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THE ASHFORD TOURNEY THEORY

— A comprehensive (updated) guide.

** Including Dunk and Brienne, Baelor, and Tanselle.

✧ This theory, originating in the 2010s, is based on the parallel similarity between the final champions we see at Ashford and Sansa Stark’s suitors in ASOIAF: so far, each of Lady Ashford’s champions has had a matching suitor in Sansa’s story, besides the last, the Targaryen.

✧ Setting:

Lady Ashford is a 13-year old maid, in honour of whom the Tourney at Ashford is hosted.

"The Tourney at Ashford Meadow was a tourney event hosted for Lady Ashford's 13th birthday. Five champions wearing her favour would defend her."

The five defending champions with which we end our narration of the tourney happen to exactly match the suitors of the 13-year old Sansa Stark, as she prepares the Tourney of Winged Knights.

**Note : Officially, there is no order to the champions, as the jousts happen in overlap / simultaneously, and the only in-text appearance is Day 1, told by Duncan.

Only the Hardyng pavillion is referred to as the fourth, and the Targaryen as the last. The Targaryen's victories also are said as the last.

✧ The champion - suitor connection, broken down:

LYONEL BARATHEON / JOFFREY BARATHEON

The name "Lyonel" means "lion", making him, literally, a "Lion Baratheon" [disc. GRRM is more than likely aware of this, and even has Lyonel as part of the 'lion' trio with Leo and Leona]

Joffrey, who is a Lannister bastard in truth, is also literally a "Lion Baratheon"

Along with Lannister, Lyonel challenges Lady Ashford's family, and defeats Lady Ashford's older brother Robert.

Along with the Lannisters, Joffrey challenges Sansa Stark's family, wages war on and defeats Sansa's older brother Robb.

"The younger Ashford lasted even longer, breaking no less than nine lances against Ser Lyonel Baratheon, the Laughing Storm." "Finally a battered Ser Robert Ashford admutted defeat" — The Hedge Knight

Lyonel falsely declares himself "King" in opposition to the true claimant, but the title doesn't last

Joffrey is falsely declared "King" in opposition to the true claimant, but it doesn't last

"The crowned stag was for Ser Lyonel Baratheon." - The Hedge Knight "He was carrying the royal standard, Joffrey's great stag-and-lion" — Tyrion V, ASOS

"So great was the wroth of the Laughing Storm that he swore a bloody oath of vengeance, renounced allegiance to the Iron Throne, and had himself crowned as a new Storm King." — TWOIAF "Joffrey waited atop the Iron Throne. [...] Ned Stark slowly limped and hopped toward the boy who called himself king." — Eddard XIV, AGOT

LEO TYRELL / WILLAS TYRELL

Leo Tyrell is a well-liked, honourable and respected jouster, known as "Longthorn", the Lord of Highgarden.

Willas Tyrell is described as respected, polite and good-hearted, the next Lord of Highgarden

Leo is notably rumoured to have health issues after the tourney

Willas is crippled in a tourney, which is said to have happened because his father wanted Willas to become Leo Longhorn

"..the most notable is Lord Leo Tyrell, a tourney champion remembered to this day as Leo Longthorn." — TWOIAF "They drank to the health of Leo Longhorn, Lord of Highgarden, who was rumoured to be ailing." — The Mystery Knight

"Willas Tyrell was green as his surcoat and had no business riding in such company. The Fat Flower thrust him into tourneys at too tender an age, just as he did with the other two. He wanted another Leo Longthorn, and made himself a cripple." — Tyrion V, ASOS

Willas is directly referred to by Sansa as her "champion"

"But comely or no, he might be the only champion she would ever have." — Sansa II, ASOS

[ Also, on the Loras inclusion, since he is mentioned in relation to Sansa believing her betrothal is to him, also compared to the same Leo Tyrell, and brought up within the same paragraph ]

"She could never hold a picture of Willas long in her head, though; her imaginings kept turning him back into Ser Loras, young and graceful and beautiful." "Willas, Willas, Willas.” Willas was as good a name as Loras, she supposed. They even sounded the same, a little." — Sansa II, ASOS

"There are those who say Ser Loras is better than Leo Longthorn ever was,” said Tyrion." — Tyrion V, ASOS

TYBOLT LANNISTER / TYRION LANNISTER

Tybolt is named for King Tybolt, who was the first to defeat the Andal army in the westerlands.

Tyrion's namesake is King Tyrion, who was the next to meet the Andal army, Tybolt's successor. In text, he is mentioned specifically in tandem with King Tybolt.

"The first Andal warlord to march an army through the hills met a bloody end at the hands of King Tybolt Lannister [...] but as more and more Andals began moving west in bands large and small, King Tyrion III and his son Gerold II saw their doom ahead." — TWOIAF

Tybolt [as well as the Baratheon] challenges and defeats Lady Ashford's older brother

Tyrion / the Lannisters challenge and defeat Sansa's older brother

"The Grey Lion of Casterly Rock struck the shield of Lord Tyrell, while his golden-haired heir Ser Tybolt Lannister challenged Lord Ashford’s eldest son." "Tybolt Lannister and Androw Ashford rode against each other thrice more before Ser Androw finally lost shield, seat, and match all at once." — The Hedge Knight

“And when do you imagine Sansa will be at her most fertile?” Tyrion asked his father in tones that dripped acid. “Before or after I tell her how we murdered her mother and her brother?” — Tyrion VI, ASOS

HUMFREY HARDYNG / HARRY HARDYNG

Important note: Hardyng is an extremely minor branch house. Humfrey and Harry are actually the ONLY two members ever appearing in the ASOIAF/AKOTSK text.

Humfrey is seriously wounded in the Ashford tourney, after his horse falls and crushes him. He later dies from his wounds in the Trial.

Curiously, Sansa, upon meeting Harry, wishes for his horse to stumble and cause them to fall in the tourney, too.

"Screaming, the horse crashed sideways, knocking the wooden barrier to pieces as he fell. Ser Humfrey tried to leap free, but a foot caught in a stirrup and they heard his shriek as his leg was crushed between the splintered fence and falling horse." — The Hedge Knight "[...] so we can begin the tourney on the morrow.” And may your horse stumble, Harry the Heir, so you fall on your stupid head in your first tilt." — Alayne I, TWOW

Humfrey is said to have "overthrown" the lords of Arryn and Royce, as well as won against the Tully challenger.

Harry is being used by LF as the successor to the Vale seat, in opposition to Arryn (Robert, half-Tully) and the Royces.

"The fourth pavilion was sewn together from diamond-shaped pieces of cloth, alternating red and white. Dunk did not know the colors, but Egg said they belonged to a knight from the Vale of Arryn named Ser Humfrey Hardyng. “He won a great melee at Maidenpool last year, ser, and overthrew Ser Donnel of Duskendale and the Lords Arryn and Royce in the lists.” "By then Ser Humfrey had beaten Lord Tully into surrender, showing himself as skilled with a sword as he was with a lance." — The Hedge Knight

VALARR TARGARYEN / ?

Note: The only, last, champion, who doesn't yet have a matching suitor in Sansa's arc, is the Targaryen. There is widespread speculation on this, but the parallels presented below, apply to JON SNOW and the surrounding characters.

Valarr is dubbed "The black prince with the white guardian", referred to as the "black knight" due to his black attire, and following guard

Jon is known for his black attire, as part of the "black knights" of the Wall & has a white direwolf that is said to be a "a guardian".

"And the black-and-white knight, Lord Gawen Swann, challenged the black prince with the white guardian." — The Hedge Knight “There was a wolf for Jon as well. I found them, remember? I know how many there were and where they came from. I used to think the same as you, that the wolves were our guardians. . ." — Catelyn II, ASOS

"The Young Prince's horse was black as night, to match the color of his armor.." "A black stallion emerged from out of the river mists, a black knight on his back. Dunk saw the dragon shield, and the red enamel crest upon his helm with its three roaring heads. The Young Prince. Gods be good, is it truly him?" — The Hedge Knight

"In the songs, they were called the black knights of the Wall" - Sansa III, AGOT "Jon was armored in black ice. . ." — Jon XIII, ADWD

Valarr is a dark-haired Targaryen prince. Him and Baelor do not look Targaryen, since they take after the maternal line.

Jon is a dark-haired Targaryen prince, with the same hair colour, who does not look Targaryen, since he takes after the maternal line (Stark).

"He [Baelor] does not look a Targaryen in truth, with that dark hair." "It is said he favors his mother." "The Young Prince had his father’s light brown hair, but a streak of silver-gold ran through it." — The Hedge Knight

Valarr's father, Baelor, shares parallels with Jon's father, Rhaegar.

✧ Other character parallels

BAELOR TARGARYEN / RHAEGAR TARGARYEN

Baelor is the father to Valarr, named for Baelor the Blessed

Rhaegar is the father to Jon, "Baelor the Blessed born again"

"Daeron bore the same name as the Young Dragon, but when his Dornish wife gave him a son he named the child Baelor, after the feeblest king who ever sat the Iron Throne." — The Sworn Sword "The maesters were awed by his wits, but his father’s knights would jest sourly that Baelor the Blessed had been born again. Until one day Prince Rhaegar found something in his scrolls that changed him." — Daenerys I, ASOS

Baelor donned all-black armor with only a red Targaryen sigil and dragon detailing where he was dealt the final blow by his relative in battle.. which which in turn led to the killer eventually becoming King.

Rhaegar donned all-black armor with only a red Targaryen sigil and dragon detailing where he was dealt the final blow by his relative in battle.. which in turn led to the killer eventually becoming King.

Baelor and Rhaegar are also both noted to ride a black stallion to match their armor.

"A black stallion emerged from out of the river mists, a black knight on his back. Dunk saw the dragon shield, and the red enamel crest upon his helm with its three roaring heads." — The Hedge Knight "And saw her brother Rhaegar, mounted on a stallion as black as his armor." - Daenerys IX, AGOT "...the Targaryen prince armored all in black. On his breastplate was the three-headed dragon of his House, wrought all in rubies that flashed like fire in the sunlight." — Eddard I, AGOT

"Prince Baelor. The scarlet dragon on his helm had lost a head, both wings, and most of its tail. [...] "It’s crushed down at the back, Your Grace, toward the left side. Smashed into the gorget." “Brother’s mace, most like,” Baelor said thickly. “He’s strong.” - The Hedge Knight "The waters of the Trident ran red around the hooves of their destriers as they circled and clashed, again and again, until at last a crushing blow from Robert’s hammer stove in the dragon and the chest beneath it." — Eddard I, AGOT

SER DUNCAN THE TALL / BRIENNE OF TARTH

Important note: Brienne is the only confirmed descendant of Duncan the Tall, personally by the author [2016], and the author himself also confirmed that she will be knighted [2025].

Ser Duncan: The tourney at Ashford was narrated (and, ultimately, interrupted), by Dunk, after he protected a young woman.

Brienne: As Sansa is held in the Vale & preparing for their tourney, Brienne sets out to search for her in order to become her protector.

Dunk is an unlikely knight, Kingsguard to Aegon V. He carried a shield with a green shooting star above an elm tree.

Brienne is an unlikely knight, Kingsguard to Renly. During her search for Sansa, she has her shield repainted as a homage to Dunk's, as she had seen it in her childhood.

“Yes,” Dunk said. “That would serve. An elm tree…but with a shooting star above. Could you do that?” The girl nodded. “Give me the shield.” — The Hedge Knight “It was more a picture than a proper coat of arms, and the sight of it took her back through the long years, to the cool dark of her father's armory. She remembered how she'd run her fingertips across the cracked and fading paint, over the green leaves of the tree, and along the path of the falling star.” — Brienne II, AFFC

Dunk introduces & portrays the "true knight" theme, which is fundamental to both Sansa's and Brienne's arcs.

"Heartsick, Dunk wheeled Thunder and raced back and forth before the tiers of pale, cold men. Despair made him shout. “ARE THERE NO TRUE KNIGHTS AMONG YOU?” - The Hedge Knight “You are a good man, Ser Duncan. A brave knight, and true.” "A true knight, Ser Duncan. A true knight." Dunk was turning red." — The Sworn Sword “My thanks, m’lord. You’re a true knight, it’s plain to see" [...] A true knight, she thought, frowning." — Brienne III, AFFC

“There are gods, she told herself, and there are true knights too. All the stories can't be lies.” — Sansa IV, ACOK

"Help me, she prayed, send me a friend, a true knight to champion me. . . She moved from tree to tree" — Sansa II, ACOK "Then the trees closed in around her, black as pitch and full of ghosts and memories. I am coming for you, Lady Sansa, she thought as she rode into the darkness. Be not afraid. I shall not rest until I’ve found you." - Brienne I, AFFC "And for me, thought Brienne, a prayer for me as well. Ask the Crone to raise her lamp and lead me to the Lady Sansa, and the Warrior to give strength to my arm so that I might defend her." — Brienne V, AFFC

TANSELLE TOO-TALL

Ser Duncan meets the woman he steps in to protect at Ashford, as she is telling us the story of Florian the Fool and Jonquil:

"This morning the puppeteers were doing the tale of Florian and Jonquil. [...] the tall girl held Jonquil’s strings. “You are no knight,” she was saying as the puppet’s mouth moved up and down. “I know you. You are Florian the Fool.” “I am, my lady,” the other puppet answered, kneeling. “As great a fool as ever lived, and as great a knight as well.” “A fool and a knight?” said Jonquil. “I have never heard of such a thing.” “Sweet lady,” said Florian, “all men are fools, and all men are knights, where women are concerned.” — The Hedge Knight

The story is both Sansa's favourite, and the most prominent in her arc. Tanselle's narration & play as Jonquil [1998] comes in the same year as Sansa being nicknamed "Jonquil" after the tale [1998] :

“Florian,” Sansa whispered. A shiver went through her. “Sweet lady, I would be your Florian,” Dontos said humbly, falling to his knees before her." "My Florian,” she whispered. “The gods heard my prayer.” [...] "he’ll keep me safe, my Florian. The songs about Florian and Jonquil were her very favorites." — Sansa II, ACOK “Sweet Jonquil, I’ve come. Your Florian has come, don’t be afraid.” — Sansa V, ASOS

[ note how similar the wording is in comparison to Brienne, and the way she speaks of finding & taking Sansa home ]

Tanselle even teasingly plays at quoting back Florian the Fool's words at Ser Duncan himself:

“I don’t…I’m not certain.” His ears were turning red, he realized miserably. “You must think me an utter fool.” She smiled. “All men are fools, and all men are knights.” — The Hedge Knight

& Brienne is among the people that recalls Florian, too. This comes as she thinks of protecting Sansa:

"It was a sword fit for a hero. When she was small, her nurse had filled her ears with tales of valor, regaling her with the noble exploits of Ser Galladon of Morne, Florian the Fool... [...] “You’ll be defending Ned Stark’s daughter with Ned Stark’s own steel." — Brienne I, AFFC

Sansa & Tanselle also share a tie through Aerion being linked to Joffrey's abuse, both directly and indirectly:

"Joffrey himself was waiting for her on the steps of the castle sept. The king was resplendent in crimson and gold, his crown on his head." "Her heart lurched. “Please, Your Grace,” she begged." — Sansa III, ASOS

"In the midst of it all stood Prince Aerion, resplendent in a red velvet doublet with long, dagged sleeves, twisting Tanselle’s arm in both hands. "She was on her knees, pleading with him." — The Hedge Knight

"Aerion’s quite the monster. He thinks he’s a dragon in human form, you know. That’s why he was so wroth at that puppet show." - The Hedge Knight "Aerion Brightfire was comely enough, but a monster all the same. The question is, what is Joffrey?" — Sansa I, ASOS

✧ Note that GRRM states the tourney & Trial at Ashford and the surrounding events [particularly Baelor's fate] are the event that changed Westeros' history, and hold great significance to him:

"in a 2022 interview promoting the first season of "HOTD", George R.R. Martin was asked which minor event changed the course of Westeros' history. His answer was: the climax of "The Hedge Knight" — Source

✧ Other reading & compliments:

There is a wonderful meta on Valarr's hair being a homage to Simon Snowlock, as well as a deeper dive into Valarr / Jon by @butterflies-dragons

GRRM on Brienne/Dunk being confirmed relatives and parallels [ 1 / 2 ]

Big thank you to the theorists, metawriters, wikiwriters and artists that contributed to the information and visuals compiled in this post.

✧ Art credits:

Lyonel Baratheon, Joffrey Baratheon, Duncan the Tall: Amok Leo Tyrell: The Marky Gallery Willas Tyrell: Mikey Booch Tybolt Lannister: Coogargore Tyrion Lannister: Jonathan Wesslund Humfrey Hardyng: Even Amundsen Harry Hardyng: Chillyravenart Valarr Targaryen: Debustee Jon Snow: EtceteraArt Rhaegar Targaryen: Michael Komarck Brienne of Tarth: Bella Bergolts Rhaegar & Robert: Michael Komarck Sansa at the Hand’s Tourney: Jonathan Burton Dunk at the Trial: Mike S. Miller

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