Anne-Marie Trades

An active Yahoo!Finance Contributor, Anne-Marie runs her own private accounts and is the CEO of The Trading Book, an education based newsletter for active traders. She employs grey-box trading systems combining the proper use of company performance, price level support and resistance

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Four hour charts for the ES_F shows the press upward underway

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Employment Numbers Ahead- Dec 6, 2019

MARKET COMMENTARY – Another overnight bounce further reduces the sharp fade from early in the week. This further defines clear edges of mark

Happy Friday! Visit today and trade with us

[teded]

In the mid-16th century, Italians were captivated by a type of male singer whose incredible range contained notes previously thought impossible for adult men. However, this gift came at a high price. To prevent their voices from breaking, these singers had been castrated before puberty, halting the hormonal processes that would deepen their voices. Known as castrati, their light, angelic voices were renowned throughout Europe, until the cruel procedure that created them was outlawed in the 1800s.

Yikes!

From the TED-Ed Lesson Why does your voice change as you get older? - Shaylin A. Schundler

Animation by @rewfoe

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The Futures in Five

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                 Looking forward to a great November in Las Vegas!

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THE BIG PICTURE

Bullish formations remain visible but are weakening - pullbacks will still be buying regions until the traders force price back into the support congestion areas.  Upside projections are shown but better under this kind of environment to wait on the price to come to your rather than chase

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A Look at the Nasdaq Minis as Buyers Test Support

Wondering About Nasdaq Strength Progressing?  These Images Tell the Tale

Above we see the passage of the last five days in the $NQ_F, the mini NASDAQ futures - against a backdrop of the month’s volume. Instead of candlesticks, we are looking at the volume associated with price.  

The NQ_F chart here tells me that I am sitting near solid regions of new higher support holding but I have congestion areas above holds steady as resistance even as we press through to higher levels.  Thin volume below still poses a problem that will surely raise its head in the future as a problem but as it sits right now, pullbacks remain buying opportunities for most participants in the market.

So how did I get this information from the chart we see?

We might notice in these mountainous formations, the peaks and valleys present each day.  What they represent is a participation level in terms of volume.  From these images, we are able to say with quite a bit of surety that if I drift into the regions near the higher peaks, I am likely to stay there for a while.  It will chop or grind through those levels on its way to the next ones.

When traders behave this way, they agree that the instrument is near a price at which traders desire to participate - usually in both directions.  

In the spaces where we see the valleys, we are likely to lift (or fade) through these regions quickly when we approach them.  When traders quickly move away from a price it means that it has created a space where the level of participation becomes one-sided (again, either direction is possible), creating directional motion.  These are my favorite places to identify as a trader as they can give me swift movement in participation.

Knowing these two pieces of information can help you see how to both enter and manage your trades a bit better by realizing what the likelihood of behavior might be with other traders.

As always, manage your risk - the is the most important thing you will do as a trader - it will provide the road for longevity, which is the only true measure of success in this business.

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Join me - 

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IROBOT Hits the SwingTrader on Investors Business Daily - 

Because of lower volume, I would like to see the retest of 78.5 or so before entry.  The stock has a lot of promise

Here’s what MarketSmith has to say about this one.  With a relative strength rating at the level near 69, I am willing to wait for a dip before entry

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TIFFANY’S triggered an entry long for us on Jul 2, 2018 -  As we walk through the bullish targets upside, we need to note that this will likely be a messy trade upward and could stall out near the prior highs below 136.  As long as the price action holds our original entry, we should continue upward in this position.

Here’ s what MARKETSMITH has to say about TIF

If we can’t hold our support levels here, traders will have a continued ride downward into deep support before bouncing.  The chart below illustrates the Time Price Opportunity chart from MOTIVE WAVE 

With price acceptance on the edge of our entry, we have a good shot of getting to the peak areas of price showing but it is easy to see that upside pressure that fails here has little to hold it in place.

Low volume regions do tend to fill in over time so watching carefully for support to hold will keep us ahead of the curve

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TIFFANY’S triggered an entry long for us on Jul 2, 2018 -  As we walk through the bullish targets upside, we need to note that this will likely be a messy trade upward and could stall out near the prior highs below 136.  As long as the price action holds our original entry, we should continue upward in this position.

Here’ s what MARKETSMITH has to say about TIF

If we can’t hold our support levels here, traders will have a continued ride downward into deep support before bouncing.  The chart below illustrates the Time Price Opportunity chart from MOTIVE WAVE 

With price acceptance on the edge of our entry, we have a good shot of getting to the peak areas of price showing but it is easy to see that upside pressure that fails here has little to hold it in place.

Low volume regions do tend to fill in over time so watching carefully for support to hold will keep us ahead of the curve

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A look at the market in images of the week  

Traders are congested but failing to keep prices higher so buyers should be very careful buying breakouts and instead, look for the ‘value’ opportunities present at the dips to support.

The NQ_F fared a bit better with a lift over its primary congestion but sellers are still looming for the moment.

I chose a weekly look at the YM_F in order to show why markets are likely shifted to a neutral space for now - we can see that the YM_F is in the middle of heavy congestion and moves in either direction is likely with deep dips holding.

Oil is exploding higher and buyers in the premarket are trying to hold the price above breakout levels but this chart could easily fade.  Buyers will step in a value zones so be patient for the setups as we are likely quite near a tipping point.

In a sharp dropoff testing support seen a year ago, gold traders seem likely to try to consolidate off the key regions near 1247.  This will likely mark an important trading event as the year progresses, especially if we lose this level.  Buyers will need to watch the hold over 1259.

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REVISITING TRADE ENTRIES IN ATHM - A look at AutoHome....

Our image above shares a tidy recap from IBD from their LeaderBoard for this stock and its strength remains solid.  

I posted the chart below suggesting several trade entries that were viable and would like to look at those again with some evidence for why we should actively manage our investments in the current market space.

The setups could all have been placed on a limit order event, but only setup #1 would have executed.

As you can see from the price action, we dipped right into that breakout region near 106 this week before bouncing.  Had we taken profit at 114.9, we would have missed out on the rise into 119.

The question is - what might we need to see in the charts to stay put with a portion of our position still open to participating in the move higher once we were in this trade?

ONE KEY OBSERVATION TO KEEP A PORTION OF THE POSITION ACTIVE

The series of higher lows and higher highs 

Notice how the pattern begins to change after our 114.9 target.

When a pattern begins to change in an upwardly mobile chart like it does at this level near our final target, pay attention to the support levels that hold.  This will let you know where the newest battle in price will likely occur.  It is also a space that will likely be retested.

WHAT TO DO

Identify the nearest new high- this will likely be short-term resistance

Set a strategy to exit the trade at or near this nearest resistance level

This will conclude the short term hold on your trade at solid levels.

RE-ENTERING THE TRADE

We could have re-entered this trade near our original entry and the fact that the chart bounces so nicely near the 106 level tells us that there were still plenty of buyers there.  How well the chart holds 109 is now key.  If we breach 113 again without heading lower, we can attempt a limit order near 110 with a stop near 109.  If we fail 109 again we are likely to dip further to the south.

TAKEAWAYS

Many of us get nervous about making active decisions and will, instead, choose to leave trades on through the ups and downs.  This is a trading style and is not a bad one if your head does not wrap around active decision making well and you are in the trades on the LeaderBoard or have chosen to enter strong stongs on pullbacks only.

If you are a trader who is interested in refining your skills you must be more active in the space, and that means finding rhythms in price that are probabilistically consistent and practicing your skills.  Trades will work or they won’t.  What makes us successful over time is managing how much we are at risk of losing when probability delivers the other side of the trade

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The Leaderboard shows a capture of ATHM - AutoHome, Inc - and its steady rise.  As price breaks out to new highs, we can see that for this chart, in particular, brings a fade to higher support where lower risk entries can be engaged.  

We may have to wait for a time to engage at a low-risk event as buying here at the new highs well above the breakout congestion areas near 100.  We had a gap up today in the breakout.

See the image for a few setups that hold potential- the goal is to assess your risk and move within that space.  Sometimes opportunities need to pass us if we do not like the risk event.  This is what makes a disciplined investor.

It is important to note that a bullish chart can rise into targets without coming back into our support zones.  But to trade with discipline means we do not chase opportunities but wait for them.  This proves itself out time and time again, the most difficult thing for a trader to do.  

When we chase trades or take them outside of high-quality areas for participation, we will expose ourselves to unnecessary risk.

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Generac Looking Poised for Upside $GNRC

Hurricane season officially begins on June 1 and runs through November. If this year is anything like last year, there is likely to be a lot of damage. Prior to the official start of the season this week, named storm Alberto brought nervousness to residents of states typically affected by powerful Atlantic storms.

Beyond the physical damage to homes and businesses, one of the biggest inconveniences of a powerful storm is electrical outages. This brief article will look at a stock with a solid technicals and fundamentals and which appears to have excellent upside potential from here.

READ THE FULL STORY HERE

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Nice article

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Where’s the buy point for the high flyer, AMED? - Amedisys, Inc - a company providing home health and hospice care - has been on the rises - the Leaderboard at Investors Business Daily gave us this view.

Note that this view shows us a drift of volume down as the chart rises in general, suggesting that the appetite for accumulation is slowing.  If the choice is to keep the stock for a shorter cycle, it is better to wait for it to retrace to a proper buy point.

Finding the entry points for performing stocks can be an exercise of patience, but it does need to be a part of the disciplined investor's approach.

I like to set alerts for these types of instruments.

First, consider the timeline you’d like to hold this one - if you think the sector has a long run, you’d potentially want to trade around this position - holding more of it at some times and less than others.

Note the chart above

If you are already long this one, holding 71 becomes quite important, or there is the opportunity for further downside, so trimming size with the decision to add size as price stabilizes below.

If you are not long but would like to be and plan to hold for only a short time, consider an entry near 71 with a stop near 70 with targets near 73.07 and 74.50

Considering a longer hold but with an eye on risk (like me), I’ve got two alerts at 68.49 and 66.2 that will allow me two areas to add to the hold.

You can find all kinds of useful information from the Leaderboard and from MarketSmith at IBD.com 

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COMCAST trade comes into its first target and tests important resistance-----

IBD charts show this chart moving up into its first region of old support that could easily set up a new resistance level.  Here’s the original post suggesting the entry at the pullback with a stop near 30.

If you entered this trade as I did, this region makes an excellent place to take some profit and look for higher lows to add to the trade as well as raising the stop to 30.97