Wars and Politics of Ice and Fire

A blog dedicated to political, military and historical analysis of A Song of Ice and Fire

[warsofasoiaf]

do you have a favourite stand-up comedian?

Carlin remains a king.

-SLAL

[warsofasoiaf]

Is Tywins plan in AGOT and the first half of ACOK extremely risky? He is staying in the Riverlands to pressure Robb Stark, but seems to ignore Renlys (slow) march on Kings Landing, which would very likely topple the Lannister regime entirely. Surely he would have been better placed to move to face Renly (then Stannis) and defend KL earlier than he did? Is there a strategic aspect I'm missing?Thanks a lot!

Tywin's strategy is to eliminate Robb Stark at once, believing him to be a green boy in the field that could easily be bottled up after one defeat. Robb has no reputation yet, but Tywin (and Jaime) critically underestimated the Northern-Riverlands Alliance's capability to do them harm which is a big strategic mistake. Once he had successfully (in his mind) pacified the North, Jaime (or Andros Brax if Jaime lacks the attention span) would settle Riverrun's surrender while the rest of the Lannister force wheels around to defend King's Landing. Certainly risky, but if you are faced with wars against multiple opponents, acting early to eliminate and secure one of your flanks is not incompetent.

While Tywin does let his emotional smallness lead him to strategic disaster, this blunder was more on Jaime. Tywin's big reckless move was his monumentally reckless idea of having Gregor Cleganr act as a deniable bandit in the hopes of an endless series of maybes to trade Eddard for Tyrion.

Now Tyrion is correct when he sits amazed at the Baratheon brothers' feud preventing them from uniting and crushing King's Landing while he is away. Renly's vanity essentially prevented the anti-Lannister forces from coalescing into a single coherent whole. Had Renly not declared, the Northmen-Riverlander forces would have not needed to declare between two kings and could have kept their war aims on avenging Eddard, rescuing his daughters (they don't know Arya is out and about yet), and paying back the Lannisters for burning the Riverlands. Stannis could have confirmed Joffrey's illegitimacy which neatly sidesteps the idea of the Iron Throne attacking the Riverlands as a royal action, and indemnities could have been settled through seizure of Lannister assets.

But Renly had to be king, so we're left with Tywin skating out of his mistakes, until his serial abuse of Tyrion catches up to him in a painfully karmic fashion.

Thanks for the question, Anon

SomethingLikeALawyer, Hand of the King

[warsofasoiaf]

What are your thoughts on Trump’s announcement to fix up the wwii memorial like he is doing to the reflecting pool?

So...another no-bid massively-inflated contract awarded to a Mar-A-Lago buddy? The graft train keeps a rollin' all night long.

[warsofasoiaf]

who’s your favourite comedian?

Mel Brooks is probably my favorite comedian when it comes to making film. Kind of a boring pick given how legendary he is, but he's legendary for a reason. The world will be poorer when we lose him.

-SLAL

[warsofasoiaf]

How concerning is the Russian strike on Romania? Was it an accident and should NATO have taken the opportunity to strike back at Russia for it?

It was probably the result of jamming that sent the drone of course, much the same thing that happened with the Ukrainian drones up in the Baltics.

While I'm all for the Article 5 meme button, the scale of the action to me suggests that what NATO should do is two-fold. One, they should increase their investment into a European c-UAV network with more fighter patrols and jammers (coordinating with Ukraine to ensure they're only jamming unfriendlies) and demand an indemnity and public apology for the people wounded. When Russia predictably refuses, levy firmer sanctions.

Thanks for the question, Cle.

SomethingLikeALawyer, Hand of the King

[warsofasoiaf]

Thoughts on Colbert’s last show?

Didn't watch it. I honestly didn't find Colbert all that funny in that sort of schtick, though he was a laugh riot as Phil Ken Sebbin. John Oliver was far funnier on Community than he was as a host of Last Week Tonight.

-SLAL

[warsofasoiaf]

To follow up on Cuba: is Trump doing a ton to crack the regime, or is he the 'lucky' President who gets to be in office while it collapses?

More the latter. He's putting more pressure on Cuba by drying up its fuel lifeline, but Cuba has been in a state of slow collapse since the fall of the Soviet Union and COVID basically lobbed a bomb onto the island. Since the Revolution, the Cuban economy always depended on cheap oil and grain imports from the Soviet Union and exporting overpriced sugar to the Eastern Bloc. Without them, Cuba was always going to be short on food, clean water, and energy, and as such, a country on life support. Venezuela could keep it afloat with oil, but it was also collapsing due to its own self-inflicted economic ruin.

Thanks for the question, Cle.

SomethingLikeALawyer, Hand of the King

[warsofasoiaf]

As we get closer to the midterms, have your views changed on which side you think might take the majority?

Given Trump's approval rating and his push to monopolize candidates in the GOP, no, I think the Dems are still going to take the House.

The Senate is much harder, and the Dems nominating Platner is certainly not going to win over independents in Maine - and while Tallarico has better odds against serial embezzeler and overall piece of shit Ken Paxton over John Cornyn, he's almost certainly not going to win unless a lot of Republican voters simply stay home on election day.

Thanks for the question, Anon.

SomethingLikeALawyer, Hand of the King

[warsofasoiaf]

Does the Castro regime survive the Trump term?

I give it worse-than-even odds. Between extreme economic dysfunction and constantly hemorrhaging their best and brightest to migration for economic opportunity, and the tepid support of Russia and China, two of the world's most unreliable senior partners, I think Cuba is likely to crack.

Not that I'm going to mourn them. Cuba's economic dysfunction is their fault.

Thanks for the question, Cle.

SomethingLikeALawyer, Hand of the King

[warsofasoiaf]

Have you played Zero Parades: For Dead Spies?

Not yet.

-SLAL

[warsofasoiaf]

What do you think of Trumps 1.8 billion dollar "Anti-Weaponization Fund"?

Perhaps the most brazen act of corruption in a Presidency full to bursting with them.

Thanks for the question, Anon.

SomethingLikeALawyer, Hand of the King

[warsofasoiaf]

"Arryn inspired by Bertrand du Guesclin"

That sounds really interesting. Do you have a link to it?

I never finished it. I had worked on it off-and-on, but I always ended up working on other projects. Once Professor Attewell passed on, I guess it just felt...too late I guess.

The basic premise was that this was a cousin of the ruling Queen Arryn, a talented knight and general who had the fortune of fighting for or against most of the petty kings of Westeros at one point or another. Half Arryn, half Durrendon, he was "the picture of knightly courtesy, yet always under him raged the storm, eager to get out." The Worthless War featured prominently, with his legendary rivalry against Prince Joros Stark. He also dealt with a peasant rebellion in the Dornish Marches, fought as a mercenary under Lady Lanna Lannister against the Greyirons, and founded House Arryn of Gulltown.

It was a lot of fun to sketch out, especially the parts where almost all of his victories were undercut out from under him. Victory without satisfaction.

Thanks for the question, Anon.

SomethingLikeALawyer, Hand of the King

[warsofasoiaf]

I know building a castle is a privilege granted by the king or overlord, and there might be taxes for it, but what about improving an existing castle, by expanding it, or raising the wall or adding another wall or more towers or a moat? What if the Glovers wanted, Lords-of-the-Realm-2-style, to upgrade their motte & bailey to stone & had the money? Would they need permission from the king &/or WF? Is their being masters instead of lords a factor? (OTOH, the Tallhearts have a stone castle so...)

The right to crenellate would cover significant expansions, especially if they were fortified. You might be able to sell minor expansions as part of normal repairs and renovations due to weak soil or weather susceptibility. As always with feudalism, the political is personal. You may be able to sell the need to build a wall higher because the walls were built 200 years ago and trebuchets are better since then - but if you're good with the king, you could probably just receive a license to crenellate instead and not worry about the cut-and-thrust.

Thanks for the question, Anon.

SomethingLikeALawyer, Hand of the King

[warsofasoiaf]

Seeing some of the recent polling for Germany’s next election made me wonder: what are some of the things Germany could’ve done/should be doing to deal with their economic malaise?

Personally, I think Germany needs to loosen up their start-up regulations. In Europe, there's not a whole lot of entrepreneurial growth in the West - many of the top drone-startups are Ukrainian. Germany has the engineering expertise, educated workforce, and creativity to help invest in a new domestically-sourced European drone industry, and they're letting it pass them by.

I'd also say focus less on manufacturing, since labor in Germany is so high, and focus on growing the supply of the service sector. And of course, build more housing to bring down the cost of living.

Thanks for the question, Anon.

SomethingLikeALawyer, Hand of the King

[warsofasoiaf]

There is no way that the clause Trump added in his billion dollar settlement with the IRS which prevents any audits or investigations into the tax returns, his sons, or his companies is legally enforceable, is it?

No, it's not. The AG has the power to terminate an audit, but the position doesn't have the power to immunize the President from an IRS audit. Without an act of Congress (or a presidential pardon), it would be an action that holds no enforcement and could be investigated freely.

[warsofasoiaf]

Did you have any involvement with Attewell's High Spider series? While it's an excellent work, it doesn't read like his voice. Any idea why that is?

No. At best I inspired him to write about it (and in turn, I had a longer write-up about an Arryn inspired by Bertrand du Guesclin), but no, I neither helped him write it nor did I provide any editing.

Thanks for the question, Anon.

SomethingLikeALawyer, Hand of the King

[warsofasoiaf]

hello! I am trying to write a fantasy story set in an adjacent early 1600s level of tech, instead of 1300s as a lot are set; any recommended reading for examples , battles or political shifts recognizing the rise of the “pike and shot” era of pike, Calvary and muskets? Also, followup ,how common was swords in that era? Still available to justifiably use the icon of fantasy, or limited to duels , commanders or skirmishes?

If you're in the early 1600's, you're about 80 years after the development of the tercio and now we're seeing the formations get shallower to bring more firepower to bear on a target. SandRhoman History has a nice primer on the Dutch innovations during the Eighty Years War which roughly correlates to the position you're talking about. Cavalry at this point was doing the caracole where cavalry would line up, fire their wheellock pistols, then peel off to reload while the next rank took their shot.

Swords are in declining usage at this point, but when close combat came into the fore, swords were still used. The bayonet is still about a century or so away from being invented, so in short range past the pike, you're still using weapons like the sword. So your characters will probably know how to use the sword even if they don't use it very often - and sometimes standard-issue swords were of such poor quality that a musketeer might just clock their enemy with the butt-stock of his firearm. If you're a cavalry character, you are definitely having a cavalry saber. And if you're an officer, you have a sword that is not just a weapon, but essentially an ornament of rank - the nobility was still very much in service at this time.

I'd also recommend scoping out @heroineimages who has pictures on the era to help stimulate your imagination.

Thanks for the question, Anon.

SomethingLikeALawyer, Hand of the King