This Month in U.S. Politics
As June comes to a close, here are some quick observations pertaining to U.S. political landscape and its impact in the upcoming presidential election.
1. What impact will the recent decisions of the Supreme Court (SCOTUS) have on the race for the White House?
On the Arizona immigration law, known as SB1070, it is clear that the battle is not over. The SCOTUS upheld the most controversial part of the law - the so called "show me your papers" provision - pending its application. Latinos voters and many human rights interest groups are not happy with this part of the ruling, but they are happy to see SCOTUS strike down other parts of the law, stressing that immigration law is mostly a federal matter.
At first glance, this seems to be a victory for both sides as conservatives argue that law enforcement officers have the power to arrest illegal aliens. But, politically the ruling helps President Obama and it complicates matter for Governor Romney.
As both campaigns woo Latino voters, this decision will really help the President; he has been trying to make the case that he has been working on behalf of issues important to the Latino community and this reinforces his narrative. Romney will have a more difficult time on this one. He has to be critical of the decision, as many Republicans were upset by the ruling, but find ways of moving forward to get some Latino support. Indeed, to win, he needs close to 40% of the Latino vote.
The Court's decision to uphold the Affordable Healthcare Act, more popularly known as Obamacare, is a huge win for President Obama. It is his administration's signature legislation. The ruling does not mean that President Obama will not face political challenges in the near future. Here are at least two challenges:
Justice Robert's opinion finds that the Act's constitutionality does not rest in the Constitution's Commerce Clause, the Obama administration's main argument, but on the taxing authority of the Congress. Thus, Republicans and the Romney campaign will say that Obama raised taxes during the term and this is something voters will not like to hear.
The Affordable Care Act is still unpopular with Republicans and independent voters. A CBS/NY Times poll a couples of weeks ago found that 8 out of 10 Republicans dislike the law, while only 48% of independents support it. A slim majority (56%) of Democrats favor the law. These are not impressive numbers and the White House knows it. A more recent ABC News/Washington Post poll found similar attitudes. Republicans will try to rally Americans to not only elect Romney but to help them hold on to the majority in the House of Representatives and take the majority in the Senate. If they can win both chambers and the White House they can pass a new law revoking the Affordable Care Act's provisions.
The Obama re-election, nevertheless, team must be relieved. The campaign would have been more difficult had the Court found the Act unconstitutional.
2. Whom do voters prefer?
According to the Realclearpolitics average, which indexes all major public opinion polls, Obama is ahead of Romney by 3%. This of course is within the margin of error, suggesting a very close race. But, here are a couple of observations:
These polls were taken before this week's landmark Supreme Court decisions. I am curious as to whether these rulings will give a boost to Obama or Romney.
Why is Romney not ahead in the polls? Think about it. For the last weeks, the economy has been dominating the news cycle and the headlines were not exactly good for the White House. Romney has been attacking the President on this issue, while it has had some traction - polls have tightened, he does not seem to be connecting with most Americans.
If we break it down by states, Romney has problems his campaign staff need to address quickly. He is tied with Obama in New Hampshire - this is basically his home state and he should be ahead because his economic message should resonate with voters there. He is behind in Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania. Where exactly does Mitt Romney have momentum?
In Massachusetts, Obama is ahead by 16 percentage points. Now we can't expect Romney to win his home state but this should be closer. Can Romney attract enough independent voters? This is the reaction I have when I read the results of this poll.
It is very early in the race for the White House, but here are some thoughts as we close the month of June.