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A home crowd left the Forum Fribourg stunned after the United States took a 2-0 lead against Switzerland in their first round Davis Cup World Group clash, as John Isner shocked Roger Federer 4-6, 6-3, 7-6 (4), 6-2 and Mardy Fish defeated Stanislas Wawrinka 6-2, 4-6, 4-6, 6-1, 9-7 in a 4 hour 26 minute showdown.

Davis Cup Stunner in Switzerland - Isner upsets Federer, Fish outlasts Wawrinka to put U.S. up 2-0 | Tennis Panorama

I'm less shocked that John Isner beat Roger Federer--though let's face it, that's pretty shocking!--but rather that he did by breaking Federer's serve. I didn't know Isner knew how to do that.

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The New Rivalry

Is it just me or has Djokovic/Nadal become a more anticipated battle than the classic Nadal/Federer? It's more than just the high stakes of playing a final and battling to be considered the best in the sport. There are still legacies at stake here. Federer has firmly cemented his place as the greatest of all time, but where do Nole and Rafa fit in? Nadal has been primed to have his own Federer-like reign the moment Roger showed the slightest decline. but thus far that reign has been shockingly short-lived. Now Nadal has his own Nadal--the one player he just can't seem to beat--in the form of Djokovic. Problem is, no one else can beat Djokovic either. So final after final, Nadal has returned to bridesmaid status. What's at stake in the AO final? The stuff of legacies. If Nadal wins, the narrative of 2012 becomes Nadal's breaking of the Nole Curse, and his gradual re-ascent to #1. If Djokovic wins, all claims of a brilliant but fluke year go to pot. The sky, again, is the limit. Both players have looked phenomenal all tournament. Nadal looked slightly more invincible in his semifinal against Federer than Djokovic did against Andy Murray, but that goes out the window in their head-to-head. Djokovic beat Nadal six times last year, all in finals, on three different surfaces. He's in Nadal's head. The only way I can see Nadal overcoming his mental block against Djokovic is if he overwhelms Nole with sheer physicality. Easier said than done these days. Prediction: Djokovic in four.

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quick update

The url for this site is now http://unforcederror.net.

Those of you following on tumblr will still be seeing everything in your dashboard - you don't have to change anything.

Also, I've begun tweeting strictly about tennis at @ErrorUnforced, to spare my music-loving friends all the tennis spam, and my tennis-loving friends the music spam. (If you don't know, my main, non-tennis twitter account is @pgwp)

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Quarterfinal Preview, Part I

Victoria Azarenka (BLR) [3] vs Agnieszka Radwanska (POL) [8] Azarenka is on a not-so-short list of women poised to finally break through in the WTA. In fact, Radwanska is on that list too, if a little further down. I don't think this is the year for either of them, quite frankly--though I think Azarenka's disappointment will wait for another couple of days.

Prediction: Azarenka in three.

Caroline Wozniacki (DEN) [1] vs Kim Clijsters (BEL) [11] Well, the match of the tournament so far goes to Kim Clijsters in her miraculous victory over Li Na. The question at hand is whether her rolled ankle is still bothering her now the adrenaline has worn off. Wozniacki is playing great and I think if she sees even the slightest open door against Clijsters, she's going to go through.

Prediction: Wozniacki d Clijsters in straights

Juan Martin del Potro (ARG) [11] vs Roger Federer (SUI) [3] Del Potro has yet to return to his pre-injury prominence, when he beat Federer in the US Open and charged his way into the top 5. By all signs he's in top form right now, having lost only one set in the first match of the tournament. Federer is no slouch though; he too is playing as well as he's ever played in the last few years. Federer has not really been challenged thus far, so we'll see in this match whether his effortless style of play is due to his form or due to the fact that it simply hasn't yet taken a lot of effort. This is going to be the match of the day.

Prediction: Federer in five.

Tomas Berdych (CZE) [7] vs Rafael Nadal (ESP) [2] Why is everyone still playing? Berdych already took the title. Wait, they weren't competing for "most hated man in the draw"? Oh, I see. Prepare for schaedenfreud.

Prediction: Nadal in straights.

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Matches to Watch, Day 7

Hmm, got almost all my predictions wrong yesterday (except for the expected Sharapova beatdown and the Kvitova win—though the latter did not go down how I thought it would.) With that grain of salt, here goes for day 7:

Kim Clijsters (BEL) [11] vs Li Na (CHN) [5] If this were the final, I'd be stoked. Alas, we're not even into week two, which kinda makes me even more stoked. This should hopefully be the best match of the day. Both are past champions, and neither has dropped a set so far. Should be a battle, but I think Li is the hungrier player.

Prediction: Li in three.

Caroline Wozniacki (DEN) [1] vs Jelena Jankovic (SRB) [13] A marquee match... so why does it feel anticlimactic before it's even begun? Jankovic was once one of the most exciting players in the WTA but her game (and her demeanor) are a lot less compelling these days. I'd love to see Wozniacki finally come through at a Grand Slam but I'm past the point of feeling like she actually will. It will be a tough match for both, and I think it's Wozniacki who will hang on a while longer.

Prediction: Wozniacki in three.

Bernard Tomic (AUS) vs Roger Federer (SUI) [3] Tomic has been the story of the first week—an exciting player with a weird, somewhat immature game and a refreshingly blunt personality. As an Australian the glare of the spotlight is already pretty bright—a win here would turn it up about 1,000%. I'm hoping for an entertaining match, but I doubt Tomic will still be the story in week two.

Prediction: Federer in straights.

Feliciano Lopez (ESP) [18] vs Rafael Nadal (ESP) [2] Nadal has had no trouble whatsoever thus far, cruising through three rounds without dropping a set. Lopez will be his toughest challenge so far, for whatever that's worth. Okay, so what is that worth? Not much.

Prediction: Nadal in straights.

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Matches to Watch, Day 6

Maria Kirilenko (RUS) [27] vs Petra Kvitova (CZE) [2] In 2012, watching Petra Kvitova flirt with disaster is the new watching Caroline Wozniacki flirt with disaster. Her 2nd round match was bonkers, for good or ill all on her racquet. The competition is only going to get tougher from here on out. I'd like to think she's going to rein herself in today.

Prediction: Kvitova in three.

Angelique Kerber (GER) [30] vs Maria Sharapova (RUS) [4] Standing by my prediction that Sharapova is going to crush everyone this year. I only want to watch this match in order to relish the pain she will inflict.

Prediction: Sharapova in straights.

Milos Raonic (CAN) [23] vs Lleyton Hewitt (AUS) The crowd's gonna want their former #1 to take it, but they'll have to settle for watching him continue his slow fade.

Prediction: Raonic in four.

Janko Tipsaravic (SRB) [9] vs Richard Gasquet (FRA) [17] I first fell in love with Tipsaravic at the Australian Open, when he took Federer to five heart-stopping sets a few years ago. This tournament agrees with him, so I think he'll stay. Look for Gasquet to make it difficult, however.

Prediction: Tipsaravic in five.

Other matches to keep an eye on... will Vania King upset Ana Ivanovic? Maybe. Will Michael Llodra upset Andy Murray? Probably not, but wouldn't it be great if he did? Meanwhile Djokovic is going to continue to roll without trouble, as will Serena.... Frenchmen Tsonga and Monfils should be sticking around for the second week...Zheng/Bartoli and Benneteau/Nishikori could be fun though I'm not enamored of any of them...and I'd love to see Sorana Cirstea's charmed run last a little longer. No reason why it shouldn't.

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Matches to Watch, Day 5

Ivo Karlovic (CRO) vs Roger Federer (SUI) [3] Roger and his aching back should be well-rested after his second-round walkover. He'll need a strong back to keep up with Karlovic's scary ass serve--the biggest serve in the game. I saw Karlovic in person last year at Indian Wells and let me tell you, this dude is HUGE. He's also eminently beatable since, other than his serve, he doesn't have the greatest game--and certainly not compared to Federer. Like John Isner, Karlovic succeeds mostly because he's difficult to break. But Federer is too good.

Prediction: Federer in straights

Alexandr Dolgopolov (UKR) [13] vs Bernard Tomic (AUS) The two most fascinating, most entertaining up-and-comers in the game right now (with Milos Raonic not far behind). Dolgopolov has been agonizingly inconsistent thus far, going five sets in both of his previous matches. Tomic has had his erratic moments too, but I think he's feeling the buzz of being a hometown favorite to push him. Watch for wild swings in both players' favor, but ultimately Tomic's craftiness will win out.

Prediction: Tomic in five

John Isner (USA) [16] vs Feliciano Lopez (ESP) [18] The last American man standing! If only I liked his one-dimensional game more. Lopez will be a bigger challenge than Nalbandian was (which is saying something, because Nalbandian was a challenge!), but the longer the match goes, the more I think Isner will pound Lopez into submission.

Prediction: Isner in four

Anabel Medina Garrigues (ESP) [26] vs Li Na (CHN) [5] Caroline Wozniacki (DEN) [1] vs Monica Niculescu (ROU) [31] Kim Clijsters (BEL) [11] vs Daniela Hantuchova (SVK) [20] The already unpredictable women's draw is only going to get more unprectable with each passing day--and we're not even into the second week! Li, Wozniacki, and Clijsters are all favorites to win today, and to go deep in the tournament. Neither Li nor Wozniacki are the picture of consistency, and Clijsters is playing injured. At least one of these women is going to be upset tonight. Getting my dartboard out to decide who it will be...

Predictions: Li in straights; Niculescu in three; Clijsters in three

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Matches to Watch, Day 4

We're still in the early rounds of the Aussie Open, which means that what looks interesting on paper isn't always the most interesting on the courts. The first three days of the tournament have had a slew of grinders and shockers, not always from the quarters you expect. With that said, here are three matches I've got my eye on today.

Carla Suarez-Navarro (ESP) vs Petra Kvitova (CZE) [2] Per my comment yesterday on the state of the women's game, I'm curious to see whether Kvitova can come through on the hype around her right now. She dusted Vera Dushevina in the first round 6-2, 6-0, but Suarez Navarro could be a different story. She's a past top 25 player and she's made it to the quarters in Melbourne before. I'm less curious about whether or not Kvitova will win--I think she will--but how commanding of a performance will it be?

Prediction: Kvitova in straights.

Milos Raonic (CAN) [23] vs Philipp Petzchner (GER) Raonic had his Australian Open debut last year and noisily made it to the fourth round. This year he returns #25 in the world and a seed. Petzchner meanwhile destoryed his first-round opponent 6-0, 6-0, 6-2. He doesn't have an especially noteworthy history in Slams--this is about the point at which he routinely goes out--but that's a scary scoreline.

Prediction: Raonic in four.

Lleyton Hewitt (AUS) vs Andy Roddick (USA) [15] Battle of the former #1s/former slam champs/former toasts of their nations/future commentators. This will surely be a popcorn match--both players are passionate and competitive and have a lot of fan love. The stakes don't seem quite as high as they would have were this, say, nine years ago, but it'll be entertaining.

Prediction: Roddick in four.

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What is this, the French Open?

Rough day for the American men yesterday. Hard courts are supposed to favor Americans, but yesterday's bloodletting felt more like the clay season. Mardy Fish, the highest-ranked, flamed out spectacularly against Alejandro Falla; Donald Young surpassed my expectations by reaching the second round but then lost in four to a qualifier, Lukas Lacko. Maybe he just wanted to get a head start out of Melbourne since he would've had to face Nadal next had he won. Sam Querry lost to Bernard Tomic (in four sets, as predicted). Only John Isner snuck through yesterday, in a more hotly contested battled against David Nalbandian than I expected. Isner is the only American left on his side fothe draw.

Two more Americans are at play today in the top half of the draw: young Ryan Sweeting, who has the misfortune of taking on David Ferrer; and old reliable, Andy Roddick--no longer the statistically "best" American but still the one you can depend on to get the farthest in a Grand Slam. He's got a tough-ish road ahead: Lleyton Hewitt (thankfully for Roddick someone whose career is further along in its decline), then possibly Milos Raonic, top-of-class in the current generation of up-and-comers. And if he manages through those, Mr. Djokovic awaits.

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My dartboard prediction was right! Peng went down today.

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Oh Mardy

I want to have high hopes for you but in my heart of hearts, I don't. You reached the quarterfinals of the Australian Open in 2007, but otherwise you've routinely bowed out in the 1st, 2nd, or 3rd rounds. I'm sorry you had to go out to Alejandro Falla, previously famous for blowing a two-set lead over Roger Federer at Wimbledon a couple years back. He even tried to blow the lead today, just for you! But you wouldn't let him. Better luck in Paris. (Ha ha, that's a joke - we all know US men don't bother on clay.) Better luck at Wimbledon.

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Australian Open, Day 3: Matches to Watch

Tommy Haas (Ger) vs Rafael Nadal (ESP) [2] Will Haas challenge Nadal? Probably not. But I just feel some sense of loyalty/respect for Haas, who is nearing the end of this career. He was one of those dangerous players who could beat anybody on his best days, even if he wasn't going to ascend to legendary levels. Unfortunately he was hobbled by a serious injury in early 2010 and has struggled ever since. (He's also a naturalized US citizen now; there was talk of him playing under the US flag but that didn't seem to take for some reason.)

Prediction: Nadal in straights.

Sam Querry (USA) vs Bernard Tomic (AUS) By all accounts Tomic played a memorable opener in his upset over Fernando Verdasco. Outside of the top four men, Tomic is one of the most talked about players at the tournament--it helps to be a hometown boy and a little weird and unpredictable. Querry had a crap 2011 but prior to that was a pretty promising player. He's never done terribly well in slams, even in his best years. I haven't seen him play lately so can't say if he's through his slump. When he's hot, he's hot, but I think Tomic has the edge here.

Prediction: Tomic in 4.

John Isner (USA) [16] vs David Nalbandian (ARG) Where do I start with John Isner? On paper he's the best of the young Americans, but in reality he's got a limited game. Take away his serve and you're not left with much. Does any player in professional tennis have a worse return game? Nalbandian's past his years as a major spoiler, but he's conceivably got enough in him to break Isner here and there. If he can break him three times, he wins. If he can't, every set will go to a tiebreak and Isner will win. Eh, the more I think about it, that's probably how it'll go.

Prediction: Isner in straights.

Stanislaw Wawrinka (SUI) [21] vs Marcos Baghdatis (CYP) I'd like to be more excited by this game than I am. Baghdatis, like Hass, is a once-dangerous player whose injuries have kept his career from peaking. He's fared better than Haas in 2011, but not much. Wawrinka meanwhile seems to have plateaued as a player, consistenly making it to the early edge of the second week but rarely getting much further (I say, from memory only). He's a great player but one I've lost enthusiasm for.

Prediction: Wawrinka in four.

Elsewhere... look for Nicolas Almagro to be challenged by Gregor Dimitrov, while the rest of the men's seeds should roll. I don't see any particularly noteworthy women's matches today (maybe Victoria Azarenka vs local Casey Dellacqua, who had a charmed run in Melbourne a couple years back?). That said, I'm happy to start a betting pool for which seed will be upset today. Gonna throw a dart at the board and say Shuai Peng.

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Consistency is the Path to Dominance

Australian Open champion Kim Clijsters lost in the 2nd round of the French Open.

French Open champion Li Na lost in the 2nd round of Wimbledon.

Wimbledon champion Petra Kvitova lost in the 1st round of the US Open

US Open champion Sam Stosur lost in the 1st round of the 2012 Australian Open.

Is there a stat that is more telling of the current state of women's tennis? No consitent champions, and all as likely to win it all as to get bounced by the middle of the first week. And the woman who was #1 in the world for more or less the entire year last year, Caroline Wozniacki, never actually made it to the final of a Grand Slam. (She lost in the semifinals of the AO and USO, made it to the third round at Roland Garros, and the fourth round at Wimbledon.)

All the talk this week seems to indicate that Petra Kvitova might take it. I'll believe it when I see it--and even then it won't mean that much until she backs it up with more wins. Consistency!

There's been a lot of talk about the lack of a dominant player in the women's field. With Henin retired and both Williams sisters reaching the twilight of their careers, no one is rising to fill the void. Most of the players on the tour seem to be at the early stages of their careers and just haven't crystalized yet. 

I realized the other day that this is supposed Maria Sharapova's time. Though it feels like she's been around forever, she's only 24--older and more experienced than Wozniacki, Kvitova, Azarenka, et al., and younger and hungrier than some of the aging stars of the tour. At 24, Sharapova should be peaking. If only her shoulder injury from a few years back hadn't derailed her; I think this era of women's tennis would be quite different if we'd had a healthy Sharapova all along.

That said, did you see her in action in the first round? She crushed. Kvitova? I don't think so. If Sharapova is healthy, this is her tournament to take.

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Murray d. Harrison 4-6, 6-3, 6-4, 6-2

Well, so much for all that. One nail-biting first set and then it was all Andy. I missed most of the match but what I saw of the last set, Murray had it firmly in hand. He faces Edouard Roger-Vasselin, from France, next. Roger-Vasselin is like the twelfth best French player (if that!), so I think Murray's good to the third round, where he'll face either Alex Bogomolov or Michael Llodra. Neither of them should give him trouble either, but a boy can dream.

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New Season, Renewed Effort

This blog sort of petered out around Wimbledon last year. But what is the best thing about the Australian Open if not the chance for fresh starts all around? So, here's an attempt to bring back the tennis writing.

Due to the time differences and the responsibilities of daily life, I haven't caught any live matches just yet, but am looking forward to the Ryan Harrison/Andy Murray match in an hour or so. (It's scheduled to follow the Sharapova/Dulko match, currently at 6-0 5-1, so it should be over in about, say, five minutes.)

Does Harrison have a shot? In a wild, totally unpredictable, maybe-lightning-will-strike sort of way, yes. Harrison is a highly combustible player, so there's rarely any telling whether he will catch fire or merely melt down. We shall see.

In my fantasy world, however, the Oz Open would get so much more interesting if Murray (or any of the Predestined Four) was bounced in a shocker. I like the rivalries but after four slams last year, the Murray/Federer/Nadal/Djokovic semi-final stranglehold does make the preceding ten days or so a little anti-climactic. How much more interesting would it be if Tsonga or Del Potro—or Tomic or Raonic!—snuck in and handled one or more of these guys? Nadal and Federer are both playing injured, so it's quite possible someone out there might find a way to exploit their match-ups.

My favorite thing about the Australian Open is that more or less every year someone announces themselves as a player to watch for the new year. Last year we were spoiled with Djokovic's breakthrough and some inspired play from Raonic, Tomic, and Dogolopov. Who will it be this year? Why not Harrison? (Talk to me again in about four hours.) Who else has a shot this year?

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Wimbledon: Men's Draw Predictions

Men's tennis is in a strange place right now—somehow totally predictable, yet utterly compelling. That's because it's hard to see the top four seeds not making it to the semifinals, barring any shocking upsets. From there though, how do you pick? Will it be last year's champion and world #1, Rafael Nadal? Will it be six-time champion Roger Federer? Will is be 2011's best player, Novak Djokovic? Will it be Britain's version of the Boston Red Sox, Andy Murray? (Even the Red Sox eventually won a championship, after all.)

The answer to one of those questions is most likely yes. The exciting thing is that it's not easy to know which. Plus, there will be plenty of great tennis leading up to. Let's take it quarter by quarter:

Quarter 1 Though I expect Nadal to move all the way to the semis, there are a few potential landmines here. He'll likely face upstart Milos Raonic in the third round, hopefully followed by a match-up with Juan Martin del Potro in round four—a match I've been wanting to see ever since delPo pulled out of Rome a month or two back. In the other section of this draw, last year's finalist Tomas Berdych should theoretically have a direct line to the quarters, though he's not been playing superbly of late and there's no reason to think he'll be a threat in 2011. Maybe, just maybe, Mardy Fish will be poised to have the best Grand Slam of his life here at Wimbledon. He's playing some of the best tennis of his life right now, and he's got a lot of streaky players in his path—Phillip Kohlschrieber, Fernando Verdasco or Radek Stepanek, and of course Berdych. The problem of course is that Fish too is streaky, so this whole section is more or less up in the air. What isn't up in the air: whoever makes it to the quarters will lose, to Nadal.

Semifinalist: Rafael Nadal

Quarter 2 As in the French Open, Andy Murray has been blessed with fairly kind draw. It's not quite as easy a path as Roland Garros was—he'll likely have to face Stan Wawrinka, followed by a quarterfinal against, I suspect, either Andy Roddick or Gael Monfils, but barring injury or meltdown, he should make it to the semis to face Nadal.

But let's talk about Roddick for a second. Like Murray, he's his country's best hope of winning a championship, though the odds are stacked against him more and more with each passing year. The last time I was truly ready to count Roddick out was the year he wound up forcing his way into a final against Roger Federer, which he came this close to winning in five sets. I think Roddick does better when no one is looking. This year no one is considering anyone other than the top four seeds, and if Fish (or John Isner) can keep his shit together he might become the talk of the US men for a week or so. Roddick has a great opportunity to get to the quarters and to upset Murray, who always finds a way to crack under the pressure, especially on his home turf. That said...

Semifinalist: Andy Murray

Quarter 3 The draw I've seen still has a handful of blanks in this quarter, to be filled by various qualifiers. Thus I don't even know David Ferrer will be defeating on his way to the fourth round, where he'll likely meet Jo-Wilifried Tsonga. One section down, John Isner has a nice shot of getting at least as far as the fourth round thanks to his huge serve. Unfortunately his lack of a decent return game will eventually be his undoing, as it always is. If Mikhail Youzhny doesn't do it first—or, for that matter, Nicolas Mahut!—surely Roger Federer will. Fed really does not have many dangerous threats between the first round and the semis.

Semifinalist: Roger Federer

Quarter 4

This is Novak Djokovic's quarter to lose, for sure. Who's going to stop him? Montanes? Troiki? He won't be truly tested until the quarters, and that's assuming Robin Soderling makes it that far. If not, Djokovic should be feeling pretty fresh by the time he gets to a semifinal versus Federer.

Semifinalist: Novak Djokovic

Semifinals: Nadal d. Murray in four sets; Djokovic d. Federer in five sets.

Finals: Djokovic d. Nadal in five sets.

Yes, I'm picking Nole. He suffered a heartbreaking loss at Roland Garros, but that doesn't mean his ability to beat absolutely everyone has been destroyed. So long as his confidence hasn't been shaken too much, I think he's going to reignite his fires. He doesn't have the history at Wimbledon that Nadal and Federer do, but sooner or later someone's going to break the duopoly. Djokovic is the one to do it.

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But speaking of punches, Kuzy (Svetlana Kuznetsova) and I have been trading sucker punches when the other isn't ready. It's escalated a little bit because she throws a serious blow, but it's OK because I retaliated with a rib hit. We've agreed that match day should be off limits but when we shook hands for a truce she punched me twice and ran up the stairs. … I see how it is now!

Moulin Rouge, locker-room brouhahas: Life in WTA - USATODAY.com