In Latin America, broken dreams and renewed hope for 2017
A few years ago, Latin America seemed to be an oasis of prosperity given a bruised Western world where developed nations faced the worst recession since 1929 while some countries such as Argentina and Brazil kept experiencing an economic boom partly because of an increase on commodity prices and a set of particular state policies aiming at boosting growth and consumption in their markets.
On the political domain, Dilma Rousseff was elected first female president in one of the key states in South America, namely Brazil, presiding over more than 200 million people.
On the international domain, the entire international community was excited about the upcoming 2014 World Cup and the Olympic Games held in Rio past August.
Unfortunately – just a like a house of cards falling apart – the scene could not be more different nowadays. The year of 2016 has revealed itself to be one the most marked shift period in Latin America history. Firstly, right wing president Mauricio Macri was elected in Argentina causing an upside down at Casa Rosada with his neoliberal reforms and foreign policies towards neighbouring leftist governments. Secondly, Brazil is currently drowing in one of the worst recession of its history witnessing a painful impeachment process by the Congress which resulted in president Dilma’s ousting. A move she promptly accused of being a “coup d’état”.
Although her campaign against the so called “putschists” she could not prevent herself from being impeached accused of illegal government spending and replaced by her run-up colleague Michel Temer – former vice-president and current Brazilian commander-in-chief.
Temer administration, in its turn, has failed to retake growth and has insistently pushed forward austerity measures, labour and social security reforms, besides passing a law at the Lower House allowing public spending to be frozen for the next twenty years. Still, he has not been able to protect himself and his allies from embezzlement allegations revealed during the procedures of the ongoing political class killer “Car Wash Operation” which brought to light a massive bribery scheme at the run-state company Petrobas.
Venezuela, on the other hand, has faced an unprecedented institutional crisis, with Nicolas Maduro’s government refusal to negotiate with the Lower House, controlled by his opposition, which demands his departure and the end of his presidential mandate. Given not favourable forecasts for the economy, Venezuelans are divided on what to do next in this complicated chess political game. Unexpectedly, Pope Francis – the first Latin-American pontiff – has agreed with Maduro’s pledge for intercession, a strategy to buy some time according to critics.
But not everything is just tears and rain in Latin America. Colombia, Peru, Chile and surprisingly Paraguay have shown themselves steady countries despite an uptight political atmosphere.
Colombia finally reached a peace deal with its long term enemy, the FARC guerrilla. Even if the deal was rejected by a small majority of voters in the controversial fallout of the FARC referendum, such an event was undoubtedly praised by the international community granting the Colombian president Juan Manuel Santos the Peace Nobel Prize. Meanwhile, new negotiations took place for a new deal which mirrored the electorate’s view expressed by the referendum concerning the agreement.
As opposed to old times, Peruvians also rejected the far-right populist candidate Keijo Fujimori, a former dictator’s daughter. Her father Alberto Fujimori ruled the country for ten years in the past. The winner’s challenge – Peruvian economist Pedro Pablo Kuczynski, a.k.a PPK – will be the implementation of reforms to allow equal development and fair income distribution.
Moreover, landlocked Paraguay has applied friendly policies towards foreign entreprises revealing itself an attractive and competitive spot for investors abroad which does not mean the country has done its homework completely. The current Horacio Cartes administration has sought to present Paraguay as a stable democracy but a gloomy shadow from the period when President Fernando Lugo was also removed from office in 2012 still hovers over Asuncion. And Chile – ranked as a high economy by the World Bank – kept its status despite the political turmoil around President Michelle Bachelet’s second term.
For better or worse, Fidel Castro’s death proved to be a breakthrough step for the continent this year. Officially and deliberately not in charge since 2008, the former Cuban dictator was an icon to the empowered left and symbol of oppression among his opponents. Barack Obama’s visit in the country in March – the first of an American president since 1929 – represented a shift in relations between Washington and Havana. According to reports, the struggling Caribbean island’s economy would be the fastest growing in the world if the current trade embargo was to come to an end.
However, this condition remains on hold since President-elect Donald Trump is threatening to reverse the Obama administration's opening to Cuba.
Irrevocably, 2016 has been a hard and tough year for many and will be remembered as a period of unexpected disruption and delusion, not only in Latin America but also in Europe, with the Brexit, and in the U.S., with Donald Trump’s election. Against the odds, as the year ends and a new one begins, renewed hopes flourish once again – if disrupted events may have taken place, institutions are still working. Better in some countries than in others, that is accurate.
Yet, if past times were were difficult it does not mean the future will be exactly the same way. Many factors could be listed for such an optimism: the long awaited Brazilian economic recovery in the next years, a more critical society stimulated by social and independent media, multicutural background in each country and an emerging educated middle-class demanding a better standard of living are only a few.
If it is too early for a renewal of hope, 2017 will tell. Happy New Year!
