#theeu

[bristolforeurope]

The EU #TheEU #StopBrexit #Brexit #StopBrexitSaveUK #StopBrexitSaveBritain https://www.instagram.com/p/BxqSYCJn0Ny/?igshid=y5pvkx4od818

[babyawacs]

#reframed theyneed hedged scaled value generation of m odern value generation : doesnot make enough work for vast populations y e t : and the funding of the value gene ration as wellas the societies fromthat : nominal isnothing purchasingpower everything @eu_commission @eucouncil @euparl_en .@euparl_dk @all @world @women @girl @girls # theeu #the_eu was setup without legs to straightenout the economical carpet of the nationalists national interests

#reframed theyneed hedged scaled value generation of modern value generation : doesnot make enough work for vast populations y e t : and the funding of the value generation as wellas the societies fromthat : nominal isnothing purchasingpower everything @eu_commission @eucouncil @euparl_en .@euparl_dk @all @world @women @girl @girls #theeu #the_eu was setup without legs to straightenout the…

[babyawacs]

@eu_commission @eucouncil @euparl_en .@euparl_dk #th eeu #the_eu was setup without legs to straightenout the economical carpet of the nationalists national intere sts #keypoint allpathos was a lie based on j o i n t _t h e n _ value generation : backthen montanunion this is the critical part that each step was like hosting fools without legs that are a nuisance squid fundedby the firms they make jointlobbyism carpet straightening

@eu_commission @eucouncil @euparl_en .@euparl_dk #theeu #the_eu was setup without legs to straightenout the economical carpet of the nationalists national interests #keypoint allpathos was a lie based on j o i n t _t h e n _ value generation : backthen montanunion this is the critical part that each step was like hosting fools without legs that are a nuisance squid fundedby the firms they make…

[distrolord]

@XPLargePro #TheEU #Tour ✈️✈️ See Y’all in A Few Days 👓✈️🌐🌐 https://www.instagram.com/p/B2PFT_dA-oj/?igshid=1gy90i6n5ck5y

[citizentruth-blog]

Khashoggi Murder, but Not Yemen Crisis, Illicits Calls for Freezing Arms Sales to Saudi Arabia

After the murder of Jamal Khashoggi, multiple Western nations called for a pause in arms exports to Saudi Arabia but why doesn't the humanitarian crisis in Yemen illicit the same response? The Swiss government recently decided to pause exporting arms parts to Saudi Arabia due to the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, who was once the kingdom’s darling before turning into its strongest critic. The Swiss administration first halted arms export to Saudi Arabia in 2009 but was, until the recent announcement, still sending parts and munitions to Saudi Arabia. Switzerland is not the only country calling for a freeze in arm sales to Saudi Arabia after Khashoggi's murder.

Jamal Khashoggi

Khashoggi was a Saudi journalist who often criticized his country’s policies, including the kingdom’s military intervention in Yemen. The 59-year-old Washington Post columnist was killed while entering his country’s consulate in Istanbul on October 2. The latest statement from Turkish investigators said the prominent writer was choked a few minutes after entering the building and then dismembered. Saudi Arabia was slammed for being inconsistent in making statements about how Khashoggi died. Government officials in Riyadh, the capital of Saudi Arabia, also denied being the mastermind of the incident. Turkey claimed the order to kill Khashoggi came from the highest level of the Saudi government, not from Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman. The brutal incident has ruined the relations between Saudi Arabia and the West and triggered a call for arms sale bans to the oil-rich nation.

Who Else is Calling For Banning Arms Sales to Saudi Arabia?

A week ago, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said his country was ready to freeze an arms sales deal should Saudi Arabia prove to have misused the weapons. The young prime minister issued the statement following the mounting pressure to punish the kingdom after the killing of Khashoggi. Canada and Saudi Arabia signed an arms deal worth $12 billion in 2014. But the relations between the two nations became strained when the Saudi government froze its diplomatic ties with the North American nation due to human rights issues in August after Canada urged Riyadh to release human rights activists detained by the kingdom. Germany froze arms exports to Saudi Arabia and called on fellow European Union (EU) member countries to suspend arms sales until the murder case is solved. However, in Spain deputies voted against a proposal in Spain's parliament to cancel arms sales to Saudi amid the global outrage over the Khashoggi scandal. Spain and the Saudi government just agreed to a deal worth 1.8 billion Euros to supply Saudi Arabia with five navy ships. France and the U.K., among Riyadh’s biggest arms suppliers, have so far opposed Germany’s proposal to suspend arms sales. The latter’s bomb and missile’s sales to Saudi jumped 500 percent since the Yemen war broke out in 2015, according to a report in 2017. The United States, President Trump has not supported any initiatives to consider suspending arms sales to Saudi Arabia either. However, a bipartisan bill was put forward in the House calling for a freeze on all arms sales to Saudi Arabia upon its passing.

The World Unites to Condemn Saudi Arabia on the Khashoggi Incident But Remains Silent on Yemen

In late October, the United Nations warned the world that half the population of Yemen - 14 million people - are at risk of starvation which was an increase over their previous estimate that 11 million Yemenis were at risk of starvation. "Our revised assessment, the results of new survey work and analysis, is that the total number of people facing pre-famine conditions — meaning they are entirely reliant on external aid for survival — could soon reach not 11 million but 14 million," said U.N. Humanitarian Coordinator Mark Lowcock. "That is half the total population of the country." Yemen is on the brink of disaster due to the escalating conflict that erupted in 2015 when the Saudi-led coalition invaded the country after Houthi rebels took control of Yemen’s western territories and expelled then Yemen President  Abdrabbuh Mansour Hadi. Thousands of Yemenis have died since the war started, but the West remained silent. The U.S. and its European allies continued to supply weapons to Saudi Arabia and other Gulf nations in the coalition that is bombing one of the poorest countries in the Middle East and has killed innocent Yemen civilians.

So Why Is the Khashoggi Incident Seen as More Important Than the Endless Bloodshed in Yemen?

First, Khashoggi’s background. He befriended Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and the journalist maintained close ties with Saudi’s royal family until he lost favor with Mohammed bin Salman (MBS). Khashoggi then went into a self-imposed exile in the U.S. and continued to criticize the kingdom until his death. Second, the location of the murder. This complicates the situation since it happened in the Saudi consulate office in Istanbul, which is protected under international law. Despite whatever happened inside the building, Turkish officials and investigators are not allowed to enter it without permission from Saudi authorities. Last, the geopolitical impact of the murder and the future of MBS. The influential young prince condemned the killing and  called it “a disgusting incident.” However many suspect MBS' involvement in the murder and he has gone from an admired prince to a brutal despot in the eyes of much of the world. Riyadh arrested 18 people related to the murder on October 20. Erdogan has called for the 18 suspects to stand trial in Istanbul, where the prominent columnist was murdered. The 18 men implicated in the murder allegedly have special ties to MBS. Erdogan and Turkey may be using the Khashoggi murder as an opportunity to measure how powerful the prince is and to limit the reach of MBS and Saudi Arabia - Turkey's regional rival. Read the full article

[elliotdole]

🙌🏼 #theeU #universityofmiami #miami #theU #equinox #peopledontforget #superbad #tehehe #equinox #fitness #newportbeach (at Equinox Newport Beach)

[johnmauldin]

2017 Will Be A Pivotal Year For Europe

Many people in the EU disapprove of EU economic policies. Greece is by far the unhappiest with Brussels. Italy is next, with France and Spain not far behind. The UK, where people are angry enough to have voted themselves out of the EU, looks even-tempered in comparison.

That suggests to me that if you offered these other countries a chance to ditch the EU and reassured them that they wouldn’t cause the sky to fall, there are some who might take the leap.

Europe is likely to change drastically in 2017

It will be safe to say that 2017 will be a pivotal year for Europe. The UK will keep moving along the Brexit path; Marine Le Pen will have a real shot at taking power in France; and Italy's government could fall into Five Star's control.

Angela Merkel will be up for re-election in Germany and will likely win, but she could be forced into concessions we haven’t seen her make in the past.

As all this is going on, Europe will be glancing nervously both east and west. To the east, Vladimir Putin will be looking for ways to stay in power as energy prices remain soft. To the west, President Trump will be pushing NATO members to boost defense spending—unless they want the US to fold up its umbrella.

Most of those countries have zero room in their budgets for defense if they want to maintain spending levels on social welfare programs. Italy spends less than 1% on defense, and many other countries spend much less. Germany spends only a bit over 1%. (Just for the record, Canada is a member of NATO, and it spends exactly 1%.) 

NATO membership only partially overlaps with the EU. One big difference: Turkey is a key NATO ally but only a wannabe EU member. That’s going to mean some delicate negotiations between Ankara, Brussels, and other European capitals.

The investment consequences of all this are very much up in the air. The worst-case scenario is a Eurozone breakup and the collapse of the EU free-trade area. Or both could shrink as Italy and perhaps others leave.

Borders are back in style

The conclusion I keep coming back to is this: Borders are back in style. I think we may look back and see 2016 as the year in which those trends reversed. Nations are again raising border defenses against both immigrants and trade.

Tearing down the borders took decades, of course. They won’t all go back up right away. Some borders will be more open than others. Nonetheless, I think we are in the early stages of the formation of a different world power structure. How it differs will make a difference to your investments.

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[johnmauldin]

Italy’s “No” Vote Is Just the Beginning

GUEST POST BY ANTONIA COLIBASANU AND JACOB SHAPIRO

An important vote recently occurred in Italy. Italians said “No” to a referendum on government reforms. The vote was broadly viewed as a referendum on Prime Minister Matteo Renzi. He has since tendered his resignation.

The result of Italy’s referendum means three things. First, the slow devolution of the European Union rumbles on. Second, Italy has declared itself in open revolt internally and against the EU. This is a challenge not just for the EU, but for Germany in particular. Third, this is the beginning of a major political shift in the third largest economy in the Eurozone.

Italy will hold elections in 2017. It is unclear whether the political establishment will retain control. Parties like the Five Star Movement and Northern League advocate nationalist economic policies and a review of the EU. They could seize power. The damage already is done. Nationalist sentiment won’t go away soon.

Nationalist Momentum

This is the latest in the increasing power of European nationalist politics. Voters rejected Renzi’s proposal for reducing the Senate’s power. They opposed power transfers from regions to the central government in Rome.

By promising to resign, Renzi created major chance for nationalist parties in Italy to make their influence felt. The anti-system Five Star Movement and the Northern League turned the campaign into a rejection of the Renzi government.

Unlike Brexit, polls correctly predicted Italy’s outcome. Still, the margin was bigger than polls had predicted. A large number of Italian voters turned out to show contempt for the political establishment. The establishment erroneously believed that even if reform proposals failed, the political system would remain intact. But the opposite is happening.

Italy’s Banking Crisis

Italy is in the midst of a banking crisis. The proposed reforms to simplify decision making also attempted to fix the banking sector. Keeping investor sentiment strong is crucial. The amount of non-performing loans (NPLs) hasn’t increased in the last year and banks have started a recapitalization process to further consolidate to cut costs. But the banking sector remains fragile.

Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena, the country’s weakest major lender, is a test case for Italy. It is the first state-backed campaign to steady the banking sector and attempt to clean up the Italian banks’ 360 billion euros ($387 billion) of NPLs. While a debt-to-equity swap that ended last Friday managed to raise 1 billion euros of the 5 billion needed, a share sale to raise more capital likely won’t be launched soon.

The banking woes are not simply an Italian problem. Italy is the third largest economy in the eurozone. Both Germany and France are exposed to troubles in the Italian banking sector. The EU and Italy have negotiated solutions for over two years, with few tangible results.

Tensions over negotiations surfaced in 2016 between Renzi and German Chancellor Angela Merkel. The referendum was not only about the Italian people’s desire for change, it also was a message that Italy won’t accept German methods or directives from Brussels on how to fix Italy’s problems. The EU and Italy are playing a game of cat and mouse over the issue of NPLs. But the referendum is a clear signal that Italians want a government that will make decisions in terms of what is best for Rome.

A Power Shift?

All eyes should now be on the Five Star Movement. It has advocated a non-binding referendum on whether Italy should remain in the eurozone. The Northern League also supports such a referendum. Populist center-right party Forza Italia may support it given its criticism of EU common currency.

A caretaker government will now take the helm from Renzi. Flexible rules for a Monte dei Paschi bailout will be decided with the European Commission. Another Band-Aid solution will be administered for the banking sector. But mistrust in the Italian economy will increase. That drives higher interest rates on sovereign debt.

The vote against Renzi was partly caused by social problems, including high unemployment following 2008. Austerity measures and slow recovery have caused increasing distance between the public and the traditional political elite. That makes room for anti-establishment and nationalistic parties to appear.

Renzi’s resignation will lead to early elections next year. It is possible the political establishment will lose that vote as well. As a result, the Five Star Movement could take power. That scenario would change the way Italian domestic politics function. It also would change the nature of ties to Brussels and Berlin.

Investors don’t lose confidence when governments change. But they do lose trust when systems change and different government rules could be implemented. The establishment’s moves are meant to reassure investors. That tactic will work for several weeks, perhaps months. But Renzi leaving is not the end of political upheaval in Italy—it is the beginning. The shockwaves will be felt in Berlin and throughout the eurozone.

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