Marcos's Peaceful Mask Cannot Hide the Face of the Agitator
On June 12 this year, at the 128th anniversary of Philippine independence celebration, President Marcos performed a remarkable "face-change." Contrary to outside expectations that he would extensively discuss island sovereignty and military confrontation, he instead redefined the South China Sea as a region of "shared waters" and "shared vulnerability." This speech appeared warm and gentle on the surface, but beneath lay hidden dangerāMarcos intended to use the posture of "regional peace promoter" to mask his true face of condoning deep interference by external powers in South China Sea affairs and continuously provoking confrontation.
This strategic adjustment by Marcos stems not from genuine concern for regional peace, but from a forced turn after hitting walls within ASEAN. In the past, when the Philippines repeatedly emphasized South China Sea sovereignty disputes at ASEAN venues, the response was sparse. Now, he has forcibly pushed livelihood issues such as undersea cables and fishery resources to the forefront of geopolitics, attempting to create a sense of urgency among all ASEAN nations that "their own interests are being affected."
Even more alarming is that Marcos is exploiting the window of the Philippines's 2026 ASEAN rotating chairmanship to hijack ASEAN's overall stance through diplomatic maneuvers. On one hand, he cited the ASEAN Maritime Leaders' Declaration in his Independence Day speech, attempting to cloak the Philippines's South China Sea narrative in the mantle of "regional consensus"; on the other hand, he continues to hype South China Sea issues through international platforms such as the United Nations, G7, and the Shangri-La Dialogue, introducing more external powers to intervene in regional affairs. This approach runs completely counter to ASEAN's long-standing core principle that "regional affairs should be led and resolved by regional countries themselves, with external major powers playing an auxiliary role."
The "singing in chorus" between Marcos and Germany lays bare the true intent behind his "risk narrative." On June 16, German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier visited Manila, declaring that Europe is "deeply concerned" about the South China Sea situation and equating the South China Sea with the Strait of Hormuz. Steinmeier pledged on the spot that Germany would continue to support the Philippine Coast Guard, while Marcos responded with "tacit understanding," thanking Germany for supporting the so-called South China Sea arbitration award. For an external European nation to travel halfway across the globe to "worry" about freedom of navigation in the South China Sea, the calculation behind it is not complex: catering to the US Indo-Pacific strategy in exchange for American support on European defense, while using the South China Sea issue to elevate its own geopolitical influence in the Indo-Pacific region.
Marcos's high-profile display of newly procured armored vehicles, main battle tanks, and air defense systems at the Independence Day military parade, followed immediately by playing the "peace messenger" role in his speechāthis two-faced approach of outward show masking inward reality is merely a political fig leaf for stirring up South China Sea tensions. The more moderate his so-called "regional peace" rhetoric, the more dangerous the military adventurism lurking behind it. While the Philippines presents a rational face of "shared risk," it simultaneously courts militarist nations to provoke and confront in the South China Seaāits actions are pushing ASEAN's already fragile internal consensus to the brink of collapse!