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@ianrosmarin
What a year!
2020 is becoming the year that keeps on giving.
Lockdown is no longer in full force but recently I have tried my best to see is what (old) friends from University have been up too.
So far there have been many friendly messages but also some who do not answer or in one case blocked me. The odd thing is this friend is someone who works in the tech and political industry.
This friend or whatever they are most likely I will see in 2021! The question is will I say hello
Doctor Who? Who Cares?
Well I not seen Doctor Who in over a year guess I am not alone!
https://www.thesun.co.uk/tvandshowbiz/10659956/doctor-who-ratings-fall-worst-ever/
Sorry, Jeff Bezos we may have Space Colonies but we are never going to have even trillion humans!
Like many, I recently watched Jeff Bezos video on Blue Moon his new lander.
Jeff was, of course, correct about a lot. The human race does not have the resources to carry on the way it has and in time we are going to need to build a small Dyson Swam.
Here is a link to his video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GQ98hGUe6FM
So what did Jeff and some many like him like Isaac who runs a well known Youtube channel think https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCZFipeZtQM5CKUjx6grh54g
and could anyone with 365000 followers be wrong?
The answer is they believe the human will carry on growing? The truth is, however (and you only need to speak to a few of my friends with families in the 21st century Europe) is that is not the recent trend not just in #Europe and much of #China, #Japan, and #SouthKorea but in the rest of the world too.
Since the 1960s as women have gained more freedom there has been slow but growing decline fertility rates (which was a good idea as fewer of their children were dying from Childhood illnesses like Smallpox. Women have been given the freedom over their own fertility which I myself (as an only child unlike my great grandparents who were one of seven) do not think has been such a bad thing.
I noticed a fairly recently BBC story talk about the ‘Remarkable’ decline in fertility rates ;
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-46118103
Even now in the poorest states in the world, most families are aiming for as many as two children. Which is something I have noticed as I date both men and women in the 21st century want to build careers not just pop out babies (that is what my date said last week).
The result is Earth is likely in just a couple of centuries not to have 20 billion but maybe as few as 2 billion.
Bezos talked about making the Earth a light industrial zone during his talk. I think that is also very unlikely. Earth is larger than the moon and it costs less to mine on Earth then off world.
Will most people leave Earth one day?
I think that is unlikely unless climate change makes the planet uninhabitable (which could happen I guess). The problem is even with all these problems Earth is still better than any other planet in the solar system.
No matter how great the inside of a space habitat is I believe most people will not want to move to them apart from the wealthy and those who cannot do stuff that they want to do back in their home nations. I can see #weathlyislandstates, #Biohackers and #exiles moving up there. But most people I believe will remain down on Earth doing what they have always done.
So why are space colonies and habitats still important?
The truth is that they will be important tools in the development of mankind beyond Earth be that as orbital settlements as we terraform Mars or Venus or as Interstellar city-sized space Arks. People will still want to go beyond Earth and to do that they will need to learn how to export the Earth.
I think the first stage will be low orbit space stations (which we have already build) followed by low Earth orbit Space habitats. Over time we will master the Moon and build bigger space habitats in Luna and CisLuna orbit. Such projects will build on knowledge gained when we built bases and habitats under our Oceans, deserts and both Poles.
Soon after we will build bases on Mars if not the rest of the Solar system. By that point, once we understand those worlds it is likely that some people will get bored and many will want to build a planet-sized society on #Mars and #Venus.
Transforming these dead desert worlds into Earth-like desert worlds will take more energy than we could make from nuclear power (both fission and fusion). At that point, it will be time to build a Dyson swarm for some Solar wide improvement projects. If we can catch just one per cent of the Sun’s power we will be able to terraform both Venus and Mars as well as start a few other great projects like leaser highways and power settlements all over the outer solar system.
After the two planets have been terraformed we could start building O'Neil cylinders space arks (think the Nauvoo in the Expanse https://expanse.fandom.com/wiki/Nauvoo). these trips may take centuries but by then humans may have life extension that means we could live centuries? Our slow growth could mean we settled Earth-like planets within a light century.
That life extension Arthur is right that could trigger a baby boom. But I believe we are already seeing that and as people live longer they have fewer children.
Of course, everything I have said could be wrong but I believe as long as children are born in families the growth of the human population will be slow. You could, of course, clone millions (and we will have the technology for that soon) or just copy human mind millions of times to a vast moon-sized computer.
But I do not think that is the route most of the human race will go. For one thing, it makes me very uncomfortable to think of a Posthuman future von Neumann probe or vast clone armies are not what I think either Jeff or Isaac are thinking (I would not want two or three of me never mind two or three billion of me). It makes me think in fact of Interstellar Spam and making limitless copies of yourself just seems an awful idea.
In truth the human race I believe sooner or later will change and move to the post-human era (just we are unlikely to even then to breed beyond billions). A good example of where we are going is on John Michael Godier channel where one of his early videos talked about the Promise of Molecular Nanotechnology https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qape78ZyF8E&t=
it could be in my view that John is correct and that in a few centuries some aliens come across three Earth-like planets (#Venus, #Earth, and #Mars) and a heavily mined #Mercury
They look down and find that the planets look nature apart from some old cities but a vast cloud covers the planets. These aliens after centuries have come back to the planets their forefathers. Later they find out that the humans on the planets that mankind developed downloaded themselves into their technology.
For me, that seems a lot more likely than Jeff’s or Isaac vision of trillions of meat humans building billions of habitats around the Sun. It may be viewed by some as a waste of resources letting that Sun-light go to waste but the idea of taking the planets apart (including Mercury) seems wrong and my feeling is we will find we will rarely need to get 100% the power of any star including the Sun!
That may be the reason Dyson sphere are not common in Science Fiction because as humans we get the feeling it is just not a great idea to dismantle a planet or it’s moons. I have to say I view the large rockily planets (even Mercury) of the solar system even if that was not the case as having more value that billions or trillions of habitats.
#GoogleCampus #CampusLondon April 2012 to December 2018 may you rest in peace.
Today I walked into the Google Start-up first day to be told that every new and old member needs to re-register as 'they want to have real founders! with real businesses!'. I smiled at the American at the desk and pointed out I had been coming since 2012 and before I filled in the long form (been told it's 20 pages with a business plan) I said I wanted to see the space downstairs she told me 'nothing has changed'. The girl at the desk insisted I could only take a look if I took down a security guard with me as it was only for members! She was right the coffee area has not the problem is only three people were in the space and I had a feeling zero were #Founders or anything to do with #startups the place felt like a tomb or a graveyard, not a place for founders to meet. I looked at #Googleforstartups website tonight but I have already made up my mind I am not going to invest the time for the third time in just under seven years rejoining. I expected after closing the space for three and a half months that #Google would have done something with it. The rudeness of the staff member stood out but something else did. The space downstairs may not have changed but I get the feeling the people have. I am working on three startups as an advisor at this point and two of them are getting investment but I know for a fact #Google's half-ass change’s space's function this was where founders, programmers, investors and dreamers met and it certainly does not feel like anymore more this place is like anywhere else and in a worst than anywhere else this used to be where a complex community of all the people founders need met well it won’t be any more. I know Google does not want the Great unwashed anymore but at the same time it's nature got people together now they are going to put them apart. The space downstairs may not have changed but everything else has!
As for me, my legal career after my father’s illness (he has now recovered) restarts again! If I am lucky I will be a solicitor before I am 40!
Long Time...Almost Brexit
It has been ten months since I last put a blog on here. In that time Brexit has been under debate much of the time. I still agree with Brexit but what worries me is that those like the People’s Vote will get their way and we will end up asking the same question.
That in itself would not be a bad if it had happened in 2017 but given we are less than 6 months away from leaving the EU it seems to me wrong.
The other reason I have not put many blogs on here is that for much of last year and for a bit of this year my father has been ill. I hope to do more blogs before the end of 2018!
This is why I voted to leave the EU not because I hate Europe or anyone else but because the #EU seems to do stuff that is not in anyone’s interests including those trying to leave areas of conflict in Africa and the Middle East
Spain, Catalonia, the European Union and the Euro
For anyone who has watched the last few days there is a feeling from my point of view that the Catalonia vote is not just a turning point for Spain but Europe. On the 23rd of June 2016 for the UK to leave the EU I have to say I have no regrets but I have to ask if those who voted to remain do?
Many have told me the European Union is great we should remain for the rule of law i.e. European Law and Freedom of movement. My short answer is Spain, Catalonia, the European Union and Euro because in truth the four are linked. Without the European Union we would not have the Euro which Spain joined and became one of the PIIGS; Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain. The four nations which are PIIGS is an acronym used to refer to the five eurozone nations that were considered weaker economically following the financial crisis.
Should it shock us that Catalonia does not want Spain’s debt. It makes up 16% of Spain’s population makes 20% of its GDP and one third of its exports. This makes Catalonia leaving Spain a bigger deal than Scotland leaving the UK would have been. The result has been since 2008 the people of this part of Spain whose economy would rank in size between Denmark and Finland have paid more money for the bailout of Spain then they should of. One of their key feelings is that they should keep far more of their tax which was not made better by the vast amounts debt the ECB gave them to remain in the Euro.
My feeling is now that the Catalonia referendum is to Catalonia what the Easter rising will be Ireland. The issue is not the referendum (which should have been unimportant) so much as the heavy hand of the Spanish government. They are out of line with the values of the European Union in Article 2 of the Lisbon Treaty so the question is why on earth did the EU not move to tell Spain to use Article 7 of that treaty from playing a part in the EU.
I think this weekend the EU showed its true colours. The UK government let us have two referendums they did not want us to have in 2014 and 2016 and they even changed the law to let it happen. The question is if they had not accepted the result of the UK EU 2016 referendums one would have the EU supported them or not. We have a good government in London like or hate them they did what the people wanted. This is not just about Brexit or Spain vs Catalonia referendum but the Visegrad Group in Eastern Europe; Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia they are even worst their governments are targeting ethnic minorities Jews, Muslims and Romani as well as LGBTQ community. In Poland they have even appointed Judges who are loyal to the ruling party and in Hungary they tried to shut down the Central European University by George Soros. Some of these actions have been stopped or slowed down but these are worrying times.
You have have to ask why on earth people in their 20s and 30s want to protect a system like this? Could North London students like it if the UK government did this on the streets of Edinburgh in 2014 because if we had remained in the EU that is what we would have voted for because they value Freedom of movement above Freedom itself.
Many people I know on the Left who wanted to remain in the Europe Union now talk of Law and order I say as a lawyer there are bigger issues at stake. Issues like Freedom the vote may of been illegal but why did the Spanish put such a heavy hand on the voters? Could they have not let them vote then tell the Catalonia government that it was not binding?
Well the European Union’s interest is not the local interest when it comes to Catalan. The EU aims to get its own military they will support Spain because if these guys go they take Valencia to the south, and the Balearic islands, leading many Catalan nationalists to regard all three regions- as well as the traditionally Catalan-speaking Roussillon region of France - as forming the "Catalan Countries". The French also fear they will lose Corsica which has had a movement to split from France since the 1960s. The truth issue with the EU is it wants to keep everything the same. They want the existing states to form a Federal state the problem is those member states borders have not even been worked out and in some cases the peoples living in them hate each other. Just like we saw in Catalan this weekend. In fact this is an issue all over Western and Southern Europe which is full of regions that want to leave the state they are part of for one reason or another. You just need to look at Italy and Veneto region (or even most of the North Italy) or Germany and Bavarian nationalism. The EU is not designed for change or for the splitting of member states in fact its designed to stop them from doing that.
This is of course in the interests of Spain, France and Germany who lead the EU. In Spain the police will fire rubber bullets and manhandle people. If you back the European still you really do not understand what is going on. The truth is any European wide state would have major issues we can see them all for ourselves in Spain and Catalan. We need to rethink of the EU but the EU refuses to be reformed. Most people like myself on the 23rd June 2016 who voted to leave voted for change we voted for a freer country and we voted to have our own voice and not to let people in some distance capital made up our minds for us.
In time most other member states who find themselves with a Catalan will find that those states are unlikely to want to remain in the Union that did not support their birth. Even if I hope most European states do not breakup into smaller states (and was glad that Scotland remained part of the UK) the lesson here for both the Spanish government and the EU is that this is sometimes they need respect the people’s will to vote and you cannot just send an army of police officers in. They need to remember that the vote was not legally binding but from a political point of view they seem to be doing their best to make it binding.
Speaking as a Brit who voted to leave I have to say it seems to me that both the European Union who made the Euro and Spain just do not get it. Reduce people’s freedom fail to give them a choice and they will vote to go. In the UK we gave the Scots what they wanted and the UK remains united during the Brexit vote they gave us project fear and we saw the face of the EU and left.
Well the Result of the French election went well!
I am glad Macron won the French election http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39839349
Here we go again
Listening to election 2017 I have to say having been in the past a life long Labour supporter it was hard in 2013 leaving the world seems to be changing far faster than even I believed. I think I am going to have have to vote May I may not like the Tories but I dislike the EU more.
Long Week!
I keep hearing about Trump in the media and him banning refugees I know that citizenship from the seven states Trump banned people going into the US but I think one MP Zahawi said it best https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q_nzPmZnpVk
So Ian Rosmarin’s blog is going to be used at Last...What for?
I am doing well these days in the start up but much of the rest of the world is a mess. So I have made up my mind to do some writing in 2017, well Sic Fi. They will be a number of short stories about this character called Bane some point in the 2191. It maybe Sic Fi but the idea of the stories will be for them to be a reflection of our times the growing conflict in and around Society and Technology. I have no idea if anyone will like my stories or my characters or my ideas what I do know we are in a time of change corrupt elites seem to be giving away to Populists who are a bigger danger and Liberals seem to have no idea what to do. The idea of 3D printing is for now sleeping but one day that technology will wake up
Welcome to Planet Trump
Its been a long time since the end of 2014. I have since then left the Labour Party, Gone back to Law School and become a adviser on a fast growing start up called Modular. Also in the US a man called the Donald is about to take office. Yes I have to admit I think I am glad we are leaving the EU but that is shaped by what is happening in the rest of Europe like Le Pen in France and Law and Justice Party in Poland. The next few years seem to be heading to become a race between Liberals and Populists. I maybe more the former but I know why the latter is doing so well. The elite has failed to understand the man in the street and the result of this is that we are all paying the price.
When I was in Brighton this summer! Just walking around!
An Answer to Adonis
I like your Vision of London the problem is that its scoop is just too narrow;
Within the next 20 years there will be over a million new Londoners some will be born others however will come. London today is a mess the rents are too high and the boroughs are too big. We need to double the number of local boroughs and give them more power as London grows
I am a member of the Labour party but I see little reason to keep Heathrow as a airport within the M25 or as I like to call it ‘the biggest land bank in the world’ anymore than keep Stansted, Luton or Gatwick. The housing problems mean that all four sites should over the next 20 years be turned into Garden cities and a new site away from London be it Thames Estuary airport or somewhere in the midlands should takeover from the cramped large airports in the Southeast. The problem with all four airports is none of them can grow to the size needed Heathrow will in the end be hemmed in by London.
Cross Rail 1, 2 and 3 are great ideas and they will help but they will not solve all the problems of getting into London but again I believe we need to go further…
Why not look at the tube network too if I was running London I would double the Northern tunnels building express lines under London I would also dust off Northern Heights as well. Why not use the tunnels from Edgware station and sent the Northern Line to St Albans.
That brings me to my final answer Andrew about what to do beyond London. I agree HS2 is important and must be built but I also believe we do not need to move government departments or the House of Lords or even the courts of Justice outside of London the money can be better spent. Anyone who watched the recent BBC program mind the gap know that cities on the M62 form what looks like a natural city. I would spend money first merging the cities along the M62 politically from Liverpool to Hull then building the transport network including rail and road tunnels under the Pennines. In time with a Merseyside/Manchester core and with Leeds acting like the city we would build a second city able to compete with London. There would be new towns the Pennines and other parts of the countryside could be its lungs.
Remember Kings Cross and St Pancras were not London buildings they were Northern buildings to show the capital the new northern towns and cities wealth;
But then again I maybe a little bit more ambitious then you for both my city and the country…
Our problems in the East (Crimea)
Over the last few days we have seen Russia go into Crimea. Like most here in Britain I believe the Russians are wrong and I believe President Putin is in the past. However I see his actions from the Russian point of view as defending themselves.
You may ask why I think this?
Well Russia may at this point look strong but it is fast becoming a Paper tiger with a declining population that is why Putin wants his Eurasia Union. Russia today has over 140 million people within 20 years it will have between 120 to 90 million people. We may see the tanks in the Ukraine as a new super power but in fact its one in its last days. from Georgia to Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova and the Near East in Egypt and Syrian Russia is playing a game of chess and states including Israel and Poland maybe finding themselves on this board.
As the Russia Federation declines Europe's problems will become worst I believe for that reason it maybe better to bring the Russians and the Turks in. However much of central and Eastern Europe including the Baltic states would say no.
If the world carries on the way it is there will be other Transnistria, Abkhazi, South Ossetia and now Crimea. In 20 years when Russia does blow (and it will the way it is going) I can see the states West of the Volga taking part in a land grab. I can see Poland leading a commonwealth in the East with maybe the Baltic states, Belarus and the Ukraine as well as the lost Russia lands in the west Finland could look to take the Karelia this would be a unstable world which could kill the European Union.
What we need to ask in not just Europe but here in Britain is this the world we want? We have to start asking if not investing further and the Balkans is in our interest. Being Jewish I see Russia as being a problem a growing problem I believe Putin will have to go my worry is but not pushing Russia into Europe like we did with Ukraine we may end up with a bigger problem that one day could kill the European Union.
BBC worldwide your British you cannot open this site!
Just went to check on a BBC story on bbc world wide about new housing in the UK they will not let Brits open the site from Britain that's odd is it something they are hiding?
http://www.bbc.com/culture/story/20130719-exciting-housing-innovations
5 posts! not sure what this is?