Is congress in position to give a lecture on GDP to MODI govt?
We live in an era of technology where information (Especially Negative information) travels faster than light. GDP growth rate of India have been a hot topic for media houses and Indian people around the world. People, especially congress is busy in targeting Modi government on GDP growth rate, but the question is are they really in a position to do that? How did the GDP graph look like in their tenure? Let's dig deeper into how it looked like then. Also, Is it a failure of Modi govt? How we as a nation can help?
As per Wikipedia, India's GDP growth rate for the first quarter of financial year 2019-20 is 5%. This is a fall from 8.17, 7.16 and 6.92 in the years 2016, 2017 and 2018. This is the lowest GDP growth rate India have seen under Modi govt. This is definitely alarming as it has been declining since last 3 years, the current GDP growth rate of India looks similar to India's GDP in 2011 and 2012. It looks like it is progressing towards least in the decade, however, we still can not call it as yeal 2019 is still in progress.
Is it a failure of Modi government?
Lower GDP growth rate is always the government’s responsibility at the end, but we should think twice before calling it a failure of Modi government. From the year 1961 to 2018, India has seen so many fluctuations in GDP rate. In fact, we have seen GDP in negative numbers in the years 1965, 1972 and 1979. In the last 58 years, it was first time between 2012 to 2016 when GDP continuously went up for 4 years. It was Modi government when GDP went up for 3 years straight in 2014, 2015 and 2016. Also, the growth in 2013 and 2014 was also an impact of Modi wave across India.
India’s GDP has seen many steep falls before. Following are some examples,
1. Fall to 5.2 in 2011 from 8.49 in 2010.
2. Fall to 3.08 in 2008 from 7.66 in 2007.
3. Fall to 3.84 in 2000 from 8.84 in 1999.
4. Fall to -5.23 in 1979 from 5.71 in 1978.
Above are just a few examples, India has faced. We have more instances like this than we can even remember. Looking at the past trends, one can not help but notice that till now Modi government is able to successfully avoid a steep fall in GDP which none other prime ministers in india have able to.
Also, history tells that, India faces a steep fall in GDP in every 8-10 years. As we saw in 2008 (3.087), 2000 (3.84), 1991(1.05), 1982(3.47) and so on. As per the trend, India should faced a fall in between 2016 to 2018. So, far the Modi government have been able to avoid a steep fall, but it has been a gradual decline.
So, is it a failure of Modi government? It depends on how you define failure. If we look at past trends, this government has performed better than predecessors. This government has broken previous trends in terms of GDP growth rate over the years and falls. Both of these looks more on the governments' favor. I wouldn’t call it a failure yet unless it goes below 4.5 in coming years.
How we as a nation can help?
There are many factors which affect the GDP. past trends have shown that whenever we have lost our faith in government, whenever there has been a negative wave, we have faced a huge fall. whether it be in 1997, 2000, 2002 or 2008. We should avoid all sort of rumors, try to contribute what best we can for the nation and trust the government.