José Berríos Gold Glove Szn

A smorgasboard of baseball stats, analysis, sabermetrics, and updates centered on current and former Minnesota Twins. Main @zoeology31

[zoeology31]

Offseason Twins News Roundup

Since the mid-playoffs 1-2-3-4 punch of firing four coaches, Thad Levine leaving, MLB taking over TV broadcast rights, and the Pohlads announcing their intention to sell the team, the Twins have had a quiet offseason relative to most teams. But now that the stove has heated up with big trades and signings over the last week or so, I expect things to start moving for the Twins as well. Here's a roundup of what's happened since mid-October as we prepare for what comes next.

Kirilloff's Retirement

At the end of October, Alex Kirilloff, the Twins' 2016 first-round draft pick, announced his retirement from baseball at age 26 due to the physical and mental complications of his various injuries. This came as a huge surprise, but an understandable decision nonetheless, and by every indication he's in a good headspace about it. I wish him the best.

Article here

Roster Moves

Here's the current state of the Twins' 40-man roster. As we've passed various early offseason roster deadlines, there have been a lot of procedural moving parts here:

Kepler, Santana, Thielbar, Farmer, and Margot are free agents, the latter two after having their mutual options declined

Kirilloff retired from baseball (see above)

Dobnak, Duarte, Blewett, Winder, and Severino were outrighted off the 40-man roster to clear space. Dobnak remains with the organization on his contract; Duarte, Blewett, and Severino were all re-signed on minor league deals, and Winder elected free agency

Alcala's team option was picked up

Stewart, Tonkin, and Topa were all signed to one-year deals to avoid arbitration

The rest of the Twins' very large arbitration-eligible class were all tendered contracts: Castro, Jeffers, Ober, Jax, Ryan, Larnach, Duran, and Lewis. The arbitration filing deadline is 1/9/25, though I don't expect any players to go to arbitration

Top prospect Marco Raya as well as Travis Adams (both pitchers) were added to the 40-man roster to protect them from the Rule 5 Draft. No players in the organization were lost in the major-league portion of the Rule 5 Draft

The Twins selected Eiberson Castellano, pitcher in the Phillies' organization, in the Rule 5 Draft (more on that later)

Few surprises here outside the Kirilloff news. I always liked Winder, so I'm sad to see him go. I expect to see Raya in the majors next season. There's a nonzero chance the Twins re-sign Santana given the glaring hole at first base. Also best wishes in Colorado to Kyle Farmer, forever a Twins legend for the opening day walkoff, promising a playoff win, and hitting that homer in ALDS Game 2 🫡

Front Office Changes

Longtime Twins president Dave St. Peter stepped down, while Derek Falvey will be taking over in a joint president/POBO role. Assistant GM Jeremy Zoll, one of the Twins' two assistant GMs and head of player development, was promoted to GM to replace Levine. St. Peter was the president for 22 years and the face of things like "if you fund our new stadium we promise to raise the payroll" and "why aren't fans coming to the ballpark after we cut payroll". He won't be missed among fans.

Articles: St. Peter, Zoll

Arizona Fall League

The Salt River Rafters, the Twins' Arizona Fall League affiliate this year, won the AFL championship. Their manager was Saints coach Tyler Smarslok, and Twins prospect (and 2023 AFL home run derby champion) Kala'i Rosario drove in the go-ahead run. I hope Rosario can make the majors, he seems like a cool guy and I enjoy rooting for him.

Article here

Coaching Staff Changes

The Twins recently finished their major league coaching staff hires, as well as some internal promotions.

Hitting coach: Matt Borgschulte, Orioles assistant hitting coach and former Twins minor league hitting coach

Hitting coach: Rayden Sierra, Twins minor league assistant hitting coordinator

Assistant hitting coach: Trevor Amicone, Yankees triple-A hitting coach

First base/infield coach: Ramon Borrego, Twins double-A manager and 21-year organizational veteran

Assistant bench coach/catching coach: Hank Conger, promoted from first base coach

It'll be interesting to see if the all-new hitting staff can fix the Twins' situational hitting issues, which they've specifically called out as a goal. I'm really excited to see Borrego join the major league staff, he's very popular and managed a lot of our players in the minor leagues.

Articles: Borgschulte, other coaches

Rule 5 Draft Pick

For the first time since 2017, the Twins selected a player in the major league Rule 5 Draft: Eiberson Castellano, a rising star pitching prospect for the Phillies' double-A team. He fits the Twins' pitching prospect profile (big righty with good command) and they've apparently liked him for some time. Since Rule 5 draftees must be kept on the active roster, he'll likely be tried as a long reliever.

Article here

Potential Buyers for the Twins

The first potential buyers for the Twins have emerged, Justin and Mat Ishbia, owners of the Phoenix Suns and Mercury basketball teams. Any potential sale is likely still in early stages, but the Ishbias have apparently been meeting with local leaders already. They are characterized as assertive, willing to spend, and passionate about baseball. If this is accurate, this absolutely seems like best case scenario.

Article here

[jose-berojos]

Pitch Arsenal Analysis, Part 1: Introduction

The offseason is spreadsheets season! I'm gonna try to post on here more frequently as I attempt to bend Baseball Savant, Baseball Reference, and Fangraphs to my will as part of my year-round baseball absorption regimen.

I've been looking at Baseball Savant pitch arsenal data, tracking the usage of different pitch types by each pitcher. The Statcast leaderboard, which I imported to make my spreadsheets, shows data for every pitcher to throw at least 100 pitches in 2024, 712 pitchers total. This limit is low enough to capture players who were hurt nearly the entire season, like Strider, Bieber, and Graterol, but I'd still like to eventually import 2023 data to integrate significant players who missed all of 2024, like Ohtani, Alcantara, and Bautista.

Pitch Types

Statcast recognizes 12 different pitch types, 9 of which were thrown by more than two people this season: the four-seam fastball, sinker (two-seam fastball), cutter (cut fastball), slider, changeup, curveball, splitter (split-finger/split-change), sweeper, and slurve. This classification system has its limitations; it lumps together different variations on the same recognized pitch type, like Yu Darvish's multiple cutters and curveballs, and has trouble classifying hybrid pitches, like how Jhoan Duran and Jose Soriano's splinkers are listed as splitters, while Paul Skenes and Ben Joyce's are listed as sinkers. But it still provides an extremely comprehensive, workable baseline, and I've really enjoyed sifting through the data.

Pitch types fall into three families, representing their function in a pitcher's arsenal: fastball (four-seam, sinker, cutter), offspeed (changeup, splitter), and breaking ball (slider, sweeper, curveball, slurve). Technically, offspeed encompasses everything that's not a fastball, including all breaking balls, but they are usually discussed separately in terms of arsenals and pitching/hitting strategy.

Fastballs are the bread-and-butter pitch; pitching and hitting strategy is essentially based around the expectation of a four-seam fastball, a relatively undeceptive pitch that comes straight-on. Breaking balls (and to an extent the other fastball varieties) deceive by moving in an unexpected way, while offspeed pitches deceive by traveling with unexpected timing. The exact ways that pitchers create these differently-moving pitches involves very complicated physics around the spin of the ball and the angles of the pitcher's body in space, which a vast amount of research has gone into analyzing. We are not covering that here.

The Statcast pitch arsenal leaderboard offered three metrics for each pitcher's pitches: average velocity, average spin, and use percentage. I don't know enough about spin rates to get actionable information from that data, so I downloaded the other two and made a nice spreadsheet to torture, with rows for all 712 pitchers and columns for pitch type, subdivided into velocity and percentage. To ensure the percentages added to 100 for every pitcher, I smashed together an "other" column for Matt Waldron's knuckleball, Brent Honeywell's screwball, and the two forkball pitchers on the leaderboard.

Pitch Arsenals

To answer the baseline question of whether a pitcher has a particular pitch in their arsenal, I chose a threshold of >3% usage. A pitcher's true arsenal from season to season should accurately represent the pitches they threw on a regular basis, not ones they tinkered with for a single start or broke out in a handful of at-bats for an emergency. The >3% number was chosen through feel and sanity checking—asking whether a closely-following fan of a player's team would be surprised to know they threw that pitch. It includes Craig Kimbrel's sweeper (4.9%) and Gerrit Cole's changeup (4.0%) but not Marcus Stroman's curveball (2.6%) or Emmanuel Clase's four-seam (1.2%).

Based on this definition, the average number of pitches in an arsenal is 4.03, and 597 of the 712 pitchers throw 3-5 pitches. Only one of the 52 2-pitch pitchers in 2024 is a starter, Ben Brown of the Cubs, while only 15 of the 63 6/7/8-pitch pitchers are primary relievers. This fits the conventional wisdom that starters want at least 4 pitches, while relievers can get away with 2 main ones, due to facing far fewer batters in a game and thus relying less on varying their strategy for success.

Unsurprisingly, the four-seam is the most commonly thrown pitch, found in 631 pitchers' arsenals (88.6%) at a 36% average usage, for an average of 32% usage across all pitchers. That average is not weighted by how many pitches each pitcher threw, that would require a different dataset, only average use percentage. The breakdown of every pitch type is as follows:

Four-seam: 631 pitchers (88.6%), usage 36.1%, overall use 32.05%

Slider: 495 pitchers (69.5%), usage 25.9%, overall use 18.07%

Sinker: 429 pitchers (60.3%), usage 26.2%, overall use 15.92%

Changeup: 415 pitchers (58.3%), usage 16.4%, overall use 9.70%

Curveball: 324 pitchers (45.5%), usage 16.0%, overall use 7.37%

Cutter: 260 pitchers (36.5%), usage 20.7%, overall use 7.62%

Sweeper: 214 pitchers (30.1%), usage 20.8%, overall use 6.31%

Splitter: 91 pitchers (12.8%), usage 19.9%, overall use 2.56%

Slurve: 9 pitchers (1.3%), usage 17.6%, overall use .222%

Other: 4 pitchers (.6%), usage 28.9%, overall use .162%

There's some interesting patterns to be found in just this overview. Sweepers are thrown by half as many pitchers as changeups, but thrown more often by their users. There are four clear tiers of pitch use frequency within a pitcher's arsenal: four-seam, slider/sinker, cutter/sweeper/splitter, changeup/curveball/slurve. These tiers seem to transcend pitch type families, but beyond that I'm not really sure of their significance.

Next post, we'll take a deeper dive into the arsenals of those 2- and 6/7/8-pitch pitchers to understand the different strategies they employ.

[jose-berojos]

What the Fuck Are They Doing With Alcalá? A Comprehensive Overview

Jorge Alcala is one of my niche-favorite Twins players, thanks to a specific game in 2020 where he pitched two scoreless innings in extras to salvage the game that started out as Maeda's 8-inning no-hit bid. He was Duran before Duran: a flamethrowing Dominican righty who the Twins picked up as a 2018 trade deadline lottery ticket and converted to a major-league caliber reliever.

It's not been a smooth road: like many high-velocity pitchers, he struggles with command, and also has historic issues facing lefties. But in late 2021, it looked like he'd figured it out, giving up just 1 earned run across his last 14 appearances of the season with stellar peripherals and picking up his first career save. Heading into 2022, he seemed poised to work into a setup role, but he got hurt after two appearances and, like many others that season, had complications during the rehab process and never returned.

2023, then, was set to be Alcala's year, as one of many high-ceiling but limited track record relievers fighting for a leverage role to improve a bullpen that had been the 2022 team's weakness. And this is where it gets weird.

As a hard-throwing reliever with high-leverage potential, a history of arm issues, and coming off a season almost totally lost to arm injury, Alcala's third appearance of the season was in... a 3-run deficit (the first prolonged multi-run deficit the Twins had faced all season), where he threw 45 pitches over 1.2 innings. Having not thrown 30+ pitches in an outing since 9/15/20, his third appearance back from injury he was asked to throw 45. Six days later he threw 44 in 2 innings and gave up 2 runs. Another five days later he threw 41 in 2.1 and gave up 3 runs, and was promptly sent down.

His fourth appearance in triple-A, he threw 42 pitches in 1.2 innings. He was then called back up and made three appearances, all 20+ pitch count, all giving up runs, in progressively lower leverage before being relegated to mop-up duty in a 16-3 game and going on the injured list two days later.

Unsurprisingly, the injury was right arm-related; more surprisingly, sometime later it was upgraded to a stress fracture, which shut him down for three months. After a few rehab assignments, he came back for the last game of the season, where he gave up the game-tying run and threw 39 pitches in 2 innings.

So far in 2024, Alcala looks better than ever, but it hasn't earned him any more favorable usage. Like last year, about half his appearances have been for multiple innings, mainly in low leverage, with one 40-pitch outing. There was also the weird incident on 4/6 where they planned to have him throw a third inning before he complained of arm soreness. With his injury history, this sounded alarming, but he got two days rest and then threw back-to-back for the first time since 2021.

Though he's maintained an ERA of 0 so far, with 9 strikeouts to 3 hits and 3 walks, he was the first reliever sent down (over less experienced pitchers, or pitchers with worse performance but no minor league options) when Thielbar returned. Given his performance, heavy usage, and the arm soreness incident, this made sense as load management, but in his first triple-A appearance, he threw... 2 innings, 34 pitches.

I don't get it. From the outside, this looks like a shockingly uncharacteristic and localized case of mismanagement and wasted opportunities by the Twins. Alcala was an heir-apparent setup man just two years ago, and he's shown time and again he can still be that if given health and opportunity. Instead he's treated like a rubber-armed fringe long reliever.

Since I wrote the bulk of this post, Alcala made two more triple-A appearances, both single-inning and 20 or fewer pitches, and he sat for nine days between outings. His fastball velocity in these outings has rebounded to a more characteristic 99 mph max, 97 mph average, which is encouraging to see after his velocity frequently dropped during those longer MLB outings.

With talks of sending Sands down to triple-A to stretch out as a starter, it's likely Alcala will soon be called back up to fill that middle relief/spot-setup role. I hope this most recent triple-A usage is indicative of how they plan to use him at the major league level going forward. He deserves a chance to stick as a setup man, and the multi-inning, 30+ pitch usage he's been stuck in for the past year plus seems tailor-made to get him hurt again.

[jose-berojos]

Luis Arraez Stats Tracker

So, Luis Arraez is now tied for the latest in a season to hold a qualified .400 batting average since 2000. He’s been the league’s best contact hitter since getting called up in 2019 (though no one would listen to us about him until last year), but he’s really taken it to a new level this year with Miami. Why? Some combination of luck, roster construction, Nelson Cruz vibes bestowal, a home ballpark with a turf field and bigger outfield dimensions, dad strength, facing a league of pitchers who haven’t seen him much, and like. Karma?

Anyway, he’s more interesting than every single Twin except maybe Duran right now, so let’s crunch the numbers on his projected pace for hits and batting average. While I don’t think it’s likely he hits .400 over the whole season, we could still see some very impressive stats.

First, we’ll project out his full 2023 season to 551 at-bats over 145 games played. He’s currently at 255 at-bats over 67/73 games played; this projection keeps him on his 3.8 at-bats per game pace over 2022/2023. 145 games may seem low, but it would be a career high by 1 game over 2022, so this takes into account his tendency to slump and battle leg injuries in the second half.

This leaves 296 at-bats left to play. Currently at a .400 average with 102 hits before games on Tuesday 6/20, here’s what Arraez would need to reach these milestones:

.400/221 hits (last achieved: Ted Williams, 1941) – 119 hits, .402 pace

.390/215 hits (last achieved: George Brett, 1980) – 113 hits, .382 pace

.380/210 hits (last achieved: Rod Carew, 1977) – 108 hits, .365 pace

.370/204 hits (last achieved: Ichiro Suzuki, 2004) – 102 hits, .345 pace

.360/199 hits (last achieved: Joe Mauer, 2009) – 97 hits, .328 pace

.350/193 hits (last achieved: Josh Hamilton, 2010) – 91 hits, .307 pace

.340/188 hits (last achieved: Mookie Betts, 2018) – 85 hits, .287 pace

Next, let’s look at the hits milestones. The records here are harder to beat nowadays, since most players don’t play every day. We need to set a realistic maximum for how many at-bats Arraez could finish the season with. Looking at 2022 data, players with the maximum number of games that Arraez could play this year, 156, accrue about 590 at-bats on the high end. Here’s how many hits Arraez could reach with that number of at-bats:

238 hits/.403 (last achieved: Ichiro Suzuki, 2007) – 136 hits, .406 pace

225 hits/.381 (last achieved: Jose Altuve, 2014) – 123 hits, .367 pace

216 hits/.366 (last achieved: Jose Altuve, 2016) – 114 hits, .340 pace

[jose-berojos]

Update: Between 6/20-6/26, Arraez has gone 9 for 23 (.391) with 3 walks and a home run.

This puts him at a .399 average with 111 hits overall in 278 at-bats. Based on my full-season projections, he would need to maintain a .403 pace to hit .400 overall.

How likely is this to happen? Well, here’s a nice Fangraphs article from last week on the topic, but I’ll toss a little baseline probability analysis in too.

BABIP, or batting average on balls in play, is considered a good metric for determining how sustainable a batter’s hitting trends are. It’s especially impactful for a player like Arraez who walks below average, never strikes out, and never hits home runs (since those three outcomes do not result in balls in play). Here are Arraez’s career BABIP numbers compared to his batting averages:

2019: .355 BABIP, .334 AVG, -.021 difference 2020: .353 BABIP, .321 AVG, -.032 difference 2021: .323 BABIP, .294 AVG, -.029 difference 2022: .331 BABIP, .316 AVG, -.015 difference 2023: .412 BABIP, .399 AVG, -.013 difference Career: .349 BABIP, .328 AVG, -.021 difference

Starting in 2022, Arraez has consistently struck out less and hit more home runs than earlier in his career, which correlates directly to his average hewing much closer to his BABIP. Thus if I apply his career BABIP of .349 to his future performance, I would expect his future average to be about .334, using that more recent -.015 difference to reflect his current approach.

Next, let’s use this .334 average to build a normal distribution for Arraez’s potential average over the remainder of the 2023 season. Over his career, Arraez’s lowest average in a single month was .226 in September 2021, while his highest was .439 in April 2023. Performing to either of these averages over the next three months would be extremely unlikely, so I’ll set these points at 3 standard deviations from the mean. This creates a normal distribution with a mean of .334 and a standard deviation of .035.

To find the probability of Arraez hitting .403 for the remainder of the season, we take (.403-.334)/.035 = 1.971 to find the z-score. p(z=1.97) = .9756, so by this method the probability of Arraez hitting .403 or higher is 2.44%. Unlikely, but by no means impossible!

[jose-berojos]

Update for the All-Star Break: Over the past two weeks, Arraez has gone 15 for 51 (.294) with 3 walks, 4 strikeouts, and no home runs.

This puts him at a .383 average and 126 hits overall in 329 at-bats. Based on my full-season projections, he would need to maintain a .428 pace over his final 222 at-bats to hit .400 overall.

Obviously these numbers aren’t great for the .400 chances, but there’s a few additional things to consider.

First off, virtually any average Arraez could end the season with is impressive in its own right. Even the .294 he’s hit at during this two-week slump, if he were to continue that pace for the rest of the season, he would end with a .347 average, best since DJ LeMahieu in 2016. If he instead hit his career average of .327 for the rest of the season, he would end at .359, best since Josh Hamilton in 2010.

Second, my full-season projections are outdated given Arraez’s playstyle and usage to this point in the season. Arraez hasn’t missed a game since June 18th and has only missed 2 since the beginning of May, usually pinch-hitting in games he doesn’t start. Arraez has also moved from batting 3rd to batting leadoff while original Marlins leadoff hitter Jazz Chisholm deals with injuries. These factors have lead to more plate appearances, and combined with his nearly career low walk rate, more at-bats.

Given this information, we’ll update his 2023 full-season projections to 150 games played at a 3.9 at-bats/game pace, for 585 total at-bats. This lowers Arraez’s required pace to reach .400 to .422 over his remaining 256 at-bats. Still not great, but at least a more accurate not great!

But hey, it’s baseball. Anything can happen, and whatever does, it’ll be a treat to watch.

[jose-berojos]

A belated update on this: Luis Arraez won his second batting title, becoming the first ever to win in both leagues in back-to-back years, and the first to win in both leagues period in a full season. Let's take a look at how his final numbers shook out against some of my analysis.

Arraez finished with 574 at-bats in 147 games played, with 203 hits for a .354 average.

That's the highest average in a full season since Josh Hamilton in 2010, and the most hits since Whit Merrifield in 2019, though both Acuña and Freeman beat Arraez out in total hits this season.

Arraez missed 8 games near the end of the season with an ankle injury, accruing 77 hits in 245 at-bats for a .314 average in the second half. These are still fairly Arraez-like numbers, but broken down you can see how his unreal season was dragged down by a stunningly bad August. Arraez hit .236 and turned in a career low .579 single-month OPS due to walking once in 111 plate appearances.

I'm not really sure what happened here, beyond the general late-season fatigue we've seen from Arraez before. This was in the middle of a 69 (nice) straight games played stretch for him, plus the Marlins spent August nearly getting buried in the wild card race, so those factors can't have helped. But still, if you brought his August stats in line with the rest of his season or removed them entirely (he would still have enough plate appearances to qualify), he would've hit .381, which is absolutely insane.

That single-walk August tracks with another trend I noted: his unusually low walk rate this season. Arraez ended up with a 5.7% walk rate for the season, 3 points below his previous career rate, indicating a statistically significant difference in approach. This leads to a very funny looking Statcast page that also explains why the approach works for him; despite running a 28th percentile chase rate, a career low by 50(!!!) points, his career 100th percentile whiff% means he just never misses whatever he swings at.

I am curious if the increased chase rate is a direct factor in Arraez's stellar numbers this season, or if they're both connected to other changes in approach. And further, is either element repeatable for next season? Hard to say, but I'm always down for more Arraez batting titles.

[jose-berojos]

2023 Predictions Analysis

Now that the season is well and truly wrapped up, let's see how I did on my 1/4-mark predictions! Original post here. It's the first time I've ever done this, so hopefully I can improve upon this next year and maybe try to predict more stuff!

Standings

AL East Rays: 105-57 (z) 99-63 (w) Orioles: 91-71 (w) 101-61 (z) Blue Jays: 89-73 (w) 89-73 (w) Red Sox: 84-78 78-84 Yankees: 79-83 82-80

Cumulative difference: +1, absolute difference: 25 Most accurate: Blue Jays, least accurate: Orioles

Predicting the Orioles passing the Rays like they did would've been pretty tough, though this is the second straight year the Rays have limped to the finish line. The Orioles outperformed their Pythagorean record by 7 wins, but their pitching held up much better than I expected. Nailed the Blue Jays, lol. Red Sox and Yankees were flipped from my prediction, as I was fooled a bit by Boston's early May surge.

AL Central Twins: 89-73 (y) 87-75 (y) Guardians: 81-81 76-86 Tigers: 72-90 78-84 White Sox: 67-95 61-101 Royals: 64-98 56-106

Cumulative difference: -15, absolute difference: 27 Most accurate: Twins, least accurate: Royals

I underestimated the depths of the AL Comedy Central, as the combined division underperformed my predictions by a whopping 15 wins. The Tigers looked respectable all year, due in part to their surprising intradivisional dominance. The Guardians never got going like I feared and sold at the deadline. Meanwhile, getting injured players back did not, in fact, help the White Sox, and the Royals were shockingly bad outside of those two god-mode stretches.

AL West Astros: 96-66 (y) 90-72 (y) Rangers: 94-68 (w) 90-72 (w) Mariners: 84-78 88-74 Angels: 77-85 73-89 Athletics: 41-121 50-112

Cumulative difference: -1, absolute difference: 27 Most accurate: Rangers/Mariners/Angels, least accurate: A's

The only division where I got the exact order right, as my M's and 'Stros bandwagon knowledge came in handy. The head-to-head Astros-Rangers tiebreaker was the only difference between a bye and WC2. The Mariners launched away from .500 later than expected, but nearly made the playoffs nonetheless. The Angels looked good for stretches but collapsed hard after the trade deadline, and that crazy A's win streak saved them from baseball history.

NL East Braves: 102-60 (z) 104-58 (z) Phillies: 88-74 (w) 90-72 (w) Mets: 85-77 75-87 Marlins: 74-88 84-78 (w) Nationals: 67-95 71-91

Cumulative difference: +8, absolute difference: 28 Most accurate: Braves/Phillies, least accurate: Mets/Marlins

By Pythagorean record, the only team I didn't nail here was the Mets, but by real record, the Marlins are expectation-defying wizards. Injuries crumbled an already shaky Mets team, and they doubled down by selling at the deadline. The Marlins, meanwhile, pushed through a tough late schedule and took advantage of a Cubs collapse to snag a wild card spot. Braves, Phillies, and Nationals all did about as expected.

NL Central Brewers: 90-72 (y) 92-70 (y) Cubs: 85-77 83-79 Pirates: 83-79 76-86 Cardinals: 70-92 71-97 Reds: 65-97 82-80

Cumulative difference: +11, absolute difference: 29 Most accurate: Cardinals, least accurate: Reds

Welcome to my biggest miss, the 2023 Cincinnati Reds. When I made this prediction, they were fourth in the division, but they called up rookie after rookie and played some of the season's most electric baseball before coming up just short of the playoffs. The Pirates, who I thought would take that route, instead regressed hard after the hot start. The gap between the Brewers and Cubs turned out larger than I expected thanks to the Cubs' late slide, but I was fully correct to be a Cardinals denier.

NL West Dodgers: 94-68 (y) 100-62 (y) Padres: 92-70 (w) 82-80 Diamondbacks: 87-75 (w) 84-78 (w) Giants: 73-89 79-83 Rockies: 59-103 59-103

Cumulative difference: -1, absolute difference: 25 Most accurate: Rockies, least accurate: Padres

The Dodgers being the insane magic team that they are, made the division far less close than I expected. I had faith in the stacked Padres team but they inexplicably never came through, though they did manage to squeak above .500 and into third place. The Giants' hot May/June held their overall record up even with the late-season collapse. I was pretty accurate with the Diamondbacks and, unfortunately, spot-on with the Rockies.

Playoffs

ALWC Rangers 2, Orioles 1 Rangers 2, Rays 0 Twins 2, Blue Jays 1 Twins 2, Blue Jays 0

This was my best round, correctly predicting Rangers over the AL East runner-up and Twins over Blue Jays. Wasn't expecting every single WC matchup to be a sweep, but I felt confident that the Rangers offense would run over the Orioles and the Twins pitching could shut down the Jays.

NLWC Padres 2, Phillies 0 Phillies 2, Marlins 0 Diamondbacks 2, Brewers 1 Diamondbacks 2, Brewers 0

I'm proud of my D-Backs over Brewers pick, which was really just vibes-based and also because my standings prediction had them finishing 3 games apart rather than 9. Here you see my inclusion of the Padres start to snowball, though I was trying to manifest 2022 NLCS revenge.

ALDS Astros 3, Twins 1 Astros 3, Twins 1 Rays 3, Rangers 2 Rangers 3, Orioles 0

Also very proud of nailing the Astros-Twins matchup, I was very correct that we could take one win but not more off such a playoff-tested opponent. Rays got slammed with injuries (and other. events) down the stretch, and nobody could predict their terrible play in the actual games, but the Rangers also just played well.

NLDS Padres 3, Dodgers 1 Diamondbacks 3, Dodgers 0 Braves 3, Diamondbacks 1 Phillies 3, Braves 1

Okay, somehow I screwed up the matchups here despite getting the seeds right, they should've been 1/4 and 2/6. Dodgers always lose because lol. LMAO. Though the sweep was again a surprise. I would've picked Padres over Braves in 5, because pitching injuries really aren't to be underestimated.

ALCS Astros 4, Rays 3 Rangers 4, Astros 3

Had this been the matchup, the Astros would've won, but their bizarre home-field advantage curse strikes again. I still expected them to win in 7, but missed scoring opportunities in the first two games and poor pitching management in the last two cost them. The Rangers' bullpen also stepped up in the playoffs, fixing their one glaring weakness.

NLCS Padres 4, Braves 3 Diamondbacks 4, Phillies 3

If I'd gotten the DS matchups right, my prediction here would've been Padres 4, Diamondbacks 2. This seemed like an easy matchup for the Phillies, but the D-Backs played tough and their pitchers consistently exploited flaws in the Phillies offense. Though all three Phillies wins were solid, they couldn't win the close games, losing with a +9 run differential.

World Series Astros 4, Padres 2 Rangers 4, Diamondbacks 1 10/23 prediction: Rangers 4, Diamondbacks 2

Back in May I expected an Astros repeat, but my mid-LCS prediction almost came true were it not for the dramatic end to game 1. The D-Backs were a wild card in every sense, but I had the feeling they couldn't repeat their tricks against Philly on the Rangers' more well-rounded offense and weirdly clutch playoff bullpen. A rather underwhelming series entertainment-wise, especially after the exciting LCS rounds and the much more back-and-forth nature of the previous few world series. But congrats to the Rangers nonetheless.

Final Thoughts

Record prediction margins:

Exactly on: 2 teams

Within 1-3 games: 8 teams

Within 4-6 games: 12 teams

7+ games apart: 8 teams

Overall not bad for a first try. I'm less familiar with the National League, and unsurprisingly most of my big misses were there. I was decent but not perfect at determining which performance trends were sustainable and which weren't, which I feel I'll get better at with practice and familiarity. My original plan of quarterly predictions is time consuming and kind of repetitive, but I plan on doing a first quarter prediction again next year. I'll probably do a middle post at the end of the regular season to predict the playoff bracket.

[jose-berojos]

It’s Happening

[jose-berojos]

The Prophecy Has Been Fulfilled!!!

On his fourth time as a finalist, Berrios finally gets his gold glove! Would've loved to see it go to one of my Twins guys, but Berrios has deserved it for a long time.

[jose-berojos]

2023 Final Season Predictions

Gonna try to do one of these for each quarter mark of the season, because why not! This one’s a bit late, but I wrote the whole thing last week and am sticking by it even as some of my predictions already look bad.

Standings

AL East Rays: 105-57 (z) Orioles: 91-71 (w) Blue Jays: 89-73 (w) Red Sox: 84-78 Yankees: 79-83

AL Beast is very real. Playing slightly under their post-win streak pace of .640, the Rays easily take the best record in baseball. The Orioles sustain their competitiveness against top teams to snag WC2, and the Blue Jays ride a fluctuating season to WC3. Red Sox cool off but their offense still carries them to above .500, Yankees’ depth issues holds them to a respectable but uncharacteristic last place.

AL Central Twins: 89-73 (y) Guardians: 81-81 Tigers: 72-90 White Sox: 67-95 Royals: 64-98

The AL Central, as expected, takes the worst of the balanced schedule, with 3 of the AL’s 4 90-loss teams. Twins maintain a precarious lead before pulling away late, while the Guardians’ lack of consistent power hurts even as pitching keeps them afloat. The Tigers come back to earth against tough NL teams, but make noticeable improvements. White Sox squeak out over Royals for fourth place, though trending in opposite directions.

AL West Astros: 96-66 (y) Rangers: 94-68 (w) Mariners: 84-78 Angels: 77-85 Athletics: 41-119

The Astros rebound with the return of their injured players, though with a much less commanding lead than usual. The Rangers stay solid behind offense and starting pitching to take WC1, while the Mariners fall back due to offensive struggles but remain above .500. The Angels get Angels’d late, as usual. The Athletics continue their slide with another deadline fire sale (fuck John Fisher).

NL East Braves: 102-60 (z) Phillies: 88-74 (w) Mets: 85-77 Marlins: 74-88 Nationals: 67-95

The Braves cruise to the top seed even with their pitching injuries as the rest of the division falls off. Harper carries the Phillies to WC2 as their pitching rebounds, while the Mets’ roster of expensive old guys never really gets going, but manages a respectable record due to sheer talent. The Marlins’ luck runs out eventually, as does the Nationals’, but this division is primed for a shakeup in the next year or so.

NL Central Brewers: 90-72 (y) Cubs: 85-77 Pirates: 83-79 Cardinals: 70-92 Reds: 65-97

The Brewers’ youth movement works, and they hang on for the lead in a surprisingly competitive division. The Cubs fall just short, snakebitten by close losses. The Pirates drop off but pull a 2022 Orioles by staying over .500. The Cardinals, unable to dig out of their early season hole, have their first 90-loss season since 1990. The Reds’ own youth movement is starting up, but the results are yet to come.

NL West Dodgers: 94-68 (y) Padres: 92-70 (w) Diamondbacks: 87-75 (w) Giants: 73-89 Rockies: 59-103

The Dodgers do typical Dodgers things, coming out on top of a back and forth division battle. The Padres rebound as their offense gets clicking, but can’t quite take the division, settling for WC1. The Diamondbacks snag WC3 on the strength of their young offensive core. The Giants continue their downward slide, while the failing-to-improve Rockies finally have a 100-loss season.

Playoffs

ALWC Rangers 2, Orioles 1 Twins 2, Blue Jays 1

NLWC Padres 2, Phillies 0 Diamondbacks 2, Brewers 1

ALDS Astros 3, Twins 1 Rays 3, Rangers 2

NLDS Padres 3, Dodgers 1 Braves 3, Diamondbacks 1

ALCS Astros 4, Rays 3

NLCS Padres 4, Braves 3

World Series Astros 4, Padres 2

[jose-berojos]

A reminder of my predictions from 5 whole months ago…

There were some misses, but I successfully predicted 11 of the 12 playoff teams and the exact first two round playoff matchups for the Twins! Plus some other decently prescient called shots, like the Angels collapsing down the stretch and the Diamondbacks beating the Brewers in the NL wild card.

We’ll revisit this in more detail after the World Series.

[jose-berojos]

It’s Happening

[jose-berojos]

Luis Arraez Stats Tracker

So, Luis Arraez is now tied for the latest in a season to hold a qualified .400 batting average since 2000. He’s been the league’s best contact hitter since getting called up in 2019 (though no one would listen to us about him until last year), but he’s really taken it to a new level this year with Miami. Why? Some combination of luck, roster construction, Nelson Cruz vibes bestowal, a home ballpark with a turf field and bigger outfield dimensions, dad strength, facing a league of pitchers who haven’t seen him much, and like. Karma?

Anyway, he’s more interesting than every single Twin except maybe Duran right now, so let’s crunch the numbers on his projected pace for hits and batting average. While I don’t think it’s likely he hits .400 over the whole season, we could still see some very impressive stats.

First, we’ll project out his full 2023 season to 551 at-bats over 145 games played. He’s currently at 255 at-bats over 67/73 games played; this projection keeps him on his 3.8 at-bats per game pace over 2022/2023. 145 games may seem low, but it would be a career high by 1 game over 2022, so this takes into account his tendency to slump and battle leg injuries in the second half.

This leaves 296 at-bats left to play. Currently at a .400 average with 102 hits before games on Tuesday 6/20, here’s what Arraez would need to reach these milestones:

.400/221 hits (last achieved: Ted Williams, 1941) – 119 hits, .402 pace

.390/215 hits (last achieved: George Brett, 1980) – 113 hits, .382 pace

.380/210 hits (last achieved: Rod Carew, 1977) – 108 hits, .365 pace

.370/204 hits (last achieved: Ichiro Suzuki, 2004) – 102 hits, .345 pace

.360/199 hits (last achieved: Joe Mauer, 2009) – 97 hits, .328 pace

.350/193 hits (last achieved: Josh Hamilton, 2010) – 91 hits, .307 pace

.340/188 hits (last achieved: Mookie Betts, 2018) – 85 hits, .287 pace

Next, let’s look at the hits milestones. The records here are harder to beat nowadays, since most players don’t play every day. We need to set a realistic maximum for how many at-bats Arraez could finish the season with. Looking at 2022 data, players with the maximum number of games that Arraez could play this year, 156, accrue about 590 at-bats on the high end. Here’s how many hits Arraez could reach with that number of at-bats:

238 hits/.403 (last achieved: Ichiro Suzuki, 2007) – 136 hits, .406 pace

225 hits/.381 (last achieved: Jose Altuve, 2014) – 123 hits, .367 pace

216 hits/.366 (last achieved: Jose Altuve, 2016) – 114 hits, .340 pace

[jose-berojos]

Update: Between 6/20-6/26, Arraez has gone 9 for 23 (.391) with 3 walks and a home run.

This puts him at a .399 average with 111 hits overall in 278 at-bats. Based on my full-season projections, he would need to maintain a .403 pace to hit .400 overall.

How likely is this to happen? Well, here’s a nice Fangraphs article from last week on the topic, but I’ll toss a little baseline probability analysis in too.

BABIP, or batting average on balls in play, is considered a good metric for determining how sustainable a batter’s hitting trends are. It’s especially impactful for a player like Arraez who walks below average, never strikes out, and never hits home runs (since those three outcomes do not result in balls in play). Here are Arraez’s career BABIP numbers compared to his batting averages:

2019: .355 BABIP, .334 AVG, -.021 difference 2020: .353 BABIP, .321 AVG, -.032 difference 2021: .323 BABIP, .294 AVG, -.029 difference 2022: .331 BABIP, .316 AVG, -.015 difference 2023: .412 BABIP, .399 AVG, -.013 difference Career: .349 BABIP, .328 AVG, -.021 difference

Starting in 2022, Arraez has consistently struck out less and hit more home runs than earlier in his career, which correlates directly to his average hewing much closer to his BABIP. Thus if I apply his career BABIP of .349 to his future performance, I would expect his future average to be about .334, using that more recent -.015 difference to reflect his current approach.

Next, let’s use this .334 average to build a normal distribution for Arraez’s potential average over the remainder of the 2023 season. Over his career, Arraez’s lowest average in a single month was .226 in September 2021, while his highest was .439 in April 2023. Performing to either of these averages over the next three months would be extremely unlikely, so I’ll set these points at 3 standard deviations from the mean. This creates a normal distribution with a mean of .334 and a standard deviation of .035.

To find the probability of Arraez hitting .403 for the remainder of the season, we take (.403-.334)/.035 = 1.971 to find the z-score. p(z=1.97) = .9756, so by this method the probability of Arraez hitting .403 or higher is 2.44%. Unlikely, but by no means impossible!

[jose-berojos]

Update for the All-Star Break: Over the past two weeks, Arraez has gone 15 for 51 (.294) with 3 walks, 4 strikeouts, and no home runs.

This puts him at a .383 average and 126 hits overall in 329 at-bats. Based on my full-season projections, he would need to maintain a .428 pace over his final 222 at-bats to hit .400 overall.

Obviously these numbers aren’t great for the .400 chances, but there’s a few additional things to consider.

First off, virtually any average Arraez could end the season with is impressive in its own right. Even the .294 he’s hit at during this two-week slump, if he were to continue that pace for the rest of the season, he would end with a .347 average, best since DJ LeMahieu in 2016. If he instead hit his career average of .327 for the rest of the season, he would end at .359, best since Josh Hamilton in 2010.

Second, my full-season projections are outdated given Arraez’s playstyle and usage to this point in the season. Arraez hasn’t missed a game since June 18th and has only missed 2 since the beginning of May, usually pinch-hitting in games he doesn’t start. Arraez has also moved from batting 3rd to batting leadoff while original Marlins leadoff hitter Jazz Chisholm deals with injuries. These factors have lead to more plate appearances, and combined with his nearly career low walk rate, more at-bats.

Given this information, we’ll update his 2023 full-season projections to 150 games played at a 3.9 at-bats/game pace, for 585 total at-bats. This lowers Arraez’s required pace to reach .400 to .422 over his remaining 256 at-bats. Still not great, but at least a more accurate not great!

But hey, it’s baseball. Anything can happen, and whatever does, it’ll be a treat to watch.

[jose-berojos]

Luis Arraez Stats Tracker

So, Luis Arraez is now tied for the latest in a season to hold a qualified .400 batting average since 2000. He’s been the league’s best contact hitter since getting called up in 2019 (though no one would listen to us about him until last year), but he’s really taken it to a new level this year with Miami. Why? Some combination of luck, roster construction, Nelson Cruz vibes bestowal, a home ballpark with a turf field and bigger outfield dimensions, dad strength, facing a league of pitchers who haven’t seen him much, and like. Karma?

Anyway, he’s more interesting than every single Twin except maybe Duran right now, so let’s crunch the numbers on his projected pace for hits and batting average. While I don’t think it’s likely he hits .400 over the whole season, we could still see some very impressive stats.

First, we’ll project out his full 2023 season to 551 at-bats over 145 games played. He’s currently at 255 at-bats over 67/73 games played; this projection keeps him on his 3.8 at-bats per game pace over 2022/2023. 145 games may seem low, but it would be a career high by 1 game over 2022, so this takes into account his tendency to slump and battle leg injuries in the second half.

This leaves 296 at-bats left to play. Currently at a .400 average with 102 hits before games on Tuesday 6/20, here’s what Arraez would need to reach these milestones:

.400/221 hits (last achieved: Ted Williams, 1941) – 119 hits, .402 pace

.390/215 hits (last achieved: George Brett, 1980) – 113 hits, .382 pace

.380/210 hits (last achieved: Rod Carew, 1977) – 108 hits, .365 pace

.370/204 hits (last achieved: Ichiro Suzuki, 2004) – 102 hits, .345 pace

.360/199 hits (last achieved: Joe Mauer, 2009) – 97 hits, .328 pace

.350/193 hits (last achieved: Josh Hamilton, 2010) – 91 hits, .307 pace

.340/188 hits (last achieved: Mookie Betts, 2018) – 85 hits, .287 pace

Next, let’s look at the hits milestones. The records here are harder to beat nowadays, since most players don’t play every day. We need to set a realistic maximum for how many at-bats Arraez could finish the season with. Looking at 2022 data, players with the maximum number of games that Arraez could play this year, 156, accrue about 590 at-bats on the high end. Here’s how many hits Arraez could reach with that number of at-bats:

238 hits/.403 (last achieved: Ichiro Suzuki, 2007) – 136 hits, .406 pace

225 hits/.381 (last achieved: Jose Altuve, 2014) – 123 hits, .367 pace

216 hits/.366 (last achieved: Jose Altuve, 2016) – 114 hits, .340 pace

[jose-berojos]

Update: Between 6/20-6/26, Arraez has gone 9 for 23 (.391) with 3 walks and a home run.

This puts him at a .399 average with 111 hits overall in 278 at-bats. Based on my full-season projections, he would need to maintain a .403 pace to hit .400 overall.

How likely is this to happen? Well, here’s a nice Fangraphs article from last week on the topic, but I’ll toss a little baseline probability analysis in too.

BABIP, or batting average on balls in play, is considered a good metric for determining how sustainable a batter’s hitting trends are. It’s especially impactful for a player like Arraez who walks below average, never strikes out, and never hits home runs (since those three outcomes do not result in balls in play). Here are Arraez’s career BABIP numbers compared to his batting averages:

2019: .355 BABIP, .334 AVG, -.021 difference 2020: .353 BABIP, .321 AVG, -.032 difference 2021: .323 BABIP, .294 AVG, -.029 difference 2022: .331 BABIP, .316 AVG, -.015 difference 2023: .412 BABIP, .399 AVG, -.013 difference Career: .349 BABIP, .328 AVG, -.021 difference

Starting in 2022, Arraez has consistently struck out less and hit more home runs than earlier in his career, which correlates directly to his average hewing much closer to his BABIP. Thus if I apply his career BABIP of .349 to his future performance, I would expect his future average to be about .334, using that more recent -.015 difference to reflect his current approach.

Next, let’s use this .334 average to build a normal distribution for Arraez’s potential average over the remainder of the 2023 season. Over his career, Arraez’s lowest average in a single month was .226 in September 2021, while his highest was .439 in April 2023. Performing to either of these averages over the next three months would be extremely unlikely, so I’ll set these points at 3 standard deviations from the mean. This creates a normal distribution with a mean of .334 and a standard deviation of .035.

To find the probability of Arraez hitting .403 for the remainder of the season, we take (.403-.334)/.035 = 1.971 to find the z-score. p(z=1.97) = .9756, so by this method the probability of Arraez hitting .403 or higher is 2.44%. Unlikely, but by no means impossible!

[jose-berojos]

Luis Arraez Stats Tracker

So, Luis Arraez is now tied for the latest in a season to hold a qualified .400 batting average since 2000. He’s been the league’s best contact hitter since getting called up in 2019 (though no one would listen to us about him until last year), but he’s really taken it to a new level this year with Miami. Why? Some combination of luck, roster construction, Nelson Cruz vibes bestowal, a home ballpark with a turf field and bigger outfield dimensions, dad strength, facing a league of pitchers who haven’t seen him much, and like. Karma?

Anyway, he’s more interesting than every single Twin except maybe Duran right now, so let’s crunch the numbers on his projected pace for hits and batting average. While I don’t think it’s likely he hits .400 over the whole season, we could still see some very impressive stats.

First, we’ll project out his full 2023 season to 551 at-bats over 145 games played. He’s currently at 255 at-bats over 67/73 games played; this projection keeps him on his 3.8 at-bats per game pace over 2022/2023. 145 games may seem low, but it would be a career high by 1 game over 2022, so this takes into account his tendency to slump and battle leg injuries in the second half.

This leaves 296 at-bats left to play. Currently at a .400 average with 102 hits before games on Tuesday 6/20, here’s what Arraez would need to reach these milestones:

.400/221 hits (last achieved: Ted Williams, 1941) -- 119 hits, .402 pace

.390/215 hits (last achieved: George Brett, 1980) -- 113 hits, .382 pace

.380/210 hits (last achieved: Rod Carew, 1977) -- 108 hits, .365 pace

.370/204 hits (last achieved: Ichiro Suzuki, 2004) -- 102 hits, .345 pace

.360/199 hits (last achieved: Joe Mauer, 2009) -- 97 hits, .328 pace

.350/193 hits (last achieved: Josh Hamilton, 2010) -- 91 hits, .307 pace

.340/188 hits (last achieved: Mookie Betts, 2018) -- 85 hits, .287 pace

Next, let’s look at the hits milestones. The records here are harder to beat nowadays, since most players don’t play every day. We need to set a realistic maximum for how many at-bats Arraez could finish the season with. Looking at 2022 data, players with the maximum number of games that Arraez could play this year, 156, accrue about 590 at-bats on the high end. Here’s how many hits Arraez could reach with that number of at-bats:

238 hits/.403 (last achieved: Ichiro Suzuki, 2007) -- 136 hits, .406 pace

225 hits/.381 (last achieved: Jose Altuve, 2014) -- 123 hits, .367 pace

216 hits/.366 (last achieved: Jose Altuve, 2016) -- 114 hits, .340 pace

[zoeology31]

The MLB season is well underway and I’m back into the seasonal swing of baseballposting! The Twins have invented new and unusual ways of being confusing and frustrating this year, so let’s not talk about that. Instead, here is a complete team of all my favorite non-Twins current players.

Keep reading

[jose-berojos]

2023 Final Season Predictions

Gonna try to do one of these for each quarter mark of the season, because why not! This one’s a bit late, but I wrote the whole thing last week and am sticking by it even as some of my predictions already look bad.

Standings

AL East Rays: 105-57 (z) Orioles: 91-71 (w) Blue Jays: 89-73 (w) Red Sox: 84-78 Yankees: 79-83

AL Beast is very real. Playing slightly under their post-win streak pace of .640, the Rays easily take the best record in baseball. The Orioles sustain their competitiveness against top teams to snag WC2, and the Blue Jays ride a fluctuating season to WC3. Red Sox cool off but their offense still carries them to above .500, Yankees’ depth issues holds them to a respectable but uncharacteristic last place.

AL Central Twins: 89-73 (y) Guardians: 81-81 Tigers: 72-90 White Sox: 67-95 Royals: 64-98

The AL Central, as expected, takes the worst of the balanced schedule, with 3 of the AL’s 4 90-loss teams. Twins maintain a precarious lead before pulling away late, while the Guardians’ lack of consistent power hurts even as pitching keeps them afloat. The Tigers come back to earth against tough NL teams, but make noticeable improvements. White Sox squeak out over Royals for fourth place, though trending in opposite directions.

AL West Astros: 96-66 (y) Rangers: 94-68 (w) Mariners: 84-78 Angels: 77-85 Athletics: 41-119

The Astros rebound with the return of their injured players, though with a much less commanding lead than usual. The Rangers stay solid behind offense and starting pitching to take WC1, while the Mariners fall back due to offensive struggles but remain above .500. The Angels get Angels’d late, as usual. The Athletics continue their slide with another deadline fire sale (fuck John Fisher).

NL East Braves: 102-60 (z) Phillies: 88-74 (w) Mets: 85-77 Marlins: 74-88 Nationals: 67-95

The Braves cruise to the top seed even with their pitching injuries as the rest of the division falls off. Harper carries the Phillies to WC2 as their pitching rebounds, while the Mets’ roster of expensive old guys never really gets going, but manages a respectable record due to sheer talent. The Marlins’ luck runs out eventually, as does the Nationals’, but this division is primed for a shakeup in the next year or so.

NL Central Brewers: 90-72 (y) Cubs: 85-77 Pirates: 83-79 Cardinals: 70-92 Reds: 65-97

The Brewers’ youth movement works, and they hang on for the lead in a surprisingly competitive division. The Cubs fall just short, snakebitten by close losses. The Pirates drop off but pull a 2022 Orioles by staying over .500. The Cardinals, unable to dig out of their early season hole, have their first 90-loss season since 1990. The Reds’ own youth movement is starting up, but the results are yet to come.

NL West Dodgers: 94-68 (y) Padres: 92-70 (w) Diamondbacks: 87-75 (w) Giants: 73-89 Rockies: 59-103

The Dodgers do typical Dodgers things, coming out on top of a back and forth division battle. The Padres rebound as their offense gets clicking, but can’t quite take the division, settling for WC1. The Diamondbacks snag WC3 on the strength of their young offensive core. The Giants continue their downward slide, while the failing-to-improve Rockies finally have a 100-loss season.

Playoffs

ALWC Rangers 2, Orioles 1 Twins 2, Blue Jays 1

NLWC Padres 2, Phillies 0 Diamondbacks 2, Brewers 1

ALDS Astros 3, Twins 1 Rays 3, Rangers 2

NLDS Padres 3, Dodgers 1 Braves 3, Diamondbacks 1

ALCS Astros 4, Rays 3

NLCS Padres 4, Braves 3

World Series Astros 4, Padres 2

[jose-berojos]

Caleb Thielbar getting yeeted off the team in 2015 was one of the greatest crimes of that Twins era. Most underrated reliever on the team right now. Love ya, birthday twin, hope you keep crushing it this year.

[zoeology31]

Twins moves so far this offseason, rated:

Urshela for Farmer double trade

Analytics: 🟩 Vibes: 🟥🟥

Vazquez signing

Analytics: 🟩🟩 Vibes: 🟩🟩

Correa leaving

Analytics: 🟥🟥🟥🟥🟥 Vibes: 🟥🟥🟥

Gallo signing

Analytics: 🟥🟩 Vibes: 🟩

Correa return

Analytics: 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 Vibes: 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩

Paddack extension

Analytics: 🟩 Vibes: 🟩

Arraez for Lopez trade

Analytics: 🟩🟩 Vibes: 🟥🟥🟥🟥🟥