Dow Futures Trader

Daily Dow Futures Actionable Trades

[dowfuturestrader]

Dow Futures, YMM5, Mar 19 Set-up

08:55 am:Futures reversed strongly after FOMC minutes. Yellen removed ‘patience” from the minutes and dropped significance of employment rate to decision on Fed funds rate. USD dropped and markets took off, reversing a 128 point drop at 2pm to a 200 pints rally to the day’s end to 4pm.

These extreme  swings in the Forex markets will have is causing tectonic shifts in the other markets (equities, bonds, and commodities). However, ,the timing of when these effects manifest strongly in the equities markets cannot be determined.

The market bias remains long above 17800. 

12:24pm: FED may be losing control of the markets here as recent FOREX upheavals provide the devastating instability undercurrents.

For instructional purposes only.

[dowfuturestrader]

Dow Futures, YMM5, Mar 18 Set-up

Daily Pivot 17785

08:30am: Not much change in commentary from yesterday. Today FED is expected to remove the "patience" from its interest rate policy statement. If so, markets will expect a rate hike in Jun Fed meeting. This is likely to put pressure on the markets in the intermediate term as the expected rate hike, the first since 2006, will be perceived as a game changer. 

If the above unfolds, USD can strengthen further and put pressure on earnings expectation of American international companies. The markets can decline if earnings are expected to be soft. 

Current market support is on the uptrend line around 17500. Expecting a low volume, two sided trade, till FED announcement.

Futures remain under pressure as yesterday's narrow range, inside day, bar resolves to the downside in the early going. 

For instructional purposes only.

[dowfuturestrader]

Dow Futures Mar 17 Set-up

08:45am: This week will be eventful. Fed is expected to remove the “patience” from its interest rate policy statement. If so, markets will expect a rate hike in Jun Fed meeting. This is likely to put pressure on the markets in the intermediate term as the expected rate hike, the first since 2006, will be perceived as a game changer. If the above unfolds, USD can strengthen further and put pressure on earnings expectation of American international companies. The markets can decline if earnings are expected to be soft. Current market support is on the uptrend line around 17500. Expecting a low volume, two sided trade, till FED announcement.Market remains above IM cloud and thus has bullish bais. Fisher 10 is also turning up and can lead to rally, especially if a divergence develops.For instructional purposes only.

https://www.tradingview.com/e/zsvM4eP2/

[dowfuturestrader]

Dow Futures, Mar 15, Set-up

08:00 am: This week will be eventful. Fed is expected to remove the "patience" from its interest rate policy statement. If so, markets will expect a rate hike in Jun Fed meeting. This is likely to put pressure on the markets in the intermediate term as the expected rate hike, the first since 2006, will be perceived as a game changer.

If the above unfolds, USD can strengthen further and put pressure on earnings expectation of American international companies. The markets can decline if earnings are expected to be soft.

Current market support is on the uptrend line around 17500. Expecting a low volume, two sided trade, till FED announcement. For instructional purposes only.

https://www.tradingview.com/e/zsvM4eP2/

[dowfuturestrader]

Dow Futures, YMH5, Mar 13 Set-up

08:17am: After yesterday’s massive short covering rally, the Dow futures are giving up some gains in the early morning trades. YMH5 is trading at 17836,  30 points lower than yesterday’s close.

USD is again strengthening and may further strengthen if the 8:30 am data release is perceived to further support US economy strength. This will put pressure on the Fed to increase interest rate in Jun, for the first time since 2006, a big game changer for the markets.

Trade Set-up: Short YMH5 below overnight low of 19822 with three contracts, with stops at 19842. If the market moves lower, cover two contracts at 19802. Move S/L to breakeven for this last contract, and use a 20 points trailing stop to close contract.

11:00am: Market making a round trip and wiping out gains from yesterday.

For instructional purposes only.

[dowfuturestrader]

Dow Futures, YMH5, Mar 12 Set-up

YMH5 futures traced a narrow range day on Mar 11. YMH5 is currently in down trend. and controlled by 5 DMA.  In the intermediate term support is at the weekly uptrend  line at  around 17500.

Resistance at Daily Pivot 17667. Further away 5 DMA  17792

Overnight markets were bouncing and the futures are up about 65 points at present.

No current trade set-up.

2:00pm: Market looking for next thrust up.

For instructional purposes only.

[dowfuturestrader]

Dow Futures, YMH5, Mar 11 Set-up

08:36am YMH5 futures traced a range expansion day on Mar 10. YMH5 is being controlled by an outside week bar from last week. . Expecting continued weakness today especially if the 1st hour low is taken out. In the intermediate term support is at the weekly uptrend  line at  around 17500.

Overnight markets were bouncing with low at 17669 and high at 17733.

Will go short below 1st 1/2 hr and first 1 low for a 20 point target per contract.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/E9yFpBLC/

1:40pm: Tightly wound. Feeling heavy. Add to short at 17656. 6:00PM Two shorts taken. Both winners as 20 points targets hit for both. Now flat.

For instructional purposes only.

[dowfuturestrader]

Dow Futures YMH5 Mar 10 Set-up

YMH5 Dow futures traced an inside day on Mar 09. YMH5 is being controlled by an outside week bar last week. . Expecting continued weakness with support coming at the uptrend support line at  around 17500 in the intermediate term.

Overnight markets were weak and at present YM is off about 115 points from yesterdays close  to 17855.

07:54 am:Short below yesterday's low at 17816. Cover at 17786.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/oHH3Q9Wi/

08:30am: The short is now closed at 17786 with a gain of 30 points per contract. 

http://www.investing.com/indices/us-30-futures

For instructional purposes only.

[dowfuturestrader]

Mar 09 Dow YMH5 futures set-up

Set-up for Mar 09: YMH5 futures traced wide range day on Fri, Mar 06. Expecting continued weakness in the early going on the open on Mar 09.

Daily PIvot at 17942 and 5 DMA at 18038 will be the initial resistance on any bounce.

If 1st hr. hi is exceeded shorts should be closed.

For instructional purposes only.

[dowfuturestrader]

Mar 06 Set-up

YMH5 futures traced a low volume, inside day., with a potential for a trend day on Mar 06.

Going long at 18149 or Short at 18069, whichever breaks first. When trade is triggered, targeting 25 points move. S/L will be at 20 points after trigger. Best.. For instructional purpose only.

2:02 pm: As forecast, a trend day being made. 

[dowfuturestrader]

Mar 05 Set-up

Pre Open: Dow futures are up, following European markets lead. Overnight range 18071 to 18120. No high probability set-up visible. Expecting market moving new when Dragi speaks at 8:30 am EST. 

07:20am: Dow futures, YMH5, testing 18120, yesterday's breakdown level.

08:30am: YMH5 strong in the early going. 5 DMA at 18159 and daily pivot at 18191 can provide resistance. No trade set-up yet.

09:30am: going short at 18111, if and when YMH5 trades there. Looking to cover at 18091 or 18031, whichever occurs first after trade triggered. 3 contracts. Trade good till 10:30 am. Best.

09:40am: Target hit at 18091, with 60 points win on 3 contracts. 

11:00am: YMH5 has 1st resistance at 5 dma at 18157. Will short there for 15 points decline to 18142 to cover. Stop loss at 18172 after trade triggered.

[dowfuturestrader]

Mar 04 set-up

The weakness from yesterday spilled over to the night session. The overnight high was 18187 and overnight low 18120. So, futures did find support at yesterday's morning lo at 18120.

The 5 DMA is at 18191.

The daily pivot is at 18187.

Remaining bearish below 18190.

No trade set up currently.

08:50 am: Going short when YM trades at 18118, two ticks below yesterday's low. 3 lot contracts. Close 2 contracts at 18108. For the 3rd contract, move S/L to breakeven after first two contracts filled. Instructions for 3rd contract close per market conditions.

http://www.investing.com/indices/us-30-futures-advanced-chart

10:40am: Sold all three contracts for 120 points gain for the day.

https://www.tradingview.com/e/zsvM4eP2/

Wrap-up:  Morning strong down move found support at 5WMA at 18014. Though too early to say, an outside week is forming on the weeklies.

https://www.tradingview.com/e/zsvM4eP2/

[dowfuturestrader]

Mar 03 Set-up

Dow Futures consolidated nicely in a narrow 24 range.

Overnight Hi: 18253            Overnight Lo: 18229

The daily pivot is at 18213 and the 5 DMA support at 18194.

Set up 1: Between 8am to 9:30 m: Going long @18254, 1 tick above overnight high. Cover at 18274 for a 20 pts. move.

Set up 2 after 9:30am: Go long @ 18268, above yesterdays high.

8:45 am What worked: Going short below overnight low of 18229 to 18203 so far. Coming close to 5 DMA support, but market below DP now. Long when 18190 to DP @18213.

09:50: Long now at 5EMA 18190. Target 18210. S/L 18170.

10:19 am Took profit at 18210 for 20 points gain.

10:20 am: Going long when futures trade at 18241, above morning high. Trade good after 10:30.

11:08 am: The test of morning low happening right now. If bulls have to show up the time is now.

11:10 am: Lowering buy point to 18213 from 18241 for a 20 point move, if and when it happens.

11:43 am: Markets are in trouble as yesterday's breakout is now being fully reversed. All standing long orders cancelled as the weakness is spreading in all world indices, with Europe down about one percent.

2:20 pm: Impressive bounce taking the 5 DMA back. Real strength after it takes out the DP at 18213. The Chinese year of goat/sheep may well turn out to see some wolves show up occasionally to scatter the herd grazing peacefully and climbing surely.

[dowfuturestrader]

Mar 02 Set-up

DJIA futures have been in an up channel since Mar 2009. Current support and resistance levels.

                                      Pivots           5 SMA

Monthly          17350            17597

Weekly           18025            17823

Daily               18192            18163

On Friday, Feb 27, futures closed at 18150.50, which is below the daily pivot and 5 SMA levels. The futures will remain under pressure in the short term till they close above the daily pivots and 5 SMA levels.

0800: Day's Range18,123.00 - 18,179.50 Drift to lows continues. No trade yet.

0900: Found support at Friday's low of 18121, with a weak bounce. Remains under daily pivot, 18192, favoring decline.

Trade 1: Going short at 18120, if and when, for a 20 points down move, with 3 contracts. When triggered, stop loss to be placed at 18140. Best.

0947: YM showing good strength in the early going as it approaches 18192 daily pivot.

1000: Strong move out of the gate on 1st trading day of Mar. Long above 1st half hour bar gained 38 points, without me though! Long above Friday's high gained 36 points.

What worked in the first hour (Open 9:30am EST) trading:

Support at low of last Friday at 18120

Long above overnight high, 18179

Long above Friday's high, 18201

1345: Here comes the test of the day's high at 18246

1500: Pretty C&H on the 30 minutes chart looking to resolve to the upside after 4 hrs. consolidation at the upper end of the morning beast move.