108 Red Stitches

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Bruuuuuuce!

By Nate McGee

Few things are certain in life:  death, taxes, and Jay Bruce trade rumors in the late summer. To a great extent, Bruce’s Reds history will be defined by what player(s) he turns into come 4:00 PM today.  But his career is more than the sum of these pending prospect parts.  With Bruce’s time in Cincinnati all but at an end, so where does he stand in Reds and baseball history? 

Bruce burst onto the scene in May 2008 at the age of 22 and took the baseball world by storm.  No one had ever had quite the first week he did and the promise of “top prospect” seemed to pay immediate dividends.  15 games into his career, he was batting .400, slugging over .600 and seemed to be the second coming of (pick your baseball great).

That sizzle did not last, however, and over the course of the season the steady regularity of Joey Votto eclipsed Bruce’s hot start.  Bruce finished 5th in Rookie of the Year voting with what would become a pretty average Bruce season.[1] 

Over the remainder of his Reds career, it would seem, those first few weeks became the defining characteristic of Jay Bruce.  A player full of endless promise and disappointment; a man who critics and defenders alike seemed to dub forever young.

In the end though, Bruce stayed who we thought he was and that was just fine.  His rookie numbers basically became his career numbers, adjusted for a full season, and he’s been a multi-time All Star, top ten MVP finisher, and at various times the best right fielder in the National League.

Was that good enough though?  Bruce will leave on good terms, with lots of fond memories and some not so fond ones.  In the interest of positivity (with a touch of melancholy, because it’s me) here’s my totally arbitrary ranking of my favorite Bruce memories.  I was in attendance for all of these.

1.     “Clinchmas” - 28 September 2010 - If there’s an obvious candidate for best Bruce moment this might be it.  The home run off of Tim Byrdak to win the NL Central in 2010  ended the 15 year playoff drought and was the culmination of a great Reds season and a portend of the club’s next few years.  It’s also the sort of indelible memory that can cement a legacy and if nothing else, Bruce will be remembered for this.  It also occurred on my birthday.

2.     Bruce v. Kershaw - 8 September 2013 – This one stands out because I was present for it as well.  On a Sunday night we watched the Reds, struggling to battle for the division still at this point, go for the sweep against the Los Angeles Dodgers and Clayton Kershaw. Kershaw was at his Kershawiest this season, en route to his second Cy Young award.  His dominance of left handers is well-renowned as well, but that mattered little this night.  Bruce took Kershaw deep to right field twice in this game and Homer Bailey went toe-to-toe with the best pitcher in the world.  The two homers helped secure the 3-2 Reds win (though it was a Ryan Hanigan walk-off double that provided the difference).

3.     “Walkoff” – 31 May 2008 – Bruce’s penchant for walkoffs came early in his career:  his fifth game to be exact.  His two run homer in the 10th inning off of Manny Acosta was the capstone on that whirlwind first week in the majors.  It also earned him the distinction of homering in the same game as recent Hall of Fame inductee Ken Griffey, Jr.  That’s not a bad way to launch what was the first of the most home runs ever hit at Great American Ballpark.

4.     “Almost” – Bruce v. Sergio Romo – 11 October 2012 – I’m gonna end on a bittersweet note. If there’s a moment that perhaps encapsulates Bruce’s time in Cincinnati best, it’s this.  Bruce came to the plate with one out and the bases loaded, representing the winning run in the bottom of the ninth and the last, best chance to prevent an epic collapse against the San Francisco Giants.  Bruce battled Romo for 12 pitches, staying alive and keeping the sold out crowd in attendance holding their breath.  On the twelfth pitch, he flew out to deep left field, scoring a run, but keeping the deficit just out of reach.  By win probability, it was the third most important at bat of that game and in Reds memory, it was the beginning of the end of the run of success and a continuation of the post season curse in the city.  Though it didn’t end as well as we hoped, it was exhilarating.

 And perhaps that’s what best encapsulates Bruce’s Reds career.  He remains a true talent, a solid baseball player, and someone who represented some of the best recent years of Cincinnati baseball…in all its bittersweetness.

[1] Votto, of course, finished second as he was robbed by Where Are They Now? Candidate Geovany Soto of the Cubs.  Edinson Volquez actually finished fourth as well.  It was a good year for Reds youngsters.

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A Short History of Recent Reds Top Prospect Debuts

By Nate McGee

In what has rapidly become the expected lost season for these Reds, the positive attention has largely turned towards watching some of the young players in the system develop.  Adam Duvall, young in experience if not in years, has proven himself more than a capable left fielder, on pace for the best season at that position since another Adam with the same initials lumbered around that corner of GABP.  Eugenio Suarez has shown some of the pop from last season, but the penchant for Ks as well.  The parade of pitchers has proven at best a mixed bag. Brandon Finnegan seems to have turned a corner recently and John Lamb has shown flashes.  Robert Stephenson’s two cups of coffee also showed promise. 

Many of the top players in the system have yet to make head north from Louisville or Pensacola, however.  This changed with news that Cody Reed, the Reds #2 prospect according to Baseball America, will make his major league debut on Saturday against the Houston Astros.  Expectations for the tall lefty are as high as the last time a Redleg sported rec-specs so beautifully.  What can we realistically expect from Reed this game though?  A look back at some other top prospect debuts in the system can perhaps be telling.

Robert Stephenson – 2016

Baseball America Reds Prospect Ranking[1] - #1

The aforementioned Stephenson made his debut this past April and fell just short of the not-so-telling Quality Start.  He made it through 5.0 innings, allowed three earned runs, and two long balls against the Phillies.  Bryan Price simplified the game plan for him, and a good day from the Reds offense got him a W in his debut.  This seemed like a classic first start; an average outing that showed some promise, but a lot of room for growth.

Tony Cingrani – 2013

BA Reds Prospect Ranking - #3

Cingrani made his first start as a Red on April 18 and he pitched his most Cingrani-est:  5.0 innings with eight strikeouts, three walks, and a solo homer allowed for his only run.  The high K count had visions of a future starting cog dancing in a lot of fans heads and he continued to mow down big leaguers with abandon through the season.  He earned the win in his debut, besting a much more heralded young man in Jose Fernandez.[2]

Mike Leake – 2010

BA Reds Prospect Ranking - #3

Leake arrived in Cincinnati with much fanfare, famously going straight from college at Arizona State to the Major Leagues.  He debuted against the Cubs on April 11 and pitched into the seventh inning.  He scattered four hits and an unbelievable, very un Mike Leake-ish seven walks over 6.2 innings but yielded just one run.  He also went 2-2 at the plate, flashing the prowess with a bat that endeared him to fans (with some even calling for him to move to the left field black hole) in his time here.  He earned a no-decision on this day as the Reds rallied late to win the game.

Edinson Volquez, All-Star 

Edinson Volquez – 2008

BA Reds Prospect Ranking – n/a (the timing Volquez trade eliminated him from prospect lists for both the Reds and Rangers.  He was the Rangers #1 prospect in 2006 and #3 in 2007).

Volquez had already had a few cups of coffee in the big leagues by the time he came to the Reds in the Josh Hamilton deal.  He debuted against the Phillies on April 6 and showcased much of the promise and frustration that would define his time in Cincinnati.  He went 5.1 innings, earning a win and allowing just one run.  He scattered five hits and struck out eight batters on the day.  By all metrics a solid debut for the then 24 year old.  The troubling signs came in the high pitch count, 95 pitches in those 5+ innings.  His control issues never turned him into the ace that this first season portended but he was a cog in helping revamp what had been a terrible pitching staff for most of this decade.

Johnny Cueto – 2008

BA Reds Prospect Ranking - #4

Cueto made his first start in just the third game of the season against the Diamondbacks. That April day he set the gold standard for debuts.  He spun 7.0 solid innings on the mound, walking no one, striking out ten batters, and yielding just one hit.  He was, in fact, perfect through five innings before Justin Upton took him deep to lead off the sixth and gave Cueto his only blemish on the score sheet.  The debut was by far Cueto’s best performance of the season, and his game score[3] of 81 was the highest performance by a Reds starter that year.  While this Cueto did not show up again this season, his performance was more in line with the general expectation of his later years in Cincinnati.

Homer Bailey – 2007

BA Reds Prospect Ranking - #1

No pitching prospect in recent Reds history was as heralded as Homer Bailey.  Bailey walked right into the fire as well, making his debut on a warm June night against Cliff Lee in the midst of the Ohio Cup.  He performed adequately, throwing 5.0 innings with three strikeouts, allowing two runs, and earning the win.  His line was eerily similar to Stephenson’s debut earlier this season, as they both did just enough not to lose and won on the strength of a decent offensive performance by the good guys.

 The Verdict 

So, with some comparables out of the way, what can we expect from Reed?  Price will likely have a short leash as he is wont to do in these situations, a simple game plan, and will work hard to have Reed leave with some positive notes.  If the offense can help him out, that might ease some of the nerves and allow Reed to relax.  He’ll most assuredly show flashes of the stuff that’s earned him top five prospect status in the farm system, especially the high whiff rates he’s amassed across his minor league career.  Though he’s not had issues walking people in AAA, there’s some track record there.  While Reed may hopefully evolve into the next Johnny Cueto on the staff, it would be unrealistic to expect something comparable to Cueto’s debut.  Something in line with Bailey and Stephenson, but maybe another inning or two, seems far more likely.

He’s the first run of reinforcements and another glimpse at the future of the Reds as they work to bring themselves back to respectability in the National League.  He won’t be the savior, the list above suggests that no rookie ever is immediately, but if he can carve a career at or near the standards set by other prospects above, we have a lot to look forward to.

[1] For reference, this refers to where the player ranked on Baseball America’s organizational prospect lists for the season where they made their debut.

[2] Fernandez, by comparison, was making his third career start and lasted just four innings as the Reds offense scored five runs and gave him his first career decision – a loss.

[3] Game Score refers to a formula devised by the incomparable Bill James to evaluate starting pitcher performance in a vacuum.  It operates on a 100 point scale where each pitcher starts with 50 points, gains one point for each out recorded, two points for each inning completed after the fourth, and one point for a strikeout.  You subtract two points for each hit, four points for each earned run, two points for each unearned run, and one point for each walk.  The highest game score ever recorded, 105, was Kerry Wood’s 20 strikeout performance against the Astros in 1998.

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Are Collegiate MLB Draft Prospects Better than High School Ones?

Nearly half of the first-round picks in Thursday's MLB Draft were high schoolers. Are they worth the risk?

Yesterday the Cincinnati Reds selected Tennessee Third Baseman Nick Senzel with the second overall pick in the 2016 MLB Draft. While Senzel is possibly the best all-around hitter in this draft class, the biggest advantage he has going for him is the fact that the Reds drafted him out of college instead of taking a player out of high school.

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The Reds have the No. 2 pick in Thursday’s draft, and if they want the player that could find his way to Great American Ball Park the soonest, it might be Nick Senzel — not that he wanted to think too much about the draft.

Senzel hit .352/.456/.595 for the Volunteers this past season and is considered the most advanced hitter in the 2016 Major League Baseball draft. Last summer, he was the first player since 1995 to win both the Most Valuable Player and the Outstanding Pro Prospect awards in the Cape Cod League, the top amateur wooden bat league in the country.

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Why exactly do baseball bats break? The answer is a lot more complicated that you’d think. 

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15 year ago today, Randy Johnson exploded a bird.

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Honoring Griffey

The summer of 2016 promises to be a long one for the Cincinnati Reds.  There’s not a ton to look forward to, unless you’re a fan of pure baseball, watching young players grow and struggle, and most likely lose.  I cut my teeth on the Reds of the 00s so I’m fully prepared to be excited and disappointed about all of the arms, Jesse Winker’s ability to morph into Joey Votto 2.0, and watching Jose Peraza and Billy Hamilton chase each other around the basepaths.[1]

2016 also doesn’t promise an anniversary of any kind necessarily.  Sure, it’s 40 years since the Big Red Machine completed their back-to-back World Series championships, but we just went through a return of the Great Eight when they unveiled Joe Morgan’s statue.  While it’s always great to see this group of gentlemen come back together, it’s not the kind of thing that will be a huge ballpark draw if the Reds keep relying on it.  The Reds, wisely I think, played their wild card this season by promising a Pete Rose Reds Hall of Fame, statue, and jersey retirement ceremony.  It’s a consolation prize for the Hit King, a sure draw for a nice weekend in Cincinnati, and a bright spot on what management recognizes as a pretty dismal season. 

A Redleg is entering the national Hall of Fame this year, though we (and the rest of the baseball world) might not recognize it as such.[2]  The 2000 acquisition of Ken Griffey Jr. was filled with the promise that baseball and sports fandom is built on.  The Reds were fresh off a surprising season, a near playoff caliber one, with a young core ready to take over the NL Central.  Enter the best player in baseball.

We can rehash all we want Junior’s unfortunate time in his hometown, but the bottom line is ‘The Kid’ was a Hall of Famer before he ever donned a Reds uniform.  So how do you honor one of the greatest players to ever play the game, even if his years on your squad didn’t meet expectations? How does the hometown club make good for its fallen hero?  Well, we retire his number, that’s how.

I’m of the baseball superstitious type that blames Junior’s Reds career almost entirely on Tony Perez’s (somewhat questionable) entry into the Hall of Fame.[3]  Perez goes into the Cooperstown, his number gets retired per Reds tradition, and Junior has to accommodate.  He was doomed from the beginning.

The way to remember the Griffey name then comes with retiring that Reds number. ‘30’ deserves to hang alongside all of those Reds greats because of Junior’s sheer additions to the game writ large.  The Reds retire the number, honor the Griffey name in total (Junior picked the number because it was his dad’s) and present a gesture of goodwill to the unfortunate time Junior spent in Cincinnati.  Invite both Griffeys back for the ceremony and celebrate what they meant to the city.  We remember the good times, the old-timers are appeased, and the Reds innovate[4] in a way unforeseen in baseball history. 

When someone of my generation shows up to the game with his young son, or daughter, we can look to the rash of numbers[5] hanging under the press boxes and luxury seats and recount the glory of all those individuals with a special hat tip to the Griffey legacy in baseball and in Cincinnati.  Junior deserves to have his baseball legacy in Cincinnati talked about for generations, and it’s thanks to his father that he ever desired to come back here in the first place.

Both Griffeys already reside in the Reds Hall of Fame.  The younger is going into Cooperstown this summer in a Mariners hat.  Let’s tip our own Reds cap to both these men and hang ‘30’ forever in the town that first made Griffey a household name. We don’t have to do it in 2016, but let’s hope that it happens and that we don’t need manufactured pomp and circumstance as the main reason.

[1] Assuming one or both of them are ever able to get on base.

[2] And, by the way, he’s doing it with the highest percentage ever from the BBWAA.  The fact that he donned a Reds uniform, even for a day, is nothing to sniff at. 

[3] That might be blasphemy to Reds fans and the Brennamens, but the guy is on the short list of worst players in the Hall of Fame no matter how you view it.

[4] I’m thinking, but not positive, that Pete Rose Jr’s number isn’t also part of the ceremony this summer.  Also, other teams have retired numbers for multiple players, including the Reds actually, but extenuating tragic circumstances or the important fact of Jackie Robinson’s existence usually led to those circumstances.

[5] Hope against hope, Joey Votto’s 19 is hanging there as well.

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Spring Training Excitement - Starting Pitching

The 2016 Reds are going to be bad.  This is a fact that I’ve stated here before and something we should just accept.  Around the league, GMs, writers, and other baseball aficionados may be lamenting the state of the senior circuit, but it’s something that we’re going to have to accept.[1]  So maybe there’s just not that much to look forward to for the Reds.  If we accept the state of badness, however, then we can maybe see 2016 in a different light.

The Reds went into spring training from 2011 to last season with a roster basically set.  The team had to fill out around the edges some, asking who would make the bench and what arms would make up the early bullpen, but that was largely the extent of the excitement.[2]  2016 presents a whole new world of opportunity though.  While most of the moves have already been made, there is a ton of internally shuffling to be decided.  Reds fans will be getting some of our first extended looks at all of these new toys, however, and that can be exciting in its own light.  The fanfare when players burst onto the scene is not unlike the feelings of a new relationship.  Butterflies in the stomach, anxiously awaiting the next call to take the mound or at bat.  We overlook some faults or red flags out of the hope that we can change or learn to cope with them before the inevitable disappointment of a long term commitment.[3]   Here at 108redstitches, we’ll take a look at some of the battles going on across the roster, starting with the rotation.

 Starting Pitching

The Reds have probably penciled in three starters to this point.  You have to figure based on last year’s performance Anthony DeSclafani, Raisel Iglesias, and John Lamb have all earned a long leash as starters.  DeSclafani, it’s worth noting, lead rookie pitchers in WAR last season, thanks in large part to his volume of starts.  He’s also the only one of these three that has the potential to go 200 innings, meaning spot starts, shut downs, or inning limits will have to be applied to Lamb and Iglesias.  Homer Bailey will be back in May or June and assume a roster spot (you don’t spend $100 million dollars one someone who won’t play) when he does come back.  There are lots of other candidates to fill in in those intermediate spots though. 

Brandon Finnegan was another piece in the Johnny Cueto trade and saw some action in September.  His prospect status has gone by the wayside to this point and he spent much of last season as a reliever.  The Reds have been vocal about stretching him out as a starter though and his experience will probably give him an inside track.[4] 

Cody Reed has gone from throw-in to perhaps the best prospect in the Cueto deal last summer and he’s also the one who has yet to sniff the major leagues.  He dazzled at AA last season, striking out 10+ batters per nine innings and spinning a cool 2.17 ERA.  He might be the most major league ready, but the Reds might not be keen on starting his service time clock just yet either. 

Just behind Reed in line is Michael Lorenzen. He made his debut in Cincinnati last year mostly out of necessity and quickly established himself as the second fastest man on the team.  That debut went about as well as one might expect with a falling K/9 rate and 5.40 ERA that largely reflected his true talent.  He also averaged the highest fastball velocity (94.0 MPH)[5] on the staff, however, and ranked third on a team that included the otherworldly Aroldis Chapman.[6]  The coaching staff still likes him and is holding out hope that he’ll come around from that rough debut.  His future might be in the bullpen where that velocity can be used more effectively, but the Reds would lose a pretty valuable pinch runner.

There also exists a couple of 2015 afterthoughts among this group in Keyvius Sampson, Jon Moscot, and Josh Smith.  Sampson was a pleasant surprise in his first handful of starts before getting knocked around in his last few.  His peripheral numbers also probably belie his true talent (a terrible K/BB ratio does not bode well), but there’s potential for catching lightning in a bottle.  Jon Moscot was taken away from us all too soon in a freak injury in just his third major league start.  He had mixed results as well in those three starts, but was pitching quite well when first called up.  We surely would have liked to see more last season, but if his recovery goes well he can be in the running in this wide open race.  Josh Smith is someone who made his major league debut last year, but if you had asked me I would have sworn he’d been with the Reds for 10 years already.  He showed a decent strikeout rate, but walked a ton of people and suffered a little bit of bad luck.  He also doesn’t have the track record of these other top prospects and seems pretty well destined for a new Sam LeCure type role. 

I’ve written almost 1,000 words and not mentioned Robert Stephenson as well.[7]  The would-be Reds top prospect was once hailed as the potential heir apparent and now he can be seen as almost and afterthought in the rotation in the next year.  He made a bit of a step back last year and still shows control issues, but the talent is undeniably there.  No one should be surprised if he starts to put most of it together this spring.

That presents ten, eleven including Bailey, legitimate options for five spots heading into spring training.  There’s a lot of pride and money on the line for any and all of these guys to make the major league roster when camp breaks, so the opportunity for some battles like the Mike Leake/Travis Wood showdown in 2010 seems like a good possibility.  And we haven’t raised the possibility of a return of the prodigal hair in Bronson Arroyo.[8] 

[1] We also have to accept the corollary to this unfortunately that states since the Reds and Brewers are going to be unequivocally bad, the Cubs and Cardinals have that much more opportunity to be good.  Bone chilling stuff.

[2] We’re not counting last year when Jason Marquis filled in one of those SP spots. That was dumb, we’re moving on.

[3] I’m looking mostly at you Jay Bruce.

[4] Also add in the fact that his service time clock has already started, so there’s no necessity in keeping him in the minors.  He might struggle in spring training and still earn a position.

[5] That fastball also happened to be the least valuable pitch among Reds pitchers though.

[6] RIP (Rest in Pinstripes) Cuban Missile.

[7] I also haven’t raised Amir Garrett, who won pitcher of the year in his level in the minor leagues and is fast rising up prospect charts.  He’s unlikely to make the big leagues this year, as are the other recent number one picks in Nick Travieso and Nick Howard.

[8] Oops, I just did!

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Reds Plans Given More Focus with Recent Signing

News broke yesterday of the Reds coming to terms with Cuban prospect Alfredo Rodriguez.  Rodriguez, 21, was the 2014-15 rookie of the year in the Cuban Serie Nacional and Baseball America noted he was “the best defensive shortstop in Cuba.”  This marks the second move of the offseason towards building a major league roster of Billy Hamilton types.  It also hopefully marks another notch in the successful development of Cuban players, following in the footsteps of Aroldis Chapman and Raisel Iglesias.

Prior to actually acquiring him, the Reds reportedly coveted Jose Peraza.  Peraza was initially the key part of the Aroldis Chapman deal and eventually came over in the trade that sent Todd Frazier to the White Sox.  Peraza and Rodriguez are both glove-first, speedy, middle infielders who will hopefully get on base at a better clip than the aforementioned Hamilton and give a sample of what the Reds have focused on in the overhaul of a once championship roster.

The signing opens a couple of questions and resolves one or two more.  The most obvious question is how the Reds will find room for all of these bodies.  After the aborted Brandon Phillips trade, there is simply not room for starting positions on the major league roster for all of these players.  At shortstop, the Reds now have incumbent Zack Cozart, one of 2015′s lone bright spots in Eugenio Suarez, and the incoming Peraza and Rodriguez.  Peraza is seen as Major League ready, but Rodriguez is expected to spend some time in the minors which will clear up some of the logjam.

We shouldn’t be too quick to forget as well that Billy Hamilton came up as a middle infielder before he was moved to center field where his game changing speed has made him a world class defender.  That could be an option with either of these two new signings, or at least may put some pressure on Hamilton if his bat doesn’t begin to make strides in the next season.

The Reds willingness to exceed the international signing limits for Rodriguez (they’ll essentially have to pay double for the $6 million contract offered to him) shows how they are again coveting a player with an exceptional glove and good skills once he gets on base.  He stole 12 bases in 16 attempts last season, ranking him third in the Cuban league.   In a league environment where run scoring has been on a steady decline since 2000 (from 5.14 runs per game that year to 4.28 in 2015), the Reds are banking on pitching, defense, and speed to build the next contender.  They are certainly compiling the players to build that team with the accumulation of arms at the trade deadline and the legs in these recent moves. They’ll certainly be a dangerous team in coming years with these players on the base paths.  The question now shifts to finding ways to make sure they can consistently find one of the 23 ways to make it to first base.

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Reds Receive 4 Players From Yankees For Aroldis Chapman

Cincinnati Reds President of Baseball Operations Walt Jocketty today announced the acquisitions of 3B Eric Jagielo, RHP Rookie Davis, 2B Tony Renda and RHP Caleb Cotham from the New York Yankees in exchange for LHP Aroldis Chapman.

Jagielo, 23, was selected by the Yankees in the first round with the 26th pick overall of the June 2013 first-year player draft. He has been a mid-season All-Star in each of his 3 professional seasons and in both 2013 and 2014 was a Yankees Milb.com Organizational All-Star. Entering this upcoming season, he had been rated by Milb.com the Yankees' sixth-best prospect.

Davis, 22, spent last year at Class A Tampa and Trenton, where in 24 starts and 1 relief appearance he combined to finish 8-7 with a 3.86 ERA while ranking second among all Yankees farmhands with 129 strikeouts in 130.2 innings (132h, 26bb). He was added to New York's 40-man roster in November.

Renda, 24, originally was selected by Washington in the second round of the 2012 draft out of the University of California. He began 2015 rated the Nationals' 12th-best prospect and hitter with the best strike zone discipline but on June 11 was traded to the Yankees in exchange for RHP David Carpenter.

Cotham, 28, in 2015 posted a 2.21 ERA in 35 relief appearances at Trenton and Class AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre and in his Major League debut pitched in 12 games out of the bullpen for the Yankees. Selected out of Vanderbilt University in the fifth round of the June 2009 draft, the 6-foot-3, 215-pound righthander in his minor league career has recorded 312 strikeouts in 367.2 innings. He will be on the Reds' 40-man roster.

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Down Goes Frazier!

by Charlie Schicht

Howard Cosell’s immortal call from the 1973 fight between Joe Frazier and George Foreman resonated in my ears after hearing the news that Todd Frazier had been traded to the Chicago White Sox. 

Although I believed Walt Jocketty when he said he and his front office staff would trade anyone on the roster, this move really brought that home. But there’s no use in crying about the loss of Frazier. What’s done is done. Now we need to keep an eye on the new prospects that are coming in and hope that they perform nearly as well both on and off the field as Frazier did with his time as a Red.

Jose Peraza - 2B/SS

The 21-year-old Venezuelan had been the Braves’ second baseman of the future until a deadline deal sent him to Los Angeles, where the Dodgers have been stockpiling prospects.

The Reds’ Walt Jocketty said he believes Peraza can be a shortstop or a second baseman. Peraza was switched from shortstop to second base because the Braves had Andrelton Simmons locked up at short long-term (and he has since been traded).

Peraza made his big-league debut in August after hitting .293/.316/.378 with 33 stolen bases between the Braves’ Triple-A team in Gwinnett County, Ga., and the Dodgers’ Oklahoma City Triple-A team.

Peraza has hit .281 or better in all of his minor-league stops and stolen as many as 64 bases in a season. He doesn’t walk much (17 walks in 521 plate appearances last season), but isn’t a big strikeout risk either (45 strikeouts).

Before the 2015 season, Peraza was rated as the No. 38 prospect in baseball by MLB.com and the No. 54 prospect by Baseball America. Baseball America’s J.J. Cooper, who ranks the Reds' Top 30 prospects for the magazine and its annual prospect book, says Peraza would be anywhere from the Reds’ No. 1 to No. 3 prospect if he were re-ranking the system.

Baseball America’s J.J. Cooper on Peraza: “He’s a very close to big-league ready 2B/SS who hits for average, steals a lot of bases and should provide solid defense. Because of the two teams he’s been on, he’s started to get pegged as 'not a shortstop,' but he moved because he was on the same team with Andrelton Simmons. Scouts I have talked to think he can play shortstop but he won’t be a plus there. At second base, he should be an above-average defender, although you will find the occasional scout who thinks his actions are better suited for the outfield.”

Scott Schebler - OF

A left-handed outfielder, the 25-year-old Schebler immediately contends for the Reds’ left field spot.

Like Peraza, Schebler made his big-league debut for the Dodgers this season, playing 19 games and hitting three home runs in 40 plate appearances. At Triple-A Oklahoma City, he hit .241/.322/.410 with 13 home runs and 50 RBI. He hit 28 home runs in Double-A in 2014 and 27 in high Class A in 2013.

Last year at Triple-A and in the majors, Schebler was much better against right-handed pitching, hitting .244/.341/.458 with 14 of his 16 homers, while hitting .238/.282/.338 against left-handers.

The Reds also have right-handed hitting Adam Duvall to play left field.

Cooper said Schebler would be somewhere between the Reds’ No. 10 through 15 prospect if he was re-ranking the team’s system.

Cooper on Schebler: “It wouldn’t shock me if he is the Reds’ everyday LF in 2016. Ideally, he’s a second-division regular in a corner OF spot who is more of a 300-400 at-bat guy on a contender. He has always hit right-handers well, so that’s his role.”

Brandon Dixon -  IF/OF

The Dodgers took the 23-year-old Dixon in the third round of the 2013 draft out of Arizona, where he was a teammate of Reds minor-leaguer Seth Mejias-Brean.

Dixon has played second base, third base and all three outfield positions in the minors. He hit .295/.318/.508 with three home runs in the recently completed Arizona Fall League, and hit .263/.303/.443 with 19 home runs between high Class A and Double-A this season.

Cooper on Dixon: “Dixon is a lottery ticket at best. I don’t think he would crack the (Reds’) Top 30 right now. He has some raw power, but his hit tool hasn’t come along enough to get to it.”

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Losing In December

The beloved Redlegs have by all accounts been among the biggest losers at these now wrapped up[1] December winter meetings.  After rumors of unloading Aroldis Chapman to the Los Angeles Dodgers emerged, Twitter and other social media sites trashed the unofficial deal.  Of course we told you to lower your expectations weeks ago, but now the reports of domestic violence and discharging a firearm have put even that deal on hold.[2] 

In addition, reports came out that the asking price for other goods in the Reds used parts sale have been too high.  Todd Frazier’s value peaked in July 2015 and in what was a terrible year it likely could have been a PR disaster to trade him, even if it made baseball sense.  Jay Bruce had a bounceback year that wasn’t last summer and Brandon Phillips holds the majority of the cards in any potential deal.  So in a year of uncertainty, we’re stuck to this point rolling out much of that disaster of 2015.

So the Reds lost December.  What does that mean?  For starters, we have to go with the realistic assumption that the Reds are not going to be very good in the 2016 season.  When we take this into account, the news isn’t all that bad.  At least it’s far from the “turmoil” pronounced in some media outlets.  We have to accept the fact that we can’t go back and make a Chapman and Frazier deal in the middle of last season, so let’s not play sour grapes there.  When you’re playing with house money and little to look forward to next summer, you really have nothing but time. 

Jay Bruce’s value is probably not going anywhere.  If he has a hot April or May, and he’s been known to pull off an unbelievable month or two, then maybe you get an additional prospect or two.  If he comes out like the Jay of the past two seasons, then at worst you still have a cost-controlled power bat who will likely fetch a similar amount as to what teams are asking now.  The same is relatively true for Todd Frazier.  I have a suspicion the asking price remains “so high” right now because it will come down to reasonable levels by July.  Why sell now if you can expect similar returns in a few months?

Chapman is a different story.  If we go worst case scenario here, he plays out the string in 2016 and takes his fastball somewhere else the next season and the Reds are rewarded with at worst a compensation pick in the following draft’s first round.  The biggest issue might simply be being on the hook for an increased salary next season, but recent events may have helped the Reds in that regard.

When you win December you’re not destined to win in October.  In 2014 everyone raved about the Padres. In 2013 the White Sox made all the big splashes.  In 2012 the Angels made the big move signing Josh Hamilton.  In 2011, the Miami Marlins bought virtually a whole new team only to sell it off a few months later to the Blue Jays.  I don’t see World Series banners hanging in any of those stadiums as a result.

The Reds left the winter meetings getting little accomplished, made all the more surprising because this is where Walt Jocketty often thrives.[3]  The Chapman issue hurts for reasons beyond baseball.  We should at least take comfort in the fact that we weren’t going to win in 2016 anyhow.  Losing in December has not made those prospects any worse.

[1] Christmas pun!

[2] My clever trade embargo line seems even more appropriate now.

[3] Among December acquisitions in the last few years:  Anthony DeSclafani, Eugenio Suarez, Shin Soo Choo, and Mat Latos.

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Chapman Trade Embargo

By Nate McGee

Jeff Sullivan has an important piece up over at fangraphs about what the Reds should expect in the now inevitable Aroldis Chapman trade.  He uses lots of figures and some lists about “prospect values” to make the case that at best, Reds executives should expect a top 50 prospect and maybe a throw in.  This is far from the cash cow that Jocketty and new GM Dick Williams are likely banking on and far, far from the expectations I expect a typical Reds fan might have.

I hope I’m wrong about this and that there’s some dumb or overeager GM ready to sell the farm for the Cuban Missile.  But I suspect I’m not for the reasons Sullivan points out and others.  So, with that, a couple of things to keep in mind though as we move towards seeing Aroldis Chapman’s mighty fastball in a new uniform next season.

1.     Closers aren’t really all that valuable in pure baseball terms.  Smart teams (i.e. playoff teams most likely to be involved in a Chapman trade) know this.  Reds beat writers have been pointing this out for years now, but the real on the field difference between Chapman and the much beleaguered Francisco Cordero is negligible at best.  Sure there WAR numbers are different (no one racks up Ks like Chapman and this is a major contributor to pitcher WAR), but in terms of getting the job done and closing out games the two are very similar.  For his Reds career, Coco had an 86% save rate while Chapman’s was slightly higher at 89%.  A team might find more value if they use Chapman differently, for multiple innings or in high leverage situations.  To this point though, few managers have been that outside of the box with the big, back of the bullpen arms.

2.     Overpaying for closers is a waste of money.  For an example, see the aforementioned Coco Cordero deal that was the highlight of those free agent pitching signings during the dreadful decade of the aughts.[1]  Smart teams don’t do that anymore.  Billy Beane figured this out years ago ditching big name closers like Huston Street and Andrew Miller for prospects or immediate help at other positions.  Factor in that Chapman only has one year of team control left and will pitch less than 80 innings, Reds fans should really begin to temper expectations.

3.     The Reds aren’t going to be very good, with or without Chapman.  Closers are luxuries (see above).  If you’re team is going to struggle to win 80 games anyways, why bother with making sure you have the best closer in baseball to nail down a half dozen or so of those wins where a guy like Chapman might actually matter.

4.     This is the most important point.  Chapman is in many ways worth less to every other team in baseball.  This is true of any great player who creates awesome memories for the hometown fans.  It was true of Barry Larkin and his final contract.  It was true of Derek Jeter in New York.  It’s true of Todd Frazier now as well.  I was there the night Chapman made his MLB debut against the Milwaukee Brewers.  There was an electricity in the air when he came out to the mound and that feeling never subsided during the rest of his Reds career.  Every time he pitched you knew that you were going to see something amazing.[2]  Here’s the thing though:  other teams and GMs don’t care about any of that.  He can be a baseball sideshow, but what teams are trading for is his utility.  It’s akin to finally selling your first car.  No one cares that you learned to drive in that 1991 Toyota Corolla, or how you lost your virginity in it on an awkward night after prom, or the ingenuity of the duct taped upholstery that keeps the ceiling fabric from falling in your face.  In the end it’s just a used car. 

We’ve likely seen the last of Chapman in a Reds uniform.  We’ll probably see a prospect or two make their way to the big leagues in his place and like all prospects they may or may not pan out.  We’ll criticize or laud the trade when it happens, and overreact, and complain about whoever assumes the ninth inning role in 2016.  We’ll bemoan the loss of possibly the greatest pitching weapon in baseball and the untold amount of free pizza we’ll miss out on.  We’ll do all of that because that’s what baseball fans are supposed to do.  But we also need to remember to be rational and temper expectations.  Chapman’s just a used car, with a blue book value that’s far less than the accumulation of memories we’ve made with him.

[1] Well, maybe Eric Milton was the highlight of those years.  Geez, the Reds had dreadful pitching in that decade.

[2] Sometimes that included the possibility of him throwing one into the backstop a la Nuke LaLoosh or Rick ‘Wild Thing’ Vaughn.

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1st Annual Ex-Cardinal/Future Red Free Agent Power Rankings

By Nate McGee

With the end of the World Series it’s time for teams to set their 40 man rosters moving into 2016.  We heard the list of cuts in Redsland, no real surprises, and other teams have now made their moves.  MLB recently published its list of 2016 free agents, so if you’re someone holding out hope for the Reds to make a splash this is the place to start.

It’s somewhat of a fall/winter tradition for Walt Jocketty to go bargain bin shopping for free agent.  If at any point in time they wore Cardinal-red then it’s even more likely that they’ll get a long look from Uncle Walt.  Here’s an early take on the likelihood of which former Card will be upgrading to Reds-red.

No Chance in Hell

Jason Heyward – Depending on how much you value pitching vs. hitting, Heyward is 1a or 1b  (alongside David Price) on the overall free agent list.  The Royals just proved, again, the value of players like Heyward who have solid offensive stats and excel at defense and on the bases.  Heyward, though he seems like he’s been around forever, is just 26.  He’s likely to command $150 million on the open market and the Cards have expressed interest in bringing him back.  As good as he’d look patrolling the outfield at GABP, there’s no chance of this happening. 

John Lackey – Fresh off another solid season, Lackey will command a pretty penny on the open market as well.  Furthermore, he doesn’t fit the need of the current squad.

God I Hope Not 

David Freese – The Cards made a shrewd move unloading him after 2011, despite his playoff heroics.  They knew it was unsustainable and he never really caught fire in Los Angeles.  3B  is locked down in Cincinnati, unless the Reds go full rebuild and unload Todd Frazier for a package of prospects.  Even then, this signing doesn’t fit the mold of typical Jocketty moves. 

An Adam Dunn Redux?

Mark Reynolds – The Cards saw him as part of a platoon at 1B with lefty Matt Adams.  Not the worst idea in the world.  Until you realize that he is terrible and a poor man’s right handed Adam Dunn.  Reds have seen enough of that style of baseball as Jay Bruce transitions into his own version of that player, but at least Bruce can still play defense. 

Been There, Done That

These guys had their turn in Cincinnati and there should be no desire to bring them back.

Matt Belisle

Kyle Lohse

Jonathan Broxton

Let Someone Else Overpay for Bullpen Arms

These guys all fit the same mold of veteran arms who will find the job in someone’s pen.  The Reds have approximately 1,682,479 minor league pitchers who would be cheaper and just as effective.  The Reds may bargain shop, but it shouldn’t be for bullpen arms.

Jason Motte

Edward Mujica

Randy Choate

Carlos Villanueva

If the Price is Right?

Colby Rasmus – The irascible outfielder who reportedly fell out with Tony LaRussa as a young buck has yet to stick anywhere.  He still has power, averaging over 20 homers the past four years, and can play all over the outfield. He fits the traditional mold since he was drafted by Jocketty while he was with the Cards in 2005. He’s just 29 and will likely command some money on the open market but won’t be breaking anyone’s bank.  Still, he’ll probably be too pricey for the Reds but Jocketty will definitely be sniffing around.

Your Future Red

Pete Kozma – Here is the prototype Jocketty pickup.  Drafted by Jocketty?  Check.  Light hitting middle infielder?  Check.  Disappointing end to time in St. Louis?  Check. Can he play backup shortstop?  Check.  Worse than everyone else on the roster?  Check. 

With the rumors about trying out Eugenio Suarez in left field and the release of Kris Negron, the utility infielder spot in Cincinnati is wide open.  Kozma fits the build of past moves perfectly.  Expect him to get a two-year, guaranteed major league contract, lots of spring training stories about the former first round pick turning his career around in his new digs, and a totally forgettable Reds career. 

Welcome Pete Kozma to the Cincinnati Reds!

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Johnny Cueto Owned the Mets Tonight

Johnny Cueto pitched a complete game while holding the Mets to 2 hits, 1 run, 1 earned while walking 3 and striking out 4. Well done sir.

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Watch Iaido [1] Master Isao Machii slice a baseball in half that’s being thrown at 130 mph standing only 30 feet away. Crazy.

Iaido is associated with the smooth, controlled movements of drawing the sword from its scabbard or saya, striking or cutting an opponent, removing blood from the blade, and then replacing the sword in the scabbard.

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Johnny Cueto's dominance puts Royals back in ALCS

Johnny Cueto crafted a virtuoso performance on the mound for the Kansas City Royals as they defeated in the Houston Astros 7-2 to advance to the ALCS.