Louis Twitter Analysis: Comparative Notes
Looking at the 2011 and 2012 analyses separately provides some insight into the changing dynamics of the band, Harry & Louis and their increasing fame and modest!'s control.
But perhaps the most damning evidence of the publicity-driven scheme going on behind-the-scenes of @Louis_Tomlinson's twitter, his girlfriend's twitter and even his mother's twitter is only fully understood when comparing the patterns over time.
In 2011, Louis' tweets were a little erratic. There was no consistent tweeting pattern. It should stand to reason, then, that as the band got bigger and busier, the pattern might hold or become even more pronounced. However, that is not the case. The 2012 trend line shows a more consistent tweeting pattern, especially in the final 3 months of the year, the busiest 3 months the band has ever experienced.
The dip in July 2012 is interesting as this has been suggested as the time in which Louis gave up most of the control of his Twitter account to PR. This graph supports that theory given the increased consistency of the Tweets which suggests a social media campaign, rather than organic thoughts Tweeted to the masses as they occur.
In 2011, Louis' tweets to Harry tended to follow his total tweets. They were about 10% of his tweets every month. In 2012, they were less than 1% of his total tweets the entire year. Interestingly, 10% of Louis' tweets in the last half of 2012 were to Eleanor and about dispelling the "crazy Larry conspiracy."
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This is a graph showing Louis' tweets to/about his girlfriends vs. Harry spanning January 2011-December 2012. The differences are obvious.
In 2011, Louis tweeted almost exclusively to Harry in comparison to girlfriends. The spike as Elounor began is telling.
The break in the patterns truly begins in December 2011, which is when I believe a social media campaign was drafted and implemented. This included Eleanor getting a Twitter account, an apparent ban on Harry & Louis tweeting directly to or about each other and a plan to use Louis and Eleanor's accounts to promo certain products and artists.
Now here's where it starts to get really interesting.
Lookie there. Immediately following the first Eleanor article, the spike in promo tweets from @Louis_Tomlinson begins. And it spikes and spikes and spikes again.
The first spike coincides with the first month Louis began tweeting about Eleanor in earnest.
The second spike comes immediately following April 2012 and coincides with the all the gay in Australia/New Zealand.
There is another, smaller spike that comes the month Louis allegedly gave up most of the control of his twitter. Imagine that.
The final and most pronounced spike came the month of the VMAs, Taylor ramp-up and the "bullshit" tweet. It was also the beginning of the X-Factor season in the UK. We learned shortly after this spike in promo tweets for the X-Factor that modest! had lost that account.
While there appears to be a slide down into December, October and November still had the 2nd and 3rd highest number of promo tweets in 2012.
Most importantly, note how the tweets to/about Eleanor almost exactly mirror the trend line for the tweets to/about promotional things. This correlation suggests that @Louis_Tomlinson and @eleanorjcalder tweet each other during important promotional events. Does that sound like a genuine relationship to anybody? No. It doesn't. It's contrived and easily manipulated. If they go to these kinds of lengths to make it appear they are together in blatant coordination with promotional events and periods of time, that suggests, to me, that the relationship isn't a real one.
Wow. All the lines mirror each other exactly. Again,I don't think modest! controls Jay's Twitter account. But I think Jay does participate in the promotional aspect of this relationship, even more so than Louis. While this doesn't prove Louis and Eleanor's relationship is not real, it does incite some very serious questions about why Louis' mother only tweets her son's girlfriend when it's convenient for modest!'s bank account.
Now, here is a Google Analytics graph showing the trend line for searches of "One Direction" in the U.S. in 2012:
This graph also mirrors the trend line for the promo tweets and tweets to/about Eleanor from Louis and Jay's accounts, showing that, as interest in One Direction increases and wanes, the tweets from Louis and Jay seem to adjust accordingly. Sounds like someone (read: modest!) is monitoring the search trends and site analytics and adjusting their social media plan accordingly.
So there you have it.
