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"The Fairest of Them All" A EuroQuision Article

Hello everyone! I hope you're ready for the first official EuroQuision article release! This one is a mathematical doozy, but trust me when I say this is worth the read. If you wanna download a PDF of the article, you can do so here!

And if you don't feel like downloading the whole thing, I'll be copying the entire article into this post after the section break so you can read it here! Thanks so much to the Patrons and other supporters that make this work possible!

The Fairest of Them All

By Beatrice Quinn

Quickly: what is the most overrated song of Eurovision 2024?

…got an answer? Ok, now: Prove it.

Today we’re talking about one of the most ambiguous, aimless, misunderstood metrics we use to say whether a song is overrated or not, and that is: Ratings. Literally! Now, we’re familiar with “ranking” Eurovision songs – dragging and re-dragging “Halo” up and down your 2022 scoreboard depending on whether or not you think Pia Maria is a real person or not – and other such activities! Ranking is crucial and emblematic to the existence of Eurovision and its fans, it hardly needs to be said. Developing babies watch the dancing fruits of Cocomelon, we watch a series of rectangles and numbers combine to shift and jump around aimlessly until they eventually settle in place. And once they’ve settled in place, forever to remain unmoving from those results, fans all across the world will continue to exist in a frenzy about how they should have landed instead.

But what’s the difference between ranking and rating? And by extension, why are the phrases “overrated” and “underrated” thrown around so frequently? Well, ranking songs is an action that always exists in and around the context of all competing songs that year. That’s why when the first Eurovision song of the season rolls around – usually courtesy of our lovely Albanians – it’s ridiculous and repeatedly unfunny to see YouTubers upload their “Eurovision 2021: Top 1 Ranking” videos. Rating a song is something you can do whether you’re talking about one song, or 42 songs. You don’t have to judge the songs ranked against each other. You can judge it based on its own merits or whatever frame of reference you have. I’m not here to write an article trying to tell people how they can or can’t rate songs – I would only ever tell that to the WiwiJury. And I would tell them politely, yet firmly, to stop.

No, I’m writing all this to do one thing: To give you a quick math lesson! And by quick, I really mean it, I promise. I swear I’m not a nerd! Well, that’s a lie. I’m a huge nerd. But I’m not a math nerd. It would be more accurate to say I’m a numbers nerd – specifically, Eurovision numbers. That’s the kind of numbers we like! We’ve seen our share of Twitter polls, asking us to choose between anything from Biggest National Final Robberies to “do you think Joker Out read the fanfic?” We just love stats and percentages! So I’m here to put those to the test in the most straight-forward, least-opinionated way possible. And let me be so clear about this: This article is not going to try and definitely prove anyone’s personal tastes right or wrong. This is about the mathematical results of how we rate Eurovision songs and whether or not this provides any accuracy.

Before we get into all the numbers: Let’s say you’re an Albania stan – a type of stan I’m familiar with, fond of, and am deeply frightened by – and you go to EurovisionWorld.com to excitedly check the results of the star ratings left by online visitors from every end of the earth, all coming to rate a song you’re excited to rate and enjoy yourself. You get there and you see: 2 stars – 2,815 ratings. Your heart sinks. “Only two stars? Is this actually a bad song? Do people hate the song? Am I dumb for liking it?” These are all things we’ve all felt about certain songs we hold dear to our heart, but it really doesn’t make sense, right? Why should a number generated by the preferences of 2,815 people sway your feelings towards a song you like? Then, as the season goes on, more songs pop up and get rated as well. As your Albanian gem middles out around 2.3 stars after 5,000 or so people decided to rate it, you see a grinning Dutch lad beating out the majority of the competition in terms of stars. “Wait, that just has so many views and over ten thousand more ratings than Albania has, what gives?” Then: the accusations start. “Joost is overrated!!” “Baby Lasagna’s hype won’t last forever.” “Vidbir said they’ll announce the results after six business days, not counting shipping and handling, but when they do, they’re gonna be so overrated.” And on the flip side: “Everyone is sleeping on Dons.” “Hera shock Q in May.” Various statements that however passionate are sadly not actually provable – at least, not in the moment.

It goes without saying that a Eurovision song’s rating out of 5 stars on EurovisionWorld does not, in any way, affect the results and winners of Eurovision. Instead, these ratings exist as a rare form of communal discussion. While the subjectivity of musical taste varies, we all get to share our opinions. And this process is what leaves us with two sides of the same undefinable coin: Over or Under Rated.

We all have experiences with people or conversations where a fun song may be chastised for being overrated, or overly praised for being underrated. The attitude for or against a song doesn’t always exist like this – you can love an overrated song and hate an underrated one, I don’t care. But the point here is: these terms are something we relate to being an idea or descriptor, rather than something that can be mathematically determined. In fact, by treating the Eurovision “rating” system in its current state as purely a matter of statistics, we can then use that information to reference other claims against it. It’s quite scientific, if I do say so myself. Now, are both my college degrees in film, music, and writing? Yes. Did I ever get anything higher than a B in any math class I’ve ever taken? No. But allow me to explain!

If someone were to say “Sweden is overrated,” what if there were a way to actually find out if that’s accurate or not? And once you find that out with some quick math, you can use that as evidence as to why or why not Sweden is overrated. My hope is that once we find out whether a song is mathematically overrated or underrated, we can then discuss possible reasons why or why not. Of course, this kind of question is going to be answered by collecting a LOT of numbers and doing a LOT of organization. Luckily I know someone who personally is sick enough in the head to sit down and pour through all the numbers, make the spreadsheets, make the graph, explain the equation, and write the article about it.

…it’s me. I think the “write the article” part was a giveaway, but here we are! So enough fluff, let’s get rating!

CHAPTER 1: The EuroQuision Equation!

Say that five times fast. And if you choose not to say that five times fast: I respect your decision, but I am disappointed in you.

So, we’re working with numbers. That means I am now tasked with figuring out the best way to observe the information I’m given, find out how it all balances out, and how do we compare all of that together? For context, there are two key components to finding out how over or underrated a Eurovision song is. As you’ll see while scrolling down the songs of any Eurovision year, you’ll see the stars beside them which are a result of ratings given by any IP address that rates the song. So not only do you get to see a song’s star rating, you can also see how many people contributed to that average rating. For anyone who doesn’t know, averages are a mathematical result of adding up the values of a set of inputs, then dividing that total by the amount of inputs. It’s hard to explain averages in a proper sentence, so here’s an example. If you are given the numbers 4, 8, and 3, you would first add up the numbers. 4+8+3 equals 15. Then, you take the sum (15) and divide it by how many numbers you added together. You added 3 numbers, so you divide (15 / 3) and find the average of 4, 8, and 3 is 5.

This is how those star ratings show up the way they do. If a song is rated by 10,000 people, you would add up the total stars given by each person, then divide that by 10,000. However, there’s another statistic we can find out by collecting all of this information. Like I said before in the Albania example, there are songs that only get 10,000 ratings by April, and others have hit over 40,000. You would think it’s as simple as saying “The songs with the most ratings are overrated, case closed.” But I’m here to say: not quite! If you were to rank the songs by most to least amount of ratings, that’s one result to find, sure. But I’m choosing to ask: what’s the average amount of ratings themselves? It’s something we can actually find out, since we have all the information!

Needing only the numbers provided by EurovisionWorld.com, we can find out what the average number of ratings is, and what the average number of stars is. We can’t really say who is over or underrated until we have an idea of how many people have contributed to these ratings. After finding these averages, the next step would be to compare and contrast how close or far each country deviates from those averages. Let’s say, if I were to add up all the star scores and find their average, I get an average of 3 stars. Therefore, any song that scores fewer stars than that is under average, and those scoring higher are above average. The same goes for ratings. After adding up EVERY number of ratings from each country and dividing by 37, we’ll know the average number of times a Eurovision 2024 song is rated. This will matter greatly in comparison to other years because the global attention to Eurovision grows every year. A year like 2014 is going to have a significantly lower average number of ratings simply because not as many people rated the songs in comparison to 2024. Sounds easy enough, right?

Ok, even if it’s not “easy” to understand now, it will be very soon! To help guide us into the numbers of it all, I made some visual aids! Let’s stop talking about the numbers and actually start crunching them!

CHAPTER 2: Playing With Numbers

Before we find out if any country is over or underrated, we gotta find our global averages first! Let’s look at the stars first. As you know, a song can achieve anywhere from 1 to 5 stars on EurovisionWorld.com – a very standard format! While we the voters/raters can only select a whole number of stars (one star, four stars, etc.), the website takes all those scores and calculates the average for us and displays that as a more accurate number often with a decimal point. Another important note is that I know this information doesn’t exist in stasis: songs can continue to be rated long after the contest is over. So for accuracy’s sake, I gathered ALL numerical information for this essay on one day: April 25th! This is to account for a few factors. Like I said, the amount of ratings grows over time and has a recency bias, so I didn’t want to get the ratings in late March. I also didn’t want to wait after the contest, just in case any results of the contest cause a shift in mass ratings from the rest of the world. I chose April 25th to write down every song’s current amount of ratings and current star score so that it reflected nothing but expectation and audience reaction, and without any influence from rehearsals or live shows.

Now, a song’s release day does play a part in how many ratings and stars it gets…most times. We’ll discuss that in the analysis chapter AFTER we go over all the numbers. So, this is all you need to know right now: I collected these numbers on April 25th, 2024. Additionally, there’s something else I did for making the math easier and more score-like, which is that I convert a song’s total amount of ratings into a whole number with one decimal point so that I’m operating with two factors closer to each other in size. For example, if a song has 18,311 ratings, I’m converting that to 18.3 so that I’m working with a star score of, for example, 3.6 and a rating total of 18.3, which are easier to put into the equation and find a Deviation Score that is represented by a small, whole number. The last important detail is that there WILL be more visual aids, and if any of this is still confusing by the end, let me know and I’ll figure out how to make this easier for everyone!

Lastly, you might wonder why I’m looking at both stars and ratings in this big equation. If this is about who is or isn’t fairly rated, why do the star scores matter? Well, I’m factoring both ratings and stars in a song’s Deviation Score because these numbers don’t exist separately from each other. A song only gets a star score after thousands of people leave their opinions, and people share those opinions in this medium by clicking somewhere between one and five stars. Therefore, it isn’t fair to say a song is “overrated” simply because more people have rated that song compared to others. Spam rating exists (as EurovisionWorld has learned the hard way), and there are songs every year that are perceivably more “popular” based on things like YouTube video views or Spotify streams. Those things don’t factor into this because simply watching the video or streaming the song isn’t the same thing as “rating” it. Spotify only has stream counts, and YouTube has a like or dislike button. EurovisionWorld has a conventional 5-star rating system that is determined by people from all around the world and is mathematically calculated. So by giving a song a Deviation Score that’s based on how close/far from average a song is in stars and ratings, we’re acknowledging all the factors that go into this question.

Now onto the numbers! Do you wanna take a guess as to how many ratings were left on EurovisionWorld.com from the start of the season through Apr. 25th? There was a staggering total of 689,968 ratings across 37 songs! Over half a million ratings is a lot of opinions, right? And still that’s barely a fraction of the total people who watch the show itself. Regardless, that’s the information we have to work with! So, if there’s a total of 689,986 ratings given out to 37 different songs, that means our avg. # of ratings is: 689,968 / 37 = 18,647.7838. Obviously, 18,647.7838 is an awfully long, complicated number to use. Therefore, I’m simplifying it to just 18.6 (approx. 18,600 ratings). So, 18.6 is our avg. # of ratings. As for avg. # of stars, there is a grand total of 130.1 stars totalled up between all the songs. This is a really good number, when you consider the math. For example, if every song of 2024 only got on average one (1) star, then we’d have a total of just 37 stars. So with this info, it means our avg. # of stars is: 130.1 / 37 = 3.51621622…… and many more numbers after that. Therefore, I’ll state our avg. # of stars is 3.5. Once again, this is a good number! On a scale of only one to five stars, the average of that would just be 2.5 stars, right in the middle. That means the public thinks that overall, Eurovision 2024 is a bit above an average level of quality. And I would agree! Anyway, just to sum up all the numbers we just found out, I’ll list them here:

Total amount of ratings from all songs: 689,968

Avg. amount of ratings per song: 18.6 (simplified from 18,647)

Total amount of stars from all songs: 130.1

Avg. amount of stars per song: 3.5 (simplified from 3.5162…)

For me, the easy part is over and the hard part begins. Now is when we begin to document every song’s amount of ratings, their star scores, and running the math to see how far above or below the averages they are. For the super hot and cool nerds that like excel sheets, I’ll link the viewable sheet of all the info at the end of the article! For the sake of this article, I’m going to choose a couple key examples, and those are: Sweden, the Netherlands, Iceland, and…sadly, “Israel.”

CHAPTER 3: Do We Have a Valid Result?

Let’s actually see this equation in action and find out what we can learn from all of this. The reason we’re going to be looking at these select countries is that each of them exists at a very specific point on the spectrum of overrated or underrated. We’ll begin with the country that receives arguably the most “overrated” accusations thrown at them in a given Eurovision season, and that is: Sweden! Did you find the twins’ song unforgettable? Regardless, let’s run their numbers through our equation and figure out just how “rated” they are.

As you remember from our graphic, the equation we use is shown as (a - x) + (b - y) = z. Let’s take a look at Sweden’s stats, which are documented altogether in the same list as all 37 songs. “a” is Sweden’s star score. Sweden, as of April 25th, has a score of 3.4 stars. “x” is the total average of stars across all songs, which is 3.5. (3.4 - 3.5) = -0.1. This -0.1 means that Sweden is just ever so slightly below the average score, which is something I would agree with (but that part’s just my opinion). The second half of our equation is about ratings. Sweden was rated on EurovisionWorld a total of 18,259 times. We simplify that big number just to 18.2, and we subtract the average number of ratings from that number. (18.2 - 18.6) = -0.4. Now, we can also observe that in its total number of ratings, Sweden is actually still below average, even though not by a whole lot. Now that we have -0.1 and -0.4 reflecting Sweden’s relationship to the global average of stars and ratings respectively, we combine those! (-0.1) + (-0.4) = -0.5. There you go! Sweden got a score of, overall, slightly underrated. Shocking, right? That’s right, in numbers and stats alone, Sweden is very close to the global averages. However, the claim that they’re “underrated” isn’t as true as it sounds once we look at another country through this equation.

Next, let’s take a look at a country that was 1st in the odds…only to fall from those heights down to a last place finish in their semi-final. Iceland’s song “Scared of Heights” is an interesting case. I won’t try and pretend that these ratings exist separately from a song’s public perception – or at times, their public drama. So don’t worry, we’ll address that and much more after we do more fun math activities. Not many people were running around saying “Husavik 2025!” when this got selected, but how was it rated? Iceland has the literal lowest star score out of all 37 songs this year, sitting at 2 whole stars. Since we know the global average is 3.5, that means Iceland is -1.5 stars from the average. However, this is where we can see the ways ratings and stars can differ. When it comes to stars, a song scores anywhere from 1 to 5; it’s not a very wide range. But for ratings, Iceland only has 10,951 ratings (shown as 10.9). Even compared to Sweden, that’s eight thousand fewer ratings, meaning: people either chose not to go out of their way to leave a rating, or it's just not as popular. From the average of 18.6, Iceland’s 10.9 ratings is a whole -7.7 away from the average. Let’s combine those two differences: (-1.5) + (-7.7) = -9.2. In comparison to Sweden, Iceland is actually “underrated” when we look at the numbers. That final score of -9.2 is a culmination of the song not only getting a lower score, but it comes from fewer people deciding to rate it. Would “Scared of Heights” be closer to the average amount of stars if more people had chosen to give it a rating? Or would more ratings just reflect the same sad score of 2 stars? This is something to consider when we have more context about who/which countries have more ratings than our first two examples.

They may have been disqualified for total BS reasons, but they’ll never be disqualified from my heart! The Netherlands’ “Europapa” is a song that has a lot to give it a leg up over a country like Iceland when it comes to public perception: Joost Klein is a more “established” artist in comparison to most Eurovision competition. “Europapa” contains satirical-yet-universal lyrics that touch on personal and international topics at the same time, and the whole thing is a lot of good fun, even with a touching ending. However, this can all add up to what no sounds like a very reasonable claim of “overrated”-ness. Do the numbers reflect that? Unsurprisingly: yes, yes they do. The Netherlands has a star score of 4.1, which is the average score from a total of 35,557 ratings. Again, we see how the number of ratings can vary much wider than just star scores on their own – I can only imagine how it feels to see someone else’s song get 20,000 more ratings than yours. Let’s run the equation!. (4.1 - 3.5) + (35.5 - 18.6) => (0.6) + (16.9) = 17.5. As you can see, now that we move to the opposite end of the spectrum, the difference in influence is more observable. That score of 17.5 now properly reflects how a star score of 4.1 comes from a severe increase in number of ratings, and Joost’s popularity can very well be a factor in that, all regardless if the song is “good” or “bad.”. Like I promised, we’ll talk about the implications and conclusions these numbers can represent in a moment. We have one more “country” to look at.

“Israel,” as I’m sure you need no reminding, is the reason all of Eurovision 2024 was a complex, un-fun, total mess of a season. All the reasons supporting this can fill up their own article, so we’re going to be focusing on how 2024’s hottest potato fares in terms of stars and ratings. “Israel” and their song “Octo–” sorry, “Hurricane” has the same star score as the Netherlands, which is 4.1 stars out of 5. However, “Hurricane” has almost ten thousand more ratings than “Europapa,” at 45,255 ratings. (4.1 - 3.5) + (45.2 - 18.6) => (0.6) + (26.6) = 27.2. Just for another moment, let’s disregard the implications of this number and just compare it to the 3 other examples we’ve done. At one end of the spectrum, Iceland is underrated with a Deviation Score of -9.2, and Sweden has a Dev. Score of -0.5. As a reminder, if a country is completely and perfectly “average,” they would receive a score of 0; as in, it’s not overrated nor is it underrated. However, the score for songs being underrated are a lot less severe than the others. The Netherlands’ Dev. Score of 17.5 and “Israel’s” 27.2 are up in the double digits, but why?

Well, the first explanation is very easily observable: “Israel,” the Netherlands, and several other countries are simply rated more than other countries are. Therefore, this is evidence to support the claim that more people overrate songs than people who underrate other songs. For context, the country with the lowest number of ratings is Albania, with only 9,094 ratings and a star score of 3.1 stars. The country with the highest number of ratings is actually Croatia, with 47,315 ratings as of April 25th and has the highest “overrated” Dev. Score with 29.5. And now that we have our equation and can actually tell who is statistically over or underrated, let’s actually ask what that “means.”

CHAPTER 4: Take (It) Away

At ten pages (and two visual aids) in, we finally have some concrete numbers to look at and discuss, leading with the question: What are we meant to take away? If being over/underrated is now mathematically observable, what does it all mean? To answer that question, we need to look at the entirety of our data table and apply real-world context to the numbers we’re looking at. As I mentioned near the beginning of this article, this is not about simple labels. Let’s start with the observation I made right before this chapter, “More people are more likely to overrate songs than people are to underrate them.” This is visible in multiple ways. First, as we discovered when we found the global average of each song’s star score, we got a score of 3.5/5 – above average! But it’s not just about the stars; there’s another noticeable trend between the highest star-scoring songs and how many people have rated them. Ten songs from 2024 have a star score of 4 stars or higher – Croatia, Greece, and Serbia were all tied at 4.3 stars. Between all ten songs, they have a total of 292,504 ratings. Now at the other end of the star spectrum, how do the lowest scorers look?

Well, no song this year got less than 2 stars, now matter how much I dislike “Scared of Heights.” However, there are eight songs that scored below 3 stars, in comparison to the ten higher scoring songs. Fun fact: Finland’s “No Rules!” is the lowest-ranking song that qualified for the final (as of April 25th), whereas the highest ranked NQ was Belgium. Anyway, between those eight songs underneath 3 stars, there’s only 129,063 ratings, which is approx. 170 thousand fewer ratings. The numbers don’t lie: if anyone ever claims “Eurofans just like to hate things,” statistically that’s wrong! It’s not impossible, either. On that note, though, one would be allowed to ask “But doesn’t that mean there are songs that are overrated?” And if you’re talking about the literal, specific definition of songs having a greater number of ratings than others, then yes you’re right. But I have a feeling that most people say the word “overrated” more emotionally than logically. Remember how I introduced Sweden as one of the most frequently overrated countries? My guess is that you didn’t disagree with that claim. And I’m not just guessing: I’ve seen every upset Kaarija stan, Mans-hater, and person with ears that dislikes “If I Were Sorry.” Sweden’s no stranger to the overrated accusation, but we just saw how this year that’s statistically untrue. The most perfectly middle-rated song this year is Luxembourg’s “Fighter” with a Deviation Score of -0.4. Sweden, Slovenia, Austria, and Czechia round out the Top 5 Most-Midrated Songs of 2024. And like the title of this article says, these five songs are by all definition “the fairest” of them all. Czechia is actually closest to the average number of ratings (that 18.6 we’ve been using in the equation) with 18,614 ratings. But hey, I like to indulge my own curiosity, so I wondered if these numbers are connected at all to who did or didn’t qualify. In Eurovision 2024, 11 songs did not qualify to the Grand Final. So, let’s look at the 11 most statistically-underrated songs!

They are from lowest to highest (of the low): Albania, Iceland, Azerbaijan, Moldova, Australia, San Marino, Armenia, Portugal, Malta, Latvia, and Cyprus. Now, Denmark and Poland aren’t that much higher than these 11, but they managed to not be in the bottom 11. And of these lowest 11 Dev. Scores, 7 ended up being NQ’s. In fact, it’s more understandable why the few Q’s of the bottom 11 are here. Armenia was the last-revealed song of 2024, and Portugal had the very last National Final of the season. They didn’t have as much time between their selection and April 25th when I collected the numbers like other songs had. And yet, Albania was one of the earliest selections and sits at the very bottom of the list – time may not heal all wounds.

Cyprus and Latvia are the other two songs from the Bottom 11 of the Underrated’s that qualified, and I genuinely think this is where the legitimate factor of chance plays a part. Cyprus came 6th in its semi, so we can state that the live performance and competition of the semi elevated Cyprus to a better position in the televoters’ preference, despite the odds! Latvia could be a similar case, as it finished 7th in the second semi-final. Then come Saturday, the two songs ended up right next to each other on the scoreboard with Cyprus at 15th and Latvia at 16th. As we keep moving up the list of Deviation Scores, we can spot the four songs that did qualify in the eyes of the raters, but not in the show itself. Denmark is just above Cyprus, and two more spots up is Poland. Four more spots up is Czechia among the most midrated songs of the year, so they were a true “Could go either way” case. Then in the biggest jump to our final non-qualifier, Belgium is 11 spots higher than Czechia and sits at being the 9th Most Overrated of 2024. Here and now, we have finally arrived at the fabled: Shock NQ. Now, a non-qualifier being a “shock” is up to your own opinion. If you’re me, you’re sitting here writing this article knowing damn well you knew Belgium’s Q-streak was over before Mustii hit the stage. This is the honest truth, and only Silia Kapsis has the right to try and say otherwise. But it also can be said that it’s not about asking “Who was the Shock NQ?” and more about asking “Who had the most attention before they NQ’d?” And the answer would be Belgium! Anyway, at this point I’m starting to think to myself “Huh, can using this over/underrated equation be a method to possibly predict a country’s qualification?”

…and then I remembered: Qualifiers are chosen entirely by televote. Therefore, if the Deviation Scores can predict the qualifiers with about 64% accuracy, can it predict the televoting Top Ten?...Let’s find out!

When looking at the Top Ten Most Overrated Songs of 2024, we have:

1st. Croatia

2nd. Israel

3rd. Netherlands

4th. Switzerland

5th. Italy

6th. France

7th. Ukraine

8th. Greece

9th. Belgium

10th. Ireland

(11th: Lithuania)

And for comparison, let’s look at the Top Ten of the 2024 Televote:

1st. Croatia

2nd. Israel

3rd. Ukraine

4th. France

5th. Switzerland

6th. Ireland

7th. Italy

8th. Greece

9th. Armenia

10th. Lithuania

To begin, you’ll notice I included the 11th Most Overrated song in parenthesis, which is Lithuania. I did this to reflect that even though the Netherlands is 3rd Most Overrated, they sadly weren’t able to receive the televotes they deserved the night of the Final. Using the data from this table alone, my conclusion on the Netherlands is that they were easily going to place Top Ten in the Televote, which would then leave who in 11th? Lithuania. All that’s left is to replace Belgium – a poorly-staged pop ballad with a party-harshing climax – with Armenia, which is a song bursting with fun, flawless vocals, and something so Armenian it caused Azerbaijan to get sent to the Doom Dimension. Additionally, mostly out of curiosity, I checked how many more reviews “Jako” has on EurovisionWorld as of May 22nd, and they’re up from ~12,000 ratings to ~18,000 while maintaining their 3.7 star score both times – that’s a show of quality and enjoyment from audiences over time. So other than those cases…I think I just mathematically figured out how to predict the televote? And, I don’t even mean the Top Ten – I mean the whole competition.

So I ask you this: What do we do when we are suddenly given information about the ways the results of Eurovision can be reflected in data before the fact? The answer is not “try and make a profit.” No, that’s not how EuroQuision works. Instead: we use it as mathematical evidence that propaganda fucking works.

CHAPTER 5: Couldn’t See It Comin’

Except: now we know we did see it coming.

Before we dive into the serious stuff, you might be thinking that what I’ve presented is an attempt or desire to “break Eurovision” or take advantage of this information for personal gain. I won’t deny that bets play a huge role in Eurovision – it’s how we get the odds in the first place. But if you know me, you know I’m not in this for the money, even though that may differ from the EBU’s intentions. The truth is that I don’t have any practical means to try and “profit” from any way this information could be used. Part of journalism and sharing of information is the inability I have to control how it’s used despite my best intention.

My intention with this article is to provide evidence that “Israel’s” attempts at utilizing Eurovision to get a good result and repaint their global image was nearly perfect, and the numbers said it was going to happen the whole time. Even without the numbers from EurovisionWorld, we knew how desperate “Israel’s” pleas for votes from the world were. From Duolingo’ing her way across the internet to coordinated efforts to vote en masse in various countries, Eden Golan was gunning for a televote win that she nearly reached, and that’s assuming every single one of those votes were completely legitimate. This is not said to try and accuse anyone of fraudulent voting when I don’t have evidence to support that. I mention it because vote buying is a practice that has been done in the past and actual delegations received punishment for doing so. Given the context of every other effort “Israel” put into their campaign for votes – and I mean everything: begging other artists/teams for positive press and harassing them to the point of retaliation – doesn’t make fraudulent voting seem out of the question.

Unfortunately, I am no expert on voter fraud – ironic, me being an American and all, but I digress. This is something that, if proven true, will be revealed in the time post-Eurovision 2024. And if it’s true, I will happily discuss it! But for now, I can only talk about what we do know, which is the newfound connection between EurovisionWorld’s sample of public ratings indicating a song’s predicted success or failure in the contest. This connection is reflective of the greatest tool a Eurovision song has: public perception. Or as some countries treat it: propaganda. Even though “Israel” is a country being sued by the ICJ for genocide, actively commit acts of violence to Palestinians as well as fellow-EBU member countries Lebanon, Jordan, and Egpyt, and were told multiple times by the EBU reference group to rewrite their political song lyrics, they still performed and qualified and finished Top Ten. Truly, did we even need my equation to prove “Hurricane” was overrated? Not really. Instead, “Hurricane” being so statistically overrated was a symptom of the larger effect of a successful PR campaign. When you consider that “Israel’s” mere existence inside of Eurovision is in itself a PR campaign, none of this is surprising. “Israeli” media took every possible moment to try and tell the world that their Eurovision participation was a good thing and truly represented being “united by music.” They did this in commercials and even in what “Israel” calls a sketch comedy show.

All of these factors had me worried that despite my best hopes and efforts, somehow “Israel” would pull off a good result when they should have been removed months ago. However, the numbers were there the whole time. As we can see, the numbers don’t only apply to solely to “Israel.” Just as they came 2nd in my list and 2nd in the televote, Croatia was 1st in both, and the accuracy of the Top Ten as well as the bottom eleven/NQ’s can’t be ignored either. Truly think about that for a moment: on April 25th – several days before we saw any rehearsal footage or official performance – we knew with 80-90% accuracy the Grand Final televote results and who wasn’t going to qualify with 64% accuracy. And before you suggest that this was a Eurovision 2024-exclusive phenomenon, I thought of that too! So as a surprise fun addition, I ran my equation with the 2023 songs as well!

Since I can’t travel back in time to April 25th 2023, there’s no way I could collect all the ratings and stars with the same accuracy as I did for 2024, Thankfully, using the Wayback Machine Internet Archive. I managed to “go back in time” to a window of time spanning from mid-April to early-May and collect all the numbers. Even with a wider window of information, the 2023 Deviation Scores proved to be almost identical in accuracy – even more accurate in some cases. Starting with the Bottom 11 Most Underrated according to my equation, 9 of those countries turned out to be NQ’s. At the other end with the Top 10 Most Overrated, 7 out of those 10 did in fact finish in the Televote Top 10. And who was the most “overrated” of 2023? Not Finland, not Sweden, but “Israel” and “Unicorn.” This shows that for two years in a row, despite the drastic shift in public opinion and discussion concerning Israel’s participation, their songs that directly correlate to geopolitical aggression and self-victimization proved effective in the realm of Eurovision. So once again, I ask you, the reader: What do we do? CONCLUSION

Since I’m aware that a 20-page article is a bit long, I will go ahead and just list out the most important bits of information I covered and discussed:

Using the information from EurovisionWorld.com, we created an equation that figures out how close or far a song is from the global average of both stars and number of ratings.

Comparing these Deviation Scores reflects a somewhat-accurate correlation between how much the public “rates” a song and whether that song qualifies or potentially comes Top Ten in the Televote

Once these connections can be observed, we can discuss what factors or influences play a part in these connections (Is a song more popular? Is it less popular? Is it representing a country committing war crimes and hopes no one notices? Etc etc.)

Finally, here in the conclusion of all of this, we can answer that third point. As I mentioned, cases like Joost and “Europapa” being overrated are fairly easy to explain; well-known artist, extremely radio-friendly banger song, the list goes on. It also reflects why Iceland and “Scared of Heights” is near the bottom; a more “generic” paint-by-numbers pop song with simple English lyrics, a very unambitious composition, etc etc. However, there’s a difference between a song being over/underrated based on merit, and those with scores based on skewed public opinion one way or another.

I won’t pretend for a moment that spam-liking or spam-disliking doesn’t exist. For example, I’m aware of how Bashar Murad was the clear favorite to win over Hera Bjork, but sadly finished 2nd in what felt like a very devastating blow to the potential of Palestinian representation at Eurovision when it’s needed most. Anyone who rated Iceland poorly because of this is able to do so just as fairly as those who rate it low based on song quality alone. I cannot control the reasons as to why people choose to rate a song high vs. low.

Conversely, you might reasonably be saying “If ‘Israel’ is continuing to treat this as one big PR stunt, wouldn’t that mean all those positive ratings and their televote score are a result of artificially inflating the numbers and/or buying votes?” And as much as that’s one possible explanation, I’ll remind you that there are people who genuinely just enjoy “Hurricane” and dislike having to engage in contextualizing “Israel’s” Eurovision participation. For example, Worldvishawn is a Eurovision TikTok creator with over 300,000 followers, and on multiple occasions has published videos voicing his enjoyment and support of “Hurricane” this year. In a video discussing “Hurricane’s” rehearsals, he notes that the song is a “9/10” and is a case where “the live vocals are better than the studio version.” The issue here is not the fact that a fan of Eurovision has a positive opinion of a song that a lot of people dislike, that’s never a problem with me. The issue is that people with large platforms are able to give their opinions to hundreds of thousands of people with the click of a button and provides a space where people can attempt to remove any context of “Hurricane” and “Israel” whatsoever and just say the song is good. This is what indicates to me that all the positive numbers surrounding this song aren’t all completely fabricated and this should not conclude in a baseless accusation of buying or faking votes.

Eurovision 2024 was a year where at every level of control, nearly everyone chose to do nothing rather than doing something. At the tippy top of the ranks, it was up to the EBU to remove “Israel” because of their own previously-established actions and morals concerning geopolitical violence during Eurovision, specifically in the case of Russia. After they refused to do that, it was the responsibility of participating broadcasters to withdraw and refuse to participate. After all 37 broadcasters refused to actually do anything, it was up to the artists to put their career aside and take a stand in the public eye. And then, none of the artists did that! Some showed and voiced their advocacy, but none of them showed solidarity. If you aren’t familiar with the difference between advocacy and solidarity, advocacy is when you “advocate” your morals and beliefs in your words and attitude. Solidarity is when you put those words to action and actually do something actionable to disrupt the status quo to be in solidarity with those who are suffering and against a system of power that is ignoring them. And since none of the artists’ advocacy led to solidarity, there we were with a Grand Final with “Israel” coming 2nd in the televote and no one doing anything about it.

Now, I could go down the entire chain of responsibility of “Who needs to do something about this?” and eventually land where I and many others have been for months, which is the fun destination of Boycottville, but a lot of people hear the B-word and think its an invitation to start arguing and calling me a hypocrite. What I will state is this: boycotting is not something asked of us to try and simply prove our morals for show or optics, and it is not something we ask people do to in order to shame them should they choose not to. Boycotting is what we do when every level of command above us refuses to do anything about a system that is completely broken and exploitable. The numbers were there from the beginning and even I can admit I was foolish when I stated in my own video essay that “‘Israel’ isn’t going to get an enormous televote score.” That is something I said based on optimism and my own reasoning, before I actually came up with this equation and ran all the numbers. I was proven very wrong and I think I’m not the only one.

In the end, I need to remind us all that this was never about the results, it was never about “making sure ‘Israel’ doesn’t win.” If this were truly about making sure “Israel” didn’t win, then we would all have had to agree on one (1) artist to mass-vote for AND hope the juries liked as well, but that would be literally impossible. Whereas Eurofans could argue “Let’s mass-vote Croatia!” or “Mass-vote Ukraine again,” that is nowhere as easily and streamlined as it is for Zionists, “fake” votes, and “Israeli” fans to just spend all their money on voting for “Hurricane.” So once again: THIS IS NOT ABOUT RESULTS. The numbers sadly reflected “Israel” succeeding in their campaign nearly the entire way, and because they know that Eurovision is a system where everyone from the broadcasters to the fans don’t actually want to do anything that poses a threat to this silly contest, they’ll get the numbers they want. Trying to beat “Israel” at the game of Eurovision is a mathematical impossibility as things currently stand, and if EVERYONE continues to not want to change their behavior (the EBU, the broadcasters, the artists, the news websites, even the fans themselves), then “Israel” will keep playing this game successfully for years to come.

“The Fairest of Them All”

Researched and Written by Beatrice Quinn

Research Data Links:

Eurovision 2024: Deviation Scores

Eurovision 2023: Deviation Scores

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