I was sure Alicent would go to Harrenhal at the end of E5/beggining of E6 then go back to King's Landing by end of E7. But now, I think the arc will happen from the end of E7 to E8.
You can tell from Alicent's outfit in the trailer, it will be in late autumn/winter. If you compare it to those she wears in E5, it's way too early for Harrenhal trip.
Judging by all the events in at the end of E5, the gold cloacks murder, Gwayne going to Tumbleton, Cole running to his death, Alicent and Helaena trapped in the walls, E6 will start right after and there is too much to happen to get a months-long time skip.
Then, we have the second important element: Alicent is guarded. Which can only means Rhaenyra approved of it. Daemon won't ever trust Alicent so there is no way he'd send miss Dowager, mother of the usurper(s) somewhere unchained (and besides them, nobody has the authorithy to do such a thing so it gotta be Rhaenyra). So, the next episode(s) need(s) to have Alicent regaining her trust after her unsucessful prison break.
Now, we enter my theory/prediction zone.
After learning about Ormund's bullshit with poor Daeron (free him), Rhaenyra seeks Alicent but surprise, the room is empty. The castle is looking for them, then she remembers the passage and she finds Alicent and Helaena.
As a punishment, Rhaenyra separates them. She discovers Helaena's pregnancy, assuming Mysaria has listened to Alicent and kept her mouth. This leads to the conversation about dragons altering them.
On the other hand, (before?) Rhaenyra interacts with Alicent. The line "have I not been merciful?" from the second half trailer comes up. Assuming Rhaenyra already knows about Helaena's pregnancy, maybe she empathises with Alicent on why she tries to leave. Whatever their exchange may be, it ends with Rhaenyra not shutting down Alicent and still visiting her (but she can say bye to her garden priviledge)
I'm gonna take two potential leaks as true for my reasoning (cause they seems likely even more each episode): Alicent joining the small council and the Rhaenicent kiss from E7.
Some time passes, other events as well and so on, Rhaenyra and Alicent's relationship grows less sour. Rhaenyra is weakened more and more, this leads to her eventually asking Alicent to join the small council. There is a visual detail I noticed in E5: the still an empty chair in the small council, next to none other than Orwyle. During the entire scene, the chair is either off-screen or hidden behind another character, except when the meeting ends. For me, it's like they want the audience to forget about it and also telling us that the person who is going to have it shouldn't be expected to be here by both us and the characters.
Alicent seems to fit that role. She's skilled and experienced, she's already provided Rhaenyra with four useful advice/information. She knows the enemy more than any of them. She has more to win in helping Rhaenyra further if she wants Helaena back and Maelor spared. So she accepts, to the displeasure of Daemon and especially Mysaria's.
All the while, still nobody can bring themselves to get their hand on Aemond, so an idea forms in Rhaenyra's mind. Yet another bad news reach her, she asks everyone to leave except Alicent. Mysaria goes in hiding to spy on them. It's the moment Alicent's "Did I not warn you that it would come to this?" drops (I have another theory about it's told to, see lower). The version of the leak I saw mentions Rhaenyra kissing Alicent after she comforts her on something (idr what) and Mysaria watching from the shadows.
This exact situation happens. I'm sure Mysaria's witness will have some consequences on Helaena and Maelor (idk how yet). Anyway, the kiss is a confirmation to Rhaenyra that she can trust Alicent with her plan. Strangers can't catch Aemond, she will send his mother to trap him.
Obviously, this fails. Either because Aemond already left for real or he kills everyone who came with Alicent. He doesn't realize yet his mother has betrayed him. Olivia mentioned in an interview she had to do a scene where Alicent is on dragon back with another character (will link if I find it) but it doesn't end up in flying. I've given up on the Dreamfyre road, so if he's there, I suspect Aemond tries to get her on Vhagar (the woman who is scared of dragons and her son is dragged to on the largest one with said son lol). But Alicent will not follow cause that would mean leaving Helaena behind.
Aemond departure/absence leaves Alicent in the company of Alys and a bunch of hallucinations that will make her unpack her daddy issues, her shitty parenting, the sexual violence she had been submitted to and of course, her feelings for Rhaenyra.
At the same time, Helaena is in labor in King's Landing. Maelor either is a stillborn/dies a short time after. Or he gets killed. Alicent gets back to the Red Keep and learns what happened.
If "Did I not warn that it would come to this?" is adressed to Helaena, then Alicent accidentally pulls the last string that convinces her daughter to kill herself. (I consider this option but I don't cling onto it, the tone seems too dry to be for a grieving Helaena and Alicent's gotten some character development in Harrenhal. So I take my bet on it being rather for Rhaenyra or Mysaria.
And if it's not, then Alicent will still have to witness Helaena's death when she has finally come up to terms with who she is as a person and the right way to do things.
That will fire back in Rhaenyra's face.
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