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F E A T U R E S
P O D C A S T
T A P E B R E A K E R
S Q U A K B O X
S O F T - H A ND S
R E S O U R C E S
C O N T A C T
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We switched things up this week and did a preview show for week 14 including in-depth coverage of Ravens-Dolphins, Chiefs-Cardinals, Seahawks-Eagles and Steelers-Bengals.
After a somewhat-brief hiatus, The 819 Podcast has returned. I (Alex) got a job as a player-participation analyst for ProFootballFocus.com so that's the reason for the gap in episodes. I just didn't have time to work and edit the podcast but thankfully, the always-reliable Joe Roche has enough free time now that he's able take over the duties full-time.
We should now be returning to our regular weekly schedule. Thanks to anyone who gives this a listen after we went A.W.O.L. with no notice.
Topics Covered: (Seattle are for real) - (A Tale of Two Ryans: Rob and Matt Mix Things Up Down South) - (Eagles? Eagles? Bueller?) - (Andy Reid's Negligence) - (Buffalo's Big Week) - (TOLZIEN DOESN'T COUNT!) - (Edelman is the Alex Smith of wide-receivers) - (I don't know where to start with the Giants) - (Ryan Fitzpatrick is 1-0 and that's all that matters) - (SPEEDROUNDSPEEDROUND)
We did it! We survived the NFL off-season! To celebrate, I sat down this morning and wrote a 6,000 word 32 team NFL season preview!
For each team I gave best and worst possible outcomes as well as a round-up of who will take home the end of year awards and a way too early Super Bowl pick. The best and worst outcomes for each team are an attempt to deflect any claims of bias I may have for certain teams. The awards are just comprised of educated guesses at what could play out. And the Super Bowl pick is not something anyone here should put money on. I defer all responsibility for monetary losses to your respective next of kin.
Until we meet at our inevitable court hearing for favourite team defamation, loss of income, or extreme boredom at the length of this article, I hope you enjoy this preview and tonight's Packers-Seahawks kickoff game. FOOTBALL!
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AFC EAST
Buffalo Bills
Best Case Scenario: 7-9
Worst Case Scenario: 1-15
It all comes down to not knowing how EJ Manuel will perform in his second year. We say second year, when really he only played 10 games as a rookie. In the preseason, he looked awful. Slow eyes lead to wobbly throws hitting linebackers. On offense, Sammy Watkins will either pull this team (and Manuel) up by their bootstraps or be dragged mercilessly into the ground by poor quarterback play. On defense, they're going to miss Kiko Alonso, Jairus Byrd and former defensive co-ordinator Mike Pettine. It could be a long season in Buffalo, where near-mediocrity is the best possible outcome. But if they do end up with the worst record in the NFL, look for Cleveland fans to be grinning from ear to ear as they hold the Bills' first pick in next year's draft.
Needs to step-up: EJ Manuel
Key Rookie: Sammy Watkins
Underrated Talent: Kyle Williams
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Miami Dolphins
Best Case Scenario: 11-5
Worst Case Scenario: 4-12
If all goes to plan for Miami, they'll have a potent offensive attack backed up with a strong pass-rush. It's not inconceivable to think that this time next year we will be talking about Ryan Tannehill as one of the top young quarterbacks in the league. This could be a breakout year that puts him alongside Kaepernick, Wilson and Luck in terms of respect. In order for that to happen, they'll have to protect him. The Miami offensive line last year was made of papier-mâché yet had the off-field troubles of Guantanamo Bay. If they can improve there, and it would be hard not to, then it's easy to see this team being much closer to their best record scenario as opposed to their worst.
Needs to step-up: Entire O-line
Key Rookie: Jewan James
Underrated Talent: Brent Grimes
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New England Patriots
Best Case Scenario: 14-2
Worst Case Scenario: 9-7
The fact that the worst case scenario for this team still results in a winning season is a testament to the Bill Belichick - Tom Brady era in Foxboro. The 9-7 record outlined above would seemingly be possible even with Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback. If you have any doubts, look at the 11-5 record posted in 2008 with Matt Cassel stepping in for an injured Brady. In recent years, the defense hasn't had the skill to carry this team but the addition of Darelle Revis in the offseason changes everything. If they can generate enough pressure up front, it should make the opposing team foolish enough to force the ball into Revis' side of the field. At the end of the day, the Patriots are the Patriots. New England hasn't had a losing record in 14 years. It's going to be a good season even if it's not a great one.
Have you ever seen a division with so many questions at the quarterback position? It's clear that the New York Jets are thankful that the Browns exist because without them, they'd be the laughing stock of the the NFL in terms of QB “controversies” in recent years. Thankfully, Geno Smith has looked like he might be able to pull this team out of that hole. He looked far better in the preseason and hopefully with a beefed up receiver group (read as: without Stephen Hill) and a refueled running game with Chris Johnson, this team should at least be able to keep some defenses on their heels. Unfortunately, their own defense, mainly the secondary, has resorted to a 'Scrap-Heap Challenge' approach to team building. Unless there are major surprises in that area, an even number of wins and losses is the absolute ceiling.
Needs to step-up: Anyone in the secondary
Key Rookie: Calvin Pryor
Underrated Talent: Kenrick Ellis
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AFC NORTH
Baltimore Ravens
Best Case Scenario: 11-5
Worst Case Scenario: 5-11
I don't know what this team's identity is. They want to be a ground-and-pound team but lack a good running game. They pay Joe Flacco like a franchise quarterback but lack the weapons to facilitate that level of play. They want to be a tough defense, but their pass rush will be coming from a pair of players over 30 in Terrell Suggs and Elvis Dumervil. Something has to give. Generally with teams like this, they fall into a down year and this could be that year. Or perhaps Gary Kubiak's new offense could be just what this team needs. It wasn't that long ago that the Texans, under Kubiak, defeated the Bengals in a playoff game. He could be just what this team needs to build an identity, and build a run back to the playoffs.
Needs to step-up: Matt Elam
Key Rookie: C.J. Mosley
Underrated Talent: Lardarius Webb
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Cincinnati Bengals
Best Case Scenario: 10-6
Worst Case Scenario: 5-11
This team has lost both of it's co-ordinators, its best player (Geno Atkins) is coming off ACL surgery and their most recent game was a playoff loss that cast doubt in the fans' mind that Andy Dalton can ever be anything more than a regular season caretaker. After three straight years of playoff appearances, it's logical to think this team is due for a let down. The core of their roster is mostly the same, or better, than previous years but the scheme change on both offense and defense is worrisome. Hue Jackson should alleviate some of the pressure from Dalton with a re-emphasised run game but the loss of Mike Zimmer as defensive co-ordinator is huge. If the defense falters even a little, they'll be forced to play from behind, which means Dalton will be blitzed more. We all know what happens after that.
Needs to step-up: Andy Dalton
Key Rookie: Jeremy Hill
Underrated Talent: Vontaze Burfict
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Cleveland Browns
Best Case Scenario: 10-6
Worst Case Scenario: 2-14
The scenarios for this team have so many variables to consider in every game. The difference between Johnny Manziel and Brian Hoyer as the starter changes the style of this team so much in terms of explosiveness and reliability. For the best case scenario, I chose the wins based on which quarterback I would prefer for each match-up. For their worst case scenario, I disregarded the quarterback position entirely. The unpredictability of this team at this point in the year is what's going to make them fun to watch regardless of how it plays out. The Hoyer Hour and Manziel Mania will inevitably have crossover episodes. Both players have their supporters, but the only supporter that really matters is head coach Mike Pettine. He worked magic with Buffalo's defense last year and did the same under Rex Ryan at the Jets. I'm predicting a similar upgrade here, but ultimately he will be judged by how he manages the offense.
Needs to step-up: An outside receiving threat
Key Rookie: Johnny Manziel (obviously)
Underrated Talent: Jabaal Sheard
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Pittsburgh Steelers
Best Case Scenario: 12-4
Worst Case Scenario: 5-11
The biggest thing that sticks out about this team is how brutal their schedule is towards the end. After their week 12 bye, they face the Saints, Falcons, Chiefs and the Bengals twice. Every one of those games could be a loss. They started poorly last season and could end up finishing badly this year. But the most logical scenario is mediocrity, something which the team has experience with in recent years. They spent their top two picks on injecting youth onto an aging defense and as such, it could return to championship form. Rookie linebacker Ryan Shazier will be a rare out-of-the-gate starter for the defense and should bring some explosiveness at a position of need. When at the top of their game, Pittsburgh can run the table. The problem is inconsistency. This is a team that lost to the Vikings, Raiders and Titans but somehow pulled out victories against the Packers and Bengals. Inconsistency is entertaining but not how you build championships. They need their defense to hold the line, Roethlisberger to stay healthy and not let Todd Haley trip over himself.
Needs to step-up: Jarvis Jones
Key Rookie: Ryan Shazier
Underrated Talent: Jason Worilds
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AFC WEST
Denver Broncos
Best Case Scenario: 14-2
Worst Case Scenario: 9-7
If they have Peyton Manning, they're not gonna be discounted in a single game except maybe visiting Seattle in Week 3. It's probable that they play to a superior level to everyone in the conference and lock up a first-round bye in the playoffs. This team only got stronger in free-agency but looming suspensions for Wes Welker could make them miss Eric Decker in the opening stretch. Even when this offense will be at its worst, it should still have a trio of reliable targets in Emmanuel Sanders, Demaryius Thomas and Julius Thomas. It's massively unlikely that they put up record offensive numbers for a second year in a row but an enhanced defense should mean that they don't have to. Prying Aqiq Talib away from their biggest rival and signing an aging Demarcus Ware for one last run at glory might provide enough of a spark to get them back to the big game. Manning is 1 for 3 in Super Bowls to date. It's clear that he doesn't want to retire known as anything other than a champion.
Needs to step-up: Emmanuel Sanders
Key Rookie: Bradley Roby
Underrated Talent: Louis Vasquez
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Kansas City Chiefs
Best Case Scenario: 10-6
Worst Case Scenario: 5-11
I'm a huge Alex Smith believer, but even I must admit this team is due to regress. After an 8 win improvement last season, they're due to pull back a little. They lost a huge chunk of starters on the offensive line and didn't add anything to the wide-receiver position, a distinct weakness on last year's team. Instead, they opted to build on their strengths and drafted pass-rusher Dee Ford in the first round and speedster De'Anthony Thomas later on to enhance their special teams and speed-ground attacks. If this team had even a middling receiver group, then we could be excited about what's to come but considering Alex Smith's greatest strength is understanding his limitations, the best that Chiefs fans can hope for is that they don't fall too far from grace.
Needs to step-up: Donnie Avery
Key Rookie: Dee Ford
Underrated Talent: Dontari Poe
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Oakland Raiders
Best Case Scenario: 8-8
Worst Case Scenario: 2-14
Every year it seems the Raiders aspire to be a middle-of-the-pack franchise. Their offseason moves rarely inspire confidence; a mixed bag of aging veterans and speedster unproven rookies. They could have gone the same route this year, and in terms of free-agency they most certainly did but their draft easily looks like their best in a while. 2nd round quarterback Derek Carr will be starting from Week 1 because they have a pair of Matts at backup, Schaub and McGloin, who don't look capable of outplaying him. 5th overall pick, Khalil Mack, should step in right away and make an impact. If they can squeeze what's left out of guys like Justin Tuck and Lamarr Woodley, they should surprise a few teams. There's always one or two Raiders games every year where they cause an upset.
Needs to step-up: James Jones
Key Rookie: Derek Carr
Underrated Talent: Marcel Reece
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San Diego Chargers
Best Case Scenario: 11-5
Worst Case Scenario: 4-12
If there is regression with this team, there's a sense it might be drastic. They overperformed last year thanks mostly to the emergence of Keenan Allen and a huge uptick from Philip Rivers. They'll need to manufacture a stronger pass-rush to supplant a secondary that added Brandon Flowers and rookie Jason Verrett. The defense needs to find better play on the back end if the front seven don't get substantial pressure on the opposing team's QB. With the Broncos still on pace to dominate the conference, it's unlikely this team will top them in the division. However, a wild-card spot is a very realistic expectation, even if it means getting there with a worse record than last year.
Needs to step-up: Melvin Ingram
Key Rookie: Jason Verrett
Underrated Talent: Sean Lissemore
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AFC SOUTH
Houston Texans
Best Case Scenario: 10-6
Worst Case Scenario: 5-11
Other the front seven on defense, does this team have a strength right now? With either Ryan Mallett or Ryan Fitzpatrick starting at quarterback, defenses can stuff the box and shut down their run game. Andre Johnson and DeAndre Hopkins are in different stages of their career but could provide a potent receiver combination if the team can find someone to get the ball to them. On defense, the aforementioned front seven could be better than anyone in the league but the backend will need to rely on pressure from the others in order to hold up. Ultimately, I think they're just good enough to be able to do that. Having both J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney on the same team is almost unfair. It's the biggest defensive advantage in the league. Victories will be earned based on how effectively they utilise these two behemoths. At worst, this team should take 2nd place in a poor division, which might be achievable with a 5-11 record.
Needs to step-up: Ryan Fitzpatrick
Key Rookie: Jadeveon Clowney
Underrated Talent: DeAndre Hopkins
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Indianapolis Colts
Best Case Scenario: 14-2
Worst Case Scenario: 8-8
Would it be insane to call the Colts the 3rd best team in the AFC? Not with Andrew Luck at the helm it's not. They should wrap up this division even with questions surrounding nearly every position except quarterback. This team is a true example of how good a team can be with the addition of a franchise player like Luck. He carried the team for most of last year and will likely have to do the same again this season. The defense has holes, and could subsequently be the cause of this team's demise. But when it comes down to it, I'd just never put money on Andrew Luck losing. He's the kind of quarterback that gives his team hope in every game. Going into his third year, he's due to be considered among the top guys like Drew Brees, Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers.
Needs to step-up: Hakeem Nicks / Trent Richardson
Key Rookie: Jack Mewhort
Underrated Talent: Vontae Davis
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Jacksonville Jaguars
Best Case Scenario: 8-8
Worst Case Scenario: 4-12
This might be the first recorded instance of a media consensus for starting a rookie 2nd string quarterback in the season opener. Nobody seems to have any doubts that Blake Bortles should start right away except the person in charge of that decision. It's hard to fault the staff though, because if they start Bortles and he blows it, then they're out of a job. If they keep him on the bench all year, like they have publicly stated, then it buys them at least one extra season in their respective positions. That said, they'll be hard pushed to keep Bortles off the field if the current media and fan pressure stays at its current level. The Jaguars are a young team, and they have immense potential but even the most die-hard fan will admit that it's highly unlikely that they can be a contender. The coaching staff is good, the defense is a lot better than given credit for and the young quarterback looks like he could provide long term success to a snake-bitten franchise. Just not quite yet.
Needs to step-up: Toby Gerhart
Key Rookie: Marquise Lee
Underrated Talent: Chris Clemons
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Tennessee Titans
Best Case Scenario: 9-7
Worst Case Scenario: 2-14
Is there a team that draws less media interest than the Tennessee Titans right now? Even the Jaguars and Browns are getting attention, but the Titans are nowhere to be found when you turn on NFL Network. We don't really know who they are. They don't have any household names. They haven't been one of the best or worst teams in the league. They're just kinda ... there. Titans fans need this season to go one of two ways. They need a breakout year from Jake Locker where he proves he can run an offense well enough to compliment a stable defense. Or they need a total collapse where they clean house and at least know what their weaknesses are. Right now, their main problem is questions. Is Locker good enough? Who can put this team on the map? Is the coaching staff up to it? For better or worse, I think this is the year we find out who the Tennessee Titans really are.
Last year, this defense was the worst in the history of the NFL. This year, they're probably going to be worse. They lost significant pieces in Demarcus Ware and Sean Lee. Those guys aren't easily replaceable. They're going to be bad. It's almost a given at this point. The only question is how much of that will be just their defense or will the offense face a depression too? Tony Romo is coming off back surgery which means this team is one missed block away from Brandon Weeden starting. Thankfully, their offensive line is one of the best in the league and should do a reasonable job protecting Romo's surgically repaired spine. In recent years, we watched “America's Team” flail like a herring pulled from icy waters. 'Dallas' may have been cancelled but the Cowboys are still on TV every week this season. The schadenfreude may be too much to resist.
Needs to step-up: 11 players on defense
Key Rookie: Anthony Hitchens
Underrated Talent: Travis Frederick
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New York Giants
Best Case Scenario: 10-6
Worst Case Scenario: 3-13
The New York Giants' finishing records for the last five years: 8-8, 10-6, 9-7, 9-7, 7-9. A blissful picture of mediocrity hidden behind a giant poster of Ahmad Bradshaw sitting down for the go ahead score in the 2011 Super Bowl. There is constant confusion as to whether this team is a wolf or a sheep and whether or not their wardrobes are correct. The Giants could continue last year's dismal performance into this season and spell the end of the Coughlin era in New York. Alternatively, Eli Manning could have a bounce back year if he and his teammates grow accustomed to the new offense installed under Ben McAdoo. Big Blue is tough to read. It wouldn't be a surprise to see another deep playoff run, but it's also easy to imagine someone other than Tom Coughlin's patented rosy cheeks calling the shots this time next year.
Needs to step-up: Will Beatty
Key Rookie: Andre Williams
Underrated Talent: Prince Amukamara
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Philadelphia Eagles
Best Case Scenario: 12-4
Worst Case Scenario: 5-11
This year, we find out if Chip Kelly is a genius or if that was just a case of well placed lightning. Is one offseason enough for the rest of the teams to become wise to Chip's winning ways? It's probably a combination of yes and no. Certainly teams will have had time to study up on what makes his relatively simple offense so explosive but at the same time, he too has had another year under his belt to install wrinkles which counter what the defense think they know. In 2013, the Eagles were extremely lucky with dropped interceptions and a lack of injuries. Kelly's system requires top-level offensive line play in order to stay productive. An injury or two there could derail this team in major way. It's hard to justify buying in on Kelly's scheme just yet but the Eagles look like top-dogs in the East once again.
Needs to step-up: Jeremy Maclin
Key Rookie: Jordan Matthews
Underrated Talent: Brandon Boykin
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Washington F.C.
Best Case Scenario: 9-7
Worst Case Scenario: 4-12
The absence of Mike Shanahan's senility may not be the best thing for Washington. Mainly because they hired dull-as-dishwater Jay Gruden to replace him and sometimes a little crazy works for football teams. Washington had no first-round draft pick this year and for a team with a lot of holes to fill, they really could have used one, or ten. No quarterback had a faster fall from greatness than Robert Griffin III did in 2013. Hampered by injuries and the bad side of Shanahan's craziness, he didn't play often and when he did, it was hardly inspiring. This year, the addition of DeSean Jackson should soothe the painful lack of offensive production. Anything other than a season that nets them a top 10 draft pick should be considered a success. The new coaching staff will need time to churn this roster into something of their own. They lack a lot of pieces, but if RGIII plays like he did in his rookie year and the team can tailor the play-calling to his strengths, they'll give the rest of the division a scare or two in December.
Needs to step-up: Robert Griffin III
Key Rookie: Bashaud Breeland
Underrated Talent: Alfred Morris
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NFC NORTH
Chicago Bears
Best Case Scenario: 12-4
Worst Case Scenario: 6-10
This is the best the Bears have been in a long time. With added pieces on defense and what looks to be a formidable trio of receiving options in Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffrey and Martellus Bennett, this could and should be Chicago's year. They're not indisputably the best at any position but they have upper-level talent all over the field. The fact is; Jay Cutler needs to string this one together. He hasn't played a full season since 2009 and that was the year he lead the league in interceptions. The front-office has gotten rid of every excuse to lose and now it's up to Cutler. The defense isn't amazing but it's definitely improved. The window is closing for a championship in Chicago. It needs to be now. And it needs to be Cutler.
Needs to step-up: Jay Cutler
Key Rookie: Ego Ferguson
Underrated Talent: Matt Slauson
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Detroit Lions
Best Case Scenario: 11-5
Worst Case Scenario: 4-12
Detroit are so happy that Jim Schwartz is gone. Usher in the Caldwell era! This team is has the weirdest bias of offensive firepower to defensive ineptitude in recent years. The Lions have used a lot of high first-round picks yet still don't seem to be able to crack the secret to roster construction. This year, they decided to just go all-in on offense and hope that they can outscore everyone else on defense. By the looks of it, they're copying the same style of roster that Peyton Manning had with the Colts. Build an explosive offense, spend some picks on the defensive line and hope the rest takes care of itself. Matt Stafford isn't Peyton Manning, but Manning never had a receiver like Calvin Johnson either. It's a risky proposal and it's yet to pay off for the Lions. If they don't suffer another late collapse this season, they can pose a threat in a very strong division.
Needs to step-up: Golden Tate
Key Rookie: Eric Ebron
Underrated Talent: Stephen Tulloch
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Green Bay Packers
Best Case Scenario: 15-1
Worst Case Scenario: 8-8
Green Bay have the most gifted quarterback in the league. Aaron Rodgers may not possess the mental experience that comes with a Tom Brady or a Peyton Manning but nobody throws the ball better or with as much precision as he does. Last year, they added Eddie Lacey to give the team a complimentary running game and it did wonders because despite Rodgers missing a good chunk of the season, the Packers still walked away with the division crown. I expect a similar result this year. In the draft, they added Ha-Ha Clinton-Dix in the first round to bolster the defense and nabbed a tight-end, Richard Rodgers, in the fourth. Both should see significant playing time early and often. It's one of the tougher divisions in the league, but Green Bay are still ahead of the pack.
Needs to step-up: Julius Peppers
Key Rookie: Richard Rodgers
Underrated Talent: Tramon Williams
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Minnesota Vikings
Best Case Scenario: 9-7
Worst Case Scenario: 4-12
As the clear backmarker in a loaded division, the Minnesota Vikings will be looking to at least unhinge one team for 3rd place if not higher. It's hard to project them winning the North with a new coach and the combination of Matt Cassel and Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback but competent play throughout, and another wild season from Adrian Peterson, could be enough to net a wild-card spot. The defense will benefit from fledgling head coach Mike Zimmer's tutilage and there have been rave reports of Norv Turner's offense suiting Peterson perfectly. They'll need a lot of luck, but they've done it before with less potential.
Needs to step-up: Matt Cassel
Key Rookie: Anthony Barr
Underrated Talent: Cordarelle Patterson
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NFC WEST
Arizona Cardinals
Best Case Scenario: 9-7
Worst Case Scenario: 4-12
This team played great last year but just missed out on a playoff berth. A repeat performance is unlikely as they appear to have lost too many pieces to stay afloat in what many consider the strongest division in football. On offense, they got stronger with the return of Jonathan Cooper at guard and the sudden arrival of John Brown as an upper-echelon 3rd receiver but the losses on defense are too strong to ignore. Karlos Dansby signed with the Browns in free agency, Darnell Dockett tore his ACL in training camp and troubled linebacker Daryl Washington is suspended for at least this season. On top of this, last year's standout, Tyrann Mathieu, is coming off surgery himself and their top pass-rusher John Abraham is entering his 15th season. It's a perfect storm and seems like too much for the Cardinals to overcome.
Needs to step-up: Matt Shaughnessy / Kevin Minter
Key Rookie: John Brown
Underrated Talent: Calais Campbell
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San Francisco 49ers
Best Case Scenario: 9-7
Worst Case Scenario: 6-10
Of all the teams written about so far, this seems to be the most clear cut. After making three straight NFC Championship games under John Harbaugh, the 49ers are due to regress and there's a long list of reasons to support the argument that they will. Colin Kaepernick hasn't shown enough of an improvement from a pure-throwing perspective as you'd like to see at this stage. Their wide-receiver group is underwhelming despite the spark of Michael Crabtree. A pair of suspensions for Aldon Smith, a graphic injury to recover from for Navarro Bowman and a looming punishment for Ray McDonald are all factors that will hurt the 49ers at some point this season. We have seen Kaepernick win as a pure pocket-passer and if this team gets down early in games, he will need to show lots more of that. Designed QB runs are fine against unloaded boxes but when the defense can put 8 guys up there and force you to pass, you better be able to get the ball out to someone before someone smacks you. We haven't seen this team with their backs against the wall come through when needed and this season could be humbling.
Needs to step-up: Colin Kaepernick
Key Rookie: Carlos Hyde
Underrated Talent: Bruce Miller
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Seattle Seahawks
Best Case Scenario: 14-2
Worst Case Scenario: 9-7
There were some ugly wins for the Seahawks in a year where they eventually proved themselves as the best team in the league. The key to repeating this season will be conistency. Russell Wilson will have to shoulder the majority of the pressure dancing behind an unproven offensive line and throwing to a makeshift group of targets that will likely vary based on Percy Harvin's availability. But they've done it before. Lately, we have seen Super Bowl champions hit a slump almost immediately but unlike other teams, this roster wasn't gutted in free agency. The core remains on both offense and defense and if anything, they should be even more loaded with depth. It's stupid to pick against a reigning champion with a huge home-field advantage so until proven otherwise, the other teams need to treat Seattle as the top contender to return to the big game.
The outlook is bleak in St. Louis, and not because they already lost starting quarterback Sam Bradford for the season, but because they still have to suffer through another year of Brian Schottenheimer calling plays for the offense. With a stout run game and a diverse selection of unproven weapons in Tavon Austin, Kenny Britt and Jared Cook, you could figure that this team should be able to put up points even with Shaun Hill under center. Unfortunately, the dink and dunk offense that Schottenheimer calls week-in week-out absolutely cripples this team. They have four first round picks on the defensive line that will harrass opposing quarterbacks all season but I don't see how they're going to put up points themselves. A year of low scoring affairs awaits.
Needs to step-up: Brian Schottenheimer
Key Rookie: Greg Robinson
Underrated Talent: Zac Stacy
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NFC SOUTH
Atlanta Falcons
Best Case Scenario: 10-6
Worst Case Scenario: 6-10
Despite their much-documented talk during HBO's 'Hard Knocks' about wanting to be known as a tough football team, the Atlanta Falcons still appear a little soft. They have a rookie left tackle starting on opening day and no discernible promise from a pass-rushing perspective. Their record last year reflected a poor performance on defense and an injury bug on offense. This year, the season probably won't be so grim but the talk about toughness still leaves a lot to be desired. Their strengths are as a finesse passing team. They play in a dome. Their inability to acknowledge what they do best and establish those firmly are a prime reason this team is constantly seen as lacking depth. Last year they were caught out and paid the price with a 4-12 record. They'll build on that this year, but their lack of awareness will define by how much.
Needs to step-up: Osi Umenyiora
Key Rookie: Jake Matthews
Underrated Talent: Desmond Trufant
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Carolina Panthers
Best Case Scenario: 7-9
Worst Case Scenario: 4-12
This team jumped up the tables last year thanks to an offense that could dominate on the ground, a defense that could rush the passer and a coach willing to take risks. This year's roster looks like one risk too many. Their offensive line has been decimated, they possess only one receiver with potential (Kelvin Benjamin) and Greg Hardy, a recent recipient of a franchise-defining contract, could be suspended for the first six games of the season. There is little indication that this is a team on the rise. The storm clouds are gathering in Charlotte. You best take shelter.
Needs to step-up: O-Line
Key Rookie: Kelvin Benjamin
Underrated Talent: Thomas Davis
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New Orleans Saints
Best Case Scenario: 13-3
Worst Case Scenario: 8-8
While individual talent doesn't produce a great team, this year's Saints look even better on a piece-by-piece basis than their Super Bowl team did. They return a majority of starters from last year but with some key additions in safety Jairus Byrd and rookie speedster Brandin Cooks. Drew Brees has thrown for more yards in a three year span than anyone in history thanks to a trio of 5,000 yard seasons with a real possibility of adding a fourth. The defense was massively improved under Rob Ryan last season and adding Byrd opposite Kenny Vaccaro on the back-end will provide big-play ability to a defense that should be able to play with a lead for the most part. The Saints are in line with the Seahawks and Packers as one of the top teams in the conference and the race for a first-round bye in the playoffs will be interesting come December.
Needs to step-up: Mark Ingram
Key Rookie: Brandin Cooks
Underrated Talent: Keenan Lewis
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Best Case Scenario: 8-8
Worst Case Scenario: 2-14
Lovie Smith will have a hard time turning Greg Schiano's horrible machine into something that can operate successfully. He's up to the task, he's been a winning coach before, but a major weakness on a lot of his Chicago teams was their offensive line and it already seems to be a problem in Tampa. They have emulated the Bears in positive ways too though. Signing Jay Cutler's back-up Josh McCown to compete with incumbent starter Mike Glennon was smart. So too was drafting receiver Mike Evans to pair with Vincent Jackson who form a comparable pair to that of Chicago's Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery. Overall, what's important to remember is that the Bears ended up firing the Bears because of multiple collapses down the stretch. With the Bucs, he'll have some leeway during rebuilding and there have been some very good moves so far but Smith will need to learn from his mistakes if this team are ever going to be a contender.
Needs to step-up: Mark Barron
Key Rookie: Mike Evans
Underrated Talent: Alterraun Verner
* * *
AWARDS
Coach of the Year
If things work out in Cleveland, I think Mike Pettine takes home this award. He was a fantastic co-ordinator who proved his worth on two different teams. All he would need to do is drag the Browns up to an 8-8 record and he'd be the most revered coach in the land.
But a more likely winner is Marc Trestman. The Bears were close to the division crown in his first year and look substantially better this time around. If they can pip the Packers to the post and wrap up a competitive NFC North, my money is on Marc.
Assistant Coach of the Year
This is the first year this award has existed so nobody knows how it'll shake out. Bill Lazor in Miami could win if the rumours about him replicating Chip Kelly's scheme pan out. The safe pick is Vikings' offensive co-ordinator Norv Turner.
Most Valuable Player
If it's not a quarterback, it'll be J.J. Watt. He's the most influential player on defense by a country mile. Unfortunately, it almost certainly will be a quarterback. Look for Drew Brees or Aaron Rodgers to get lock this up with strong finishes and big numbers. A dark horse to keep an eye on ... Andrew Luck.
Offensive Player of the Year
Generally, this is code for Second Most Valuable Player, or Most Valuable Non-Quarterback. Jimmy Graham would be a good bet, or someone from a team without a top-level QB such as Calvin Johnson or Adrian Peterson.
Defensive Player of the Year
J.J. Watt is a shoe in now that he has Jadeveon Clowney to take away some of the pressure. The strongest competition comes from the NFC West if Rams' defensive-end Robert Quinn can match his sack total from last season.
Offensive Rookie of the Year
New Orleans wide-receiver Brandin Cooks has a leg up on the others by playing with future Hall of Fame quarterback Drew Brees. It'll take a Manziel-sized leap of faith in Cleveland or a Blake Bortles sighting in Jacksonville to unhinge him.
Defensive Rookie of the Year
It'll be Jadeveon Clowney.
* * *
EARLY SUPER BOWL PICK
Take into account that not a single game has been played when I write this but ... I'm going with the Green Bay Packers beating the New England Patriots by 10 points. Seattle and New Orleans make strong pushes in the NFC but ultimately Aaron Rodgers is too precise in his execution for anyone to topple the Packers. The Patriots make it back to the Super Bowl with a close win over their second-most-hated Manning brother but fall to Green Bay, making it three rings and three losses for Tom Brady.
Topics Covered: (Football is back!) - (Watt A Season) - (Alex Boone is the tip of the iceberg for 49ers problems) - (QB Headlines, do you care?) - (Undrafted Spotlight) - (Penn State - UCF in Dublin) - (Don't buy Madden 15) - (Season Kickoff Preview)
AN ESSAY ABOUT ANXIETY, FANDOM AND COLLEGE FOOTBALL IN DUBLIN
BY ALEX SINCLAIR
* * *
The tickets I received for my birthday back in May were to go see an American football game taking place in Dublin. This is the rarest of events. Despite watching hundreds, if not thousands, on TV, I had never attended one in the flesh. This particular game was the college football season opener between the Penn State Nittany Lions and the University of Central Florida Knights. I didn't know much about either team. I just knew that this was an actual football game taking place on my home soil and I'd be damned if I was going to miss it.
But in the days leading up to the game, I was nervous, which actually isn't unlike sex either. All week, I had been dreading the claustrophobia of sitting inside an 80,000 seat stadium like Croke Park. As much as I was looking forward to my first live football experience, the venue itself scared me a little. I have never been inside a stadium before, let alone the 3rd largest stadium in Europe so you can understand that if you're someone who is anxious going to small-to-medium parties, then being around five-digits of screaming people made me nervous.
Sometimes, the best defense against my nerves is that I know I get nervous rather easily so occasionally I can downplay some genuinely scary things as “just another one of my little anxieties”. The ratio of genuinely terrifying things versus things I only THINK are scary is very lopsided and this is sort of a weird Fight-Fire-With-Fire strategy that sometimes works for me. It was my strategy for this game. It was my strategy to make sure nobody ended up disappointed. I worry a lot about letting people down, or seeming reclusive because of my fear of panic attacks in public situations, but this time was different. This time I was scared of letting myself down.
My girlfriend, Lauren, was the lucky recipient of my other ticket. [I had offered it to my Dad but he shares my anxiety regarding stadiums without my overwhelming passion for football so he quickly passed.] I'm a touch ashamed to say Lauren has probably been on the receiving end of a let-down or two at the hands my anxieties. I had explained to her how I didn't want to let myself down this time because I didn't know when the next time an American football game would be played on Irish soil. She understood immediately but for some reason I felt worse. The concerts we had to leave early, the nights out we missed, are those not as important as this? She doesn't think about things this way. Her brain is practical, organised. Mine regularly feels like a ball of 50 shoelaces connected by a lawless order of diverse knots and loops.
I stayed at her's the night before the game. It was a practical decision more than anything else because Lauren lives within walking distance of Croke Park whereas my house is at least an hour away, maybe more if there are (inevitable) public transport delays. We were lying in her bed on Saturday morning and she asked me several times if I was okay. I was a little shell-shocked. My nervous-stomach had kept me up a lot of the night but I knew I could run on the adrenaline of anxiety/excitement for the day. I wasn't worried about lost sleep.
Lauren doesn't watch football, though she does actively root for the Cleveland Browns and openly wanted Penn State to beat UCF because their jerseys were nicer. I couldn't blame her. The iconic navy and white candor of Penn State is head and shoulders above UCF's trio of gold, white and black. Team colours are important to me. They were how I picked my NFL team. I wanted to play as the blue team in Madden, and thus, I am a New York Giants fan.
I don't have a vested interest in any college football team. I've watched that level of the sport for about three years but the sheer volume of teams make it difficult to follow properly or pick a team to root for. My cousins went to LSU, so they seemed like a logical choice for a while but it just never caught on for me. For a while, I liked the Oregon Ducks because they displayed a disparate selection of uniform combinations but after watching season-long stretches of blowing out small schools before half-time, it grew tiresome and I abandoned the evil empire of Neon Nike. And thus, I was team-less. At least on the college level.
But today, I felt a debt of gratitude to UCF. They were giving up a home-game to play in Ireland. They had strong Irish connections in Cork-born kicker, Sean Galvin, and third-generation Irish-American Coach George O'Leary [1]. I couldn't bring myself to outright root for the better jersey when clearly, if there's a team an Irishman should root for, it's the Knights.
UCF even debuted a special helmet design to commemorate their trip across the pond. They kept their traditional black and gold logo on a white helmet but added decals representing a shamrock, a four-leaf clover and a pot of gold. When Americans visit Ireland, they want it to look like a red-headed alcoholic had too many Guinnei (plural of Guinness) and threw up Lucky Charms all over land gifted to him as a dowry from his wife's father. It's super tacky, and it makes sense that the Temple Bar district [2] was converted into the official tailgate and pep-rally area for the two teams. It's brimming with “Irish” pubs and overpriced green merchandise. As an Irishman, nothing annoys me faster than faux-Irishness. The special helmet decals were the first indication I wouldn't finish today rooting for UCF.
The second was when we arrived at the stadium. The Cusack stand was designated for Penn State supporters and UCF had the Hogan Stand. The Davin Stand which connects the the two, and gives an end-to-end view of the field, would be for neutral fans. That's a very tidy way of putting it but in reality in played out very differently.
Despite giving up a home game to play in Ireland, UCF had far fewer fans travel over to watch them play than their Pennsylvania counterparts. In fact, it was about a tenth. It was estimated that approximately 2,000 UCF made the trip while Penn State boasted a travelling army of 20,000 strong. What should have been a neutral site for this game, immediately shifted to a home-atmosphere for the “visiting” team. Penn State fans purchased tickets all over the field stadium.
I quickly found out that this was a good thing because Lauren and I were seated in the UCF's Hogan Stand. I have never been around a large contingent of one team's supporters before but as far as I could tell, the Knights had exceptionally obnoxious fans. The entire row ahead of us appeared to be diehards donned in Blake Bortles jerseys [Bortles footnote], temporary face tattoos, and baseball caps that said “Dublin” in a celtic font. Faux-Irishness. They even had their own team-branded drinking cups. Okay, that might be a little bit of real Irishness but it was still annoying. For large periods of time, they would disappear to the bar, chant UCF when no team was on the field, and of course, the obligatory shouting of abuse towards one's opponent. I'm sure there are fans of every team like this but today, we were unfortunately located in the belly of the cackling, heckling, slightly-too-drunk-for-3pm UCF beast.
Which meant, I found myself rooting for Penn State a little bit more with each passing minute. They were clearly the better team, though the early scoreline suggested that it was a somewhat even fight. UCF couldn't do much offensively but their defense was strong. They intercepted an errant throw by Penn State quarterback Christian Hackenberg early in the game and regularly gained penetration on the line of scrimmage, disrupting both the run game and Hackenberg's passing rhythm.
Of course, at one such juncture, this prompted an overweight UCF fan behind me to shout “Yeah Penn State, you'd know a thing or two about penetration!”. I was afraid that this would happen. Penn State were the victims of the Jerry Sandusky child abuse scandal that rocked the program a few years ago. The current iteration of the team is two coaching staffs removed from the guilty party and the college is still undertaking punishment for their negligence in the issue. It's an easy target for fans of the opposing team, and immature people in general, but I was stupidly under the impression that grown adults would know better than to exploit a sensitive situation for the sake of sports fandom. I was wrong. After the insult, the Bortles Brigade turned to show appreciation for the crass commentary with one fan stating “Who is this guy? I think I like him.”
Later on, ineffective UCF starting quarterback Pete DiNovo threw yet another uncatchable ball. This was met with cries of referee bias (“Bloody Big Ten zebras!) and expletives (unprintable). Not once did they stop to consider that the only person holding their offense back was the guy throwing the ball. No disrespect to Pete DiNovo, but “Pete DiNovo” is exactly the name you'd give a fictional character who was benched for ineffectiveness.
The 20 minute half-time period was a weird sort of football-less microcosm of the whole experience. For entertainment, the promoters rolled out Super 11's hurling teams to play what one UCF fan described as “soccer with baseball bats”. At various points during the hurling exhibition, Ireland's own Cougars, a youth cheerleading club, took turns doing backflips behind the endzone. I'm not sure if I was in charge of a group of scantily clad children, I'd opt for a nickname like “Cougar”. The event was a melting pot of America imitating Ireland and Ireland imitating America. If there wasn't a football game going on, I'd swear it was St. Patrick's Day.
At the break, Lauren parlayed the hurling, went in search of food, and she spotted a favourite comedian of mine, David O'Doherty. “I was going to get him to sign the game programme for you but he looked a bit annoyed.” She returned with a giant burger for herself and some chips that we shared. My stomach still felt a little nervous so I took it easy.
With the second-half underway, I began to remember why I was so excited to see the tickets on my birthday. I ignored the ignorant fans. I stopped paying attention to the crazy sideshows. I started purely focusing on the game at hand. 10-3 to Penn State. What was somewhat boring and low scoring in the first two quarters, was suddenly about to erupt.
Penn State took the opening kickoff of the half past the 50 yard line but there was a penalty flag. The penalty didn't matter. The energy was instantaneous. What I learned at Croke Park is that crowds love turnovers and they love big kick returns. They don't care if you score on either of them because these are plays that inspire hope. They're electrifying. They wake up both teams and every fan in the stadium. Even when they're called back.
After a handful more attempts in the second half, UCF's “Poor Pete” DiNovo was promptly replaced by Justin Holman who immediately provided a spark for the Floridians. Everything from his on-field demeanor to the pace on the ball was noticeably different. He gained as many yards in a single possession as DiNovo did for the entire first half. Trailing 13-3 in the middle of the 3rd quarter, Holman threw the ball 60 yards to wide receiver Breshad Perriman. A crucial play for the Knights. After a couple of unsuccessful tries at punching it in with the run game, Holman takes it in his own hands and sneaks across the goal-line for a score. 13-10. We have ourselves a game.
At this point, I'm still trying to remain neutral. Most of all, I'm rooting for a close fight and it's difficult not to be impressed with the revitalised UCF squad, but jumping up and cheering at a big play leads Lauren to think I'm rooting for the Knights. On the ensuing possession for Penn State, Hackenberg pump fakes which draws the safety away from the intended receiver. He then launches the ball to #7 Geno Lewis who suddenly appears into view 15 yards clear of the defense with three UCF players in pursuit. They chase in vain. It's a 79 yard touchdown. It's the first clear sign of how talented Hackenberg is. Selling the pump-fake is a veteran move that he backed up with a precision throw to hit Lewis in stride. I was in awe. I'm guessing Lauren was impressed too because immediately after the play, she looked at me for a moment before offering her analysis; “THAT'S HOW YOU DO SPORTS!”
Christian Hackenberg is young. He committed to playing for Penn State prior to hearing the sanctions imposed on the team for the Jerry Sandusky incident yet stayed true to his word despite the implications the NCAA punishments would have on his subsequent possibility of success. Hackenberg is only 19 years old yet doesn't appear diminishing in stature the way a lot of college quarterbacks do. He's a stout fellow. It didn't look like he threw for as many yards as he did in this game. It just looked like Penn State had no running game, but those big chunk plays combined with short quick throws all add up to big numbers. The turnovers and the lack of direct touchdown passes make him look less polished than other household names dominating the college scene but the maturity to do small things like look off the safety with a pump fake shows how great he could be with a couple of years experience in him.
The #14 on his jersey looks great on him too. It's a good number for a quarterback. If I played that position, that's definitely the number I'd pick. Jersey numbers, like jersey colours, have an important sartorial role in how much I like a player. Some numbers look really ugly. I never liked Peyton Manning's #18. The #8 has a wide body and the #1 is quite narrow. The #14 on Hackenberg is different. The angles in the #4 make it look like a something torn from a playbook. The wide receiver speeds down the field for 10 yards, cuts back left towards the quarterback, sees that the quarterback has escaped the pocket to the right side of the field and follows him toward the sideline where he's hit with the ball inches from the sideline. Looks like a giant #4. Looks great on a quarterback jersey.
While we're on the subject of jersey numbers, wide receivers in college often wear single digits but once they enter the NFL are forced to change to something between 10-19 and 80-89. I hate this. Aesthetically big looking numbers like #88 slow the visual effect of the game. Single digits look lighter, faster, and as such, emphasise the speed element of the position. I would love if the NFL allowed all offensive skill positions (receivers, running backs, tight-ends) and defensive backs (corner and safety) to wear single digits.
Meanwhile in the game, it's progressed into the 4th quarter and UCF nearly throw the game away. The Knights make it down inside the 1 yard line but are pushed away with back-to-back penalties and misfires. On 3rd down, Holman bails them out with a laser to #19 Josh Reese. In any other game, this might be a signature play for the young quarterback but on this day, there were crazier events yet to unfold.
In the middle of the 4th, there's a four play series containing three turnovers, two by Penn State; a crazy interception where UCF #38 Jordan Ozerities comes out of nowhere, followed by a botched handoff between Holman and the running back, only for Penn State's Chris Goodwin [3] to give it right back again.
All I wanted was a close game. These tickets were so much more valuable than I previously thought. Assigning seat prices is all well and good before kickoff, but when it gets to the end of a close game, good seats at a close game are invaluable. Late in the 4th quarter, #7 Lewis (the same guy who caught the 79 yard touchdown) makes a second hero catch when a DB runs into him, pops the ball up in the air but the unfazed Lewis somehow manages to snatch it as he falls to the ground. Huge play. UCF fans all around me hold their head in their hands. A play so good that Lauren's interest raised from mild to medium (only medium?).
With 4:36 remaining, the offense does something that annoys the hell out of me. It's not the first time they've done it during the game, but this time it especially infuriates me. Occasionally, Penn State opt for their Wildcat package which calls for the quarterback to split out wide and the ball to be snapped directly to the running back. I don't like this. In some cases when a team doesn't have a strong quarterback, it makes sense to throw a curve-ball at the defense. This isn't one of those times. This package of plays disrupts the flow of the game for their most important player. Hackenberg is neutralised.
Wildcat football is relatively simple to defend and is often mistaken with the run-option plays used by NFL quarterbacks. The Wildcat, or at least the Miami Dolphins iteration of it, is a direct snap to the running back who poses almost no threat of throwing the ball. The quarterback splits out wide and all you have to do to defend him is put any player at all standing close by. The running back, who would generally not be confident throwing the ball, will only attempt to pass if you leave a player uncovered. To defend this scheme, you press your guys on the edges, load up the box and dare a quarterback-less offense to throw. The difference between this and what read-option teams run is that the player with the ball in his hands in today's NFL (and most colleges) is most certainly a legitimate threat to throw. The version Penn State are using is virtually useless and does not net them a big play in the entirety of the game. At at time when they're leading by 3 points and could put the game out of reach with a touchdown, they remove their best offensive player from the equation. They run this play twice in a row and settle for a field goal shortly after.
With Penn State up by 6, UCF have to get a touchdown, and the extra point, to win. The mathematical possibilities of this game going to overtime diminish greatly and I think my girlfriend is a little relieved when I tell her this. UCF have a single timeout to make it 80 yards. There's a sense of urgency by the Knights. Too much in fact. With one timeout remaining the Knights are forced into operating quickly. Most of the time this is a good thing, but football teams have two speeds, normal and fast. UCF needed something in between, which is extremely difficult to measure and rarely seen even at the top level in the NFL.
They rush through three straight incompletions for Holman. This puts the whole game on the line with 4th and 10 staring at them. Keep up, the game is moving fast now. UCF need a miracle, and they get one. Instead of opting to throw it for the required yardage, Holman takes a shot downfield. He overthrows his receiver but #19 Reese lays out and snags it. Catch. First down. 6 yards to go.
Here is where the timing comes into it. On first and goal, Holman keeps it and scampers up the middle. The UCF crowd goes wild. Men hug their wives. Men hug strangers. Strangers hug other mens' wives with somewhat disapproving glances. If you're a UCF Knights fan, all is right in the world.
Then they all look at the clock. 1:13 remains and Penn State still have all three timeouts. Their quarterback has already thrown for more yards in a single game than any other Penn State quarterback in history and the team only need a field-goal to win it. The atmosphere in the Hogan Stand swiftly goes from ecstatic to anxious.
After a few short plays that gain a bundle of yards, UCF have backed Penn State into a corner. It's 4th and 3. If you don't convert here, it's over. And what unfolds is the exact reason why you never neutralise your best player. Hackenberg has no open receivers. The pocket is collapsing around him. With a few yards of clear space out in front of him, he takes off. He breaks a tackle right at the 1st down line and then it takes two more UCF guys to bring him down. They bring him down hard. He should have slid after the necessary yardage but it's hard to fault him. This is the end of the game. If you need a field-goal to win it, every yard and every inch can make a difference to that kicker. It's the difference between hitting the post and hitting a clean field goal. You have to admire the kid's spirit. He wants to win and despite a couple of relatively costly turnovers, this is his game. Hackenberg gains the 3 most important yards of the day and adds on 5 extra for good measure. It's the second point in the game where the defense fails to capitalise on securing the win.
With 32 seconds left, Hackenberg creates another genius play out of nothing. Yet again, nobody noticeably open downfield. A white jersey flashes across the middle but there isn't a huge amount of time or space or operate with. He underhands the ball to the running back, #1 Belton, who gains some positive yards and steps out of bounds to stop the clock.
20 seconds left. Hackenberg forces the ball into a tight window. The same throw that resulted in an interception early in the game but this time it's complete. Penn State are edging towards field goal range and after one more pass to #7 Lewis, they're there. UCF fans everywhere groan.
3 seconds. This is it. The kick is ... good. The Penn State Nittany Lions win it in a nailbiter. 26-24. The crowd on the other side of the field erupt and a sea of white jerseys spill onto the field. It's over. As a Giants fan who has been on the losing side of a lot of close games, I can empathise with those seated around us but given that Penn State have another year of sanctioned-exclusion from playoffs and bowl games, this seems to mean a little more to them than perhaps it would to UCF, fresh off a win at the Fiesta Bowl. Penn State take home the Dan Rooney Trophy, named after former Irish Ambassador and Pittsburgh Steelers owner, as well as the Coaches' Trophy, which I suspect always intended to go to the winning coach.
On this day, with what I've just witnessed, I've been converted. I was previously team-less, but from today onwards, I am a Penn State fan. More importantly, I'm a Christian Hackenberg fan. The kid was amazing. It feels odd calling football players “kids” but Hackenberg really is one. He is only 19 years old yet displays some of the unteachable traits of NFL calibre play. It may not have been the cleanest win, or the most definitive, but damn it, it was entertaining.
A posthumous quiet has crept over the local Knights fans. Many sat with their heads in their hands, wondering how they could come so close to winning but face an 8 hour flight back to Florida pondering what caused the defeat. If only the defense played better, if only they hadn't scored so fast at the end, if only Pete DiNovo didn't play for the entire first half and cripple any chance of offensive production. Oh what could have been!
But I doubt those loyal to UCF will remain sombre for long. Usually when you lose a quarterback who gets picked in the top 5 of the NFL draft, it takes a while to find a stable replacement. For George O'Leary and his staff, it may have only taken them half of one game to find the next Blake Bortles. Justin Holman looks great. Okay, so his style of play is different to what Bortles brought to the table, but his arm strength is just as good. If he can temper the accuracy issues he had during training camp, we could be looking at a long-term starter here.
Overall, both teams played the game I wanted to see. By the end, I couldn't remember why I thought I'd feel anxious about going to the game at all. In reality, stadiums have a much different impact than how they register on broadcast coverage. The open air is rarely acknowledged in the angles used for television. The field itself is also much smaller. 100 yards from endzone to endzone seems like an eternity when viewed from a standard telecast angle. It's only when you see it in person that the real geometry of the field becomes noticeable, less daunting. I had packed two Xanax tablets in the semi-secret pocket of my wallet in case I had a panic attack. None were taken, the game was enjoyed and both Lauren and I left Croke Park on Saturday with a college football team to support.
We are. [4]
* * *
FOOTNOTES
[1]
George O'Leary definitely looks Irish. He has white hair and reminds me of an unthreatening uncle or a polite neighbour.
[2]
Read as: "Tourist district". Temple Bar is where every visitor goes when they get to Dublin first. It's what most non-Irish people think all of Dublin looks like.
[3]
Goodwin dons the #12, previously worn by former Penn State and New York Giants quarterback Kerry Collins. Prior to about a month ago, Collins was the only Penn State player in history I'd be able to name. When I check the program to see who is currently wearing #12, I see that they utilise the number twice by assigning it to an offensive and defensive player. That's allowed as long as the two players don't play on the field at the same time. Given the increasing range of numbers that are retired by teams due to Hall of Fame players, I'm surprised we don't see more of this.
But the preseason quickly dispelled any kind of positive outlook. After initial comments about placing a priority in completing as much as 70% of his passes, Eli had been horrid in the few outings so far. Over the last two preseason games, he had a completion percentage of 11%. Eleven. Everyone else on the team seemed decent, not amazing, not blowing the doors off any preconceptions, but decent. Quiet optimism. Apart from Eli.
Gone are the days of discussing "Is Eli elite?". Now fans are stuck listening to "Is Eli even efficient?" Inefficient Eli. Unfortunately, the alliteration is too good to pass up. Most of the time being on one-name terms with the media is a good thing for an athlete. Lebron. Gretzky. Tiger. But in football, "Manning" is reserved for the elder statesman, Peyton. Eli is stuck with the rather clumsy (and fitting) first name designation. Not the hallmark of a two time Super Bowl MVP, but I guess it's better than the triple barrel identification reserved for serial killers.
Halfway through last night's preseason game against the Jets, I was shaking my head, muttering things about Eli for the hundredth time this year. Strip sacked for the second time in as many quarters. Interesting idea to throw the ball out of bounds again. Makes sense to have Eli do a lot of bootleg plays, because he has about as much athleticism as Tom Coughlin at this stage. As a fan, I had gone past being worried and was on the verge of annoyance. These are two of the stages of grief that I have come to identify that any fan of a struggling sports entity will go through.
The first of these stages is despair. Surprisingly, this doesn't last long. After any tough loss, you'll be down until about the Wednesday. You should start feeling rejuvenated before Thursday Night Football. That's the first indication of a new week. You can't look ahead if you don't lift your chin up.
After this, is the worry stage. If the team loses for a second week in a row you begin to wonder if this despair might hang around a little longer. What if I'm stuck with this feeling? What if that wasn't an anomaly?
If there is a third difficult performance, then you'll probably hit annoyance. This is the third iteration of fan grief. Like a buzzing fly in your room on a Saturday morning, you're annoyed. This is a morning you deserve to sleep through yet you're awoken by furious murmurs of the insect variety. Downright angry that something has ruined what is supposed to be an enjoyable activity. Watching a football game, sleeping, spying on your neighbours. Whatever way you want to spend your weekend.
The fourth and final stage is acceptance. You begin to come to terms that this is just how your team is. You understand you'll have to live with this situation for at least this season. This happened to most Giants fans last season. Opening the season with six straight losses became laughable after about Week 4. The Kansas City Chiefs humiliated the Giants with a 31-7 loss. They did this despite not having a single skill player go over 100 yards receiving or rushing. Watching Eli buried in a pile of dirt became the norm. I expected the franchise quarterback to end up on the ground after every play. It got kinda funny. I accepted that this team is what it is. Not even a 7-2 record down the stretch could redeem the poor opening. In fact, I was a little peeved because if you're not even reaching 8-8 levels of mediocrity, then you're hoping for a record bad enough to net a top draft prospect.
While the 7-9 Giants ended up 12th overall (about 10 spots higher than I thought they deserved) they did get a guy I thought could step in and immediately help next year. The kind of impact player bad teams need. They landed lightning-quick LSU playmaker Odell Beckham Jr. Suddenly there was hope again.
Hope is so dangerous when managed incorrectly. Given the nature of parity in the NFL, you have about a 50-50 shot that your hope is a signal of positive results to come. The downside is that it could be an early indicator that you might end up suffering fan-grief pretty soon. Hope can be brought on by a new offensive co-ordinator. Or a speedy 1st round draft pick. Or a restacked, refreshed, rebuilt roster brimming with promise and potential.
But all preseason long, Eli has worked to squash any expectations that this is anything other than a mediocre team (at best). And I realised, I've sorta held on to that. I've been thankful. What's that phrase, "You don't know what you got 'til it's gone"? Until last night's game against the Jets, I didn't comprehend I've been relying on Eli Manning to temper any crazy thoughts of lifting another Lombardi trophy come February.
Coming towards the end of the first half, the Giants gained possession. Despite a lone dumbhead interception that was wiped away because the defensive player stepped out of bounds, Eli was brilliant. On his final drive of the game, Eli completed 7 of his 10 passes for 89 yards and a touchdown. He single handedly took control of that offense, lead his team down the field and scored. Perhaps I'm looking into it too much, but 7 as a percentage of 10 is easily worked out to a percentage. 70%.
A part of me hated him for it. God damn it, Eli, I think you've cracked this offense. Why did I even bother managing expectations if you're going to look brilliant? You're not the ant-acid for hope I need right now. But you're a spark. And like an addict, I'm going to ride this high for as long as I can before I come crashing down to earth. Hope, terrifying hope.
Topics Covered: (The Preseason Musk) - (Ferguson's Football Impact) - (Browns - Washington recap) - (NFL Fanspotting in Dublin) - (Phestive Philly Phonecalls) - (Potential Trading Partners for Mark Sanchez) - (Hard Knocks with the Tennessee Titans) - (Next Up) - (It's hard being a Giants fan, then you remember Dallas) - (Pass Interference as a metaphor for our lack of talent) - (Media Recommendation: 'THE TIM TEBOW CFL CHRONICLES' by Jon Bois) - (Matt Bowen is a genius)
We were lucky enough to be graced with the wisdom of former NFL safety and current Bleacher Report NFL writer, Matt Bowen. He's our first interview here at The 819 and we're massively grateful that he granted us some time during what is certainly a busy time for NFL writers everywhere.
The NFL is addictive, but thoroughly intimidating if you're new to the sport. There are masses of complex rules that may only arise once per season. The volume of technical jargon is so great, the same thing can be called by three or four different names depending on what style of coach you're talking to. It's honestly a lot to process for a newbie.
So when you have someone who is a surgeon at breaking down the advanced aspects of the game into a digestible format, that's someone you want to pay attention to. Matt Bowen is just that person.
Bowen is a 7 year NFL veteran, having spent time at the safety position for the Rams, Packers, Washington and the Bills. Thankfully, he turned to journalism full-time after his playing career ended and he brings his knowledge of both together on a regular basis, exemplifying what it is to be a good NFL analyst.
By carving up game tape, he points out the nuances of the sport to those wishing to learn further. Each installment of his 'NFL 101' series over on Bleacher Report is essential reading immediately when it hits the web. Admittedly, Bowen's writing isn't for everyone, but for the people it does attract, he's a writer as valuable as any journalist working today.
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Was it always your plan to venture into journalism once your playing career finished?
I studied journalism as an undergrad at the University of Iowa and wrote a column, plus covered the track beat, for the Daily Iowan on campus. And once I was drafted into the NFL, I went to the editor of the paper in every city I played in to ask for some space. Just a column a week to keep up on my writing with the St.Louis Post-Dispatch, Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, Washington Times and Niagara Gazette. From there, I went on to get my masters at DePaul University in Writing and Publishing after I retired from the league. That really improved my ability to connect with readers, improve my style, write in a conversational tone and experience the literary side of the writing field. To sum it up here, I always wanted a career in the writing field. As of now, sports writing fits my lifestyle with a young family. But I do want to get back to the literary side in the future.
How much did coaches' tape interest you as a player compared to now?
I've always been interested in the All-22 tape going back to college at Iowa. However, it wasn't until my third year in the NFL that I really started to understand what the film was telling me. Every personnel grouping, alignment, split, etc. reads like an open book once you know the game. I needed the time in the NFL to watch tape with coaches and vets before I truly understood the game on tape.
What would you say is the best introduction to the casual football fan who wants to expand their knowledge a bit further?
Read Pat Kirwan's book: 'Take Your Eye off the Ball' This is a good read that lays out the basics of the game while also looking at the complex side of the NFL from a scheme and personnel perspective.
[Editor's Note: We talked about 'Take Your Eye Off The Ball' in Episode 3 of The 819 Podcast]
Do you watch football differently when it's live compared to when you're breaking down film?
I do watch the game differently on the TV copy compared to the All-22 tape. On defense, I study the CBs -as their alignment/drop tells me the coverage. On offense, I focus on personnel, formation and down & distance to get a feel for the flow of the game, play-calling and tendencies. Have to stop looking at the ball and get a wider view of the actual play to break down the TV copy.
What's the first thing you analyse when studying film?
I always look at the "WHY?" That tells me everything. If its a deep post, why did the defense get beat? Was it the coverage, leverage, eye discipline, angle to the ball? Where was the help? And, to be honest, it always comes back to technique. With so much speed and talent on the field in the NFL, technique is always the answer to why a player wins/loses a one-on-one matchup.
Do you have a favourite writer that isn't sports related?
Lee Child, John Sandford, Cormac McCarthy and J.D. Salinger. I love to read fiction and studied both long form and short story in my masters program.
What do you think of the NFL's push towards making the game more international? For the record, I think an NFL team situated in a country that isn't part of North America would be a huge mistake, but love that they play meaningful games abroad. And I really wish they would follow in college football's footsteps by playing a game here in Dublin.
I like seeing the NFL play some annual regular season games out of the country, but we have to look at this from the perspective of travel, recovery, etc. with the players when talking about a non-US franchise. Can't have teams traveling to Europe on a regular basis. I have a hard time seeing the Players' Union buying into that.
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Matt Bowen currently resides in Chicago, IL and can be found online at the following:
Bleacher Report | Twitter | Facebook | The 819 Resources
A BRIEF ANALYSIS OF A PROFESSIONAL ATHLETE GIVING THE FINGER
BY ALEX SINCLAIR
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And sure enough, it does appear that I missed something noteworthy last night. Putting RGIII and the lovable Washington F.C. aside, the ever controversial Johnny Manziel added a new tidbit to his long running media saga. After a frustrating incompletion against the Washington defense, Manziel turned to walk back to the huddle and in the process, raised his hand, adjusted his middle finger accordingly, and proceeded to flip off the whole Washington side of the field.
Immediately, the internet erupted. OH JOHNNY! LOOK WHAT YOU'VE DONE AGAIN. TYPICAL MANZIEL. Well, yeah, typical of someone that's being put under catastrophic levels of pressure from the media and fans to be the face of a city deprived of any kinds of sports championship for half a decade. NFL players swear on the field. A lot. Half the time, it's not exactly directed at anyone, but for someone who religiously watches NFL Films' MIC'D UP series, this isn't even remotely surprising.
The reason this is treated differently is because this visual indication of a swear word registered itself on live television. NFL Films make careful cut-ups of their audio tracks to include bleeps wherever necessary but censoring live TV is near impossible. I don't really blame anyone here. Sure, there will be the inevitable concerned parent or two vying to enact glorious revenge on whatever shameful editor exposed their child to this ... this gesture. But this game was broadcast after watershed, so if ESPN are smart (hmm), they should just ignore the noise.
Personally, I'd find it more entertaining if we got a sort of NFL After Dark style show for primetime games. Something a little more edgy than the usual affair. The sport could do with a little edge. The tough-guy-on-the-field image is well entrenched, but the presentation of the sport is still very much conservative. With it's rapidly moving graphics and bold statements, it attempts grittiness, but it's feigned in the same way Christian rock bands attempt said grittiness. It never appears authentic. There has been a concerted attempt to forego the all-white sportscaster narrative in recent years, and good for them, but in terms of attitude, everything still appears a little soft in comparison to their on-field counterparts.
Don't get me wrong, the way to fix this isn't to take it to a level where we have Ken Block and Shaun White in the booth for their XXXtreme Hot Takes (Sponsored by Monster Energy), but a good start would be not making a big commotion about what it means for a player's future if he gave the finger to the opposition on live TV. In fact, from an ideal entertainment point of view, I wish more players behaved like this.
As a fan, you want your team to absolutely hate the opposition. You want them to be furious just looking at their schedule of upcoming games. You want the pageantry, but without the feminine connotations of the word 'pageantry'. We need guys like Johnny Manziel, like loudmouth Richard Sherman. They're the anti-heroes this sport deserves. They're The Punisher and Batman to Tom Brady's Superman. Everyone has their own appeal. The sport is more dynamic and interesting as a result.
The media training that NFL players and coaches go through is so rigorous, it beats out every ounce of what makes them interesting. Nobody should say anything wrong. Nobody should say anything worth listening to. The reason HBO's Hard Knocks series is so popular is because it humanises these people and removes that careful media-approved filter. For better or worse, it tells their story.
The problem is, sports-media generally don't understand how to portray an anti-hero so they corrupt the story into portraying guys like Manziel as a villain. It's an important distinction that makes all the difference in those off-season months filled with stories of hooliganism (drinking at a bar), questionable accomplices (hanging out with other celebrities) and drug-fueled binge weekends (owning a $20 bill). Manziel isn't squeaky clean. Good. But don't mistake him for a bad guy just yet.
But there's a guy behind the offensive line, a guy paving the way for the star running back by picking up that linebacker at the second level, the guy with relatively little use for passing but a massive weapon in the run game when used properly. That guy's the fullback. And unlike the offensive linemen who forego fame in favour of fortune, the fullback has neither option on their plate. That guy is nearly always an after-thought. There hasn't been a fullback drafted in the first round for 20 years and that was when the 49ers took Florida State product, William Floyd, 28th overall. There hasn't even been a guy at that position drafted in the first three rounds in a decade (BJ Askew, NY Jets, 2004, 85th pick). And you can't really blame teams for this approach either. If everyone agrees that this is a position unworthy of drafting early (or even at all), then you can get quality players at a fraction of the cost. Half of the top ten fullbacks rated by ProFootballFocus last year were undrafted. Half.
Much like the shift of priorities for offensive linemen, the shift away from fullbacks altogether is predicated on the emphasis that a pass-first offensive philosophy is essential. Fullbacks are a product of a run-first scheme and those are rapidly falling out of favour. Positions have evolved to deal with the passing game and no other has influenced the fullback as much as the tight-end. Tight-ends seem to have pushed and pulled at the extreme ends of their responsibility, blocking and catching. The traditional in-line blocking tight-end is taking on the duties of the fullback and the athletic pass-catching tight-end is taking targets away from wide-receivers. Receivers and fullbacks telegraph to the defense what the play is likely to be. Tight-ends mask the intention. It's natural that the receiver playing time is safe in a pass-first league but amid the flying footballs, fullback playing time is disintegrating into a cloud of dust. You can never fully count out a strategy or position forever (think the Wildcat resurgence of the Wing-T), but for now at least, it looks as if the fullback is on its way out.
The Carolina Panthers are a dying breed of the run-heavy variety. They lead the league in fullback inclusion by utilising their guy, Mike Tolbert, on 59% of regular season plays last year while the average offense only had a fullback on the field for 26% of the time. These inclusion stats obviously can't account for teams that get behind early and have to abandon the running game, however they do speak towards the devaluing of the position. If you look as recently as 2009, you find fullbacks were on field for 37% of the plays. An 11% difference in 5 years is huge but not surprising.
The NFL has probably changed as much in the last 5 years as it has the previous 15 years before it. 5,000 passing yards is the new 4,000 passing yards . Basketball players are the new tight-ends. Pass-catching tight-ends are the new wide-receivers. Blocking tight-ends are the new fullbacks. If you're on the field and telling the other team what's going to happen, then you're a liability. In an age where defenses mask their coverage pre-snap and suddenly change to something fresh when the play is in motion, it's not efficient for the offense to get away with having one guy on the field indicating what's coming up. Even if it's a fake and the offense is passing, then the defense really doesn't have to care about the fullback in that aspect of the game.
During the regular season last year, the total number of passes caught by a fullback was 319 (according to PFF). That means the fullback only caught a pass 3% of the time they were on the field. They're likely to only run shallow routes and aren't fast enough as players for defenses to worry that they'll make a big play in space. They're not a threat through the air so they simply don't fit in the modern NFL offense.
However, all is not lost ... yet. Outside of the people who grade tape and develop analytics, there are only a few people who would actually watch a fullback on any given play but I'd like to highlight some aborrations that could make the position a fascination for the casual fan. This season may be one of the last times you get to observe the skillsets of the fullback in all its glory.
Bruce Miller, despite his positional disability of being a fullback, was 3rd in receptions for the 49ers last year. It's crazy to think that a team, such as the 49ers who were competitive in every game last year, could have a fullback as their 3rd leading receiver and still be as productive as they were. People will point to the idea that the team's #1 wide-receiver Michael Crabtree was injured for most of the year, but if you look at the stat-lines for Miller, his receptions actually rose once Crabtree returned in December, recording 9 of his 25 total catches in the final month alone.
Yet here's the problem. The reason he isn't talked about as a pivotal member of that team is because he was never a threat to the defense. He averaged 9.7 yards per reception, which would be extremely good if he was a wide-receiver but seeing as he was only targeted on 5% of the plays he was on the field, the defense is willing to give up those 9.7 yards because they know big fullbacks are never going to allude several tackles and escape downfield for a long score. Bruce Miller's numbers are good, but he's still just a fullback. This is a great example of how statistics aren't an even measure across the board and how taking any of them in a vacuum skews the overall impression of a player.
Another fullback, Marcel Reece of the Oakland Raiders, was a bright spot on an underwhelming team. Although people will be hard pressed to consider him a traditional fullback (the Raiders use him more as a heavy running back and he played tight-end in college), his initial numbers do impress, especially for his position. He had 549 total yards if you combine his rushing and receiving yardage but that fails to tell the whole picture. He lead all fullbacks in both receptions and yardage despite only catching 60% of passes thrown his way. This percentage is massively below average for a fullback though you can't fully blame him for that number. PFF's advanced metrics regarding drop rate and catchable passes have him catching 88% of all catchable balls. This points to a much larger problem in Oakland, one that has plagued them for years, and that's the necessity for a good quarterback. Running a power-running scheme like the Raiders, only works if the playbook is refined to incorporate sustainability and dealing with deficits. No offense is 100% running or 100% pass so you need guys who can perform well in limited duty even in the weak points of your game. The 60% reception rate versus the 88% reception of catchable ball rate shows the discrepancy of a quarterback with poor accuracy, bad judgement, or in Oakland's case, both. This is why they signed Matt Schaub in free agency and used a 2nd round draft pick on Derek Carr in hopes of improving overall while maintaining their general scheme. After all, the difference between a bad quarterback and an average one on your team could result in a Lombardi trophy. Just ask the Baltimore Ravens.
Teams sometimes think that if they lack talent at quarterback, they can simply shift to a run-first offense and solve, or at least mask, their problems. Not true. If there's no threat that the quarterback can make the necessary throws downfield, then the defense can key in on the running back and jam up the box with extra men. However, the inverse is true. If you have a talented quarterback, you can get by with sub-par running backs because the defense will back off in coverage and give the runner significantly more room to operate. This is why guys like Peyton Manning are okay with lower tier guys like Joseph Addai and Montee Ball as the primary ball-carrier. It's also why Manning's teams don't require a fullback on the roster, even a more balanced guy like Marcel Reece.
Like I said, Reece is still more of a running back masquerading as a fullback. While he isn't bad at blocking, he doesn't play the role of the lead blocker the way other fullbacks do. Perhaps this is an evolution of the position and he can carve out a niche role in the NFL, much like how Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski have revitalised the tight-end position. Unlike the teams Graham and Gronkowski play for, Reece's Raiders aren't even near successful enough for other teams to take notice. Reece is likely to remain in the shadows as merely a fan favourite until Oakland can prove themselves successful.
According to Forbes, no fullback is attracting big money. In fact, they're paid worse than kickers despite a much higher snap-count, dependence on physicality and risk of injury. Being a fan favourite is pretty much the ceiling for a fullback in today's NFL. Fullbacks are guys I usually root for because not many others do and normally that's about as inconsequential an interest one can have but this year it's different. This year there's an open competition between my two favourite fullbacks, Henry “The Hynocerous” Hynoski and John “The Terminator” Conner, for the starting spot on the New York Giants, my favourite team. So I'm faced with a dilemma.
Perhaps, the biggest impact on how fullbacks will be appraised will come to light in this specific situation. After Giants fullback Hynoski injured his shoulder in Week 3 last season, the team went out and signed John Conner to a two year contract. Conner is previously best known from the HBO documentary series 'Hard Knocks', where he appeared in training camp battles for a starting spot in two different seasons for two different teams. After some painful yet entertaining TV, we see him end up with neither team and looking for work. A two year contract with the Giants right off the bat must have been a godsend for the struggling Conner.
But the Giants' season was worse than just an injured fullback. They started out 0-6 and despite a good resurgence towards the end that netted them a 7-9 finish, it wasn't enough to save jobs and the coaching staff undertook a major reshuffle. Gone now is Kevin Gilbride and his old 'Run And Shoot' playbook which had outstayed its welcome and in came a fresh face in former Green Bay Packers quarterbacks coach, Ben McAdoo, to run the offense.
The problem here is that McAdoo isn't very fond of fullbacks. He would rather use a tight-end to block because it fits better in the West Coast system, which totally ignores that the Giants have two very good fullbacks on the roster and that both are signed through the end of this season at minimum. So, what do you do with them? How do you make them work? At the moment it's looking like the Giants aren't even going to bother trying. The majority of reports about training camp indicate that both Conner and Hynoski are spending most of their time on the sidelines watching while tight-ends line up in the backfield and perform fullback duties.
As a Giants fan, and fan of the fullback position, and fan of both Conner and Hynoski, this is deeply disheartening. You want to see you favourite players on your favourite team, especially when you know they're good at what they do. You certainly don't want your team to eradicate the need for anyone at their position. Devaluing a position and paying them less than other guys is one thing but you certainly don't want to see the league eradicate the need for anyone at that position, let alone your favourite guys on your favourite team.
And perhaps it's not just the fullback but the running game in general that's heading towards extinction. It's no surprise that some teams still heavily rely on it to operate properly, but several of them really only run the ball so that they don't have eight guys dropping into coverage on every play. Could we see a day where the offensive shift is so heavy that a run play would only be used to try catch the defense off-guard much like how fake-punts are used now. Ground and pound football was the past, the NFL is throwing the ball into the future and the numbers heavily favour those who can be multiple with their skillsets. One trick ponies are not welcome, even if you've perfected your trick to the highest level.
When Conner was being cut by Bengals coach Marvin Lewis the second time he was on 'Hard Knocks', the cameras showed everything. Conner thought he had the job. I thoght he had the job. PFF's +2.9 preseason ranking for Conner compared to his rival Orson Charles' +0.1 ranking implied that they too thought he had the job. Coach Lewis delivered the news to a stunned Conner on national television via hidden cameras.
“This is a hard one. I know you’ve put your heart and soul into this. You didn’t do anything wrong. You have done everything. It’s more just maybe the versatility of Orson, not necessarily what you didn’t do.”
Unknowingly, Coach Lewis has summed up not only Conner's immediate future, but the future of a position where Conner and many other have honed their craft. Versatility is key and until you can prove you can do more than one thing, you're at risk. You should have been a running back, or a tight-end or even a kicker apparently. When I think of how McAdoo is going to manipulate the roster to best suit his offense, the fan in me is saddened at the thought of two greats, Hynoski and Conner, standing on the sideline while the coach attempts to fit square pegs in round holes.
Topics Covered: (It's early and we're not on the ball) - (Buffalo Bon Jovies) - (University of Minnesota vs. Dan Snyder) - (Players retiring on their own terms) - (Steven Jackson's hipster art) - (DeSean Jackson needs to stay the fastest) - (49ers' Chip Kelly-esque stadium) - (Kelly Green, Sanchez, Dalton) - (ESPN being ESPN) - (Weekly Weeden Update) - (Zebra Technology) - (Eagles / Giants player swap) - (The Tristan Trio) - (The Murray Bet)
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Top 5 RB vs Top 5 CB, which is a better option?
- Gerald
I like this question. It's short. It's simple. It's to the point. Quite frankly, I could learn a thing or two from this question. I tend to go a little off-topic when given the freedom to wander. I think it all started back on my first day of school ...
STAY ON TOPIC!
Anyway, honestly, I don't think the difference between a top 5 running back and a top 20 running back is big enough to make an impact for your team. Outside of Jamaal Charles, Adrian Peterson and LeSean McCoy, I couldn't really justify making a case for any team being carried by a single running back. There are other guys who perform well in their scheme and may be a significant improvement over their back-up, but I think a team could game-plan around losing them and adjust their team with the draft the following season.
For cornerbacks however, it's a different story. If anyone needs proof of why you don't let your star CB head off into the sunset for another team, look no further than the New York Jets. They trade Darelle Revis to Tampa Bay in exchange for a first-round draft pick. They use that pick to select Dee Milliner. They also spent a first-rounder on Kyle Wilson in 2010 and again spent their first pick on a defensive back by taking safety Calvin Pryor this year.
When you spend a high draft pick on an area of need, it usually means that area is a team weakness. I know there are exceptions in regards to best-player-available strategies but there's no way that the Jets take a secondary player in back-to-back years if Revis is still on that team. I understand they traded him because he wanted more money and was a huge cap hit, but Coach Rex Ryan publicly stated he didn't agree with trading him. He knew how valuable he is and they're struggling to replace him now.
If you look at the other top guys, Richard Sherman, Patrick Peterson, Joe Haden, those guys all signed huge extensions that will presumably tie them to their respective teams for the entirety of their careers. The Jets regret letting Revis go and they'll regret it even more this year when they face him twice a year in a Patriots uniform. They'll try and rely on the running game because nobody in their right mind would suggest that Geno Smith throwing passes to Eric Decker on Revis Island is a winning formula. Even if one of their guys emerges to become top 5 running back, I don't see them coming out on top in either Pats-Jets game this year.
- Alex
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Who's the hottest QB? (excluding Brady, obviously)
- Aaron
While Aaron may have asked this question with a tongue-in-cheek approach, I'm going to answer it seriously. I'm comfortable enough that I can admit when another man is good looking and quarterbacks are notorious pretty-boys with chiseled jaws.
So I present to you, my top 5 stud-muffin QBs (in no particular order).
1. Russell Wilson
2. Sam Bradford
3. Jimmy Garoppolo
4. Alex Smith
5. Cam Newton
However, sometimes the term "hot" can be used to describe streaky so let's assume there is an angle to your question that isn't dripping with sarcastic homoeroticism.
Here are some impressive quarterback streaks that may be of interest:
Eli Manning holds the current active streak of most consecutive regular season starts of any quarterback with 151. However, he still hasn't matched his older brother Peyton's number of 208 which was ended with spine surgery prior to the 2011 season. If Eli wants to catch the #1 ranked Brett Favre in the all-time standings, he'll have to play every game until 2024. Think of how many interceptions he'll have by then!
The record for most pass completions in a single game is held by former Washington F.C. quarterback Mark Brunell when he completed his first 22 passes against the Houston Texans in 2006.
Cleveland Browns stalwart Bernie Kosar holds the record for most pass attempts without an interception with 308 spread over the 1990-1991 seasons.
I hope this answers your questions regarding who is the hottest quarterback.
Topics Covered: (The Final Countdown) - (Hall of Fame Game: Bills / Giants talk) - (Breakout Bruce Ellington) - (Media Recommendation: 'Take Your Eye Off The Ball' by Pat Kirwin) - (The Curious Case of Josh Gordon) - (Tom Coughlin's Cheeks) - (Aldon Aldon Aldon, what will we do with you?) - (DUI don't know) - (Re****ns Facts)
Which is why when the Kansas City Chiefs suffered a dismal year, cleaned house and hired former Philadelphia Eagles legend Andy Reid as the head coach, it made perfect sense for them to also go after the displaced Alex Smith. Smith was never a perfect quarterback, but what he lacked in physical tools, he often made up with awareness. His best asset, and it only came to light later on in his career, is his willingness to acknowledge his limits and play within them.
That lack of self-awareness within a quarterback is what drove Reid out of Philadelphia. Since the decline and departure of his go-to guy, Donovan McNabb, he shuffled through a series of problematic quarterbacks and never really settled.
After too many spins on the roulette wheel, perhaps Andy Reid knows now more than ever about what he wants in a quarterback. Which is why pairing him, a man who knows what he wants, and Smith, a man who knows who he is, resulted in a winning formula last season.
Smith fits Reid's system because it's a West Coast playbook that relies heavily on lateral spacing rather than vertical bombs. It's similar to what he ran in San Francisco but gives him more responsibility in the overall game as Reid has been known to abandon the run for long stretches of time until the passing game can create space up front.
Through utilising screen plays, short passes and the occasional downfield threat, Reid's playbook opens up room for his best offensive weapon, running back Jamaal Charles. But in order to do that, Reid needs a competent quarterback with minimal risk and the ability to win playoff games. Alex Smith and Andy Reid are perfect for each other.
One of the primary functions of Reid's offense is the screen pass and the success they have with them is surprising because of how often they use them. One of the best ways to counter an over-pursuing defense or a relentless pass-rush is through screen-passes. If the other team is hounding your quarterback and knocking him on his butt play-after-play then the screen pass is your best friend. It buys you time, it opens up space, and as the old announcer cliché goes, it makes the defense play honest. What the old fogeys in the box upstairs mean is that it doesn't allow the defense to focus in on one aspect of your game or one part of the field.
According to ProFootballFocus, Smith was second highest in screen yardage as a percentage of total yardage with 14.2% of his final 3,313 yards coming through designed screens. Who needs a big arm when you have Jamaal Charles in the backfield and five stout offensive lineman out in front?
But it wasn't the balls thrown to Kansas City running backs that interested me last year, it was a clever maneuver orchestrated with the wide-receivers that stood out. They used this play twice against the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 3 and a slight variation of it later in the Wild Card game against the Indianapolis Colts. From the moment I saw it, I thought, "Wow, well that's a perfect play for Alex Smith".
After two straight incompletions and an illegal formation penalty to open the drive, the Chiefs were facing 3rd and 15 on their own 15 yard line. The offense lines up in Shotgun Trey Open. This formation dictates 3 receivers to one side of the formation and a lone receiver to the other. The tight-end in this situation is split-out from the offensive line and acts as one of the four receivers.
Rather than trying their luck with a deep pass, the offense does something brilliant. The three receivers to the bottom of the graphic look like they're running verticals. The running back escapes out of the backfield and gets out in front of Donnie Avery, the receiver to the top of the screen, just in time for him to catch the quick pass from Smith. At this point, it quickly becomes clear that the ball was never intended to go to anyone but Avery. He's running a crossing route with four blockers out in front. It's a downfield screen pass. And it's genius.
The defense were caught off guard and paid a huge price. They played it ultra conservative and their approach benefited the Chiefs in a big way. Avery was able to find space to run underneath the downfield blocks and managed to squeeze out just enough yardage for a new set of downs. Last year, the Chiefs were 27th out of 32 teams at converting on 3rd down, only succeeding on 34.7% of their attempts but this play is a Get-Out-Of-Jail-Free card.
So, what went wrong for the defense?
This is a standard 3-3-5 defense, a variant of the 3-4 adapted to cater for the shift towards pass-oriented football by using nickel personnel as the base. It's a popular formation among college football coaches and while the majority of plays in this look are designed to blitz, the Eagles only rush three and are using a prevent option to ensure the ball doesn't reach the first down marker. As you can see, all five defensive backs are hovering around the 30 yard line, which is where the Chiefs need to get to in order to convert the play. The defense knows they need a chunk play to keep the drive going and opted to play it safe but with so many Chiefs players designated to block downfield, Avery has a tunnel right through the defense.
If Chip Kelly is the master of outside-the-box avant-garde football, we weren't seeing it here. Admittedly, this was still early in the game and there was only four points separating the two teams, but a relaxed 3-3-5 prevent this early just doesn't strike me as a very Chip Kelly-esque philosophy. So with the offense facing 3rd and 19 in the next quarter, you'd think Kelly would opt for a more aggressive approach but again, we see the defense heavily backing off.
Despite calling just 18 offensive plays between attempts at this one, the Chiefs succeed again and exploit a massive void in front of the defense and set up Avery with several blockers downfield. Both times this was 3rd and 15+ yards. Both times it was converted.
The defensive strategy was conservative and plain wrong if you're facing a guy like Alex Smith, who racked up 22 of his 27 total touchdown passes last year when the opposing team didn't blitz (stat via PFF). The void in the defense is indicated in white in the graphic above and look at how much space is in front of the secondary even though the Eagles only rushed four guys.
Understandably, if you're going to blitz the Chiefs, they'll roll out a wider selection of screen passes to counter but at the same time, giving Smith a ton of time on 3rd and long is a terrible idea. When he's not pressured, Smith's pass completion percentage was 19% better last year than when he had guys in his face.
But here's the beauty of this play, it would have worked against a heavy blitz too because all it needs is an intermediate space on the field and a single read. As long as the defense is executing extreme movement in one way or another (blitz or back off), there will be space to run this play.
I was really excited to see a variant of the Philly play emerge late in the 4th quarter in the Wild Card playoff game against the Indianapolis Colts.
3rd and 7 with 7.24 left, the Chiefs have suffered significant injuries and need a spark. They've thrown away a huge advantage and are only ahead by a mere field goal after previously storming out to a 28 point lead early in the game.
They start by lining up as Shotgun Wing Trio with one running back initially flanking Smith. In a different situation, it's possible they opt for a different play, or maybe don't even end up in this scenario if powerhouse Jamaal Charles hadn't gotten injured in the first quarter. As a result, it's Knile Davis lining up beside Smith before being flexed out to the far left of the formation. Now it's an empty set and it looks like it's up to Smith to make a play.
7 yards is a much shorter distance than the 15+ yards of each conversion in Philadelphia so it's not surprising that the Colts adopted a different strategy to what the Eagles took and overload blitzed from a Cover One Nickel formation. This is a smart move and if you were drawing up a play to counter the downfield screen, it would be this. Unfortunately, a failure in execution caused this design to crumble once the play was in motion.
LB Kavell Connor follows RB Davis out to the left of the formation, almost ensuring a man coverage because putting a linebacker out wide in zone coverage with a single-high safety is a recipe for disaster. So it's man coverage across the board with free-safety Corey Lynch covering the deep middle and CB Darius Butler taking the underneath zone.
They overload the strong side of the line with a three guys blitzing in the hope of finding an open channel. They added a different kind of wrinkle to this play though and it would have been smart had it worked. DE Cory Redding (standing over #61 in the graphic above) engages the line and backs out immediately. After this, he chips TE Anthony Fasano. LB Jerrell Freeman is already covering Fasano so the chip is unnecessary and means that the offense can block two defenders with one guy. This is the first problem.
CB Butler is occupied by WR Junior Hemingway and can't make a break on the crossing route by WR A.J. Jenkins. This is the second problem.
After getting a clean release off the line, Jenkins has gained a step on Colts CB Sean Smith who was aligned opposite. CB Smith stumbles trying to adjust and Jenkins is clear. This is the third problem.
While the shallow-crossing route is a man-beater anyway, the stumbling definitely didn't help. Neither CB Butler, nor DE Redding notice Jenkins coming across the field and the quarterback pops a short pass over the blitz into the warm embrace of Jenkins. Junior Hemingway cuts in front of CB Smith with a big block and Jenkins is free as you can see above.
From offensive left to right (read as bottom to top in the graphic), it's RB Davis out wide, WR Dwayne Bowe in the slot, TE Fasano and WR Hemingway are attached to the line with WR Jenkins on the far side by himself. This is far from an ideal personnel grouping for the Chiefs and the rash of injuries have forced them into this.
That said, the personnel is one of the reasons this play worked. A.J. Jenkins was drafted in the first round by the San Francisco 49ers the same year that the Chiefs drafted another receiver, Jonathan Baldwin. Both were unimpressive on their respective teams and after just one season, the teams decided to do a straight swap for their embattled receivers. Baldwin went to the Niners in hopes of greener pastures and Jenkins went to Kansas City with the possibility of breaking out in an underperforming receiving corps.
Despite being a 1st round pick, Jenkins never caught a pass for the Niners. In fact, his first career reception came 511 days after he was drafted. Even after the transition to a new team, Jenkins wasn't great but at least he was on the board with 8 catches for 130 yards on the season. Not amazing, but definitely better than nothing.
Here's why I really like this play because its Jenkins lack of success that makes this interesting. With the downfield screen pass, there is only one active target. By making the rogue Jenkins the active receiver, Reid caught the defense napping. The stalwart of this play, Donnie Avery, suffered a concussion in this game so he couldn't be the guy. The defense would never have been keyed in on Jenkins as the focal point of this offense so it would be crazy to use him here right?
WRONG. FIRST DOWN.
Ultimately, it didn't matter in this specific game though. The Chiefs lost four starters to injury and the Colts rallied behind Andrew Luck's phenomenal performance to squeeze out a 45-44 victory and send the Chiefs packing.
It's sure to be a sore memory for Chiefs fans but the season as a whole can only be looked at as a success. Andy Reid and Alex Smith took a team that went 2-14 the previous year and lead them to the playoffs. At one point, they were 9-0 and were the first team in history to go from having the #1 draft pick one year, to the last remaining undefeated team the next. If Reid can develop Jenkins into even an average receiver then his career's not over yet. The Chiefs obviously have enough faith in this bunch of guys to not have spent a single draft pick at the receiver position this year and adding Oregon RB De'Anthony Thomas in the draft will give them a speedy option for more designed screens too. While many are predicting a middling team in 2014, I'm all in behind the genius of Andy Reid.
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All images obtained by screengrabbing NFL GamePass. All rights respectively belong to the NFL and NBC.
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Hey guys,
Really enjoying the site.
Who can you see having the best chance of making the Super Bowl outside of the two big teams in NFC (Seahawks, 49ers) and AFC (Patriots, Broncos) because it seems like they're going to the championship games already, it's just the question of who can beat the other.
- Gerald
Hi Gerald.
With the NFC, I see two strong contenders in the North with the Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers. I know in real life you're a Vikings fan so that might hurt you to read that but unfortunately, I think both of those teams are in for a very good seasons. The eternal question with both is health. While their compatriots to the West have had remarkable luck with starting personnel, the North and East are perennially on injury reports. Aaron Rodgers has had a few concussions now and suffering one at the wrong time could derail the whole season and although Jay Cutler hasn't been a picture of stability either, it's feasible that either team could reach the big game.
It's also very difficult to not consider the Saints when you look at top contenders, at least while they still have Drew Brees. He owns half of the 5,000+ yard seasons in history and they just upgraded his receiving corps with the addition of Brandin Cooks in the draft. They also did work on the back-end with the signing of Jairus Byrd to pair with last year's rookie phenom, Kenny Vaccaro. They'll be in contention and they've shown they can do it before so there's no reason to think they can't make another run.
In the AFC, the competition is a little more muddied. There doesn't seem to be a clear winner of the off-season arms race outside of the Patriots and the Broncos, which, like you said, are already favourites. If we're not looking at either of those though, there are only two teams I think could make it the distance and those are the Indianapolis Colts and the Kansas City Chiefs.
After last year's Wild Card playoff game between these two teams, I will never discount Andrew Luck in any game. The guy is the next Peyton Manning and Tom Brady with a little speed thrown in for good measure. There's nothing to not like about him. He's going into his third year now and he'll be expected to carry that team the way Manning did during his tenure there. With a trio of top receivers (Hilton, Wayne, Nicks) and two solid tight-ends (Allen, Fleener), there is no shortage of weapons at Luck's disposal. If they can manufacture some semblance of a running game from the broken backfield of Trent Richardson and Ahmad Bradshaw, then they should be favourite in the majority of games this season.
As for the Chiefs, that offense really came into its own down the stretch last year and if they can keep that defense healthy and Jamaal Charles gets an All You Can Eat workload, then they're a top contender in a weak conference. People forget that we were one Kyle Williams fumble away from seeing Alex Smith in the Super Bowl in 2011 and that he was the backup to Kaepernick on the 49ers when they went there in 2012.
Ultimately, someone else will emerge as a top team in both divisions much like what happened with the Carolina Panthers last year and there will also be the annual fall from grace from a big powerhouse, like the Falcons, so you can pretty much pencil in the Patriots with the first pick in the draft and give the Cleveland Browns their Lombardi trophy now.
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