Looking to the future – an ozone hole or an ozone whole?
The Montreal Protocol is often hailed as the world’s most successful environmental treaty. It has earned that status through consistently increasing ambition, by accelerating the pace of the ODS phase-out and expanding in scope to address HFCs.
EIA has a long history with the Montreal Protocol and we want to see its legacy of increasing ambition continue, which is why we’re working to make sure it is further strengthened, to ensure both swift ozone recovery and maximum climate benefits.
Below, we discuss some of the major challenges affecting ozone recovery today and, importantly, what EIA plans to do about them.
EIA’s ambitions – strengthening the Montreal Protocol
• Feedstocks: The term ‘feedstocks’ refers to substances that undergo a chemical transformation during the process of making other chemicals. The production, use and disposal of feedstocks results in harmful emissions, but ODS and HFC production for feedstock use is exempt from Montreal Protocol controls. That’s because it was previously thought that feedstocks only produced insignificant emissions, something a growing body of scientific evidence is proving to be wrong.
Data from the Montreal Protocol’s assessment panels suggest that feedstock emissions totalled about 145 million tonnes of CO2-equivalent in 2019 alone; that’s more than the total annual greenhouse gas emissions of a lot of countries! And since the most widely produced feedstocks are ODS, these emissions are slowing down ozone recovery.
It is therefore imperative that Parties agree measures to reduce industrial emissions from the production and use of feedstocks.
• Banks: The stores of ODS and HFCs contained in existing equipment (fridges, air-conditioning units, etc) are known as ‘banks’. Historically, there has been no obligation under the Protocol for countries to address the substantial emissions being released by banks.
Currently, banks are releasing about 150 million tonnes of CO2-equivalent emissions every year, representing a clear risk to both the climate and the ozone layer. In fact, recent studies have warned that emissions from banks of ozone-destroying CFCs alone could potentially delay Antarctic ozone hole recovery by about six years!
EIA is pushing for a global framework to recover and destroy ODS and HFC banks, which we believe should include a key role for the Montreal Protocol.
• Strengthening MRV+E: Monitoring, reporting, verification and enforcement (MRV+E) are at the core of what has made the Montreal Protocol a success. These are the processes that allow bans to be enforced, illegal trade to be shut down and progress to be tracked.
But with the 2018 revelation that CFC-11 was being illegally produced and used in eastern China (potentially delaying polar ozone recovery by up to three years), the need to strengthen MRV+E processes was thrown into sharp focus.
Fortunately, countries are now discussing how to strengthen the Montreal Protocol, and EIA is continuing to call for a comprehensive review of its MRV+E processes.
EIA’s ambitions – the ‘forgotten’ ODS
• Nitrous oxide (N2O): Nitrous oxide (N2O) is the most significant ODS in the world today. It is also the third most important greenhouse gas, after CO2 and methane. This means that N2O emissions simultaneously undermine both the recovery of the ozone layer, and global efforts to limit warming. Despite this, N2O is not subject to any controls under the Montreal Protocol and it is almost entirely overlooked in countries’ nationally determined contributions (NDCs) under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change’s Paris Agreement.
N2O already contributed 0.1°C to global average warming between 2010-19 and, in terms of ozone depletion, emissions in 2020 alone were equivalent to more than 20 per cent of all CFC emissions in the year they peaked. Left unchecked, N2O emissions could double by 2050, presenting a serious threat to the recovery of the ozone layer.
In the past four decades, anthropogenic (human-caused) N2O emissions have increased by 30 per cent. The largest source of these emissions is agriculture, which accounts for about two-thirds of all human-produced N2O emissions, but other important sources include industry, transport, biomass burning and waste water.
There are a number of options and several potential venues that might be used to tackle N2O emissions, but clearly the Montreal Protocol, as the ozone treaty, will play an important role.