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The 12 Cognitive Biases That Prevent You From Being Rational
The human brain is capable of 1016 processes per second, which makes it far more powerful than any computer currently in existence. But that doesn’t mean our brains don’t have major limitations. The lowly calculator can do math thousands of times better than we can, and our memories are often less than useless — plus, we’re subject to cognitive biases, those annoying glitches in our thinking that cause us to make questionable decisions and reach erroneous conclusions. Here are a dozen of the most common and pernicious cognitive biases that you need to know about.
Before we start, it’s important to distinguish between cognitive biases and logical fallacies. A logical fallacy is an error in logical argumentation (e.g. ad hominem attacks, slippery slopes, circular arguments, appeal to force, etc.). A cognitive bias, on the other hand, is a genuine deficiency or limitation in our thinking — a flaw in judgment that arises from errors of memory, social attribution, and miscalculations (such as statistical errors or a false sense of probability).
Some social psychologists believe our cognitive biases help us process information more efficiently, especially in dangerous situations. Still, they lead us to make grave mistakes. We may be prone to such errors in judgment, but at least we can be aware of them. Here are some important ones to keep in mind.
Confirmation Bias We love to agree with people who agree with us. It’s why we only visit websites that express our political opinions, and why we mostly hang around people who hold similar views and tastes. We tend to be put off by individuals, groups, and news sources that make us feel uncomfortable or insecure about our views — what the behavioral psychologist B. F. Skinner called cognitive dissonance. It’s this preferential mode of behavior that leads to the confirmation bias — the often unconscious act of referencing only those perspectives that fuel our pre-existing views, while at the same time ignoring or dismissing opinions — no matter how valid — that threaten our world view. And paradoxically, the internet has only made this tendency even worse.
Ingroup Bias Somewhat similar to the confirmation bias is the ingroup bias, a manifestation of our innate tribalistic tendencies. And strangely, much of this effect may have to do with oxytocin — the so-called “love molecule.” This neurotransmitter, while helping us to forge tighter bonds with people in our ingroup, performs the exact opposite function for those on the outside — it makes us suspicious, fearful, and even disdainful of others. Ultimately, the ingroup bias causes us to overestimate the abilities and value of our immediate group at the expense of people we don’t really know.
Gambler’s Fallacy It’s called a fallacy, but it’s more a glitch in our thinking. We tend to put a tremendous amount of weight on previous events, believing that they’ll somehow influence future outcomes. The classic example is coin-tossing. After flipping heads, say, five consecutive times, our inclination is to predict an increase in likelihood that the next coin toss will be tails — that the odds must certainly be in the favor of heads. But in reality, the odds are still 50/50. As statisticians say, the outcomes in different tosses are statistically independent and the probability of any outcome is still 50%.
Relatedly, there’s also the positive expectation bias — which often fuels gambling addictions. It’s the sense that our luck has to eventually change and that good fortune is on the way. It also contribues to the “hot hand” misconception. Similarly, it’s the same feeling we get when we start a new relationship that leads us to believe it will be better than the last one.
Post-Purchase Rationalization Remember that time you bought something totally unnecessary, faulty, or overly expense, and then you rationalized the purchase to such an extent that you convinced yourself it was a great idea all along? Yeah, that’s post-purchase rationalization in action — a kind of built-in mechanism that makes us feel better after we make crappy decisions, especially at the cash register. Also known as Buyer’s Stockholm Syndrome, it’s a way of subconsciously justifying our purchases — especially expensive ones. Social psychologists say it stems from the principle of commitment, our psychological desire to stay consistent and avoid a state of cognitive dissonance.
Neglecting Probability Very few of us have a problem getting into a car and going for a drive, but many of us experience great trepidation about stepping inside an airplane and flying at 35,000 feet. Flying, quite obviously, is a wholly unnatural and seemingly hazardous activity. Yet virtually all of us know and acknowledge the fact that the probability of dying in an auto accident is significantly greater than getting killed in a plane crash — but our brains won’t release us from this crystal clear logic (statistically, we have a 1 in 84 chance of dying in a vehicular accident, as compared to a 1 in 5,000 chance of dying in an plane crash [other sources indicate odds as high as 1 in 20,000]). It’s the same phenomenon that makes us worry about getting killed in an act of terrorism as opposed to something far more probable, like falling down the stairs or accidental poisoning.
This is what the social psychologist Cass Sunstein calls probability neglect— our inability to properly grasp a proper sense of peril and risk — which often leads us to overstate the risks of relatively harmless activities, while forcing us to overrate more dangerous ones.
Observational Selection Bias This is that effect of suddenly noticing things we didn’t notice that much before — but we wrongly assume that the frequency has increased. A perfect example is what happens after we buy a new car and we inexplicably start to see the same car virtually everywhere. A similar effect happens to pregnant women who suddenly notice a lot of other pregnant women around them. Or it could be a unique number or song. It’s not that these things are appearing more frequently, it’s that we’ve (for whatever reason) selected the item in our mind, and in turn, are noticing it more often. Trouble is, most people don’t recognize this as a selectional bias, and actually believe these items or events are happening with increased frequency — which can be a very disconcerting feeling. It’s also a cognitive bias that contributes to the feeling that the appearance of certain things or events couldn’t possibly be a coincidence (even though it is).
Status-Quo Bias We humans tend to be apprehensive of change, which often leads us to make choices that guarantee that things remain the same, or change as little as possible. Needless to say, this has ramifications in everything from politics to economics. We like to stick to our routines, political parties, and our favorite meals at restaurants. Part of the perniciousness of this bias is the unwarranted assumption that another choice will be inferior or make things worse. The status-quo bias can be summed with the saying, “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” — an adage that fuels our conservative tendencies. And in fact, some commentators say this is why the U.S. hasn’t been able to enact universal health care, despite the fact that most individuals support the idea of reform.
Negativity Bias People tend to pay more attention to bad news — and it’s not just because we’re morbid. Social scientists theorize that it’s on account of our selective attention and that, given the choice, we perceive negative news as being more important or profound. We also tend to give more credibility to bad news, perhaps because we’re suspicious (or bored) of proclamations to the contrary. More evolutionarily, heeding bad news may be more adaptive than ignoring good news (e.g. “saber tooth tigers suck” vs. “this berry tastes good”). Today, we run the risk of dwelling on negativity at the expense of genuinely good news. Steven Pinker, in his book The Better Angels of Our Nature: Why Violence Has Declined, argues that crime, violence, war, and other injustices are steadily declining, yet most people would argue that things are getting worse — what is a perfect example of the negativity bias at work.
Bandwagon Effect Though we’re often unconscious of it, we love to go with the flow of the crowd. When the masses start to pick a winner or a favorite, that’s when our individualized brains start to shut down and enter into a kind of “groupthink” or hivemind mentality. But it doesn’t have to be a large crowd or the whims of an entire nation; it can include small groups, like a family or even a small group of office co-workers. The bandwagon effect is what often causes behaviors, social norms, and memes to propagate among groups of individuals — regardless of the evidence or motives in support. This is why opinion polls are often maligned, as they can steer the perspectives of individuals accordingly. Much of this bias has to do with our built-in desire to fit in and conform, as famously demonstrated by the Asch Conformity Experiments.
Projection Bias As individuals trapped inside our own minds 24/7, it’s often difficult for us to project outside the bounds of our own consciousness and preferences. We tend to assume that most people think just like us — though there may be no justification for it. This cognitive shortcoming often leads to a related effect known as the false consensus bias where we tend to believe that people not only think like us, but that they also agree with us. It’s a bias where we overestimate how typical and normal we are, and assume that a consensus exists on matters when there may be none. Moreover, it can also create the effect where the members of a radical or fringe group assume that more people on the outside agree with them than is the case. Or the exaggerated confidence one has when predicting the winner of an election or sports match.
The Current Moment Bias We humans have a really hard time imagining ourselves in the future and altering our behaviors and expectations accordingly. Most of us would rather experience pleasure in the current moment, while leaving the pain for later. This is a bias that is of particular concern to economists (i.e. our unwillingness to not overspend and save money) and health practitioners. Indeed, a 1998 study showed that, when making food choices for the coming week, 74% of participants chose fruit. But when the food choice was for the current day, 70% chose chocolate.
Anchoring Effect Also known as the relativity trap, this is the tendency we have to compare and contrast only a limited set of items. It’s called the anchoring effect because we tend to fixate on a value or number that in turn gets compared to everything else. The classic example is an item at the store that’s on sale; we tend to see (and value) the difference in price, but not the overall price itself. This is why some restaurant menus feature very expensive entrees, while also including more (apparently) reasonably priced ones. It’s also why, when given a choice, we tend to pick the middle option — not too expensive, and not too cheap.
Source: io9
What Is The Best Environment For Your Sign?
Aries: Any situation that requires action, courage in the face of fear, competition, and freedom of choice. Aries individuals are better outside being active than staying close to home. Taurus: A secluded home close to nature. Good food is also important. Beauty and comfort are a must. Gemini: Any busy neighborhood, places where people gather to gossip, bookstores, museums. Cancer: Cancer will always be most comfortable at home, close to family, familiar things, and dear friends.
Leo: In the sun! Also any place where Leo has a chance to be creative or shine in front of others. Virgo: Virgo is most at home in the company of animals and close to nature. Virgo likes power and enjoys being the sidekick or indispensable assistant. Libra: Any place that is beautiful where the company is harmonious. Very social and happiest doing things in the company of another. Scorpio: Dark, sensuous places, any situation that offers power or rouses strong feelings.
Sagittarius: Outside, on the move. Capricorn: Positive work situation, urban environments with culture and style, anyplace to be in charge. Aquarius: Any gathering of people to exchange ideas. Pisces: On or near water, especially the sea. The movie theater.
Source: Unknown
“It’s better to have nobody than somebody who is half there, or doesn’t want to be there, or is there and then disappears.”
— Angelina Jolie, Vanity Fair, September 2005 (via homicidalbrunette)
poetic lunar sign- walt whitman
Moon in Aries
“I am larger, better than I thought; I did not know I held so much goodness. Whoever denies me, it shall not trouble me; Whoever accepts me, he or she shall be blessed, and shall bless me.”
Moon in Taurus
“To me, every hour of the day and night is an unspeakably perfect miracle.”
Moon in Gemini
“Do I contradict myself? Very well, then, I contradict myself; I am large – I contain multitudes.”
Moon in Cancer
“I will sleep no more but arise, You oceans that have been calm within me! how I feel you, fathomless, stirring, preparing unprecedented waves and storms.”
Moon in Leo
“What is that you express in your eyes? It seems to me more than all the print I have read in my life”
Moon in Virgo
“You shall no longer take things at second or third hand, not look through the eyes of the dead, nor feed on the spectres in books. You shall not look through my eyes either, you shall listen to all sides and filter them from yourself.”
Moon in Libra
“And the human race is filled with passion. So medicine, law, business, engineering… these are noble pursuits and necessary to sustain life. But poetry, beauty, romance, love… these are what we stay alive for.”
Moon in Scorpio
“Behold I do not give lectures or a little charity, when I give I give myself. I do not ask who you are, that is not important to me, You can do nothing and be nothing but I will infold you.”
Moon in Sagittarius
“Pointing to another world will never stop vice among us; shedding light over this world can alone help us.”
Moon in Capricorn
“I have said that the soul is not more than the body, And I have said that the body is not more than the soul, And nothing is greater to one than one’s-self is”
Moon in Aquarius
“Stand up for the stupid and crazy, devote your income and labor to others, hate tyrants…have patience and indulgence toward the people…re-examine all you have been told at school or church or in any book, dismiss whatever insults your own soul, and your very flesh shall be a great poem”
Moon in Pisces
“I do not ask the wounded person how he feels, I myself become the wounded person.”
Nadezhda Illarionova, Illustration for Charles Perrault's "Puss in Boots"
David Wiesner
Best Films before 1924: When Knighthood Was in Flower (1922)
My title-card collage of the 1922 Marion Davies’ film When Knighthood Was in Flower
Just over a hundred years ago, in 1924, Screenland magazine took stock of the maturing feature-film medium. Canvassing industry figures like magazine and newspaper critics and editors, writers, and the head of a major studio and then including feedback from the magazine’s readers; Screenland reported the “Best Screen Dramas” made to date. [More about that here!]
Number 10 on that list was the Tudor-era drama and Marion Davies’ vehicle When Knighthood Was in Flower (1922)
Learn more about the film, how it was received in its time, and how well it holds up in this century below the jump!
Planet Earth II: Episode 05 - Grasslands
Mars in Libra -
A cupid at the battlefield.
Ever since I listened to Cates episode on Las Culturistas I’ve realized how badly I need a “Do you want to fuck me Barbara?” shirt😔
I like that there’s an Etsy listing for legitimately everything.
As it was, Marillac reported that Katherine was “so weak that she could hardly speak, but confessed in a few words that she merited a hundred deaths for so offending the King who had so graciously treated her.” Naturally Katherine was fragile at this point, worn down as she was by prolonged fear, sleeplessness, the injustice of her situation and an overwhelming sense of helplessness. Chapuys, too, noted that Katherine had little to say, only confessing her guilt and praying for the king’s welfare and prosperity. In other words her scaffold speech followed the standard pattern.
When Katherine had spoken, she handed the headsman a purse containing some coins: his fee and alms for the poor. Her ladies then removed her hood, gloves and mantle and caught her auburn hair into a white linen coif. Next, they bound her eyes with bandages so that she would not see the ground rising to meet her in those final few seconds before the darkness came. They then withdrew to the back of the scaffold. They still had one more duty to perform for their mistress.
Katherine knelt and said her prayers; then she positioned herself on the block just as she had rehearsed during the last short night of her life. Mercifully, the headsman removed her head with a single stroke of the axe.
Katherine Howard: The Tragic Story of Henry VIII’s Fifth Queen - Josephine Wilkinson
TAMZIN MERCHANT AS QUEEN KATHERINE HOWARD
england's rose without a thorn
TAMZIN MERCHANT AS QUEEN KATHERINE HOWARD
to have obtained such a perfect jewel of womanhood
Title cards from some classic noir movies (1940 - 1952)