Fantasy Football Nerd

Your source for fantasy football tips

[fantasyfootballnerd]

Brandon Jacobs: Pick him up

Brandon Jacobs showed us that being 6'4'' and 264 lbs is hard to stop, even at age 31.  Jacobs rushed 22 times for 106 yds and 2 TDs in Thursday night's matchup against the Bears.  He looked like the Brandon Jacobs of old, but there are a couple questions that limit his value going forward:

1) When will David Wilson return?

2) How long can his body hold up?  Remember, he isn't a spring chicken.

He's probably an RB3 going forward and worth a stash.

[fantasyfootballnerd]

Fantasy Football Week 6: Start 'Em, Sit 'Em

In my weekly Start 'Em, Sit 'Em column I list players that are not necessarily must-starts (e.g., Adrian Peterson) or must-sits (e.g., Kevin Kolb).

START - Tony Romo, QB, Cowboys

Romo lit up the Cowboys' stadium last week by throwing for the most yards of any Cowboys' QB in history.  Don't expect a repeat performance, but the Cowboys are going up against a weak Redskins defense that's allowed the 5th most fantasy points to position.  Look for Romo to do his best Peyton Manning impression.

START - Danny Woodhead, RB, Chargers

Woodhead looks like a Pop Warner football player that snuck into the huddle, but boy can the kid run.  Ryan Mathews will be out with a concussion which makes Woodhead the leading back for the Chargers.  Yes, the Chargers are up against a stingy Colts defense, but the fact that Woodhead is one of Rivers' favorite targets more than makes up for that.  Look for Woodhead to continue to prove that being 5'7'' ain't no biggie (pun not intended).

START - Cecil Shorts / Justin Blackmon, WR, Jaguars

Garbage Time.  That will be the source of the Jaguars' fantasy success this week.  The Broncos are expected to manhandle the Jaguars, which means they will be in catch-up mode nearly the entire game.  Pair that desperation with Chad Henne's tendency to throw the deep ball and it's good news for the Jaguars' receiving core.  Shorts and Blackmon will be good plays this week.

START - Rob Gronkowski, TE, Patriots

This prediction is based on Gronkowski actually playing.  He may be a game-time decision so pay close attention if you're planning on starting him.  Let's face it, Gronk is a monster and Brady can't be happier to have him back.  Even if he's not playing a majority of snaps, he'll be in there for the red zone packages and has a good shot to score a touchdown.  Gronk owners have been waiting for this all year long, so go wild!

START - Cleveland Browns, Defense

They are up against the Lions and Calvin Johnson is out.  Not to mention the Browns' defense is arguably a top 10 defense in the NFL.  This Browns-Lions matchup will be a theme of this weeks Start 'Em Sit 'Em.

SIT - Matthew Stafford, QB, Lions

It doesn't look like Calvin Johnson will play this week and, as we saw last week, when Calvin Johnson doesn't play, the offense simply sputters.  The Browns' defense is great and they'll envelop the Lions' very average receivers.

SIT - Reggie Bush, RB, Lions

See Matthew Stafford, above.

SIT - T.Y. Hilton, WR, Colts

He's not on this list just because my opponent had him in our matchup last week…well, maybe he is.  But I just don't see him being a consistent option.  He's a boom-or-bust WR and he went off last week.  I don't expect him to go off this week.  The defense will key in on him more than ever after his explosive performance.

SIT - Coby Fleener, TE, Colts

I think that Coby Fleener can develop into a reliable fantasy TE but he hasn't proven it yet.  Until he does, he's safer on your bench.

SIT - Minnesota Vikings, Defense

They are facing a turnover machine named Cam Newton but they're simply not a good defense.  I expect Newton and the Panthers to bounce back this week and put up a lot of points.

[fantasyfootballnerd]

Week 6 Fantasy Advice: Buy and Sell

BUY - Marques Colston, WR, Saints

Drew Brees, having a monster season, check.  Jimmy Graham, having a monster season, check.  Marques Colston…demoted to water boy status?  Colston has been absent for most of the season, but don't give up hope on him!  Colston has been one of the most consistent WRs in fantasy for a number of years.  Just look at these yard totals: 2010 (1,023, 7 TDs), 2011 (1,143 yards, 8 TDs), 2012 (1,154, 10 TDs).  He will get his TDs and yards, it just hasn't happened yet.  Colston owners are probably desperate at this point so take advantage of their desperation!

BUY - Trent Richardson, RB, Colts

He started the season as a huge disappointment for the Browns and then, in one of the biggest trades in recent memory, he got traded to an upstart Colts team that wants to utilize a power running game.  However, Richardson has failed to perform just yet.  And this past week he got a goal line carry vultured by none other than humpty-dumpty-just-so-plain-mediocre-it-pains-me Donald Brown.  Richardson is still getting a hold of this offense and the Colts will want to get their newest and most promising member of the offense involved soon enough, it's only a matter of time.  Now is the time to buy.

SELL - Chris Johnson, RB, Titans

Chris Johnson has been putting together a mediocre season and has not lived up to his draft position.  And now he has a brutal upcoming schedule against Seahawks, 49ers, Colts among others.  He's not going to be valued any higher than this for a while.

SELL - Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jaguars

The Jaguars are putting together one of the worst seasons in NFL history and MJD is a prisoner of their sheer awfulness.  Not only did they trade away an important part of their O-line a couple weeks ago, they just lost their promising young OT Luke Joeckel for the season.  The bad running situation in Jacksonville is only going to get worse.  Trade him now while you can.

[fantasyfootballnerd]

Week 5 Waiver Wire Pickups

Get ready for Week 5 of football with some key adds from the waiver wire!

Nate Washington, WR, Titans

After 2 huge games in a row, it's hard not to be bullish on Nate Washington.  In Week 3 he posted a 8 rec, 131 yard effort.  And I was thinking, ok, Washington is a guy that is big one week, lousy the next, I'm not buying.  In Week 4 he posted a 4 rec, 105 yard, 2 TD performance.  Wow, just wow.  If you have room on the bench, he worth a stash to see if he can keep this impressive streak going.

It's important to note that Locker is out 4-8 weeks and is being replaced by Ryan Fitzpatrick.  I'm not convinced it will make a very big difference for Washington's fantasy numbers.

Alshon Jeffrey, WR, Bears

He has a ton of physical talent and with defenses focusing on Brandon Marshall and Martellus Bennet, he's going to get a lot of looks.  He had a strong 5 rec, 107 yard, 1 TD performance in Week 4 and the Bears are throwing a lot this year.

Michael Floyd, WR, Cardinals

Decent chance he's owned in your league, but Michael Floyd is emerging as the #2 in Arizona.  Andre Roberts has had a series of disappointing games while Floyd has blossomed.  Good 5 rec, 87 yard effort in Week 4.  Now if only the Cardinals could give Palmer more than 2 seconds to throw...

Danny Woodhead, RB, Chargers

Rivers is passing a ton and Woodhead is seeing a lot of snaps.  Ryan Mathews has proven that he's as electrifying as a block of concrete, so Woodhead is going to be more involved in the offense going forward.  He's an absolute must add in PPR formats because of the numbers of receptions he gets.  In Week 4 he had 32 yards rushing and 5 rec for 54 yards and 2 TDs.

Coby Fleener, TE, Colts

Pundits have been predicting it all season, but it finally happened, Coby Fleener had his long-awaited coming-out party.  5 rec, 77 yards and 1 TD.  Granted, it was against the Jaguars, who are basically a dysfunctional CFL team playing in the NFL, but it was a big game and I think he will continue this solid production throughout the season.  With Dwayne Allen out, Fleener is the guy.  He's borderline TE1 material.

[fantasyfootballnerd]

Breaking Fantasy News: Trent Richardson shipped to Colts, pick up Willis McGahee

Trent Richardson has been shipped to the Colts for a first round pick.  Pick up Willis McGahee immediately!

The Browns are working out Willis McGahee right now and he would be the most trustworthy RB on the depth chart.  The other contenders are Bobby Rainey and Chris Ogbonnaya.  Bobby Rainey has not recorded a run in the NFL and Chris Ogbonnaya has been a backup RB in the NFL.  I would not rely on either as the long-term option.

[fantasyfootballnerd]

Week 3 Waiver Wire Pickups

Injuries were the name of the game in Week 2 of fantasy football and they opened up a lot of room for new stars to emerge.  So let's dive right into it!

Eddie Royal, WR, Chargers

Ok, I admit, I was not a believer after his Week 1 performance.  This guy has let me down too many times.  After a Week 2 performance of 8 targets, 7 receptions, 90 yards and 3 TDs, you would have to be crazy not to take a chance on him.  On top of it, Malcom Floyd is out with a neck injury.  Eddie Royal is simply Rivers' favorite target in a much-improved Chargers offense.

James Starks, RB, Packers

James Starks is a fantasy journeyman.  He's one of those guys that manages to get dropped and added continuously throughout the season.  One minute he's on your team and the next he's on your opponents' team.  He was mostly forgotten this year in fantasy because Eddie Lacy is the RB that the Packers have been waiting for!  Oh, wait, Eddie Lacy has a concussion?  Crap.  Enter James Starks.  Starks had a stellar game in Week 2 with 132 yards and 1 TD.  As long as Lacy is out, he's the guy in Packers' backfield.  Keep a close eye on the injury news for Lacy because if he's back in the lineup, Starks' value diminishes immensely.

DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Texans

This kid was the 2nd WR selected in the 2013 draft and he showed us why in Week 2.  Hopkins had a monster game with 117 yards and 1 TD on 7 receptions.  He's only a rookie and plays opposite of Andre Johnson so he can't be counted on week-to-week, but if he's available in your league, grab him.  He has tremendous potential and could develop into a more consistent player as the season progresses.

Bernard Pierce, RB, Ravens

It's quite simple.  Ray Rice is injured and Bernard Pierce is his very talented backup.  Rice may miss Week 3, in which case Pierce is a fantastic play.  Pierce has done well when given play time so he's also worth holding onto to see what happens to the Rice-Pierce split down the road.

Jacquizz Rodgers, RB, Falcons

Same situation as Pierce.  Steven Jackson, top dog of the Falcons, went down with an injury and Rodgers is the guy taking his place.  However, it doesn't sound as if Jackson's injuring is all that serious and he could return in Week 3.  Add if you have the space, and especially if you're a Steven Jackson owner.

Charles Clay, TE, Dolphins

TE is extremely deep this year, so this is more of an alert.  Charles Clay had 5 receptions for 109 yards and 1 rushing TD in Week 2.  He also had 5 receptions for 54 yards in Week 1.  If you're in a 2 TE league, he's worth a look.  Otherwise, keep an eye out on him for his production down the line.

[fantasyfootballnerd]

Start 'Em or Sit 'Em: Week 2

And here we are after disappointing Week 1 performances by a bunch of fantasy studs.  But don't give up hope yet!  Some of these guys are destined for huge bounce back games.

QB - Start 'Em

Cam Newton - Superman underwhelmed in Week 1 against a stout Seahawks defense.  However in Week 2, he gets a Buffalo defense that is weak against the run and mediocre against the pass.  Expect big things.

RB - Start 'Em

DeAngelo Williams - See Cam Newton.  Weak run defense = fantasy points for Williams.

Darren McFadden - Going up against an average Jags defense and he's really the Raiders best offensive option.  I expect the defense to focus on containing Pryor, which may open up some nice RB screens.  And, hey, he's healthy!

WR - Start 'Em

Pierre Garcon - This is the week that Garcon breaks out.  Green Bay surrendered 404 yards passing to the 49ers last week and I expect RG3 to feel more comfortable on the field this week than last.  Expect Garcon to lean on his #1 receiver.

Stevie Johnson - Carolina's run defense is great and Buffalo will be forced to pass.  Johnson is by far the most talented receiver on the team and I anticipate that EJ Manuel looks in his direction frequently.

TE - Start 'Em

Brandon Myers - Denver is weak against the TE position and the Giants are going to rely on the pass because of David Wilson's fumblitis.

QB - Sit 'Em

Tony Romo - This is probably the riskiest call in this post. With Romo and Bryant recovering from injuries and the Chiefs showing a great defensive effort last week (yes, I know it was against the Jags), I'm not expecting huge things this week.

RB - Sit 'Em

David Wilson - Coughlin does not trust him and he's up against a tough Broncos defense.  Because he's the best RB the Giants have by far, I expect him to play a lot of snaps, but I expect the Giants to rely on Eli's arm rather than Wilson's legs.

Ahmad Bradshaw - I don't care if Vick Ballard was just ruled out with an injury.  Miami has a sneaky good run defense and I think the Colts are going to be forced to pass.  Start with caution.

WR - Sit 'Em

Torrey Smith - Joe Haden is one of the best corners in the league and Torrey Smith is still not a reliable WR.  Haden completely shut down Mike Wallace last week and I expect him to do the same to Smith this week.

Mike Wallace - This guy cannot be trusted until he turns in his first big game.  Defenses will continue to give him more attention than anyone else on the field.  That combined with a lack of chemistry with Tannehill spells disaster.

TE - Sit 'Em

Kyle Rudolph - I just don't trust this guy.  He relies on touchdowns so it's a gamble every week.  Chicago allowed 82 yards by Bengal's TEs last week, but the Bengal's have A.J. Green to distract the defense.  The Vikings have...Jerome Simpson?

[fantasyfootballnerd]

Sleeper Pick of the Week: Aaron Dobson has huge upside

Aaron Dobson is only owned in 17% of Yahoo leagues despite being the potential #2 receiver for the Patriots (while Amendola and Gronkowski are out with injuries).

Most are shying away from Dobson because the preseason hype surrounding Kenbrell Thompkins, who is currently owned in 71% of Yahoo leagues.

Let's take a look at their stats from Week 2:

Aaron Dobson: 10 Targets, 3 Receptions, 56 Yards, 1 TD

Kenbrell Thompkins: 7 Targets, 2 Receptions, 47 Yards

Dobson was targeted more than Thompkins and finished with more yards.  This is despite missing the first game of the season.  Dobson is the more physically gifted receiver; there's a reason he was chosen in Round 2 of the draft and Thompkins went undrafted.

Don't be the guy that misses out on Dobson.  By the end of the season he will overtake Thompkins in the depth chart and be an important part of the Patriots' offense.

**Sleeper is defined as being owned in less than 30% of Yahoo fantasy leagues