Boxing is unpredictable so stop trying to predict it
They are not going to like this one, because I’m speaking the truth. I’m sure Floyd said something like that, maybe Broner…
The B.O.R. Remember where you heard this acronym first, I give birth to it today, my reason for why even expert predictors, fluff it up. The B.O.R. is an ethereal webbing that fuses together the fragile balance that is, predicting fights. Read on…
I would one day like to be a Boxing Historian. To delve into the deepest crevasses of my brain and pluck out Boxing fact after fact. To know every war that’s taken place within the ring, every splash of blood that’s fragmented into globules upon the canvas. Boxing is the most beautiful sport in the world, it commands our respect. Its ferocity intense and it’s grandeur supreme. Gladiators; the fight.
The problem comes when those who would like to play God with the outcome of fights, myself previously included within the throng, try to think they are better than the sport. The prediction. Predicting for fun is fine. But If the reason you predict fights is to get them right, then stop doing it. Let me explain…
I read the excellent Boxing News recently and was almost drooling over the beauty of the writing when reading their Bradley vs Marquez prediction, the way the fight was surgically sliced apart, inspected up close, and analyzed was as is always the case in Boxing News magazine, true art in the form of cool solid print. So how could they have got a fight they analyzed so deeply, over two pages, so wrong? They are the experts? Marquez will win by “Ultimately clear decision” they said.
If they get predictions wrong, there’s no hope for the rest of us.
Out of all us, the magazines like Boxing News and Boxing Monthly should surely very very rarely get picks wrong, however the interesting thing is, I find their prediction ratio generally being the same as most other people who are involved within Boxing reporting, or just those who are fans. Be it the #doitforfreebrigade on youtube, expert trainers or analysts.
Most famous recent prediction error being from Doug Fischer of the ring magazine who respected boxing reporter Elie Seckbach called “the no 1 boxing expert in the world” he picked Canelo to beat Mayweather Jr. He was so confident in this, he said ya boy Canelo would defeat Mayweather in several video interviews. How could an expert in Boxing get it so fumblingly wrong?
David Haye vs Wladimir Klitschko one of the biggest Boxing magazines in the country, one of the biggest heavyweight fights of recent memory, epic night, historical event, they picked Haye. Nothing could have been further from the truth. Haye was totally dominated. Oh and I picked Haye too lol
There’s no mystery as to why these fumbles happen, not including fighter / fan bias etc. Outside of the most blatant of mismatches (and even they often surprise us) Boxing is, in the literal sense and the entertainment sense, unpredictable. This is why everyone averages roughly the same who knows a little about the sport, with their prediction ratio. I’d say off my head between 65 to 75% correct picks in fights. This is over a huge number of fights remember, not just the easy ones, or the ones you deleted off of a website or Youtube page you made. That’s a percentage plucked out the air but I’d argue it’s pretty close to spot on.
Over the course of around three and a half years on YouTube, I predicted almost every main televised English speaking fight bill in Boxing, and many foreign ones. I released way over 2000 videos. I can throw my hat into the ring on this one, and genuinely offer some words of advice to confused frustrated and embarrassed predictors on YouTube; blogging or in general.
I have seen time and time again, what I like to refer to as back trackers; damage controllers. You tubers, bloggers and so called experts who Micheal Jackson moonwalk their way out of wrong predictions. I have felt the warm prickly embarrassment of wrong predictions many times over my three and a half years on YouTube. It’s not a nice spotlight to sit under, however in general my entire self, as a whole is literally an awkward walking cringe bomb, so I could usually slither my way out of wrong predictions by just being a bit of a prat.
The more serious predictors, like Richard Dwyer, the most popular Boxing analyst on You tube, have a particularly tough time of it when they pick a wrong fight, especially when they break down a fight so well. Dwyer for the record being pretty much the only person I saw online who picked Tony Thompson to KO David Price first time around, an amazing prediction, a man with a Boxing trainer like knowledge of the sport and it’s intricacies. In reality Dywer simply falls to the acronym I created, the B.O.R
The Boxing Outcome Ratio.
Other predictors tend to end a video with “im picking fighter A to win, however i wouldn’t be surprised if fighter B takes it” this is what I like to call in some cases the embarrassment buffer, again something I’m certain I’ve probably done more than once in my predictions. In short, covering your own ass. Or the ever popular “I predict fighter A but fighter B of course can always win by KO” Thus lending an easy escape narrative for their post fight video or report. When I say their, again I include the old me. It was cringe worthy at times in all fairness.
I used to have to explain myself “I hold my hands up” I would proclaim in a meek manner, my fat forehead glistening with a nervous sheen of sweat. How could I get a prediction so wrong? I then pieced the puzzle together and realised everyone seems to average out the same with their prediction picks, even experts. Boxing by it’s very nature, it’s speed; the variables; the mindset of the fighter; their mental and physical impairments we would never know about in some instances when picking who will win.
Styles make fights, but they don’t guarantee the outcome. I’m also certain many people don’t even know what that saying actually means, that’s for another blog lol
Many predicted Marquez to beat Bradley on October the 12th. They made video predictions, they wrote articles. Yet ya boy Timothy “Pacquiao” Bradley did something very few expected, he out thought, out fought, out hustled and at times, actually out countered Marquez in the ring. Why did the so called experts miss this? It’s because Boxing is insanely physical, but it is also an entity; an art.
We watch it because of the very fact that it can’t be predicted. Think about it, that excitement only those who know, feel when the first bell rings; you feel your own heart drumming against your chest plate. You literally hear the blood pump through your neck with nerves, and you aren’t even fighting. The fighters circle each other like like feral animals. That excitement is because in all truth we don’t know what is going to happen.
Adulation is the reason for most peoples predictions. It becomes more about their prediction, than it does about the actual fight. Sadly, I slipped down this treacherous slope. My research become more frantic, more in depth. Most fights I would be lucky enough to predict right if I’m honest, but still that same respect demanding ratio Boxing imposes on predictors; the B.O.R. would rule supreme. My correct and incorrect predictions were composed of internal elements that balanced out something like part boxing knowledge, part knowledge of the individual fighters and the rest pure luck. My correct predictions were not because I was a Boxing expert, so why was I getting the outcome correct in a lot of my fight predictions. Here’s why…
Once the bell goes, anything can happen. These are not my words, these are the words of the highest level trainers, Boxers; people who have actually been in the ring.
To get a prediction correct can leave an impression on those you have barked your amazing Boxing knowledge at over and over; show and prove time, and you showed. It makes you look like an expert, or that you know about Boxing that little bit more than the next person. That is until you get a prediction wrong, it has happened to you in the past, it will happen again. If it hasn’t happened to you yet, then you haven’t been predicting many fights. Some people have the added knowledge of having been a true boxing historian, trainer or former Boxer which I believe would increase their ratio by a few notches, but still even these guys get it wrong as I discuss in a little while.
I truly believe most predict simply for the Kudos shower after wards; to be able to boast. Especially Youtube channels with a lot of people subscribed and watching them, or prominent article writers. I have seen channels actually go back and adjust prediction videos (via changeable on screen text) - simply to cover their embarrassment, the prediction means so much to them it can be life or death. I can confidently say I rarely back tracked, because I find those who do that with incorrect predictions, abhorrent. Out of control ego’s trying to salvage any scraps from their prediction, no, you got it wrong, you’re not a special or unique boxing mind. We’re all the same matey, move on.
I had to ask of myself what comes first? My love of Boxing? Or my love of getting a prediction right? / Youtube? It was then, in actually asking that question - comparing my glorious sport with a social media video uploading site, that I knew something was wrong; that it was best to leave the Youtube Boxing Community for half a year to simply enjoy Boxing like I used to, and it was the best decision I ever made regarding this Youtube shiz..
If you can look deep within yourself reading this, and you predict fights in some manner for public consumption, what would your answer be for the question “why do you predict fights for public consumption”. Probably to get them right? Correct? That to me, is when it can become more about loving your predictions than loving than the sport of Boxing. If my prediction record which is very much public and out there was any worse than any other predictors, then perhaps an accusation of “you only say stop predicting because you’re getting them wrong you numpty” could be valid, however I’m not. Which is the central point of this article. Anyone can have a bash at a prediction who knows a little bit about Boxing and get it right over the most cultured of Boxing anoraks.
The best experts out of all of us, Boxers themselves, when a Mic is shoved in their face mid show and they are asked to predict the outcome of a fight, why do they often place money on the wrong Thoroughbred? How is it Boxers them selves, are submissive to the all powerful B.O.R. Boxing Outcome Ratio. I have often sat in muted embarrassment when a big fight has finished on Sky and we are taken back to the studio to have to watch the poor pugilists in crisp suits bob and weave their way out of an incorrect prediction. If there’s any type of person who should have a 99.9% prediction ratio, every single time they predict, it’s Boxers. But this is not the case. Not even close.
Proof of every one of my predictions is still currently available online (until youtube close my old channel down, been a bit naughty there) My ratio once again, fell in line under the authority of the Boxing Outcome Ratio. In other words, pretty much the same as every one elses give or take a fight or two. The B.O.R. Is a silent element within nature, it has no feeling or taste. Touch or smell. It’s just there. Sitting, watching. It’s always existed, to keep those who attempt to predict fights, humble.
The B.O.R. Boxing Outcome Ratio. You can’t escape it…
I now prefer to look at how both fighters can get the upper hand in a general breakdown of various situations within the fight, rather then predicting an exact outcome. I expect over time perhaps other Youtubers online will follow suit with this practice I’ve begun of breaking down fights, explaining how both can win as opposed to 100% accurate ass predictions lol Also a breakdown of how a fight plays out can be more impressive than some random fella having a stab picking a big fight out come. Flip a coin, who wins.
A general breakdown works better I feel, not only because it saves embarrassment when like every other person; expert or not, you pick a fight horribly wrong.
Way more than that, I avoid rock solid predictions more because it takes me back to that essence of why I watch fights in the first place, not to hope my predicted fighter wins…but because I’m a fan of Boxing.
Not an analyst, just a fan.
© Wingy 2013
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