Intellection

Learn it from scratch

[wxgodfrey]

NAIA Dunk Contest - Tyler Inman Other then Lebron, these are some of top dunks you'll find. 

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Playing Moneyball in the NFL

Maximizing talent within a budget is the name of the game. It's about value, plain and simple. 

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Experience Just How Big the Universe is, in One Mind-Blowing Interactive

This is awesome, one of the best of these I've seen. 

[wxgodfrey]

NFL Players Offensive Contribution by Position (a Facebook infostory)

I’ll frame this how it happened. But long story short I was minding my own business on facebook and I stumbled up a post a bunch of my friends were in, essentially arguing as to how terrible Peyton Manning played in the Super Bowl. . .

So somehow I missed this entire conversation, even though it seems that every single person I'd care to talk football with, or listen to their opinion about football, is in it. That said I took the next few minutes and read through the entire 40-50 comments and then was getting ready to respond, and I realized I was missing the key piece of the picture. A number that I always have wanted to have, but couldn’t find, and had always been too lazy to go out and get myself. That number, is the actual effect that a quarterback has in the NFL, and what their contribution percentage to the results of a game, really are. Instead of rewriting it, here is the post that I responded with on Facebook:

I started out with a more directed intro, just like I gave you above, and then . . .

“That said, it sparked me to dive deep into NFL data and come up with a stat that I've been wanting to have for as long as I can remember. SO HERE IT GOES! (It took a ridiculous amount of time, searching, number crunching and analysis, but in the end it was all worth the 3.5 hours (updated later to 4.5 hours) I just put into making my life better. And for your pleasure if you even care . . . here:

So I started with looking at plays per game in the NFL. I took a sample of the entire 2013 season, and your average teams play composition is this. (offense is on the field 42.17% of all plays, defense is obviously then on the field 42.17% of all plays, and special teams is on the field for 15.66% of all plays).

When looking at the offense I then data dove into the average number of players that are on the field at any given time by analyzing net snap counts by offensive position to capture the amount of players that make up a typical NFL average package. Those are (1 QB, 1.09 RBs, 2.54 WRs, .27 FBs, 1.21 TE and 4.94 OL), that is the breakdown of what the modern NFL offense looks like, lol (on average).

Continuing on, and on, and on, I looked at WPA and EPA by player and normalized each of them around the average of starting NFL players by position, using the above breakdown of modern NFL offensive players.

Pause: Strangely enough, I haven't actually finalized these calcs, only compiled and split up the individual pieces, so as I write this I am now actually stepping through the final pieces of this process as I write. The best way to describe how I feel right now . . . is that I'm giddy (stfu), but yeah, there is few feelings like the feeling of triumph and I can now fully see the end of the tunnel.

But continuing on:

So next I combine all of the individual WPA and EPA for average starting player and then calculate a percentage of overall contribution based on those numbers and then average the results of them together (essentially because I couldn't decide which number was better, and the results of them was really close).

So finally some results, and you'll see where I'm going with this:

Individually on average, the most important single player on the offense is . . .  of course the quarterback. Your average quarterback is twice as important as the next most important person. Here are the numbers (just know that they are relative and porportional), QB 3.16, WR 1.65, OLineman 1.13, TE 1.09, RB .71. So this is how valuable a SINGLE player is and as you can see the QB is almost twice as important as any other single player. So we've gotten what we expected. But . . . I'm sure you're asking what I'm getting at, well continuing on:

So from this when then combining this information with the snap count information we previously had we can create a contribution percentage, to what the average position contributes to the offense, and that is where you can really get some interesting take aways. The average QB contributes about 20.7% of the total offense, but that isn't the max for any position. The Offensive linemen contribute 36.8% combined, the WRs combined contribute 27.6% of the total offense, TEs contribute 8.7% and Running backs surprising contribute 6.4% (but there is a caveot with RBs that I'll get back to at the end).

So I told you ALL OF THAT, to tell you this one thing, and it is a number that I always wanted to know and have and share with the world. With offenses being on the field 42.17% of the game, and quarterbacks contributing 20.7% of the total offense, then . . .

OF THE STARTING PLAYERS ON THE FIELD, YOUR AVERAGE QUARTERBACK IN THE NFL CONTRIBUTES 8.73% OF THE TOTAL NET OUTCOME OF A FOOTBALL GAME.

The quarterbacks contribution dwarfs that of any other single player by more then two fold, and for this everyone is correct that quarterback is the most important position on the field. But looking at the big picture of the game, they on average only control 8.7% of the outcome of a football game! It's a team sport people . . .  with a really really big team.”  "

So that was the end of that post. For completeness purposes and full disclosure, those numbers were really fantastic for all players except the RB number is off because half of the data I had had RB/FB combined, so I had to lump them together to get down to the correct full number. From this it is likely that on the individual side the RB is more valuable and the FB is much less valuable. But for the total team contribution data and for the contribution percentage this shouldn't change the totals for any other position in any way (though it will impact my points for any individual player, but it would not change any of them except the RB/FB for the overall contribution part).  All that said, this analysis is one of the longer, more exhausting "for fun" deep dives I've done in awhile, and I'm REALLY glad I did it, because now I have that key number I've always wanted . . . 8.7%! And that is just of the players on the field, doesn't factor in the play calling from the sideline, or the preparation or the management, which would all be necessary to somehow factor in, in order to get a complete picture of what factors on average have the biggest impact on winning and losing football games. 

[wxgodfrey]

Caliendo's Mockumentary

ESPN Video: Frank Caliendo's 30 for 30 mockumentary on how Seahawks CB Richard Sherman used his newfound infamy to make his way to the White House.

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Your Favorite Childhood Pastime Has Been Upgraded For Maximum Awesomeness

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The Future Of Education Was Invented In 1906

Wired has an excellent-yet-frustrating story on what they call "A Radical New Teaching Method" that is transforming education. Of course, as the article itself says, there is nothing "new" about this teaching method: let kids figure things out on their own, and they'll not only learn better, but be more passionate. The [...]

[wxgodfrey]

Verruckt?  I am 99.99% sure, that someone will die on this ride within the very first week. I couldn't stop talking to myself during the video, and I'm decently positive that I'm now traumatized, but I won't know for sure until I wake up tomorrow. Here is the transcript from my first viewing: @ :08 - "Yep, can't wait." @ :11 - "Now who's going to walk up that many stairs? Nope." @ :17 - "VERRUCKT???" @ :28 - "That's too steep, you're just going to fly off it forward . . . AND DIE. Is this a joke?" @ :32 - "Alright let's do this. I'm jacked just to watch." @ :38 - "YEP. I knew it. Fly off of it and then DIE. Nope, never ever ever riding this ride. Ever." @ :44 - "It does look awesome. Very impressive." @ :49 - "Wait, it has a hill? A huge hill?" @ :56 - "That doesn't seem wise. The hill is awesome, yes. But dumb. Definitely the second most likely chance I'll die. Flying off the edge or catching air over the jump . . . nope, not doing it." @ 1:02 - "Wait. what? 3 friends? I'm already out, so, . .meh." @1:12 - "No. . . Nope." @ 1:22 - "Are you going to tell me what Verruckt means?" @ 1:25 - "Guess not. Disappointing" I looked it up and Verruckt (I think), means "crazy or insane". And you'd have to be pretty crazy to get on that death trap. But honestly, despite the fact that I'm interested in remaining alive for awhile, they lost me at 2608 stairs, ha.

[wxgodfrey]

Pro Bowl 2013-14  The new Pro Bowl is approaching and the new format, worried me at first, but now seeing the results, it is far superior to the previous method (at least so far for selection of players). To see a video of the new format and who is selected, click here, for an explanation of it, click here.  Just looking at the players though, here's my thoughts on where we got it WRONG: OFFENSE: Quarterback: Tom Brady, Patriots; Drew Brees, Saints;Peyton Manning, Broncos; Cam Newton, Panthers; Philip Rivers, Chargers; Russell Wilson, Seahawks. Nick Foles belongs over Brady, and easily. Brady is having a terrible season, the worst of his career and doesn't belong in a Pro-Bowl and Foles is truly looking elite in Chip Kelly's system. If ARod wasn't hurt you'd obviously have had to slide him in, probably over them both.  Wide receiver: Antonio Brown, Steelers; Dez Bryant,Cowboys; Josh Gordon, Browns; A.J. Green, Bengals; Andre Johnson, Texans; Calvin Johnson, Lions; Brandon Marshall,Bears; Demaryius Thomas, Broncos. My instincts make me want to screw over Brown possibly, but definitely remove Andre Johnson for either Pierre Garcon, Desean Jackson, or even possibly Alshon Jefferies. And looking at this list, also makes me think they need to increase the number of WRs, from 8 to 10 in the modern NFL. (Eric Decker anyone, he was great as well). Tackle: Branden Albert, Chiefs; Jason Peters, Eagles; Tyron Smith, Cowboys; Joe Staley, 49ers; Joe Thomas, Browns; Trent Williams, Redskins. Guard: Jahri Evans, Saints; Ben Grubbs, Saints; Mike Iupati, 49ers; Logan Mankins, Patriots; Louis Vasquez, Broncos; Marshal Yanda, Ravens. Center: Ryan Kalil, Panthers; Alex Mack, Browns; Mike Pouncey, Dolphins; Max Unger, Seahawks. I just don't watch enough film or pay enough attention to enough NFL linemen to be able to give an true analysis of these. My basic instincts say that the Panthers somehow got screwed on these, but I'm not going to lie to you and pretend I have a good idea.  

Tight end: Jordan Cameron, Browns;Vernon Davis, 49ers; Jimmy Graham,Saints; Julius Thomas, Broncos. This is a spot they got PERFECT. These are the four best TEs in football, hands down. By the way, is Jimmy Graham even a TE anymore, he feels like something more and is amazing out on the edge.  Running back: Jamaal Charles, Chiefs;Matt Forte, Bears; Frank Gore, 49ers;Marshawn Lynch, Seahawks; LeSean McCoy, Eagles; Adrian Peterson,Vikings. I can't help but feeling like Murray got snubbed here, but he had a really great season and i might have removed Gore for Murray, though Gore deserves to be here as well . . . I think they got this right, but it's real real close. 

Fullback: Marcel Reece, Raiders; Mike Tolbert, Panthers. Write it down, seal it and ship it. These guys are the all around best FBs in the NFL. I thought one (or possibly both) of them could get snubbed, but the voters came through for me. Give these guys their recognition! Well done.  DEFENSE: Defensive end: Greg Hardy, Panthers; Cameron Jordan, Saints; Robert Quinn, Rams; Cameron Wake, Dolphins; J.J. Watt, Texans; Mario Williams, Bills. I'd take Houston or Campbell over Wake this year, and I've heard a lot of grumblings about Wilkerson. But they in reality are all close, and big names will always win in a popularity contest unless you can distinguish yourself.  Interior lineman: Gerald McCoy, Buccaneers; Haloti Ngata, Ravens; Dontari Poe, Chiefs; Justin Smith,49ers; Ndamukong Suh, Lions; Kyle Williams, Bills. Again, I just don't actually know here. The majority of what a lot of these guys do, can easily be missed. It's nearly impossible to evaluate the trenches from the arm chair, and I just don't want to take the time lol. The list looks like the who's who, and I don't pause to see that list of guys in there though.  Outside linebacker: John Abraham, Cardinals; Ahmad Brooks, 49ers; Tamba Hali, Chiefs; Justin Houston, Chiefs; Robert Mathis, Colts; Terrell Suggs, Ravens. Lavonte David got absolutely screwed here, the man is a beast and dominated this season. Brooks is awesome, but part of me wants to knock him for being the 4th best LB on his team, which probably isn't fair to him and his amazing skills. Also surprised me Aldon Smith wasn't on here, but he did spend half the season in rehab, haha.  Inside/middle linebacker: NaVorro Bowman, 49ers; Vontaze Burfict,Bengals; Luke Kuechly, Panthers;Patrick Willis, 49ers. This is absolutely perfect, these guys are the top 4 players in the NFL at this position, no question, all season long. (Except for that final drive of the Patriots game, where Kuechly was abused and targeted almost every play in coverage, and then got flustered and just bear hugged Gronk in one of the most talked about plays of the year, that the officials GOT RIGHT. See my post on that here. Cornerback: Brandon Flowers, Chiefs;Brent Grimes, Dolphins; Joe Haden,Browns; Patrick Peterson, Cardinals;Darrelle Revis, Buccaneers; Richard Sherman, Seahawks; Aqib Talib,Patriots; Alterraun Verner, Titans. I'm glad Patrick Peterson got in. DeAngelo Hall should have gotten in as well. Overall, not the typical standouts at CB like most years outside of the Shermanator ("Don't call him that.").  Free safety: Jairus Byrd, Bills; Earl Thomas, Seahawks; Eric Weddle,Chargers. I was going to argue a few different guys. But in going back and looking, I think this is actually pretty good.  Strong safety: Eric Berry, Chiefs; Kam Chancellor, Seahawks; Troy Polamalu, Steelers. They missed out here on Donte HITner from the 49ers or the Giants Rolle. i think either should have gone over Polamalu, I just don't think he deserves it this time, he got a boost for the name and beautiful bouncy hair.  SPECIAL TEAMS: Punter: Brandon Fields, Dolphins; Johnny Hekker, Rams. Who the hell is Johnny Hekker? And how'd he  make this list, it just feels criminal, and I almost want an investigation. Colquitt or a whole handful of guys deserved it more. 

Placekicker: Matt Prater, Broncos; Justin Tucker, Ravens. Matt Prater seperated from the field this year, and now the hands down best Kicker in the world, had an amazing season and "the kick". But I think Bailey or Folk either should have edged out Tucker, but it's close. 

Punt returner: Antonio Brown, Steelers; Dexter McCluster, Chiefs. Hester is still a game changer and avoided. Him over Brown for sure. 

Special teamer: Justin Bethel, Cardinals; Matthew Slater, Patriots. I don't even know what this means. But I'm pretty sure they should have just asked the Seahawks to select their two best and just sent them without question. What the Seahawks did this season on defensive ST, was very very very special. 

[wxgodfrey]

Yes, this is very cool, on multiple levels. I need to step up my "awesome family" skills. 

[wxgodfrey]

Hot Pocket . . . well played.  Minding my own business, trying to watch a Kanye West video (no not Bound 2), and before it came on, even with the option to skip, I watched a 4 minute and 35 second ad for the new Hot Pocket revamp.  I guess, all I can say is, that I'll give the "new" Hot Pockets a shot next time at my local grocer. Well played Hot Pocket . . .  well played. 

[wxgodfrey]

Recruiting by the numbers: Why the sites get the rankings right

Taken as a whole, the numbers actually do work -- as long as you're willing to use all of the numbers.

[wxgodfrey]

Coin Seems pretty sweet. I'm in when they come down off the price a bit. 

(updated 12/12/2013)

Coin may be the best Super Tech item for a thief ever. Grab any persons credit card even for a split second and make a quick duplicate you can use whenever you'd like. And can a Coin copy another Coin? This could almost compound the problem.  Maaaaaybe we should rethink credit card security, with this tech readily available to everyone?

[wxgodfrey]

These commercials are awesome. Kaepernick is definitely, "the man", as they say.  This long version is way better then the quick commercial ones. The best part is the little girl going crazy on the guys shoulders. 

[wxgodfrey]

Google Glass.  Definitely feels like the next level. Eventually I picture this as a contact lens addition, a small throat mic and an earpiece (maybe all surgically eventually, ha). 

[wxgodfrey]

Funny, low speed police chase. 

[wxgodfrey]

Billions of earth like planets

I'd say one of our main goals as a species, should be colonization of other places (rather that be other earths, space stations, terraforming, etc.). This would protect our species from any single catastrophic event, which the human species is currently one cosmic slip away from extinction.