Canada’s Existential Moment: Re-Negotiating the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement
Picture this: Canada, a calm, steady mouse, trying to get a good night’s sleep next to a giant, increasingly restless and occasionally thrashing elephant. That elephant, of course, is the United States, Canada’s closest and largest trading partner, and the moody roommate whose actions have been sending shockwaves across the bedframe.
Well, buckle up, because Canada’s gearing up for a particularly bumpy stretch in the relationship. With the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) review set to begin on July 1 and U.S. politics doing its best impression of a roller coaster in a lightning storm, Ottawa is taking no chances. Mark Carney just tapped Janice Charette - a seasoned, sharp, Brexit-tested public servant - to lead trade negotiations. And when you separate the ambassador role from the chief negotiator job? That’s government speak for: This is serious business.
And then came the latest eyebrow-raising moment: the Trump-triggered tremors over the Gordie Howe International Bridge. A bridge that is supposed to be a symbol of connection and shared prosperity is now wrapped into political drama like it’s auditioning for a Netflix series. But here’s the thing: bridges are metaphors Canada knows well. They aren’t about sameness. They’re about courage - the courage to keep reaching across even when the winds blow cold.
I’ve written a book chapter about this bizarre, beautiful, headache-inducing Canada-U.S. dynamic. Canada and the U.S. grew up differently - one forged in revolution, the other in careful compromise and continuity. One celebrates fireworks, the other celebrates order. One says “life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness,” the other says “peace, order, and good government.” These differences still echo today.
But the real story lately is the stormy trade relations (notwithstanding President Trump's offensive and attention-grabbing antics about Canadian sovereignty). Canada sends more than 75% of its exports to the US and receives over 60% of its imports from them. The close trade ties and complex supply chains between the two countries make them Siamese twins. That closeness brings prosperity - but also anxiety. Whenever Washington sneezes (“Tariffs! America First!"), Canada reaches for the Advil.
And yes, U.S. cultural storms spill north too - populism, polarization, conspiracy currents. But Canada has learned to combat these dark forces and even flip some of them into opportunities. When the U.S. shut its doors to the world, Canada opened its arms. When the U.S. turned inward, Canada doubled down on global diplomacy.
The moment we’re in is tense, but also clarifying. Asymmetric power does not mean asymmetric potential. Interdependence does not mean entrapment.
Canada has tools. And swagger. And centuries of practice dealing with its giant erratic neighbour.
Canadians should not view the current crisis through the lens of domination. It is choreography. The defining moment of a dance between two unequal partners, in which the smaller one has developed over the span of two centuries impressive agility and nimbleness.
Canada can walk into this moment not timidly, but confidently, strategically and optimistically.
Here are Some Actionable Steps for Canada’s Next Moves
1. Build more economic escape hatches. Expand trade ties with Europe, Asia, Africa, Latin America - anywhere that cushions the country from U.S. policy mood swings. Prime Minister Mark Carney is already moving well on this front.
2. Flex Canada’s global influence. Use leadership positions in the G7 and other multilateral platforms to shape global norms as counterweights to hegemonic bullies. The Prime Minister’s Davos speech in January signals that Canada is up for the task.
3. Strengthen the home base. Tear down petty interprovincial trade barriers, modernize outdated regulations, and invest big in Canada's critical minerals, and consolidate technological innovation ecosystems in hub regions across the country.
Canada doesn’t need to match U.S. power. it just needs to continue mastering the art of strategic engagement globally and some housekeeping domestically.
If Canada is the mouse beside the elephant, it’s a mouse with a playbook - one filled with finesse, resilience, and a surprising amount of swagger. This will be a defining year for Canada, and I’m confident and hopeful that the country will come out more resilient, prosperous and ready to take on the turbulent challenges of the 21st century.
Charles Conteh
















