goose, he/him, floridian bolts fan who moonlights as a habs and occasional flyers fan. a team rivalry HATES to see me coming bc i don’t care :3 this is my hockey sideblog, likes/follows come from a similarly goose-themed main blog lol
I tried to find out what criteria are used to determine when a shot counts as an official shot on goal. After a bit of duckduckgoing, I found this NYT piece about why SOG totals are decreasing.
TL;DR — technology, changing criteria, and sports betting
Details below the cut.
Some highlights in case it’s paywalled:
This month, The Athletic contacted multiple sources with knowledge of how the NHL’s statistics system works and what may have changed. Historically, the league has relied upon a small group of off-ice officials at each arena — watching the action from a considerable distance away, in the press box — to record these metrics as games unfold, but that process has evolved in recent years.
With the puck and players now tracked using chips that provide information available in real time, the NHL is deploying that data — as well as increased video resources and third-party auditors — to refine its stat-gathering processes.
As a result, the NHL is scrutinizing shots on goal more than ever. If the puck’s trajectory, based on the tracking data, is deemed to be heading wide of the posts — or in the case of Cooley’s windmill glove save, above the crossbar — it is not counted as a shot on goal, or a save.
(Emphasis mine)
So it has nothing to do with pucks shot towards the net. It’s trajectory.
The NHL’s new tracking technology, however, is accurate down to an inch or two from the goal, meaning it can tell the stat trackers whether a puck that hits a goaltender was headed wide, for the post or into the net.
That’s some sort of fuckery, isn’t it? If a puck shot through traffic and deflected to the net or the goalie gloves it from midair, it doesn’t count as an official shot on goal if the tracked trajectory determines it would have missed otherwise.
Even more interesting (emphasis mine again)
In the time frame when shots have fallen off, missed shots have jumped more than 20 percent, from 11.4 misses per 60 in 2022-23 to a historic high of 14.4 per 60 this season.
So official SOGs have decreased which has also decreased goaltender save percentages but missed shots have increased. But missed shots are not an official tracked stat according to the box score.
I checked the stats from the Montreal-Tampa game 7 because such a big deal was made about the Habs only registering 9 SOG to Tampa’s 29 yet managing to win. Screenshots from ESPN and the NHL website.
Missed shots aren’t listed. Blocked shots are but for some reason missed aren’t.
But it all comes down to one thing:
This drop in shots on goal has affected a lot of other important league statistics, most notably save percentages for goalies, shooting percentages for players and teams, and expected goals and scoring chance models on popular sites such as MoneyPuck and Natural Stat Trick.
Sports betting, my beloathed!
Shots on goal are adjusted on the fly during the game and even after because shots on goal are one of the stats people can bet on. And gambling payouts matter more than actual statistics that reflect what’s happening on the ice. Who cares how many times a team shoots the puck towards the net? What matters is how much BetMGM and FanDuel and Bet360 profit.
So next season when you’re watching your favorite team and you’re frustrated they only have 12 registered shots on goal, remember it’s a misleading, almost meaningless stat these days.
less discourse about the habs 'getting lucky' to make it to the ecf more discourse about why the FUCK the habs had to get through the 5th and 4th ranked teams in the ENTIRE LEAGUE to get to the ecf in the first place when carolina's matchups were. checks notes. 9th and 11th. yeah no wonder the habs were gassed and the canes were not.
actually sports are awesome because if i told you there was a piece of fiction with a sports veteran who everyone is constantly comparing to his prime and wondering if he's about to retire and if we're all just watching a swan song and that by the way his nickname starting up was 'the kid' you would tell me it was too on the nose. and yet.
if i told you about a guy having to hide in an airport and then hunker down in a foreign country waiting for a visa after his former team tried to steal his passport to keep him from going to play in another league you would say what is this a spy movie. happened to my good friend evgeni malkin though.
germansingergirl
yousharknotpass
dailybridgerton
kianamaiart
dededos
jacobvanloon
turnnoffyourmind
snowghoul
discoholicmusic
