Hi, back after a long time with the first of a series of fantasy-sabermetrics stuff celebrating the fantasy season just gone (2 championships for me, but I'll get to that) and the new one juuustt 5 and a half months away.
Let's start with a topic you should have stumbled upon, if you are into baseball and stats: the power of platooning.
Platoon, not the movie
This is usually used with hitters: basically, you mix a guy who is good against right handed pitchers but can't hit a lick against lefties and split his playing time with a guy who is his opposite, good against lefties, awful against righties. Believe it or not, sometimes you come up with a freak who is much more than your average batter, check this article on fangraphs, but there are many on the internet. And don't think it is just fantasy stuff, the Oakland A's, among others, use extensively platooning in the real world.
But today we are talking about pitchers: first, take a look at this line.
But anyway, how could you do better? Well, enter Saberstein, the pitcher you don't know: here is his line.
"What? 19 wins, one k per inning, era under 3 and whip just over 1 and I don't know this guy?"
Sorry, dude, but you CAN'T know him, because HE doesn't exist, and HE is not just one pitcher.
"There's more than one of everything", as Fringe fans could remember, and in fact, this pitcher is the sum of three.
The power of three
This is a case of pitchers' platooning at its best, and the great thing about it, is these 3 pitchers went totally undrafted in your league and will again next april.
Meet Bryan Shaw, Drew Smyly and Dane de la Rosa, your middle relief aces.
Part of a three headed modern Sabermetric Frankenstein, these guys are the prototype of the pitcher that can win you a league with all the other dudes not knowing what hit them.
Of course, it is not easy to pick them, but they have at least one thing in common: mostly, they enter the game in the 6th or 7th inning, in the thick of the action, when many starters leave the game.
Just ask Neal Cotts of the Rangers, 8 wins in relief of, among others, Yu Darvish. The japanese phenom often left the game after 6 innings because of high pitch counts, many times with the game tied.
Then, just in the next inning, the offense clicked and made a winner of Cotts, or of Vin Mazzaro of the Pirates, or Craig Stammen of the Nationals, 23 wins among them.
It is not a fluke
It is not just a math fluke, I assure you: with rare exceptions (Cotts being one, with an unreal 1.11 era and almost 90% of batters stranded), all these guys pitched in line with their expected era and their previous season stats, with a league average percentage of batters stranded.
They were different only because they had the opportunity to pitch in the deciding 6th and 7th inning, not in the 8th, for instance, when games are already decided and the coincidental win can occur after a blown hold becomes a win for a late rally in the 9th inning.
Don't think these pitchers are rare, also: there were 47 pitchers this past season that won at least 4 games without starting one and saving a maximum of 3 games (I purposely removed designated closers from this research).
So, next spring, with the first exhibition games, don't focus on wins and saves, but check who gets the nod when the starting pitcher is due for the day: they could be your hidden treasure to a championship trophy.
The strange case of Felix Hernandez and the 3 unearned runs
Felix Hernandez has been a mess of lately, destroying my shining ERA and putting me in danger of losing a fantasy league I am in.
Still, in my opinion, he has also been victim of excessive zeal by the guys at Elias Sports Bureau and by Joe Torre and his office, resulting in an added 3 earned runs to his recent miscues.
On his bad outing versus the Blue Jays last august 6th, King Felix left the field after 5 innings, having allowed what he and the official scorer thought were 3 runs.
But a series of odd circumstances happened in the fourth inning: here they are, in the initial reconstruction of events:
- Adam Lind hit a grounder to Seattle's third baseman Seager, who missed the throw at first, allowing Lind to reach base on an error;
- Colby Rasmus then followed with a ground ball to second base that hit Lind. Under Major league rules, Lind was called out and Rasmus was awarded a base hit. The key word here is "awarded".
- Brett Lawrie then hit a grounder between third and short that shortstop Brad Miller backhanded. Miller tried to force Rasmus at second but the throw went into right field, with Rasmus advancing to third.
Determining that the throw would not have beaten Rasmus anyway, the official scorer ruled it a hit and charged an error to Miller.
- Lawrie then stole second, and Josh Thole struck out.
But then, some pious zealot at Elias (who surely has not Fernandez on his fantasy team) claimed that because Rasmus was awarded a hit on the ball that struck Lind, the play could not be counted as what should have been the second out of the inning, and so put the original scoring decision under review.
He read it like this:
- Lind out on the error.
- Rasmus is not the second out anymore, by rule.
- Lawrie is safe at first, Rasmus on third via error, but that error won't count, as we'll see in a moment.
- Lawrie steals second safely.
- Thole strikes out. Two outs and an error pending.
- Bonifacio hits a double, so Rasmus would have scored anyway, error or not (the error was said to allow Rasmus from second to third base, so he would be on second anyway). Two outs and the pending error doesn't count.
- Reyes singles home Bonifacio, then is caught stealing. Three outs, three EARNED runs.
The series of unfortunate events were presented to the office of Joe Torre, and he ruled against Fernandez, charging him and his fantasy owners an added weight of 3 runs.
Now, for the definition of earned run:
Via baseball-reference.com:
"An earned run is a run that is ruled by the official scorer to have resulted exclusively from actions by the batting team and not because of errors by the defense. When the fielding team makes an error or passed ball, the scorer is supposed to "reconstruct" the inning assuming that the defensive miscue did not occur. Only runs that would have scored barring the miscue are considered earned; all others are considered to be unearned".
On the official major league baseball rules book:
10.16 Earned Runs And Runs Allowed
"An earned run is a run for which a pitcher is held accountable. In determining earned runs, the official scorer shall reconstruct the inning without the errors (which exclude catcher's interference) and passed balls, giving the benefit of the doubt always to the pitcher in determining which bases would have been reached by runners had there been errorless play."
I urge you to read the passage "giving the benefit of the doubt always to the pitcher..": in this case, the benefit of the doubt was clearly against the pitcher, given the original reconstruction made much more sense than the second one.
There is still a chance for Felix, though: he appealed the original scoring decision, the one on Miller's throw to second base, which said that, even if the throw had been on target, it wouldn't have beaten Rasmus for the out at second.Â
If it is ruled, instead, that a good throw would have beaten Rasmus and thus the play was an error all the way, that would have been a "legitimate" error, Rasmus being the second out, and the three runs would become unearned again, giving the benefit of the doubt and a break to the pitcher and his fantasy owners.
With those 3 runs washed from his criminal record, Hernandez's ERA would drop from 2.97 to 2.83, while my team's ERA would drop from 3.19 to 3.17. And this, my friends, may be the difference between a second place and a championship.
I am learning new truths of life, from my journey in fantasy baseball, and one that struck me is this: some players hate you.
I mean, they have true feelings of loath and despise for your efforts to win your league, after you spent so many hours crafting your team together,piece by piece.
Case in point? Alfonso Soriano, so much so that I labeled the whole situation after the name of this motherf.. ahemm.. veteran player.
I got Soriano for a team of mine sometime at the beginning of july, and after a month of turmoil, I cut him for good last sunday.
Take a look at this graph I made (pretty cool, uh..?), it shows his batting average, his homerun rate per 100 at bats, and his rbis and runs scored, again normalized per 100 at bats, so I can compare different data samples:
This is almost ridiculous, in the 10 days he wasn't on my roster (breaking havoc at the tune of .117), he batted .436, with unreal power numbers: 17.95 homeruns per 100 at bats, 33.33 rbis, 35.90 runs per 100.
Those numbers translate to 108 homeruns, 200 rbis and 215 runs on a 600 at bats season. There were 4 days, from july 6th through 9th, in which I benched and put him on waivers, and he was 8 of 15, with 5 dingers, 8 rbis and 8 runs. I got him back, and he promptly began to miss everything, just to regain his sight on july 28th: the moment he got word that I had benched him, he went 4 of 5 with a homerun, 3 rbis and 2 runs.
From there, he went south, 'til I finally released him for good.
On sunday, in the first at bat since I cut him again, he smacked a homerun..
Another case of sorianism is Carlos Santana: I love the guy, I have him in a couple of leagues and traded for him in a third one.
But, man, look at how badly he performed for me since the trade:
Two different players: a Joe Mauer with good power when he wasn't on my team, a below replacement player with no pop when he put my uniform on. Obviously, I cut him, and obviously he started producing again (though he is .171 in august, with a .502 ops).
Closing on a higher note, I must say I picked a player who made the opposite of Soriano, catching fire when he began playing for my team after a very disappointing season. That guy is Jason Heyward:
The homeruns aren't still there, but his batting average had a huge spike, from .220 to .385, and his rbis and runs production surged: this is Heyward "even years", not his weak "odd years" cousin.
While searching cards for the difficult task of completing the 2010 Topps National Chicle product (short printed included), I noticed the chrome parallels of 50 of those cards, numbered to 499, and went for them.
It was not a tough assignment, I must say, and I got the bulk of them on ebay and comc.com, and from the latter came the last 2 cards, Jeter and Pujols.
Going into details:
Overall look (4 stars out of 5)
They are chrome, so they obviously shine, and that gives a nice touch to the painted base set cards. I also love, but this goes for the base set, too, that the back of the cards replicates the "words of wisdom" template so characteristic on the original Diamond stars set.
Completion hitches (1.5 stars out of 5)
Really no hassles, here, thanks to that great source for singles that comc.com is.
Final thoughts
I am really close to complete the base set of this product, with 2 of the 3 remaining cards on the way, and this was an easy, collateral
project to work on in the process. Really nice set, I'd like to see more of these ideas implemented.
"I truly believe in my heart and I would bet my life that this substance never entered my body at any point" (R.Braun)
Amidst the flurry of news, comments, analysis surfaced in the wake of the ignominious Ryan Braun's suspension, I found this article by Jon Paul Morosi at foxsports.com to be the one that best describes the misery of the fraud perpetrated by Braun to the world of baseball.
Braun, writes Morosi, with his 65 games season-ending suspension "proved himself as one of the most cravenly selfish figures" in American professional sports. He betrayed the faith of his team, his teammates, his employer, the fans buying his shirts and the tickets to see him play. He accused of subterfuge, knowing to lie, the urine sample collector who had him busted a first time in an October 2011 drug test. He caused the firing of the arbitrator who ruled in his favor on a procedural technicality in February 2012.
As a final touch of "criminal mastermind", he decided to take the suspension immediately, without a fight, for 2 reasons: a) he was presented with overwhelming evidence of his wrongdoing and understood there were no broken seals, this time; b) he used his calculator and figured out he could save 600k dollars taking the axe now.
Yes, because next year his salary will go from 8.5 million dollars to 10 million dollars: so, 65 games without pay in this season sums to 3,410,494 dollars, while next year, the total would be 4,012,346, or a 601,852 dollars more.
He will then proceed to take this forced vacation and come back to his millionaire life next april, the world a happy place to be.
When I had the chance, last march, I picked him with my first overall choice in 2 leagues: I could have gotten Miguel Cabrera with those
picks, but I trusted him and thought that, pound per pound, he could bring more value than Miggy. Turns out I was wrong, but he had such
a lousy season, with so many real and fabricated diseases, I won't have many troubles finding a replacement for his bat. I just hope he will have troubles with his conscience, and I hope he'll get the worst of times playing away from Miller park next year, not that the Brewers fans have any reason to cheer this clown at home.
"I have always taken tremendous pride in my image and my reputation in being a role model and handling myself the right way and doing things the right way" (R.Braun)
And they are off.. again! The second half of the season
With that agony called "all star break" come and gone (but the last time of Mariano was really unforgettable), it's time to get ready for the second half of the season (technically, it should be called the last 3/7th of the season, but I guess it wouldn't stick).
So, where are you with your fantasy teams? Running ahead, in contention, or searching for that elusive bottle of wine in the cellar of your division?
Well, this is where I am, or at least where my 3 teams in Yahoo rotisserie leagues are (I also have 3 teams in head to head leagues, but really can't get to be emotionally engaged in them, it's a formula more suited for football, I think).
The team that wouldn't die: Wallbangers
My first team drafted this year, so the one where I invested more in terms of analysis and excel sheets, playing in "The wax fantastic championship". And boy, did this team behave poorly, at least 'til July, with only Mauer, Longoria and the surprising Jean Segura (20th round pick, oh yeah..) having good numbers, while the pitching rotation was a complete mess. I found myself second to last with more than 30 points behind the leader.
Then.. this guy entered beast mode:
Jason Kipnis began tearing apart baseballs, becoming the best second baseman in the game, right when another guy, a cuban player named Yasiel Puig entered the stage: for a guy picked in the 21st round of the draft, he had a nice production, I should say.
And with my aces (Price, Sale, Jose Fernandez) finally enjoying a stretch of dominance, with Mauer still solid as a rock, Josh Donaldson having a career year, I found myself climbing up the rankings, and ended the first half in second place, just 2 points behind the first place.
Where I will be at the end of september
The team that shouldn't fail: Hawkeyes
Read the lineup of this team, playing in "The Big League": Wieters, Votto, Pedroia, Machado, Everth Cabrera, Carlos Gomez, Puig, Soriano, Wil Myers, Stanton (Alex Gordon and Werth on the bench). These guys can hit for average AND for power, and they have speed on the bases.
And the rotation? Sale, Harvey, Lee, Lackey, Latos.. everyone of them the ace or second banana in their staff.. so, what's dragging me back in my race towards the championship? Well.. closers, dudes, here's what.
On draft day, with the best relievers already gone, I picked Putz, Broxton (don't ask, I don't remember why..) and Andrew Bailey. I looked smart when Bailey was promoted to closer in the Red Sox bullpen, but then all went south: Putz was hurt and demoted, Bailey followed suit, and Broxton.. don't ask, I don't remember.
Where I will be at the end of september
In my pursue of saves, I stocked my pitching staff with potential closers: Ziegler has already emerged as the closer of the 11th hour in Arizona, and if the Cubs trade Gregg, I have the 2 guys behind him. Everything, to avoid the last place in saves and ruin my chances. But when I look at that lineup, I can't help but think that I can eventually emerge winner in this league.
The whiffers: Mad penguins
This was the last team drafted, and after picking Braun with the number 2 overall (ouch..) and Longoria in the second round, I decided to load my pitching: King Felix with the 3rd round pick, Darvish in the 5th, Scherzer in the 7th, Holland and Grilli to anchor my relief staff in the 12th and 13th round, Buchholz in the 22nd(!)
The result of my draft choices is a team that is dominating in strikeouts and can win all the 5 pitching categories, so where I will be at the end of the season is about hitting.
Where I will be at the end of september
Homeruns (10th place) and batting average (8th) are hampering my race, but I have Domonic Brown (20th round selection) riding a career season, Ryan Braun, Puig (via a trade, Longoria for David Wright AND Puig) in the lineup. Maybe Freddie Freeman will be the most important piece of the jigsaw, if he can substain his average and add some power, I can be in the front line for the championship.
Final thoughts
I am first or second in all these leagues, and I feel I can play for the championship in all of them: as always, much will depend on players' health and lucky substitutions. Bottom line: at least one, better two, but three is not "mission impossible".
The impossible task: 1887 Allen and Ginter N9 Flags of all nations
I have occasional bursts of interest for some kind of cards, followed by periods in which said interest dramatically lowers, sometimes to disappear, some other times to come back after another stint of time.
The latter case is true for the 1887 Allen & Ginter set labeled "Flags of all nations", N9 for catalogation purposes, a set of 48 cards depicting, guess what?, flags of nations and weird territories (Siam, United states of Colombia?) of the last decades of the 19th century.
and you know us collectors, if you know you can't complete a set, you shouldn't embark in the task in the first place.
But who knows? Maybe if I can put together the first 45-46 cards, I could rent a kidney and go for the last 3..
In the meantime, let me buy some cheap 2012 A&G relic cards to frame the last 2 cards I bought..
Complete set - 2012 Topps Museum Canvas collection
Finally, the postman rang (twice, I think), and a year long journey has come to an end: I give you the complete, 48 cards 2012 Topps Museum Canvas collection:
It's been fun, it's been hard to complete, but not that hard, and this is the key point for a collection: you should not be able to complete it in a day, but it should not take a deep pocket and years, either.
It was a little harder for me, living in Italy, since some cards I needed were owned by guys who would not ship outside the USA (why?..), but in the end, I made it. Now, for the details:
Overall look (4.5 stars out of 5)
I love painted cards and I love hall of famers, so this set was a no brainer for me, with 35 retired superstars and 13 active players. With rare misses, that I would not cite here, most of the cards are really well painted, like this Wade Boggs:
In this first edition, artists felt some way compelled to stay in the boundaries of the jagged frame, while in the 2013 installment, they experimented with "outside the box" themes and got better results, but this is the only blemish in this beautiful set, which has some gems like this Lou Gehrig:
Completion hitches (3.5 stars out of 5)
Half a point harder for me, living abroad: basically, I got the bulk of this collection on ebay, turning to comc.com for some rarer cards. Two cards, though, were really hard to find: first, Eddie Mathews:
I found it one on the beckett.com marketplace, but the guy wouldn't ship it to Italy, so I asked mr. nice guy Chris from cardsinfinity.com to be a proxy for me: I had the card shipped to his shop and he sent it to me with a box of other cards I bought from him. Thank you man!
I had other kind of troubles with the 48th and last card, the wonder boy Mickey Mantle:
I bought it on a beckett.com shop at the end of march, but as we speak I have not received it yet (by the way, this is not the first "lost shipment" I suffered from them, and I think I wouldn't turn to their sellers anymore..). Luckily, an ebay auction surfaced, I bought it again, and it finally arrived last day, making my collection complete.
Final thoughts
It was a great experience, I am really happy with this set, so much so that I dove immediately in the 2013 version, and I have already 25 of the 35 cards making the set. What makes this set special is also its scarcity: with just a card in each box of Museum, priced at about 200$, and with some cards almost unavailable on the market, I think there are really few complete sets, and I happily own one of them.
Finally, the 2 boxes of Archives I bought have arrived (thanks, USPS..) and I busted them, discovering inside 2 big hits and enjoying the fun of a very well designed concept.
Design (4 out of 5)
The base set (200 cards) highlight 4 iconic Topps sets from the past, 1972, 1982, 1985 and 1990. The best, in my opinion, is the super classic 1972:
1982 is close second, there are some cards here where you could almost think the facsimile autograph is real:
Inserts/parallels (3.5 out of 5)
I got 9 "mini tall boys" and 12 all stars on the 1983 design, then I found 2 MVPs for the "gallery of heroes" insert set, Buster Posey and Miguel Cabrera:
Yogi Berra, Joe Mauer, R.A. Dickey and Jurickson Profar were my 4 gold parallels, numbered to 199:
I also got 2 "triumvirate cards", Miguel Cabrera and Derek Jeter, 6 "1969 4 in 1 stickers" and 2 "1972 basketball", CC Sabathia and Prince Fielder.
Autographs (4 out of 5)
Three of my four guaranteed autographs were not super sexy, I would say they are average with the checklist:
Mickey Tettleton, Kent Hrbek and Dennis Boyd may be "fan favorites", but they don't scream "greatness".. anyway, the signatures, all on card, are bold and fit well in the design.
The fourth autograph, instead, was much better and the first big hit of these 2 boxes:
A cool Juan Marichal autograph on a framed 1973 mini card, numbered to only 25, I just hope the redemption won't be a pain in the... like, for instance, the 2012 Gypsy queen auto of Eric Hosmer still pending after more than a year..
Extra hit (4.5 out of 5)
For the first time ever I found a one of one inside a box:
I found the magenta printing plate used to manufacture the CC Sabathia card, pretty cool..
This is the fourth "one of one" of my collection, the first ever found in a box and not bought on the secondary market: it's not a "true" one of one card, but still, I am happy to have it.
Box value (4 out of 5)
This is not a product made for hit chasers, but for fans of the era when the hobby was about having fun busting some waxes, so it reached its scope even before I had those 2 nice extra hits. Money well spent.
Bottom line
I hope this product has success and is back next year: it's fun and hits all the right spots with me. The only improvement I could suggest is about the autographs, I can dig the "fan favorites" thing, but it would be nice to see more "top tier" guys signing these cards.
Final score: 78 out of 100.
Roto baseball - week 11: the Adam Dunn pendulum swings to new heights
Remember when I made fun of this guy and his pendulum-like weeks, one week putting up great numbers, the next (maybe the next 2 or 3, in my defense) being the worst in the Leagues?
Well, get this: this week, Adam Dunn posted a .389/.455/1.111 triple line, good for a 1.566 ops, with 4 homeruns and 8 rbis.
Matt Joyce and Evan Longoria (who were both in my team 8 days ago, before I traded away Longo and released Joyce to make room for Puig, who has not had an homerun since) had 4 homers, too, probably delaying the arrival in the Majors of Wil Myers.
Brandon Phillips had a strange week, producing 10 rbis while batting only .219, Carlos Gonzalez had another MVP week, with 9 rbis and a 1.367 ops. Giancarlo Stanton is finally healthy and beginning to smash homeruns: he had 2, with 7 rbis and an ops above 1.200.
Carlos Gomez regained the WAR throne, with 4.3 wins above replacement already, Chris Davis is the best in clutch situations, with 3.78 WPA. More on this stat in the next days in a new "sabermetric" twist.
You can run, but you can't hide
B.J. Upton had a 2 homerun game, and left the last place in batting average to Ike Davis. Travis Hafner maybe is back to planet Earth for good (or bad), hitless in 19 at bats, and the joyride could be over for Domonic Brown, too: 2 for 21 for the former king of homeruns. Paul Goldschmidt had an uncharacteristic bad week, hitting .120, and the triple crown himself Miguel Cabrera spent a week in the Mendoza line club, together with Dustin Pedroia, Michael Bourn and Josh Hamilton, among others. The heat has come, and it may reshuffle your leagues (unless, of course, you are playing with 4 DL and waiting for Ryan Braun to pick up your team..).
Climbing up on Solsbury Hill
Yovani Gallardo leads a pack of 6 not so well known pitchers with 2 wins this week: he didn't surrender a run and had 9 k's, while Edwin Jackson had a 1.38 ERA, but with 15 whiffs.
King Felix Hernandez also had 15 strikeouts in 2 starts, while allowing only one run:
Chris Sale needed only a start to rack 14 strikeouts, but not only he didn't win: he suffered a loss because of a couple of defensive mistakes. He is the poster boy of the advanced metric junkies, who say with good reason that wins are a old, wrong way to judge a pitcher's performance.
Take Yu Darvish: he is winless in his last 5 outings, but in those games he lowered his ERA from 2.97 to 2.64, while striking out 41 in 34.2 innings (10.64 k/9) with a whip of 0.98. These are Cy Young numbers, but he had absolutely nothing to show in the win column, while in the same period, Bartolo Colon awarded his fantasy owners with 5 wins..
At least, Adam Wainwright, the first pitcher to 10 wins, has astounding numbers to prove his worth: 2.18 ERA, 8.47 k/9, 1.01 whip.
Max Scherzer, anyway, is doing better: 10.56 k/9, 0.87 whip. His 3.19 ERA should be much better.
Clayton Kershaw is another example of the "I can only get that far, guys" pitchers: in 2 starts, he had 13 k's and allowed only 2 runs (1.29 ERA) with a 1.00 whip. His teammates couldn't show him any love, though, and so he didn't get a win.
Jim Johnson rebounded from a bad period and was a perfect 4 in saves this week, Glen Perkins didn't allow a single batter in base in his 3 saves.
Wainwright is also the WAR pacesetter, with 4.0, with his teammate Mujica leading in the WPA stat, with 3.08.
Ground control to major Matt
Matt Moore collapsed, showing the reason why advanced stats usually don't lie and "regression to the mean" is not a myth. He had a 11.32 ERA in two starts, with an ugly .413 avg allowed to go a 2.32 whip. C.C. Sabathia was unusually wild in his start, surrendering 6 runs in 6 innings, but at least he was "punished for his sins", while Lance Lynn got away with a win (see the point?) and no losses after giving away 11 runs in 11 innings pitched in 2 starts.
R.A. Dickey was another "bad ERA, still a winner", but you can't win leagues with 6.75 ERAs, at least in Fantasyland.
Andrew Bailey is not a lock since returning from his last injury: he blew a save opportunity and barely escaped another. A new spin in the Boston closer role may happen soon. Luke Gregerson was so bad in the role, San Diego had to hurry Huston Street back from his DL stint.
The worst of the bunch, the over hyped, over paid "Papa grande" Valverde blew a save chance: the good news for Detroit is that Papelbon could be available at the trade deadline, with Philadelphia out of contention in the NL East. He could be the last piece missing in a World series team.
Roto baseball - week 10: a cuban storm hits the majors
Unless you spent last week trekking on the Himalayan peaks, you should have heard the name Yasiel Puig:
The cuban prospect finally got his call in the big show, and boy, did he shine under the spotlight: 4 homeruns, 10 rbis, .435 avg., 1.458 ops in his first 6 games with the Dodgers, and an energetic boost to Dodgers nation that you could say all Dodgers fans were on something this week (oh, wait.. no, that's anothery story..). Anyway, I don't think Puig will be sent back to the minors anytime soon..
BUT, he wasn't the fantasy hero of the week, because Domonic Brown started June the way he finished May, crushing the ball:
Howie Kendrick was also astounding, with 15 hits and a .625 avg., while Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki are probably the best 3-4 combo in the Leagues now: 6 homeruns and 15 rbis for them, to keep the Rockies in contention. Paul Goldschmidt had yet another quiet MVP week, with his league leading 13 rbis. Everth Cabrera added 9 steals to his collection and is sailing away with the stolen bases title, unless.. you know, THAT other thing..
Miguel Cabrera is now officially also the WAR king, with 3.6 wins above replacement. Paul Goldschmidt leads the Win probability added category, with 3.67.
Why are you looking at me?
60 players "qualified" for the Mendoza line club this week, the worst being Nick Swisher, with a gaudy 0 for 23. Starlin Castro was slightly less tremendous, with 1 for 17. Ryan Zimmerman, Jose Bautista, Adam Jones, Robinson Cano were other all-stars with a batting average under .150.
B.J. Upton batted .190, "elevating" his major league worst avg. to .158, Adam Dunn had 5 hits, 2 of which homeruns, to sit now at a gorgeous .163.
Starlin Marte batted .190 and was caught stealing 3 times out of 5: maybe it's time to teach some plate discipline to the young gun.
Hot pitchers
Clay Buchholz won 2 starts to reach 9 for the year and match Patrick Corbin and Adam Wainwright.
The newly found Boston ace lowered his already astounding numbers, with a .195 avg./0.86 whip week, but his ERA was 1.54, while Kris Medlen's was exactly 0.00 in his 2 wins. Jeremy Hellickson and Jarrod Parker also won 2 games. Cliff Lee fanned 20 batters but had just one win to show, C.J. Wilson and Yu Darvish had 14 and 13 k's, but no wins as a reward.
The japanese ace last won a game on May 16th, Matt Harvey reached his fourth consecutive no-decision, eigth in the last 10 games: his 5-0 record is vastly unlucky.
Clay Buchholz has the best ERA so far in the season, with 1.71, Hisashi Iwakuma leads the WHIP stat with 0.83. Yu Darvish is the strikeout king, with 118. Adam Wainwright is the WAR leader, with 3.8 already, his teammate Edward Mujica is the best in high leverage situations, with 3.00 in WPA.
Ok son, we'll get that from here for you
Edinson Volquez lasted 7.1 innings in two starts, with 13 earned runs: incredibly, he avoided losses in both games, but he took the lead in worst season ERA, with 6.33. Trevor Cahill, instead, took the loss in both his ugly starts, allowing 13 in 8.2 innings pitched.
Dan Haren and Justin Masterson were other highly touted pitchers with an ERA around 10.00. Ian Kennedy lasted 4 innings, allowing 10 runs: that's a 22.50 ERA for those you wondering.
Casey Janssen's blown save against the Rangers opened the doors to the unbelievable 18 innings marathon of Toronto.
The second month of the season is in the books, the first one third of games has been played, and while some are playing great baseball, other players are terribly broken. So, let's crown the best and cut some slack to the worst, at least for this monthly review.
Player of the month
Really, it was closer than one would think, but Miguel Cabrera has to get the prize:
The guy is having a legendary season, en route to another triple crown. His numbers in may say .372/.445/.761, but he gets the upper hand on the next guy because of his 12 homeruns and 32 rbis.
And "the next guy" would be Chris Davis:
Notable producers
Domonic Brown has finally arrived, at least in the power department: his 12 round-trippers in the month equal Cabrera: too bad, he has zero walks, so his obp is a feeble .295, while his ops is a rowdy .695. His 25 rbis are third best, behind the usual Miggy and Edwin Encarnacion, who produced 26.
Joey Votto is spending half of his adult life on a base (.492 obp), so it's not accidental that he scored the most points in the month (27).
Marco Scutaro was just slightly worse, but he led the leagues in batting average (.420). Everth Cabrera is still the road-runner in charge, with 12 stolen bases, Jacoby Ellsbury couldn't top him, despite stealing 5 in a single game.
Manny Machado (13 doubles, .350 avg) and Paul Goldschmidt (.375/.436/.716) have officially become all-stars.
Carlos Gomez is still the WAR king, with 3.3 wins above replacement, Chris Davis leads the win probability added (WPA) category, with 3.37, where Shin Soo Choo is second with 2.68.
Team of the month
Joe Mauer is the catcher, with an ops above 1.000, with Yadier Molina and Buster Posey deserving credit, too. Chris Davis is our first baseman, but you couldn't go wrong with Votto or Goldschmidt, either.
Kelly Johnson gets the starting spot at second, with a fantastic power surge: he had 7 homeruns and 25 rbis, good for an ops of 1.034. Miguel Cabrera is obviously the man in third, while Troy Tulowitzki is the guy between second and third, with 6 homers and a triple slash that reads .354/.404/.625.
In the outfield, let's celebrate the return to the gaudy numbers of last year of Mike Trout, 1.029 ops and 8 stolen bases, then let's reward Domonic Brown for his breakthrough month, and finally put Carlos Gonzalez in the last spot: his 8 stolen bases and 8 homeruns would help our team in 2 categories.
Paul Goldschmidt would be terrific as our utility man.
Pitcher of the month
Max Scherzer deserves the spot, because he was outstanding in all his starts, save one, won 4 games and was denied a fifth win just because Jose Valverde had his first collapse of the year.
Scherzer had great peripherals, allowing a batting average of just .141, with a minuscle 0.71 whip and 45 strikeouts to only 11 walks. He had a 3.00 ERA, mostly because a bad game versus Houston, but he was outstanding all over the board.
Cliff Lee is a deserving second:
He also won 4 games, with a .182 avg. allowed, 0.77 whip and only 5 runs allowed, good for an outstanding 1.15 ERA. He struckout 29 batters and gave up just 6 walks.
Notable producers
Patrick Corbin and Jason Vargas were the league leaders in wins, with 5, and the young gun of Arizona had impressive numbers to show: .180 avg., 0.99 whip, 1.53 ERA. Mike Leake won 4 games with an ERA below 2.00, Derek Holland striking out 44. Yu Darvish had 47 k's, but those were good for only 2 wins.
Jason Grilli was once again king of saves, with a perfect 12 out of 12 and a ridiculous .140 avg./0.55 whip. Edward Mujica had actually better numbers in his 10 saves, .122 avg./0.42 whip.
Anibal Sanchez leads the wins above replacement stat, with 3.1, Clayton Kershaw is the best starter in the win probability added, with 2.37, but Mujica is still the best in the category, with 2.70.
Through 2 months of baseball, there wasn't a no-hitter yet.
Are you ready for another trip into memory lane?
Good for you, because this week Topps Archives hits the card shops and the internet, with its mix of new faces on vintage card designs.
The sets picked for the second installment of this product are Topps 1982, 1985, 1990 and an all time fan favorite, 1972.
Speaking of fan favorites, each box will have two autographs of baseball greats of the past, mostly 70's and 80's players: the preliminar checklist has the names of Don Baylor, Mookie Wilson, Dave Parker, Otis Nixon and Matt Williams among others.
Much more collectable will be two insert sets, the Framed autographs 1973 minis, with players like David Wright, Nolan Ryan, Mike Schmidt and Bob Gibson signing on card on the classic 1973 design, mini version, and the 1983 All stars autographs.
This set includes the likes of Cal Ripken jr., Johnny Bench, Tony Gwynn, Buster Posey, all signing cards modeled after the 1983 All-star subset.
Rounding up the autographs section, Topps originals will feature signed cards of players of the past on vintage cards, with the Topps foil stamp:
This release will also pay a tribute to 2 Topps classic designs of other sports, with the Mini tall boys insert modeled after the 1965 Topps football cards, while other players will appear on the 1972 basketball inserts.
Stickers are back, on yet another tribute to the past: 4 players will be featured in each of the 1969 4 in 1 stickers.
Finally, Archives will also feature a bunch of oddities, such as the second coming of Touched by greatness, showcasing on card handprints of great players, while some boxes will have boxloader with signed Topps contracts from the Topps Vault.
Topps has also advertised new additions to the original concept, the most notables being Triumvirate cards and Gallery of heroes.
1998 Stadium club illuminator triumvirate cards are three die-cut cards that once collected will feature 3 players of the same team in a single, oversized card:
Gallery of heroes will feature great players of the past on designs that look like church windows:
And really finally, there will also be place for pop culture: last year there were cards signed by the bad guys of "Karate kid", while this year there are bad guys of the rock and roll: autographs will feature heavy metal
rock stars from the ‘80’s, including Tommy Lee, Sebastian Bach and Dee Snider.
This product will surely be a winner with collectors who were kids in the 80's and 90's, and with everyone who enjoys to bust waxes for the sake of busting waxes, and not for the super hit.
I am totally in, and will let you know what I will find in my 2 boxes.
Roto baseball - week 8: 50 games are not a small size sample anymore
With many teams reaching 50 games played, and the first third of the season around the corner, the sample data are not so much little anymore, and the signals are emerging from the noise of informations.
Bottom line: if your team is 30 games behind first place, it's time to switch to fantasy football already.
With that in mind, it's time to celebrate the winners and losers of this week in baseball.
Oh man, really?
Say you are the MVP AND triple crown winner of the past season, but someone is doubting your accolades.. what are you gonna do to convince them?
Well, what about hitting almost .400 and being in line for 45 homeruns, 180 rbis and 125 runs? Would it be enough or you should begin to steal bases, too?
In line with what may be an historic season, Miguel Cabrera batted .478 this week, with 6 homeruns, 15 rbis and 9 runs. His triple stash was an astounding .478/.571/1.304, good for an ops of 1.876.. The only way of pitching at Cabrera this year seems.. not pitching at him, giving him an intentional walk.
It may not be random that in this week of Cabrerian dominance, Mike Trout had his first "Mike Trout 2012" level of production.
The 2012 AL rookie of the year batted .440 and had an obp of .880, stealing 4 bases and scoring 10 runs. He is the driving force behind the Angels' resurgence of lately.
Other big names had a great week: Jose Bautista (.522 avg), Joey Votto (.538 obp), Buster Posey (.429 avg), Carlos Gonzalez (1.364 ops), Andrew McCutchen (1.050 ops) were brilliant, while Chris Davis (4 homeruns, 1.393 ops) demonstrated he is not a fluke, and now leads the Majors with 16 homeruns and an ops of 1.141 (tied with Cabrera).
Flame throwers
Anibal Sanchez clearly deserves the spotlight for his dominant performance against the Twins.
Sanchez's bid for a second career no-hitter was broken by Joe Mauer, the 26th batter he faced, with a single up the middle. He still ended up with a complete game shutout and 12 k's. With an ERA of 2.38 and 80 strikeouts in just 64.1 innings pitched, he is the unluckiest pitcher with a 5-4 record ever.
Four pitchers had a 2 wins week for their teams, with John Lackey and Jeff Locke compiling a perfect 0.00 ERA.
Mike Minor was the strikeout king of the week, with 19, King Felix was second with 17, but had an awful week, with 2 losses and a 8.44 ERA.
Aroldis Chapman saved 4 games but was the loser in one, while Joe Nathan had no setbacks in his 4 saves, allowing just a base on ball.
WAR recognizes the great season of Anibal Sanchez, and his 2.8 wins above replacement leads the Leagues. Clayton Kershaw is first among starting pitchers in the WPA department with 2.47, but Edward Mujica, pitching effectively in high leverage situations, makes slightly better with 2.48.
I invoke the 5th amendment
The "Adam Dunn Pendulum swing" hit badly in negative territory, with a 1 out of 21 week, or .048 avg. Second worst of the week is a guy who had been consistently good, so far: Shin Soo Choo was utterly bad this week, with 1 out of 19. Other great hitters in a slump week were Hunter Pence, Jose Altuve, David Wright, Matt Wieters, Matt Holliday, Billy Butler and Robinson Cano: each of them got a membership card for the "Mendoza line club".
Ike Davis is the president of the club, with a season .148 avg.
Burch Smith lasted one inning in his start, allowing 4 earned runs (36.00 ERA), Sean Nolin went 1.1 with 6 earned runs (40.50 ERA). Hiroki Kuroda had an awful start, allowing 8 hits and 5 runs in 2 innings of work. Vance Worley lasted almost 4, but he allowed 10 hits and 8 runs.
Fernando Rodney is the shell of his last year's dominant self: he blew 2 saves opportunities this week, reaching 5 for the year. One must wonder how little Joe Maddon thinks of Joel Peralta to let him on the pine with Rodney pitching so poorly.
Everybody knew he was good, but THIS good?
Paul Goldschmidt is having a fantastic sophomore season, and he capped it with an out of this world week:
"Goldie" had a triple slash of .524/.524/1.190, for an ops of 1.714, with 3 homeruns, 5 doubles and 5 rbis. You can already make the case for him being the best first baseman in the big leagues.
Or.. you may say that the honor still belongs to Joey Votto, who is raking bases by the dozens: .542/.621/.875 for him this week, .473 on base for the season. If you are in an obp league, he is almost illegal.
"Big papi" David Ortiz had a more than productive week with 12 rbis, Raul Ibanez smashed 5 long balls for 11 rbis, Robinson Cano, Billy Butler, Jason Kipnis had 10, and so did Adam Dunn: the "rollercoaster guy" was clearly in an "up" week. Everth Cabrera and Jean Segura are in an arm wrest match for the stolen bases title.
Carlos Gomez is still the WAR king, with 2.7 wins above replacement so far.
Kings of the hill
Chris Sale is right now the most dominant pitcher in baseball: he dismantled the Angels twice this week, first by going a hit short of a perfect game, then overwhelming their lineup with 12 strikeouts.
This is just a bad dream, ain't it?
Ike Davis had a nightmare week, going 1 for 28, MIke Moustakas was slightly less awful, 1 for 24. Danny Espinosa was also 1 for 24, with 12 strikeouts.
B.J. Upton is mirroring his brother's MVP season with another awful week, going 1 for 17 (.059 avg). Carlos Santana (.130) and Carlos Gomez (.200) had uncharacteristic bad weeks.
You wouldn't expect him here, but get this: Justin Verlander is 4-4 for the season, and lasted only 2.2. innings in his matchup against Yu Darvish, allowing 8 earned runs in the process. His weekly ERA is 27.00, bad for 361st. Phil Hughes, though, almost reached 100.00 in his loss, Ryan Vogelsong and Madison Bumgarner were almost twins with their awful 13.50.
Jim Johnson blew his 2 saves opportunities, allowing 7 hits and 7 earned runs in 1.1 innings of work. His seat may be hot, now.
Well, I guess, given the name, you shouldn't expect great changes in this product, but the lack of new ideas is kind of depressing, here.
So, here it is, Topps Museum 2012 2013, with the same hits, the same parallels, the same inserts Topps gave us last year, and once again, in my opinion, it's the artistic side of this product the real winner.
The hits
Basically, on the relics side you have a big chunk of jersey and a single player, quad jersey card or four player, quad jersey card in each box. If you are lucky, you can spot some colors or get a patch on the quad relics:
If you are REALLY lucky, there are great patches to be found:
There are some huge hits on this side, too:
Parallels and inserts
The basic parallels have a copper border and are numbered to 424(??). Green parallels are numbered to 199, blue to 99. And finally, for the inserts, Canvas collection is back, and looks beautiful this year, too.
The artists selected by Topps have done a great job again, and this is definitely the set I will chase this year: there are 35 subjects, with a good balance between active players (15) and retired greats (20).
While I am still waiting for the last card of last year's set to reach my mail box, I have already started this year's set, and I have something going that would be huge if realized. I'll keep you posted with this "secret thing".
Bottom line
There are enough reasons why Topps Museum 2013 will be successful, and while I won't spend 200 dollars for a box, I will definitely bid for some autographs and relics, and try to complete the canvas collection set.
Three pitchers took center stage with masterful performances this week: first, it was Matt Harvey, who retired the first 20 White Sox batters he faced, taking a perfect game into the 7th inning. Then his no-hit bid ended with two outs on an infield single by Alex Rios, and though he worked nine innings and allowed just one of 28 batters to reach base, he couldn't get his deserved win. The game ended in the 10th inning, in fact.
Then, Shelby Miller entered the stage:
The young gun of the Cardinals threw a one-hit wonder: against the Rockies, he allowed a leadoff single to Eric Young, and then retired the next 27 hitters in order. He struck out a career-high 13, improving to 5-2 with a 1.58 ERA in the process. He was truly amazing.
And his rotation partner Adam Wainwright was not about to be outdone by his rookie teammate the following night: he retired the first 13 batters faced and carried a no-hitter into the eighth inning, before Nolan Arenado hit a one-out line drive to center. Wainwright ended his game with a 2-hit shutout win.
Seven pitchers had a 2-win week, only 4 of them starters: Cliff Lee, Matt Cain and Ubaldo Jimenez pitched brilliantly, while Mat Latos was helped by his bats, with a 7.36 ERA. Yu Darvish had his usual monster week with 22 strikeouts in 2 outings, and looks the clear front runner for the Cy Young award.
Hitters on the rise
Evan Longoria had an MVP week:
According to Fangraphs' WAR, Carlos Gomez has been the most valuable player of the season so far, with a 2.6 WAR. Anibal Sanchez, Adam Wainwright and Clay Buchholz are the best pitchers, with 2.2.
No, really, thanks for your time
It's that time of the year, when "regression to the mean" spreads in the leagues like a virus, recalling on Earth fast starters with no so great background. So, for the "Thank you for the ride, guys, but we really have to leave, now", here are a first bunch of players who carried your teams until now, but who are done with the fireworks.
Dexter Fowler is walking among us humans again, after hitting 1 for 21 (or .048), Joe Buck was just a little less horrible, 1 for 19. Michael Morse was 1 for 15, but he had an rbi..
Yuneski Betancourt still found the time to hit an homerun, but he was awful with 3 for 20. Also comfortably under the "Mendoza line": Big Papi Ortiz, CarGo, Ellsbury, Ryan Howard, Cespedes, Brett Lawrie, Billy Butler, Encarnacion and your old man Adam Dunn, now leading the season rankings with a .137 avg.
Pitching their way into the blemish league, were Phil Humber (2 losses, 19.50 ERA) and Jon Niese (2 losses, 16.20 ERA), but also the aforementioned Mat Latos and Tim Hudson (both 7.36 ERA, but with 2 and 1 win, respectively.
"The Tim Lincecum swing season" was in negative territory, this week, with a loss and a 6.43 ERA. Bartolo Colon was roughed up by the Indians, for 6 runs in 4 innings.
