The Fódlan Calendar and Fire Emblem: Fortune's Weave - An Analysis
Over the past two days, several comments in the wider Fire Emblem community have taken notice of a part of the recent trailer that showed a specific date: 7/20, 1449. This has led to the consensus that Fortune's Weave will take place after the events of Three Houses, which took place from 1180 to 1186. I have done some extensive research into the lore of Three Houses and, as such, wanted to add to this discussion and give my own interpretation:
The most concrete evidence on this that Three Houses provides us with is in the Shadow Library in Abyss: a document titled "Mysteries of the Calendar, Vol. 2".
This document gives us insight into how the calendar of Fódlan was established. It starts out with the following:
"Much time has passed since the Imperial calendar was adopted. In the prior calendar, the year began with what we now call the Guardian Moon and ended with the Ethereal Moon. Back then, the 12 lunar phases were exclusively referred to as months. They came to be known as moons with our current calendar system."
What this tells us is that even the way months are counted changed with the establishment of the new Imperial calendar, and is consistent with how Lone Moon - the equivalent of March - is described as the end of the year while Great Tree Moon - the equivalent of April - is described as the beginning of the new year in the chapter 1 opening mural. This is then expanded upon in the second paragraph:
"Though the prior names of the months are lost, it is known that Guardian Moon was often shortened to the number one, Pegasus Moon to the number two, and so on until Ethereal Moon, the twelfth and final month. Though inelegant, this was a practical system that apparently served the people of the time well."
What this essentially tells us is that the way months were numbered is more akin to how we do the same with our calendar in the real world, to the point where this combined with how advanced Agarthan technology is has led to the interpretation that Three Houses actually takes place in the distant future.
So, does this already deconfirm that Fortune's Weave uses the Fódlan calendar? After all, it quite clearly uses a number to represent the current month. Not necessarily. Not only is this a rather insignificant detail that might have changed over time or due to the differing culture - it is also *just* a UI element. Three Houses's own calendar UI similarly displays a large number above every month, despite the lore clearly stating that this way of numbering months has been abandoned a long time ago. So both this and Fortune's Weave's system may very well just be a UI quirk, especially given how not including this detail might lead to confusion with regard to the birthday system in Three Houses that might return in Fortune's Weave.
"There is no way of knowing when the old calendar was created. Any attempt to trace its origins leads only to the era of the gods and more unanswered questions. All we know for certain is that the calendar has existed for a nearly incomprehensible length of time."
This basically emphasizes that the people of modern Fódlan don't know much about what came before the War of Heroes. Much of this history has been obscured by the Church of Seiros. At this point, it is important to mention where this document is found: In the Shadow Library of Abyss. This library is specifically stated to contain "banned books" by Linhardt during Cindered Shadows Chapter 2. This is consistent with how during Chapter 4 of the main story, an NPC Monk mentions that "Seteth will [sometimes] dispose of books that are deemed inappropriate for the monastery", and it is heavily implied that volume 1 as well as any potential additional volumes have been lost to time. That tells us that the origins of the calendar are being kept under wraps by the Church of Seiros, which also "forbids any official contact with outside regions" according to Claude in Three Hopes. Now, it is worth noting that this doesn't mean that their actually is no contact, we know for a fact that even outside the wars Fódlan waged against Dagda, Brigid, Duscur, Sreng, and Almyra, there is come contact with Morfis as a document in Three Hopes states that "Its capital, Boramas, is a fine port equal to Enbarr, as well as a bustling hub that trades with lands to the east, including Morfis, Metropolis of Magic." with reference to Aegir territory. Still, I would argue that this is not sufficient to reasonably expect outside cultures to adopt something as significant as an entire calendar system, and this is even more important for Dagda, which is stated to be the subject of various rumours about its geography "due to its extreme distance from Fódlan". This again doesn't seem like a particularly good foundation for a shared calendar.
The remainder of the document emphasizes this:
"To change a civilization's calendar would inevitably cause great confusion and unrest. Why, then, did Emperor Wilhelm—the first lleader of Adrestia—choose to abandon the original calendar in favor of the Imperial calendar? Historians have identified several possible reasons for such a drastic measure.
1. The Influence of the Church of Seiros
The names of the Imperial calendar's moons, and the associated lore behind them, are intimately related to the tenets and saints of the Church of Seiros. It is highly probable that basing the new calendar on the teachings of Seiros was Emperor Wilhelm's attempt to spread those beliefs on a much wider scale and help legitimize the church.
If this is the case, it is further proof that the Adrestian Empire had close ties to the Church of Seiros from the very moment of its inception. Alternatively, it has been posited that the goddess herself wished to change the calendar and voiced this desire through the prophet Seiros. This would mean that Emperor Wilhelm simply implemented the change rather than originating it.
Calendars represent the flow of time, and so creating a new one is akin to claiming dominion over time itself. Shortly after its founding, the Empire used its influence to establish a new calendar and retroactively proclaim its founding year as Year 1. Amid the unification of Fódlan, this move increased Imperial authority and heralded the start of a new era."
This entire section emphasizes how the Fódlan calendar is directly linked to the specific culture and religion of Fódlan. It is based on the teachings of the Church of Seiros - which is explicitly not the religion the people of Dagda follow (the statue at the Pagan Altar in Abyss depicts the Dagdan god of fate, for example). It further starts with the founding of the Adrestian empire as its year 1. This is obviously a very significant event in the history of Fódlan - but it is also significantly less relevant to the cultures outside Fódlan. After all, why would one base an entire calendar on the founding date of a territory they have no contact with outside of attempts to invade it?
So, does this definitively disprove that Fortune's Weave will be set after Three Houses? Absolutely not. For all we know, Dagda may have adopted the Fódlan calendar *after* the events of Three Houses, or they may use a calendar that just so happens to line up with Fódlan's calendar in a way that allows for the game to take place after Three Houses/Hopes. Disproving this theory was never my intention with this analysis - I merely wanted to use the opportunity to talk about a subject I find quite intriguing, and to add to the surrounding discussion.
I hope I didn't draw this out too much, and that it was an interesting read. Thank you for your attention.
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