Iāve been pondering on the idea of overshoot lately. Basically, the world is going to go way past 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels before (possibly, maybe) cooling things down later. So if thatās where weāre headed, then COP canāt be all about prevention anymore. It needs to shift its focus to managing the mess.
I think the whole COP process needs a do-over, and fast. Not just setting targets and making pledges, but figuring out what happens after weāve already missed those targets. Of course thatās easier said than done, and we donāt want to make it seem like mitigation and adaptation efforts are futile because we wonāt make it anyway. Rather, we need to be made to feel the urge to do even more. Itās uncomfortable for sure to admit weāre at the forefront of disaster, but the sooner we admit it and act upon it, the more comfortable and reassured we will be in the near future when disaster strikes.
COP30, being hosted in Brazil of all places, should be centered around adaptation, loss & damage, and climate justice. These can no longer be side conversations, these need to be the main agenda. Also, carbon removal and geoengineering arenāt abstract ideas anymore. Theyāre coming, and they need real governance. Whoās in charge? Who benefits? Who bears the risks?
Overshoot isnāt the end, but it does mean the beginning of a very different kind of climate politics. COP needs to catch up.












