wrench on LF's plans and not Harry 's . Maybe it makes narrative sense for him to die in order for Sansa to trigger something that the Vale is not safe for her anymore and she needs to flee just like Raff's death in Braavos and probably Hodor's death in Bloodraven's cave are going to trigger Arya's and Bran's respectively . Grrm also said that LF is going to come across many troubles in TWOW . Maybe take time to read Grrm's interviews before you come with your " everything will be all right " analysis. Harry's premature death doesn't bring any threat of danger to Sansa's anonymity but getting falsely implicated in SweetRobin's does and something that makes her departure in haste.

Could you tell me what would be the reason that makes Sansa leave the Vale early ? Looking at her TWOW Alayne Sample chapter, she is in a very safe space thanks to LF's hold on the Vale Lords. Sansa's safety in the Vale is tied to LF's power. Once he is outed , the Classist Vale lords wouldn't give 2 thoughts about his bastard daughter . If SweetRobin is surviving and everything is alright then it makes no reason for Sansa to leave because as long as the kid is alive, LF stays in power and her Alayne identity is a safety mask. Once he dies though, things are going to go south for both of them and probably would make Sansa journey North to sought the protection of her half brother.

Arya is staying in Braavos , Bran in the Bloodraven's cave and Sansa in Vale until something happens which threatens their own safety and make them leave these places in a hurry. For Sansa , SweetRobin's death followed by LF being ousted something which could be engineered by Yohn Royce and then LF trying to frame Sansa and dragging her with him could be the catalyst for her to escape . You can't have a shake of power in the Vale without SweetRobin's death.

Hello anon.

Look, I enjoy answering asks. They get my brain whirring and can be incredibly inspiring. I don’t mind contemplating ideas I disagree with, they help me understand why I disagree.

But this is my own personal blog where I enjoy analyzing the books and post for my own pleasure and you don’t have to read it and you most certainly don’t have to condescend to me.

Maybe take time to read Grrm's interviews before you come with your " everything will be all right " analysis.

Maybe make your own post analyzing GRRM’s interviews and then share it with the world. I specifically look at how GRRM works with foreshadowing in the books. That is my thing. What I enjoy. I take references to other things into account, but I certainly am not going to depend on GRRM’s inteviews and his careful dance between avoiding spoilers and guiding interpretation. So kindly take your impolite and entitled attitude and place it on a shelf. It really spoils what is otherwise an interesting ask.

Now to the content of your ask.

Sweetrobin dying makes no sense.

It’s not necessary. They don’t need to oust Littlefinger if Sweetrobin dies. He IS out and can leave in peace or stay and serve. Harry is the heir and he is an adult. No conflict, unless Littlefinger picks a fight he obviously can’t win, which is unlikely. Why would he?

The scenario you propose is convoluted because it contradicts itself. Why would anyone blame the guy who has no motive for Sweetrobin’s death, which everyone has been anticipating to begin with? How does Sweetrobin even die? Why would they bother to pin this on him? Why would LF then shift the blame to Sansa who can reveal her identity and testify against him regarding Lysa? The only reason she is going along with his story is to protect herself. If he turns on her, she turns on him. Being wanted for regicide by Cersei is trumped by being directly accused of murder in the Vale. How does Sansa even escape in that case, would she not be under supervision and or arrest?

It hampers future important plot involvement of the Vale by making them entirely hostile to Sansa if she flees under the suspicion of being Sweetrobin’s murderer. They are the only army in Westeros who are used to wintery conditions and to wildlings, and have ties to the Wall plot (via Waymar) and House Stark. If she doesn’t reveal her identity and just runs, they may come when Sansa calls later but then you have a super-boring “Oh, I didn’t kill him. Now fight the wights” anti-climactic brush-aside of the entire thing because they are obviously not turning back around when the dead are marching. Why bother?

It prevents Sansa from credibly bringing Littlefinger to justice in a way that matches foreshadowing because their relationship would already be irreparably broken. Why would he ever let his guard down around her in any way? She would have to capture him like a common brigand, which is a painful waste of an opportunity to see her actually outwit him in concert with her sister. Which is what the foreshadowing implies.

It is kind of lame if the kid everyone predicted to die since book one... just dies. All the build-up of Sansa’s relationship with the future lord of the Vale, her efforts to make him stronger, her mirror to Ned, they just evaporate. The sickly kid dies. Somehow everyone is shocked and surprised and it causes a crisis against all odds.

Alternative factors that would upset the status quo and could contribute to Sansa leaving:

A Vale Conspiracy to mirror the Northern Conspiracy to remove Sweetrobin from Littlefinger and depose him while the kid is obviously still alive (extra drama due to conflicting interests among the lords)

an intervention by someone like Yohn Royce who recognizes Sansa and knows the betrothal is impossible because she is already married

Harry dies and plans for Sansa’s path North need to change

an attack by the mountain clans causes chaos and prompts Sansa to reveal her identity to someone she recognizes (Timett, Chella, Shagga..)

an (attempted) kidnapping by a bounty hunter

Sansa realizes that Littlefinger is her enemy in a way that doesn’t openly break their relationship but causes her to clandestinely seek refuge elsewhere

political developments outside the Vale that change their plans

Any number of these - and likely ones I forgot - in any combination can serve to upset the status quo.

What it doesn’t depend on is Sweetrobin dying.

[agentrouka-blog]

Sansa remembers Bronze Yohn from when he came to Winterfell (and easily bested Ned in a spar) on his way to the Wall with Waymar.

What is he realizes or has realized who Sansa is?

We remember.

I think he recognized her right away, honestly.

"Lord Royce," she asked timidly, "will you have a cup of wine, to take the chill off?"

Bronze Yohn had slate-grey eyes, half-hidden beneath the bushiest eyebrows she had ever seen. They crinkled when he looked down at her. "Do I know you, girl?"

Alayne felt as though she had swallowed her tongue, but Lord Nestor rescued her. "Alayne is the Lord Protector's natural daughter," he told his cousin gruffly. (AFFC, Alayne I)

GRRM makes sure to mention his grey eyes.

Jon's eyes were a grey so dark they seemed almost black, but there was little they did not see. (AGOT, Bran I)

We never see his reaction because the conversation is derailed into disgusting comments about young Alayne, but after a tense confrontation, Bronze Yohn departs with this:

"There is no need. It is plain that he has won." Bronze Yohn's grey eyes considered Petyr Baelish. "I like it not, but it would seem you have your year. Best use it well, my lord. Not all of us are fooled." He opened the door so forcefully that he all but wrenched it off its hinges.

Uh huh.

It's particularly interesting that Lady Waynwood and Bronze Yohn are the two most stubborn enemies of Littlefinger among the Lords Declarant (a declaration to oppose him, essentially), and yet it is Bronze Yohn who hosts the melee that sees Harry the Heir knighted, nephew to Lady Waywood. And Harry and Lady Waynwood are the last to arrive at that tourney Alayne arranged, a whole month after the first arrivals.

Conspirators conspiring. I wonder how Harry fits into this. He doesn't seem to be included, by the way he acts.

Also, clever Myranda Royce, daughter of Nestor, whom LF bribed. Is she a "patriot" at odds with her father, or out for herself?

The Vale politics will be fun. It's almost sad that Sansa will be whisked away so soon.

[agentrouka-blog]

Do you think Lyn Corbray going to do something against LF and Alayne? I don't trust that man and even alayne was thinking after slightly mocking him that may be she shouldn't do it.

I don't know! I am completely undecided about both him and Anya Waynwood.

Lyn Corbray is a creepy, violent, poor second son, who supposdly relies on Littlefinger for "gold and boys and promises". But he seems to be genuinely angry that LF's matchmaking provided his brother with an impending newborn heir, robbing him of any future inheritance. That seems unusually sloppy of LF.

That plump bag of gold (or is it a lordship now, too?) offered for Sansa might seem tempting if LF should be misguided in his trust. He strikes me as much more of a threat than Shadrich, who wants only gold enough to get by.

But since GRRM has gone to the trouble of practically pointing it out, and it is unlike Littlefinger to miss that kind of obvious thing, I suspect it will be subverted in some way.

Maybe those "promises" are really the secret trump card keeping him in line. Maybe they are related to the fact that Catelyn's suggestions for Robb's designated heir focused on distant relations in the Vale: Waynwood, Templeton and Corbray. We know he is ambitious and wanted to marry Lysa.

Sansa Stark is a threat to such a potential promise of Northern inheritance unless Corbray downright marries her himself, in defiance of the Iron Throne. If LF told him about her true identity, Corbray has much to win and is biding his time. That would spell doom for Harry.

Heck, the idea could be to have Harry march North and die once the North is won, only for Corbray to step in as a distant "heir". This leaves Sweetrobin and the Vale for Littlefinger. Or so LF may have told Lyn, anyway.

That actually gives Sansa's teasing joke about a match for him a doubly sinister twist.

Anyway, that is one potential angle, but I really have no concrete ideas.