I just rewatched 02 x 07 for the first time since finishing all the books and I can't stop thinking about it. I feel like everyone is either on the side of (1) it was all a big ploy, or (2) that's it for Moiraine and Siuan they can never come back from this--but I really don't think either of those are true.
I think the most in character thing Moiraine could possibly do is forgive Siuan, for the following reasons:
Moiraine knows that she would do the exact same thing that Siuan did here--namely, sacrifice anything (even their relationship and their trust in one another)--for the sake of the world and their mission. And this shared goal, these compatible values, and this mutual understanding is literally what has kept them together despite 20 years of distance and secrecy from the world.
[MINOR BOOK SPOILERS] We see in one of the books that Moiraine believes she and Siuan have made their beds and will lie in them one day by becoming involved in the quest to find the Dragon -- I believe the way she phrases it is about payment coming due for all the rules they've broken and the secrecy etc. that they needed for their quest. If this is her attitude, she is not only willing to give up everything, but expects to give up everything. And she expects it of Siuan as well.
Siuan has already proven how much she would give up for their quest. She became Amyrlin despite, as we learn this same episode, how much she did not want to be trapped in the tower and could not see her future there. She gave up any semblance of a happy life (how she would picture it both with and without Moiraine!) for this quest.
In some ways, if Siuan had just let Moiraine take Rand through a waygate to Falme, it would have actually been a betrayal of their mission. Their mission wasn’t “get Rand to Falme.” It was “protect and train the dragon reborn.” Siuan feels the need to do that as acutely as Moiraine does--and critically, Moiraine knows this about Siuan.
This goes quadruple if Siuan actually did think Moiraine could be a dark friend. Siuan thinks Moiraine lied to her!! And Moiraine knows this too, since Siuan does at least have the chance to say "You lied to me!" Moiraine would understand that if there was any chance Moiraine had been turned or was compelled, Siuan had to try and stop her from taking Rand off to god knows where.
Literally just a few days earlier Moiraine had threatened to have Alanna take Lan’s bond by force if he stood in her way--aka, the way of her mission. At this very moment, Moiraine herself has spent days (weeks?) contemplating what it would mean to betray the autonomy and trust of those she loves most if it means saving the world. And she knows what side she's on.
When Moiraine says, “if you have ever loved me don’t do this” my heart shatters into a million pieces. But that line is not just ,“it will be a betrayal of our love and trust if you compel me." It is that, but it's also a call for Siuan to see Moiraine for MOIRAINE. She’s saying “you know me.” She’s trying to get her (Siuan) to see that what she (Moiraine) is doing is not about her shame and pride but about the mission. Because it is ALWAYS about the mission, Moiraine IS the mission, and Siuan loves her because of that, and Moiraine knows Siuan loves her because of that
Moiraine clearly hesitates before going through the waygate. Her character isn't one to linger out of shock and betrayal. She lashes out and she puts up distance--we've seen this all season. Moiraine moves forward. So I read her looking at Siuan here as far more "I love you and I'm sorry [I can't help you? it's come to this? we can't reconcile?]" than "How could you?" or "You're a different person to me now." I’m not trying to minimize the violation Moiraine is also feeling in this moment, I just think that if the violation was her primary emotion she would likely behave differently. And if she can have this messy a set of emotions even in the heart of the moment, I have faith she can similarly hold multiple emotions later when reconciling.
The flashback scenes are so heartbreaking but they don’t have to mean that Moiraine and Siuan feel so betrayed and far from those versions of themselves that they will never be together again. Those flashbacks can also be saying “remember when we were those people?” Holding onto those versions of themselves is how they hold onto their love despite this scene.
Those flashbacks also remind us that their relationship in the show is like 50 years old. It is deep. People don't throw away 50 years of relationship without a conversation, even if there is a deep betrayal involved. And that's normal people--not even people who have given up absolutely everything for a cause that the relationship has now gotten wrapped up in. In the books, they are together for a few years and then seemingly go their separate ways when the Dragon is reborn. I don't think the show would have gone out of its way to deepen and lengthen this relationship just to end it so quickly and unceremoniously.
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