Omens, Oracles, and Prophecies: A History of Divination
I’ve recently taken a course through EdX on divination. It is called “Omes, Oracles, and Prophecies,” for anyone interested. I thought I’d share my notes.
This is the Framework for Predictive Systems. It helps us classify and understand similarities and differences amongst predictive methods across time and cultures.
#Random
Inputs stem from naturally-occurring random processes
No systemic predictability
No human beings
“Spontaneous”
Must wait for unscheduled events before making a prediction
One can always debate just how “random” a system really is.
#Randomized
Inputs are results of processes that a human initiates for the purpose of producing a random outcome
Fraud or bias outcomes may occur if input devices do not actually produce random outcomes
Dice-like systems, bones, and “ifa” (involved small objects being moved around on a shaking tray
#Human
Inputs that come directly from the diviner or inputs that come from a source not discernible by anyone besides the diviner
Can be conceptualized as the diviner being a sort of “spokesperson” of the divine
#Non-Random
Inputs come from observations of any process thought to be repeating, predictable, or in some way knowable in a consistent fashion
One must be very careful to distinguish non-random inputs from an end-to-end “deterministic” predictive system
A fully deterministic predictive system is exemplified by the modern understanding of the theory of gravity
I.e. astrology relies on deterministic inputs (positions of planets) to make non-deterministic predictions based on humans’ reading of mystical portents
Predictive System
The box in the diagram labeled this can be thought of as the core instruction set (or algorithm) for making predictions using a particular system.
I.e. “If you observe A, predict B”
Almost no predictive system is this simple, and many rely heavily on the expertise and interpretive skills of the diviner
In more “scientific” predictive systems, we can clearly understand how observed inputs come together to form a predictive system.
I.e. F=ma is a predictive system: if we can observe mass and acceleration, then we can predict what force is
Unlike F=ma, other divination systems are sometimes a bit unknowable at this stage–someone observing from the outside looking in cannot always know how exactly the predictive system works
Sometimes, this is because it has a high level of complexity that requires years of training to understand
Observe
The first step to making and analyzing a prediction
The input that comes from the prediction system and is fed into the algorithm
In ancient prediction systems, this varied from the flight of birds to how a bone cracks, while in modern prediction systems, this varied from the observation of a planet’s location to the results of a survey asking someone who they intend to vote for in an upcoming election
Make Prediction
Once the observed inputs are processed through the predictive system, the practitioner will make a prediction
The definitiveness and clarity of the prediction varies from system to system
In the case of F=ma, there is no “wiggle room” in the prediction
In other cases, systems incorporate ambiguity, intentional or otherwise
Evaluate Accuracy
Evaluating the accuracy of the prediction
Was the prediction correct or not?
Often there can be a deeper level of complexity since there can be confusion when the prediction was accurate, but the process was not based on accurate facts
Make Changes
More of a recursive step than an ultimate goal–an idealized prediction system is never finalized, but is constantly making changes based on any observations that show imprecision in the prediction
Systems may also change and evolve without evaluating the accuracy of their predictions
Types of Divination
History of Astrology
History of Aztec Rituals
History of Casting Lots
History of Comets in Divination
History of Egyptian Statues in Divination
History of Haruspicy
History of Ifa
History of Maya Spacetime
History of Oracle Bones
The Oracle of Delphi
History of Roman Augury
History of Tarot
History of Tasseography