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[jeffptc]

The 2013 Playoffs - A Pirates Fan's Perspective

Don’t even pretend that you know.

Don’t tell me you root for a football or basketball team that was atrocious for years, because it’s not the same. Don’t even tell me you rooted for some other baseball team with some sort of losing streak, because there’s no way it’s the same. Don’t even pretend.

Don’t pretend that you know what it’s like to root for a team that got an out away from the World Series and then blew up and lost the core of that successful squad. Don’t pretend you lost a Barry Bonds, a Jose Bautista, a Jason Bay, a Nate McClouth—guys who struggled wearing the black and gold and turned their careers around elsewhere.

Don’t pretend that you spent 21 years in misery, sinking slowly into the mire and the basement of all of baseball, becoming the laughing stock of the league. Don’t pretend you know what it’s like to have Freddy Sanchez, Jack Wilson, Paul Maholm, and Jack Wilson (again) lead your team in WAR in four different years, essentially meaning they are your best player.

Don’t pretend you know the pain of perpetually being a seller, dishing off your best players every July for a bunch of prospects that may never pan out, realizing you may never have a core group of players.

Don’t pretend you know what it’s like that in that span of 21 years, sometimes .500 was never even sniffed.

But most of all, don’t pretend that—in the span of those difficult, painful years—you know what it’s like to be well over .500, ready to finally break the curse, only to tank and have the season ruined by fatigue and overuse of pitching rotation and bullpen.

Don’t pretend you know what it’s like, because you don’t.

Forgive me if I have a bit of a chip on my shoulder in my tone, because I probably do. But there is no misery like that of being a Pirates fan between 1992 and 2012. I was born in 1990, so when they were still good, I knew nothing about baseball. But since I can remember turning on baseball, my grandpa (who lives in Franklin, PA, one hour north of Pittsburgh) and I would watch the games. So ever since I knew what baseball was, I’ve rooted for the Pirates. Jason Kendall was my favorite player, and it seemed like we were always playing the Milwaukee Brewers. I hated them because they always beat us. I still hate them.

This year, I hate the Reds and the Cardinals a little more than usual.

The Reds have been Big Brother for a little too long, especially living in the heart of Reds country, where everyone you know roots for the Kentucky Wildcats, Cincinnati Bengals, and those (expletive) Cincinnati Reds. I’ve always heard how much better they are than everyone. How great Joey Votto is, and how he’s the best player in the league; how their rotation is so deadly; how they’re so scrappy and have suffered injuries, etc. I suffer their homering announcers on local radio because I just love baseball so much that I have to listen to whatever I can get around here (especially when they play the Pirates.) I suffered hearing Homer Bailey face the Pirates after his no-hitter while the announcers speculated about his chances to repeat against my beloved Buccos.

No.

When PNC Park blacked out for Monday night’s game, I felt I was there as I heard Dan Schulman and Orel Hersheiser call the game on ESPN Radio, I heard the chants of “CUEEEEEEEEEEEE-TO! CUEEEEEEEEE-TO! CUEEEEEEEEE-TO!” and the cheers as he dropped the ball right before he threw it right in the sweet spot for Russel Martin, who belted it into deep left center field. My thoughts during the game were just that this was deserved: that the Reds had their time, I was sick of hearing how great they were. It’s time for my club to shine. It’s our turn. Essentially, there was some sort of mix-up at the hospital and we were no longer little brother.

We’re Big Brother now. Reds, you can go home.

 The Cardinals, who gave me the best World Series of my life so far, have been our nemesis this year, and as a Pirates fan, it was easy to feel hard done by losing the division to them. The Cardinals, who I have tons of respect for—it’s a great organization that’s built for long-term success, it’s managed well, coached well, etc. Usually beating the Cardinals meant nothing (I don’t have the geographical bias against them like I do the Reds) but this year, it means everything. I almost feel like the Cardinals are Achilles—a legendary club with a storied past and great reputation, and we are his Prince Hector—two great warriors, and it’s a shame one has to lose, but in the eyes of the viewer (assuming we are talking about the film Troy here) we are the good guys, they are the bad.

  When we won our 82nd game, it felt like everything else we got this year would be a bonus. Let’s be realistic—who thought the Pittsburgh Pirates would make the postseason? But then we won 83, and 84, and 85 (and so on until 94) and got home field after sweeping the Reds in their ballpark. The Wild Card game took on a strange dynamic. On one hand, it was still indeed a bonus, and a part of me felt I shouldn’t get too excited because we may just lose and it’d all be over.

But then I thought, “If we lose, it’s over. We can’t lose. We won’t lose.” Somehow my mentality had shifted from survival to aggression, and I no longer felt like we needed to hang around—it feels more now like we have to make a statement. It feels now like we have to fight for the city of Pittsburgh, and ultimately the game of baseball. Call it a product of the narrative surrounding the Pirates this year, but any ending to the season that doesn’t involve my Buccos lifting the World Series trophy just seems wrong on a moral level. Who are the Cardinals, the Dodgers, the Braves, the Red Sox, the Tigers, Athletics, Indians, or Rays to try and stand in the way of the Family?

This isn’t just about making the playoffs anymore—we are here. This isn’t about survival. It’s about winning. It’s about getting rid of every obstacle that tries to stand in our way. Nobody else knows what these last 21 years have been like. By God, it’s our turn.

Welcome to Buctober.

[jeffptc]

The Clint Hurdle Effect? - The Pirates' Improved Defense

The success of the Pirates has become arguably the biggest narrative of this season. They sit pretty at 66-44, with a game and a half lead on the St. Louis Cardinals. While fans of the Pirates are merely thirsting for fifteen more wins to guarantee the end of the 20-year losing skid, analysts widely regard the Pirates as playoff-bound, if not contenders for the division.

Presently, we’ll continue the endless discussion of why the Pirates have succeeded thus far, but perhaps with a new spin.

The Pirates have been trending up under the tenure of Clint Hurdle, but a closer look at the numbers doesn’t necessarily indicate an offensive success, but a noticeable improvement in the defense.

Run Differential

In 2010, the last season before Clint Hurdle, the Pirates finished 57-105 with a despicable -279 run differential. Since then, the run differential has improved incrementally to -102 in 2011 and -23 in 2012, when finishing .500 felt inevitable. This year, the Bucs have outscored their opponents by 49 runs, which isn’t much, but is in an improvement over where it was on August 3rd in 2010 (-205,) 2011 (-12,) and 2012 (+33.)

Metrics

Additionally, a look at some of the advanced metrics indicate an improvement in the defense of the Pirates. In 2010, the Pirates had -77 DRS and a -7.7 UZR/150. In 2011, that improved to -29 and -3.5 (respectively,) and in 2012, -25 and -2.6. Still not great numbers, but they reflect an ostensible difference under Clint Hurdle. In 2013, these numbers are all in the green: 43 DRS, 5.1 UZR/150. Obviously, these are subject to change, but the trend continues.

BABIP

Perhaps it is an illogical step to go backwards from advanced stats like DRS and UZR/150 to one as simple as BABIP, but it seems to me that this one sticks out the most and combines the picture of improved pitching and an improved defense. The noticeable trend has continued, as these are the defensive BABIPs of the Pirates over the last few years:

2010: .311

2011: .300

2012: .286

2013: .270 (1st in MLB)

My simplistic mind appreciates BABIP in this particular instance, because this tells me something clear. These numbers are microcosmic of the fact that the Pirates are improving in the area of simply converting batted balls into outs, and that is nothing but a good sign for a club looking to win games, but it is especially good for a club with the offensive woes the Pirates endure.

Say what you will about the overuse of the Pirates bullpen, and it will not be argued at present. It is my hope that someone can combine these defensive numbers with pitch f/x data and create a more clear picture of how the Pirates have succeeded with a group of ragamuffins. This is a start to a conversation and hopefully a case study into the effectiveness of a good defense and how it can counteract and overcome an anemic offense such as that of the Bucs. We may just see how it works out in the postseason.

[jeffptc]

Trade Deadline--are the Pirates buyers, sellers, or...neither?!

With the discussion of who is a buyer and who is a seller, things can get blurry. Teams like the Giants, who are perennially buyers, have to decide if they're 'conceding' and going to sell major players for future prospects. Then there are teams like the Pirates, who are almost annually sellers (though they've been minor buyers the last few years, to no avail) who appear to be contending and would ideally be buyers.

  But wait. Do you have to be either?

  I think the Pirates should keep the ship steady (pun intended) and not make any big change. Maybe acquire an arm to eat some innings and help the Shark Tank.

Here's the thing: the Pirates are in second place, only about two games from the Cardinals. They'll finish anywhere in between 1st and 3rd in the Central. 3rd is an acceptable finish, because the NL West--boasting a collective winning percentage under .500--doesn't appear to have a wild card team in them, nor does the NL East, whose leaders just lost their best pitcher, and whose second place team is eight games back and well under .500.

  Or I could say it more directly: the Pirates are leading the wild card race, with the Reds in second (behind by 2.5 games) and the Diamondbacks--being the next closest team--are behind the Reds by 4.5 and the Pirates by 7. We are 62% of the way into the season, and things appear to be staying on course with a favorable schedule. The Pirates would do poorly to part with good prospects for a short-term fix.

[jeffptc]

I didn't want Alex Rios, but...

Thanks to FanGraphs, I was able to contrast Alex Rios' defensive and offensive numbers since 2010 (Jose Tabata's rookie season) with Tabata's and those of Travis Snider. Defensively, Rios' numbers are by far better, and his numbers with the bat are about the same as Tabata's (better than Snider's) with a much larger sample size.

He provides, in a tight race like this one, the boost necessary in right field to help the Pirates contend in the hotly contested NL Central.

  The issue is that Rios has a lot of money left on his contract, I believe it's something like 12 million next year and 5 million this year. Whoever acquires Rios (which most sources indicate that the Rangers have more to offer than do the Pirates) will probably ask the White Sox to eat a big part of that contract, and that is a MUST for the Pirates, who operate on a small payroll. The Rangers could afford to take on more of that, which would help their case for acquiring Rios.

[jeffptc]

Quick Thoughts on A's @ Pirates, 7-8-13

When I saw it was Bartolo Colon vs Jeff Locke on the first game of the series, I knew it'd be a great game, unfortunately I didn't get to watch it, but I saw the box score and it met what I expected statistically.

 Colon, who pitched seven innings, allowed 4 more hits, one less run, two less walks and struck out one more than Jeff Locke, who continues to impress, throwing seven of his own, allowing only three hits and two runs while walking three, including walking in the winning run for Oakland.

I wish I could watch Jeff Locke more--as a fan, he used to be a guy for whom I assumed a Pirates loss. He used to be a 5 IP, 10 H 4 ER, 6 BB type, and he's really done something to bring all those numbers down (except for IP) and usually lasts 6-7 innings now, while locking down the opposing lineup. In a sense, he's exactly what the Pirates need--a guy who will almost without fail limit the opposition to 3 or less runs, while the anemic Pirates offense looks to scrap together a run or two.

Also, wis Brandon Inge playing second with Jordy Mercer on the bench? I can understand having one dry-bones bat in the lineup for the sake of the glove (Barmes, who really had himself a game) but to sit Mercer, who defends reasonably well at second base, seems like a crime with how well he's been playing offensively, at least in comparison to Inge.

Gerit Cole (PIT) vs Dan Strailey (OAK) tomorrow, and Francisco Liriano (PIT) v Tommy Milone Wednesday night on ESPN. Should be a great series--thank God for good baseball.

[jeffptc]

WHAT IS YOUR EARLIEST HUMAN MEMORY?

Hmm. I'm going with the most vivid one or two. One was a HUGE rainstorm; my siblings and I played outside in it, and there are pictures to remember it by. The second happened playing wiffle ball with my dad; I was probably four years old and I hit a ball from our backyard across the street. He called it a grand slam.

[jeffptc]

I think announcers are homers.

Today, the Seattle Mariners beat the Cincinnati Reds to take the series 2 games to 1.

  Thursday, during the rain delay (and eventual postponement) of the Reds game, I was listening to the radio broadcast, and a guy called in asking the announcers if they thought Seattle could be trouble for the Reds. They treated him like he was nuts, eventually asking him if he was a Seattle fan, and he revealed he was from Seattle. Still, his reasoning was good--Seattle are young and good and near .500 in a tough division.

  The announcers didn't listen.

  I think announcers are homers.