Wars and Politics of Ice and Fire

A blog dedicated to political, military and historical analysis of A Song of Ice and Fire

[warsofasoiaf]

Two questions, what do you think is going to happen to our production of military hardware now that it is possible they can be taken out with cheap missiles l. And the second will the US as a security guarantor be severely diminished or can we adapt to the drone technology and come out ahead?

I believe you mean OWA drones - missiles are a known quantity. The paradigm is shifting to make defense more asymmetric. That means a counter unmanned aerial system (c-UAS) program is a top priority for the defense industry, one that can handle sophisticated drones developed by great powers and mass that can be handled by any middle power or non-state actor. That will be the defining military question of the next decade and a half or so.

Do I think the US could develop an effective c-UAS program? Yes. The United States does have a robust and effective knowledge base, strong fundamentals in AI engineering, and an entrepreneurial environment that can reward the brilliant. That being said, the corruption of the Trump administration does act as a significantly negative weight against it - I fear that the Executive Branch would weigh in on a c-UAS program that enriched Trump and his family rather than one that developed a cost-effective and elegantly-designed product. I believe the best thing we can do is work with Ukraine, who has already shown effective drone technique, and marry that knowledge with American capital to create an effective c-UAS program that we can utilize for our own armed forces. Bonus points on developing better OWA drones that can defend Taiwan from Chinese aggression.

Thanks for the question, Anon.

SomethingLikeALawyer, Hand of the King

[warsofasoiaf]

Follow up on the Northern knights question. Would it have made sense for the North to have a layer of nobility that is effectively a knight without the religious significance?

I believe that's what masterly houses are - they're landed knights under a new name.

-SLAL

[opinions-about-tiaras]

This is a really interesting question to me because being a knight isn't just being an armored, mounted lance; it confers legal and social privileges even without the land. The only reason Ser Duncan is able to insist on a trial by combat, for example, is because he is a knight and not just some common scum; knights have rights the commoners do not.

There's a lot of philosophy built around that, of course, and people believe it, but the ultimate practical reality of it is "this is a society ruled by the warrior aristocracy, who want being a member of said warrior aristocracy to convey special rights and privileges."

So in the absence of knighthood, the question of "how WOULD the north convey those special rights and privileges to the lower echelons of that class" is interesting.

Masterly Houses manage that for the middle ranks of the warrior aristocracy, people who hold land, but not for the lower ranks. In the south, if you are the household knight of a lord, or even a hedge knight, you still carry the rights and privileges of knighthood with you wherever you go without holding land. How would those privileges be conveyed to the equivalent of a household knight serving, say, House Karstark? You worship the Old Gods. You are not a knight and will never be one. But you have a horse and armor and a sword, and probably want special rights that the peasant scum laboring in the fields don't get. Your heavily armed and armored buddies also probably want that. In the south, you'd be a knight, and that's how you get those rights. What does the north provide for you instead?

Martin seems to sort of punt on this topic whenever it comes up. Rodrik Cassel, for example, isn't just some armed guy on retainer to the Starks; he is SER Rodrik Cassel, an anointed knight, like you'd have in the south.

[warsofasoiaf]

Agreed. I would imagine the North would have had privileges that certain lords maintain as befits their rank, probably stemming from clan chieftains and their sworn companions in mead halls to the more formalized and structured feudal tenancy as the generations went on. They were probably structured into something very similar to southron knighthoods under the Jaehaerysian legal consolidation. But I'd imagine the knighthood name, with its Faith connotations, would not have the same name.

[thesuperiorfoe]

Actually, the North does have knights like the other kingdoms.

Ser Bartimus of White Harbor, for example, is lowly knight in charge of Manderly's jail, but he worships the Old Gods.

[warsofasoiaf]

We're talking more about in earlier eras. How did the Old Gods essentially project status. While lordships and governance of land would have certainly sprouted up, how would warriors, not necessarily the aristocratic elites but warriors that form an essential rung on the social ladder, demonstrate their status. It could be something as simple as wearing livery. There might be formal ritual, blood brother type ceremonies of swearing to service complete with tokens displayed that would convey status.

-SLAL

[warsofasoiaf]

Follow up on the Northern knights question. Would it have made sense for the North to have a layer of nobility that is effectively a knight without the religious significance?

I believe that's what masterly houses are - they're landed knights under a new name.

-SLAL

[opinions-about-tiaras]

This is a really interesting question to me because being a knight isn't just being an armored, mounted lance; it confers legal and social privileges even without the land. The only reason Ser Duncan is able to insist on a trial by combat, for example, is because he is a knight and not just some common scum; knights have rights the commoners do not.

There's a lot of philosophy built around that, of course, and people believe it, but the ultimate practical reality of it is "this is a society ruled by the warrior aristocracy, who want being a member of said warrior aristocracy to convey special rights and privileges."

So in the absence of knighthood, the question of "how WOULD the north convey those special rights and privileges to the lower echelons of that class" is interesting.

Masterly Houses manage that for the middle ranks of the warrior aristocracy, people who hold land, but not for the lower ranks. In the south, if you are the household knight of a lord, or even a hedge knight, you still carry the rights and privileges of knighthood with you wherever you go without holding land. How would those privileges be conveyed to the equivalent of a household knight serving, say, House Karstark? You worship the Old Gods. You are not a knight and will never be one. But you have a horse and armor and a sword, and probably want special rights that the peasant scum laboring in the fields don't get. Your heavily armed and armored buddies also probably want that. In the south, you'd be a knight, and that's how you get those rights. What does the north provide for you instead?

Martin seems to sort of punt on this topic whenever it comes up. Rodrik Cassel, for example, isn't just some armed guy on retainer to the Starks; he is SER Rodrik Cassel, an anointed knight, like you'd have in the south.

[warsofasoiaf]

Agreed. I would imagine the North would have had privileges that certain lords maintain as befits their rank, probably stemming from clan chieftains and their sworn companions in mead halls to the more formalized and structured feudal tenancy as the generations went on. They were probably structured into something very similar to southron knighthoods under the Jaehaerysian legal consolidation. But I'd imagine the knighthood name, with its Faith connotations, would not have the same name.

[warsofasoiaf]

Follow up on the Northern knights question. Would it have made sense for the North to have a layer of nobility that is effectively a knight without the religious significance?

I believe that's what masterly houses are - they're landed knights under a new name.

-SLAL

[warsofasoiaf]

In the UK we are taught that the American War of Independence, while a defeat, wasn't a total defeat as we retained the Carribbean islands against the French and Canada from the Americans. Your thoughts - is this just cope or realistic? Thanks.

A little bit of both, but mostly cope. The Americans never really had the state capacity to force the British out of Canada, so that was never really a threat.

But the French did actually take several islands from the British in the Caribbean theater of the American Revolution, sometimes called the Anglo-French War. The British held onto Jamaica and so were not effectively ousted. The Peace of Paris did grant Tobago - though Tobago was a meager possession, most of the island possessions were returned to the status quo ante. The 1763 Treaty of Paris that effectively *ended* France as a colonial power in the Americas was not reversed as the French would have hoped. The sugar trade would still continue and France would continue to make a profit, and there was some national saving-of-face for the Seven Year's War, but overall, France was still much weaker than they were twenty years prior.

Thanks for the question, Anon.

SomethingLikeALawyer, Hand of the King

[warsofasoiaf]

Any thoughts on Hegseth and his testosterone plans? It does feel weird, but it's pretty much what we have come to expect from this bad joke of a defence secretary.

There are medical issues that can happen with low testorone, notably chronic fatigue and low bone density. A drop in testorone could be an indicator of a potential problem (or it can be simple aging). So there are reasons to screen for this, and if Hegseth's DoD felt that this was an issue of concern, they could simply add it to bloodwork that is mandatory for all servicemembers.

Of course, Hegseth's announcement showed that this isn't the issue he's addressing. He's pandering to the manosphere crowd. But this makes sense because Hegseth isn't a real Secretary of Defense, he's a LARPer. His public presence was a tabless LARPing as an operator and now, he's an influencer LARPing at the most difficult management job in the world.

Thanks for the question, Cynical.

SomethingLikeALawyer, Hand of the King

[warsofasoiaf]

Two related questions : Should the North have developed a formal Old Gods-based (or religious-neutral) version of knighthood, maybe by another name? And do you see Seven worshipers refusing to to acknowledge R'hlorr knights as such ? Either the ones with Stannis or the Brotherhood without Banners ones?

Barrowton has "barrow knights" but honestly, I think that it doesn't work for the Old Gods because the Old Gods are a highly personal, unstructured religion. There's no religious head to invest, no holy treatise to uphold, no codified tenets of faith that would inform "knightly" behavior.

I think particularly pious knights would deign that heretic knights lose their knighthoods, but others would probably be more practical.

Thanks for the questions, Honni.

[warsofasoiaf]

Thoughts on Sam Seder?

From what little I know, he seems to be a big-standard political YouTuber. Or in the words of the late great Bea Arthur, a bullshit artist.

-SLAL

[warsofasoiaf]

What do you make of Zelensky reportedly looking to replace Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov?

Seems like a giant mistake to me. He's made much needed reforms, including the mid range strike campaign and is very popular. From the reports part of it his him reportedly clashing with Syrskyi. I have no idea what Zelensky sticks by Syrskyi so damn much.

I don't think it's a good idea. Fedora is perhaps the most incorruptible man in the Ukrainian government and that is desperately needed to restore faith and integrity in the government after Yermak.

Thanks for the question, Bruin.

SomethingLikeALawyer, Hand of the King

[warsofasoiaf]

Do you think that the trauma and destruction the Dance of the Dragons explains why Aegon III and everyone who came after him refused to remarry, even if there was a shortage of heirs and it would have made sense?

What do you mean? Aegon III had plenty of heirs and Daenera Velaryon lived for most of Aegon's life. Daeron I didn't have one because he was young and planning the conquest of Dorne. Baelor didn't have heirs be ause if his piety and really strong psychosexual hangup, not because of the trauma of the Dance (and neither of Aegon III's sons were alive during the Dance).

Thanks for the question, Anon.

SomethingLikeALawyer, Hand of the King

[cannoli-reader]

Okay, but I think OP is asking about Viserys? He was alive during the Dance, and a witness to the rebuilding and Aegon's trauma, and spent years as the heir presumptive to a celibate king, with his only heir in turn being rather an asshole.

Aegon IV also had a similar shortage of legitimate heirs, but I think that was a blessing not a problem, from his point of view.

[warsofasoiaf]

If that's what OP had meant, they should have said so. But Viserys does know the risk of competing family lines, but Viserys also had an heir who was hale and hearty until he went to fat. It also fits Viserys's pattern of focusing on everything *but* his family that he would simply neglect all of that.

-SLAL

[warsofasoiaf]

Do you think that the trauma and destruction the Dance of the Dragons explains why Aegon III and everyone who came after him refused to remarry, even if there was a shortage of heirs and it would have made sense?

What do you mean? Aegon III had plenty of heirs and Daenera Velaryon lived for most of Aegon's life. Daeron I didn't have one because he was young and planning the conquest of Dorne. Baelor didn't have heirs be ause if his piety and really strong psychosexual hangup, not because of the trauma of the Dance (and neither of Aegon III's sons were alive during the Dance).

Thanks for the question, Anon.

SomethingLikeALawyer, Hand of the King

[warsofasoiaf]

do squires get knighted in asoiaf after they turn 16 and not a squire anymore or do they have to do something valiant like Jaime Lannister did to get knighted by ser srthur? If so, was Daeron 2nd not a squire?

Squires are not necessarily knighted at 16. They are knighted when their dubber believes they're ready. Knighthood is not just for warfare, it is a social status and has plenty of requisite mandates. GRRM even said there are lifelong squires which he considers NCO's; I personally would have preferred he used feudal serjeantry for the role.

Thanks for the question, Anon.

SomethingLikeALawyer, Hand of the King

[warsofasoiaf]

What do you think of the reports of the joint Russia-China weapon development plans?

Doesn't surprise me in the slightest. The West has an advantage in satellite technology so both powers have a vested interest in ASAT. Musk largely uses his influence to fight British culture wars of all thongs, but Starlink is a powerful resource against an autocratic country, so they'd be wise to fear it.

Thanks for the question, Bruin.

SomethingLikeALawyer, Hand of the King

[warsofasoiaf]

Any thoughts on Lindsey Graham, now that his career has come to its' end?

I ultimately think he was a sycophant and a craven, only seeking power and influence no matter what principles he had to shed to get to it. In pursuit of sucking up to Trump, he sold out the Kurds and the Ukrainians both, and helped contribute to making America a weaker, less-respected world power. He claimed it was to bring influence and restraint to the White House; if he had any he would have advanced his Senate bill to sanction Russia. It's clear he was just hoping to be close to power and was willing to endure any humiliation of a man he had already identified was a rotten piece of shit ten years ago.

Thanks for the question, Classicist.

SomethingLikeALawyer, Hand of the King

[warsofasoiaf]

How many Longships do you think the Ironborn have? We know the Ironfleet has like 100 warships. With the information in the books it says 1000 but I'm sure GRRM is using 1000 as a way to say a lot. Because to me 1000 longships is unfeasible.

Having 1000 ships makes no sense from a worldbuilding sense, as I've discussed here. They have 100 Iron Fleet, which have 100 sailors, and a few hundred longships that average around 30 each.

Thanks for the question, Ljem.

SomethingLikeALawyer, Hand of the King

[warsofasoiaf]

Bet you're taking a victory lap over Platner now.

I really should. He was exactly who he presented himself as - a violent, hateful person whose remorse was yet one more lie. We said it constantly, and everytime we were told to sit down and shut up. Well, you got what you wanted. Your little gremlin finally broke under the weight of scandal. Forgive me for not shedding a tear for the lying little assnugget.

But honestly? This is exhausting. There's no achadwnfraude watching people fall over themselves simply to embrace the shittiest assholes on the planet. The conclusion I'm coming to, that is just fucking depressing, is that fundamentally, populists in America these days don't actually want to better the country - they just want to inflict misery on those they see as lesser. They'd burn the house down as long as the flames on the other side were slightly hotter.

It's really sad that this is the only input legitimacy in politics these days are outsiders with massive psychological damage.

Thanks for the question, Anon.

SomethingLikeALawyer, Hand of the King

[bigbadbruin343]

It's really sad that this is the only input legitimacy in politics these days are outsiders with massive psychological damage.

Well, if Maine picks Jackson they actually get a guy that A) has legislative experience, and B) is who Platner pretended to be, namely that he grew up working class and worked his way up and got involved in politics when he saw loggers (he's a 5th generation logger) being poorly treated. He was who I wanted to run in the first place, guy has a good story and legislative experience under his belt.

Forgive me for not shedding a tear for the lying little assnugget.

Yeah, it's hard to be sad for people that backed him after all the shit that came out. I won't deny that when he announced his candidacy I was supporting him (if only because someone finally was willing to jump in and challenge Collins). To my shame I even dismissed the Reddit comments, under the poor rationale that people say stupid stuff on the internet that we can regret, but the moment the Nazi tattoo was revealed I was out. Not only is it horrible to have a Totenkopf tattoo, but to say you didn't know what it was for over a decade? That's just a flat out lie.

[warsofasoiaf]

After seeing his withdrawal statement, all I can say is holy hell the entitlement. This is a man without remorse, who can barely contain his anger at getting caught and despises that he is, for once in his life, not allowed to just skate away from the consequences of his actions.

For all his carping about how "Washington should remain in Washington" and that the party elites shouldn't interfere, he himself was a creation of Katz and Moraff, unaccountable (and unelected) party strategists. They picked Platner because he was a DSA-adjacent politician that didn't look like and sound he just fell out of second-year undergraduate sociology class. He was picked because they believed he would win back working class voters that have fled to the populist right. But as the scandals broke, Platner's support among that demographic plummeted - even before this, he was either neck-and-neck or underwater against Collins in that polling. The only group going for him were progressives, which he was never in danger of losing.

Maybe Katz and Moraff should have done a little bit of basic vetting. They rushed the process because they wanted to ensure that they could get progressive nominations early and secure momentum; they didn't even conduct a candidate interview! Maybe if they had asked a woman who knew him, then the garbage fire of his candidacy would have been apparent at first blush. But no, clearly Moraff and Katz simply had greater intellects than us mere mortals who sympathized with the women that Platner abused.

-SLAL

[warsofasoiaf]

Could Blackpool, seat of House Slate in the North, be located near an inland peat lake? Or do you think GRRM was likely basing it off the real coastal town in England? Or something else?

Unfortunately, we simply don't know enough about Blackpool to say why it's name is what it is; I don't believe we even know where it is in the North. A peat lake is certainly a decent enough guess for worldbuilding purposes.

Thanks for the question, Anon.

SomethingLikeALawyer, Hand of the King