The Redistricting Wars
So, uh... a lot has happened over the past fifteen months. The second Trump administration has performed a series of what can be generously called "huge swings" and less generously called "constitutional crises" in order to enact various components of their agenda and cement the President's legacy in American history (and finances). Republicans have generally been in disarray when trying to legislate and in their response to scandals like Mr. Trump's presence in the Epstein files. But the party has been united in trying to lock Democrats out of power moving forward, most notably in gerrymandering (if you don't know what that is, it's altering the boundaries of congressional districts to secure additional representation for a political or demographic group and less representation for others). Their goal is to hold the House of Representatives regardless of the popular vote.
This started with the President's push to take advantage of his impressive performance in South Texas in 2016 by altering majority-Hispanic districts to be Republican-leaning. This is illegal according to the text and spirit of the Voting Rights Act, but perfectly legal according to the Supreme Court. California Democrats immediately countered with an ultimately successful referendum to alter an equal amount of seats in their state to be Democratic-leaning, and thus began a flurry of actions to gain the upper hand in the political terrain before November's midterm elections. As of April 21st, the following six states have redrawn their House of Representatives maps (excluding Utah, which actually undid an illegal Republican gerrymander on court order):
California (in favor of Democrats, 5 additional Harris-won seats)
Missouri (in favor of Republicans, 1 additional Trump-won seat)
North Carolina (in favor of Republicans, 1 additional Trump-won seat)
Ohio (in favor of Republicans, 1 additional Trump-won seat)
Texas (in favor of Republicans, 5 additional Trump-won seats)
Virginia (in favor of Democrats, 4 additional Harris-won seats)
Of note is Florida - Governor DeSantis and state Republicans will try to push through one more map, but we don't know the design of the map or how courts will affect its implementation this year.
On paper, the combined known quantities look like a net one-seat gain for Democrats, which would be really funny. But it's important to note that not all gerrymanders are created equal - some achieve the target party composition with ease, while others backfire. So which will happen for each of these maps, and how will that affect the midterms overall? Let's break things down, state by state:
California
2024 Results: 43D - 9R, 2026 SAPPHIRE Projection (April 21): 48D-4R
Potentially Competitive Seats: 13 (Old) -> 12 (New)
This is a REALLY impressive (is that the right word?) map. Of the 48 Democratic seats here, Republicans only have more than a 10% chance to win *one* this year according to my fundamentals model, and it's the 22nd district in the Central Valley, a seat that was already close in 2024. Not only have Democrats succeeded in their goal, they also shored up lots of existing seats in the event of a future red wave like Districts 13 (the San Joaquin Valley) and 27 (Lancaster and surrounding cities).
Missouri
2024 Results: 2D - 6R, 2026 SAPPHIRE Projection (April 21): 1D - 7R
Potentially Competitive Seats: 1 (Old) -> 2 (New)
This is another highly competent map. The 5th district (Kansas City) has been torn to shreds here and is basically an auto-flip for the GOP. Meanwhile, the 2nd district south of St. Louis has also been fortified for Republicans a bit. It's still gettable for Democrats, but if they flip it, it will probably just add to a larger cushion.
North Carolina
2024 Results: 4D - 9R, 2026 SAPPHIRE Projection (April 21): 3D - 10R
Potentially Competitive Seats: 3 (Old) -> 10 (New)
Likely under pressure from the President, North Carolina Republicans drew a new map that tries really, really hard to kick Representative Don Davis out of his seat in the northeast corner of the state's 1st district. It might not work - he has a 1-in-4 chance of hanging on - but the road is noticeably tougher for him in a seat Trump won by 12 points in 2024. Other than that, the map doesn't do a lot. The GOP didn't even shore up the 11th district, which remains a fringe battleground. In addition, this map has a high backfiring ceiling. In a generationally successful cycle, Democrats could theoretically sweep all thirteen seats and wipe the Republican bench in a pivotal swing state. That's a *very* marginal possibility (only ~1%), but it's a risk politicians don't usually take.
Ohio
2024 Results: 5D - 10R, 2026 SAPPHIRE Projection (April 21): 4D - 11R
Potentially Competitive Seats: 6 (Old) -> 7 (New)
WEAK.
There are a lot of byzantine rules in Ohio redistricting meant to deter gerrymandering, and I guess they worked. Republicans are only projected to flip the Toledo-based 9th district this cycle, and their redraw likely had minimal effect - it was already pretty Trumpy, and incumbent Congresswoman Marcy Kaptur is going to be tough to unseat, so that race is close to a tossup. The 1st district in Cincinnati saw the biggest swing between the old and new maps, but again, there's a strong Democratic incumbent here, so it goes from a solid seat to a likely hold. Other than that, the GOP punted on Akron's 13th district and just used it to keep liberals out of other seats. Didn't work that well, though - in a sufficiently big blue wave, they could feasibly lose three seats they currently hold.
Texas
2024 Results: 13D - 25R, 2026 Projection (April 21): 8D - 30R
Potentially Competitive Seats: 5 (Old) -> 8 (New)
The map that started this whole headache is... less than impressive. That topline projection looks eye-popping, but the actual changes are a little sloppy. There are new seats for the GOP in Dallas and Houston, sure, but look at South Texas and you won't see much deep red. It feels plausible that Democrats hold steady in the region if the voters that defected to Trump there in 2024 revert to their former patterns. There's even an outside chance (~1 in 8) that Republicans turn out to have spread themselves too thin south of San Antonio and *lose* the 15th district in the state. Of course, the 2024 voting patterns could always hold and the GOP gets everything they wanted here. That's not a guarantee, though.
Virginia
2024 Results: 6D - 5R, 2026 Baseline: 10D - 1R
Potentially Competitive Seats: 5 (Old) -> 5 (New)
When I ran the numbers on the map that was passed via referendum earlier tonight, I said "Dear God" out loud to myself. There's a major caveat here - since the filing deadline is a ways away, we can't factor incumbency into our estimates, so the SAPPHIRE projection isn't available yet. But just looking at the partisanship and demographic trends, Democrats were incredibly savvy here. Even if Republicans have another 2024-esque cycle, each of these seats has them as a 25-75 underdog at best to start, and their absolute ceiling is basically what they have right now. Democrats, meanwhile, are almost certain to win at least 9 seats and have over a 90% chance of winning the tenth seat this year. This is the most unrecognizable map of the redraws, but the stats don't lie here.
Conclusion
If you look at the headlines, you'd imagine that Democrats fought the redistricting wars to a draw this cycle. But if you dig deeper, they basically unequivocally won - their two new maps are arguably the two most effective, while most GOP maps have significant fail or backfire conditions, ranging from incumbent overperformance to demographic reversion to terrible worst-case scenarios. House Republicans need to hope that they can get through a Florida map that avoids those pitfalls or they may be in trouble not just this year, but for the rest of the decade.
