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The Week Ahead 24th July
The Week Ahead 24th July
It was all about Draghi on Thursday of course with a little help from the Russia re-probe. The king of verbal intervention played his last card – and lost. It wasn’t that he said anything particularly hawkish but the market lost patience and began to start a real pricing in a taper. Broad USD weakness hasn’t changed still but there are tiny signs of life Monday evening as I write this outlook.…
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The Week Ahead 17th July
The Week Ahead 17th July
RECAP USD bulls waited, hoped and wished. They even prayed. All that was needed was a decent CPI. This along with the recent and decent GDP would have been enough. But no fairy tale and certainly no confidence later in the afternoon. CPI wasn’t truly awful – just a touch softer and core was actually in line. A few are blaming the miss on Retail Sales but that alone should not have made the…
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The Week Ahead 9th July
The Week Ahead 9th July
RECAP LAST WEEK Last week I mentioned USD bargain buyers needed to turn up and they did. In EURUSD we failed to successfully get above 1.1450 (Let’s not forget the key yearly levels we’ve been banging on about of 1.1435/65) Fair valued quants stepped in – along with Cable at the 1.3050 area so expect these to be defended robustly again in the coming week. I remain a rally seller on both pairs. …
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The Week Ahead 19th June
The Week Ahead 19th June
RECAP LAST WEEK Apologies again for the no show last week. I’m not going to blame it on quadratic sequences – I just needed a break from the markets. Sometimes it’s good to take a step back and look at the big picture. Not just the markets but at yourself. The big event everyone bought into was a dovish hike from Yellen. USD was getting hit prior to the release but was wrong footed because the…
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The Week Ahead 4th June
The Week Ahead 4th June
RECAP LAST WEEK Apologies for the no-show last week. I was shattered doing algebra. USD got hit as from Tuesday and then on Friday we saw some proper re-pricing into the now-not-so-certain June hike. NFP was a miss but it was how the USD reacted at The NA close which made me rethink June. EURUSD didn’t need much encouragement all week and we ended near the yearly highs at 1.1280, USDJPY was OFF…
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The Week Ahead 24th May
The Week Ahead 24th May
Firstly apologies for the delay – I’ve been busy doing polynomial equations. You’re right, I need to get out more. Any way on with the job at hand. It’s a little light but I’ll do my best. Last week was all about EURUSD as it took flight from around 1.0900 then fully breaking 1.12 today. We previously mentioned the FOMC is behind the curve and the market is re-pricing this accordingly. Things…
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The Week Ahead 15th May
The Week Ahead 15th May
The general theme was broad USD strength with EURUSD and CABLE giving back many of their recent gains. The only fly in the ointment was US CPI and Retail Sales on Friday at a touch softer. This on it’s own is not going to effect the FFF at currently 95% for a June hike but a few questions may be asked if it gets a turn for the worse datawise. Remember The FED is currently behind the curve so a…
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The Week Ahead 8th May
The Week Ahead 8th May
RECAP LAST WEEK It was a full week of data but most of it in-line. A few desks (including me) thought weak PCE personal spending would have seen the USD sell off however it took it on the chin. That resilience lasted just over a day then USD decided to give in – EURUSD and CABLE the main recipients of this weakness. The former closed at 6 monthly highs of 1.0998 all primed and ready for a Macron…
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The Week Ahead 30th April
The Week Ahead 30th April
RECAP LAST WEEK EURUSD The gap up post French Elections didn’t get filled around 1.0777 but the weekly high at 1.0950 held strong to make a triple top. Draghi and the reduced “tail risk” couldn’t break it. Nor could EUR CPI Core at >.2 above expectation. This is very significant to me. The support at 1.0850 is battling with strong resistance at 1.0950 but I prefer to play from the short side. The…
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The Week Ahead 23rd April
The Week Ahead 23rd April
RECAP LAST WEEK *****Please note this was taken prior to French Elections. See Patrick Reid updates on Linked In for more******* It was all about CABLE with UK’s Theresa May and the snap election decision. The leak on Tuesday had sellers emerging but when the official announcement came CABLE soared nearly 4 big figures. We bought the dip around 1.25 but should have held it. Harry hindsight is a…
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The Week Ahead 17th April
The Week Ahead 17th April
RECAP FROM LAST WEEK We were wrong last week suggesting to buy USD dips. All the evidence was there – especially with a weak NFP the previous Friday and noticing how USD recovered. By looking at last weeks price action the market has given us many clues as to what direction it may take. In this case it was unsure and directionless – with no real conviction. That is the “direction” we need to be…
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The Week Ahead 9th April
The Week Ahead 9th April
Recap last week. The start of the week was very subdued with EURUSD having 30/50 tick ranges. CABLE tried it’s best to stay above 1.25 but failed. USDJPY was a horrible price action to trade – jerky moves and no conviction. And RISK OFF never far away. Majors were at the mercy of crosses and for much of the week the tail most certainly wagged the dog. On Wednesday USDJPY gave up its strong ADP…
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The Week Ahead 2nd April
The Week Ahead 2nd April
Last week USD was mixed on the week and EURUSD suffered the most. USDJPY lost its weekly high of 112.20. I’ve been mentioning 112 as a key level to break and stay above on Linkedin all week. We broke we failed. EURUSD gave up the goose from Monday and Friday’s miss on CPI had saw Draghi’s knowingly wry smile return. If he had a mustache he would be stroking it. I say that because he’s currently…
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The Week Ahead 26th March
The Week Ahead 26th March
RECAP LAST WEEK Trump just couldn’t do it. And then the real boss decided to flex its muscles – Congress. After delaying the vote until Friday leader of the House, Paul Ryan advised Trump “the deal maker” to pull the vote. This was a major set back for Trumpflation trades – particularly USDJPY. The market is not particularly focused on the Obama repeal per se, but if they can’t get this through…
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The Week Ahead 19th March
The Week Ahead 19th March
RECAP LAST WEEK It was all about the DOTS and how The FOMC didn’t deliver. That’s one way of looking at it but in reality they hiked 25bps and kept pretty much the same median forecast from December. The market was clearly ahead of itself as most currencies moved >100 pips. USD took a big hit. EURUSD had strength before this and broke 100DMA at 1.0645 then stayed above. It closed at the highs so…
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The Week Ahead 12th March
The Week Ahead 12th March
RECAP In last weeks post I mentioned EURUSD finding a base near the 1.0500/20 area. This turned out to be the weeks low. Even a blockbuster ADP and fairly respectable NFP couldn’t dent it’s resilience. Wages were a touch weaker but the headline should have been enough to take this pair lower. The high on Friday was 1.0696 – just shy of a key DAILY level at 1.0710. Silver tongued Mario Draghi…
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The Week Ahead 5th March
The Week Ahead 5th March
Recap last week Three words – Trump delivered strength. And the relentless USD followed suit – along with risk trades, mainly in the shape of US equities. USDJPY started Monday really weak but then bounced off a key level we’ve been shouting about at 111.60 It then made a weekly high of 114.75 Friday saw a USD correction only because the market is now focused on the rate of subsequent hikes –…
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