So news broke that Watanabe Mayu will be graduating AKB48 at the Saitama Super Arena
Nice news and all, but I am certain that there have been larger venues used before for members of similar stature when they left, or that the SSA was used for members of a smaller stature when they were leaving (Kawaei, Kuramochi et al)
Or could it be that large scale dome acts are becoming a bit of a thing for the past with regard to members leaving?
okay this very quickly got too long for your ask box shades so,
After Sasshi’s comment last night I got thinking: what if we had gotten new stages?
they never would have come out on the schedule they gave us, but say that each existing team got a new stage by the end of 2015. This would be after most of the big grads, and these new units would have been tied to newer gen members. The new girls would have had their own images, their own memorable songs to put their mark on the idol landscape. RH would be more interesting with wota competing for their new favs.
Instead of new48 being a gigantic akb cover band, they could develop their own style and sound without being compared to the ori members every time they step onstage. because right now that’s what 48g is. a cover band of itself.
new songs/units could have easily brought the new lifeblood that the group needed over the past two years, and i may not be a marketing genius, but I feel like giving new music to the you know, music group, could have kicked off the new era way better than a chicken nugget promotion and a fucking boat.
The thing is, I fell in love with the ori girls through the stages and unit songs. This singles were great, but you only get to see so much of each member in them. It was the stages where their personalities came out and they shined the most.
I have members of the 10+ gens that I like, but I never fell in love with any of them (minus lemon obvs) because apart from in variety, they are just replacements for the girls I knew. Giving the new gens their own foundation of great songs could have captured all those fans of the ori gens who were now without oshis and favorite teams.
What should have happened is one big shuffle, then 2 solid years of new stages. Can you imagine how popular some of the 10-15 gen combos could have been? A Tano/Tomu unit? A 3 Musketeers unit? A Jurina centered unit to help propel some of the newer SKE girls?
Yeah there were the Chu units and stuff, but they seemed like an afterthought tacked onto existing singles.
HKT has been a group, and bc of Sasshi, a driving force in the 48G for more than 4 years. And there are no stage songs I associate with them because they don’t have any. A group supposedly based around stage shows has no songs. Minus Sasshi, and maybe Sakura, the HKT members as a whole have fewer original songs than Team A.
Watching concerts got boring because as much as I love the old stage songs, I’ve seen them each a dozen times or more, and they never live up to the wonder of the originals. not because the new girls are worse, but because the stage songs will always be tied to the original members in the heads of fans.
Call me a cynic, but even Sasshi can see that akb is dying, and no amount of new ngt wota money is going to change that. New stages might have. And I am bitter af. There was a passion in old 48, something you could feel through the staff, the fans, and the amount of work and care put into the concerts and events. Everything I hear about now and over the past two years just feels like aki milking the last out of cash cow hooked up to life support. There’s not heart left. No core of familiar faces and lovable characters. The stages could have been a fresh start for 48g, a solid foundation upon which to launch new and exciting idols, just as iconic as the ori gens in time.
but no. instead we got a ton of talented 10-15 gen girls burning out and leaving because they realized that it just wasn’t worth it, a totally new team full of possible stars that got almost completely ignored, and a super hyped new cover band who apparently has a lot of money but almost nothing to spend it on.
I know just about every time I mention akb in the last years, I tend to do it in a mocking way or throwing shade
And that’s not because I hate the group
It’s because I once LOVED the group, they meant more to me than any single thing in the world, and it honestly hurts to see something so special get squandered the way it has.
I don’t doubt that there are people who see me on their dash nowadays and think, “if you really have nothing nice to say about akb, why are you still here? You’re clearly supporting other groups now so just move on already.” I get it. But for one thing, I’m still very much in love with what akb WAS, and for another, poking fun at it a little here and there is really the only outlet I have for how let down I feel by it.
Just for the heck of it, I’m gonna stick my neck out here one more time, and say that I honestly believe you guys are vastly overestimating the functions and impact of the theater in the grand scheme of things.
Sure, the theater has been a source of some pretty memorable performances, and it keeps the core, theater-going fandom happy by offering the chance to be in close proximity with their idols on a near-daily basis. Internally, the theater allows for less-popular members to build and maintain their core set of fans, and it has proven to be an effective training ground for junior performers and leadership personalities.
But beyond that, what do theater shows and new stages really do for 48G’s mainstream presence? Very little, in my opinion. An elitist, exclusive ticketing system and tiny, tightly-policed venues severely limits the theater as an option to market members to anyone outside of the most hardcore of fans, much less the general public. Yes, we have DMM to try and expand that market, but limited camera angles and average streaming quality don’t quite justify the paywall that one has to get over for their service.
You speak of stage songs giving the members personalities. I would argue that singles and albums do that just as well, with their exclusive units and solo performances being just as unique and memorable as those on stages, perhaps even more. Just look at how well that has worked for the Sakamichi series, and I believe that sort of success can and will translate into 48G’s context.
The bottom line is; for all its purported merits, the theater is ultimately a loss-making venture. For the amount of money and effort put into writing songs, designing costumes and choreographing dances for a new stage, you could just as easily produce and market one or two, maybe even three major-label singles, or even a whole album, with the financial gains and consumer impact (via handshakes, 2-shots and other such events) far outstripping anything the theater can achieve.
And since you brought STU48 into the argument, here’s my take on the matter. The potential impact of STU48 alone will also far surpass that of any new stage. What do stages do? Appeal to the core, theater-going crowd. What is STU48 going to do? Support domestic economies, draw attention to the rural and suburban areas it seeks to serve, and most critically, to provide a potential boost to the Setouchi tourism industry as it draws urban crowds towards the area. It’s pretty obvious to me which one should take priority.
True, the theater doesn’t help AKB’s mainstream appeal and neither is it very profitable. But the main issue is that Aki-P nowadays seems to be preoccupied with making $$$ and expanding the franchise. AKB’s singles especially have become hit and miss (and no amount of pretty visuals can hide that), the group is bloated and dying and as OP said, lots of talent are leaving.
Like what Shades said, the theater makes AKB unique, and more importantly, truly allows the members, all of them, to shine. Because singles, albums and concerts are dominated by top members, theater girls are always relegated to singing at the back of the team songs and the obligatory ALL48 song. Not helping things is the constant rehashing of stages - so what if Aki-P churns out team songs for singles and albums if they are only going to perform them in Request Hour and a few times a year in concerts? Stage performances build bonds and team spirit - just look at Ori Team K, and how their performances of Sasae or Sougen no Kiseki really shone.
Maybe it’s time that Aki-P and management returned to their roots instead of constantly expanding and trying to rake in more cash. Like OP, the stages were the ones that really got me hooked onto AKB and its members. And to see the decline of both the theater (although A7 was FAB) and quality of releases really is disheartening.
Hasn’t the profit motive always been the bottom-line? 48G is a business, not a charity (I mean, yeah, we have the Dareka no Tame Ni Project, but you get my drift). Was that not Aki-P’s plan right from the start, to kick off expansion of the franchise across Japan once the Tokyo group was successful, and maybe even beyond? The quality of our releases is highly subjective - we can argue all day about whether Negaigoto no Mochigusare is the best or worst election single ever, and still not come to any sort of consensus - but as far as I can tell, the consumers are still biting. We’re still at the top of the charts, and we’re still holding on to our share of airtime. That’s really all that should be of Management’s concern, shouldn’t it?
I might agree about AKB48 becoming bloated and suffocating under its own weight - perhaps between 2011 and 2013, we were recruiting far too many members for our own good. Teams were becoming overstuffed, and our KKS backlog was growing far too long. With that in mind, however, isn’t it for the better, then, that AKB48 is now being cut down to size? Trim off the excess, and keep the truly dedicated and highly motivated - A bit of an extreme statement, but isn’t that how any organization works?
And sure, the theater makes 48G unique, but at what cost? We’re getting our asses kicked by the Sakamichi series, and I don’t see them having a theater. We can talk about team spirit and letting members shine, but what’s the use if it doesn’t give them any sort of room to expand their audience? Unless Management takes a page from Broadway, relocates the theaters to larger venues (concert-hall-sized at the very least), and makes shows a lot more accessible to the regular layperson (why can’t it be as simple as buying a ticket to a movie?), I don’t see how stages are any more cost-effective than all the other other means of winning fans over (e.g. handshake events, guerilla lives, variety TV, etc.).
I’m sorry, maybe I’m being too pragmatic about this, but if you ask me, pragmatism is what this organization needs, both on the part of the members and the fans.
I just scanned through this, and honestly, both you guys have a point.
To @teamboshi : I get what you mean when you said the content is very lacking these days. I watched the elections in a group with friends, and one of the recurring themes with the old-timers is how little musical material there is to support any group, with many decisions made just for the capturing of fans.
Team 8 is pretty much a good example. What originally started off as “a side project to hawk Priuses” and was not going to be permament eventually became a full time deal, and just on the strength of one song, that one on Geography.
While fans enmeshed in the system can appreciate the constant novelty of new girls (all the pretty), new projects to remember, and the delight of not having to follow an endless amount of music material. only the single here and there, most of which are quite easy to enjoy...
The problem really starts when you try to derive long term understanding with the group. No b-sides to build understanding, to discover which girl is a surprisingly good performer, and most painfully, that there are plenty of hardworkers who get lost within the system.
Then again, @doctor48md has a point too. AKB48 is no longer that small-ragtag bunch of teenagers making pop music, but rather a pop culture monolith which deals with advertisers, Japanese statutory boards and fellow pop culture entities- it probably just as much a mix of commercial and artistry as K-Pop, only a bit less slicker.
Needless to say, something run like a business, has got to call for some of the businessman-like approaches of expediency and planning. Sure, singles are cliched, but how else are you going to get the attention of the many varied music listeners? And how else are you going to create such wide reach for a good portion of the more appealing girls without writing songs day in day out, or doing random songs?
Yeah, there are only a few popular girls who dominate most of the projects, but who said the entertainment business was an allocatively efficient one? It has always been one where winners take a large share of the spoils, as shown by how Sashihara Rino can become the “undisputed one”.
Yeah, there are also plenty of new me-too subgroups popping up, NGT, HKT (a few years back), Team 8, and now STU each of them with ever lesser unique selling points, aside from member age and the novelty from being a new group.
Yet, somehow these new groups always seem to find their footing, if because the fans know exactly what they want. A new member that appeals to them, a new song that is acceptably adequate, the novelty factor that comes with being first on board the new. That, and coupled with the fact that pop culture is to a large extent a movable resource. Look at it this way, did all the people that vote for NGT48 hail from Niigata? I would happily bet that some of them are AKB old stalwarts that fancied something new, in the same way you try a new car every four years or so.
Lastly, Showroom is to a certain extent, the new Theater. No new music, but a chance to check out the members’ personality up close!
I am not trying to out talk anyone here, it is more of trying to synthesise the points that made sense to me as a fan. I am not for or against everything, but rather, its more of what works for me as someone who is willing to look deeper into the group, and hence be more pointed in the criticism.
I welcome any form of civilised discussion and debate. Cheers.
So here carries on the thoughts discussed earlier.
1. Well done, Ogino Yuka!
Or should it be her fans, for pulling off a Leicester-esque feat of buying nearly 56k votes to give her the preliminary lead, and a secure spot in the senbatsu.
In fact, as the event rolled on, and as the vote numbers got called into the Kami 7 zone, it soon became even clearer the scale of her fans’ feats. In soon became a question where her numbers would peter out.
Turns out, at 80k, the initial fan rush actually did subside after the first day push, but when the dust settled at fifth position, it still became one of the highest position jumps in AKS history, and one of the true feel good stories of election history.
To go from being a reject of countless auditions to being the center of focus by fans and the media, well played indeed. Am just hoping this will have a more lasting effect that that of Sato Amina’s eighth place in the first ever election.
2. The most contestible-desirable position ever: #16
Every year, with the exception of the 2013 election* and the 2015** election, around 3000 votes seemingly separate position #16 (the lowest rung in the Senbatsu ladder) and position #17 (the highest rank in the undergirls) and at some times, the members in position #18, or even #19.
The closeness in the votes, depending on the year, basically shows how much of a high stakes game it is for fans, to strategise votes to get their girls into the “Upper Houses”.
This year the Umeda Ayaka*** award goes to NMB48′s Yoshida Akari, who with 35,540 votes, nabbed the coveted #16, ahead of Mukaichi Mion’s 34,201 votes. A difference of 339 votes
Putting it another way, the price of a nice Swiss automatic watch, divided out among the number voters, made all the difference. I am sure some measure of value can be quantified there.
* There was an SKE48 stonewall there
** As above but an AKB48 stonewall here. Two things of note here: #16 was an anomaly, and the difference between #16 and #17 was just 60 votes.
***Named after the member who in 2012, had fans who pulled out the stops to earn a 1500 vote margin
3. Mukaichi Mion - Couldn’t Lose, Can’t Lose either way
For all the rumblings about taking a position hit from #13 to #17, for a member who was heavily pushed into Senbatsu, and widely featured in most forms of media, including drama, maybe it was not so bad for her.
Look at it this way: Being the top gun in the second tier, she is pretty much guaranteed a centre position in the music video and song feature, plus with her being a management favourite, the video and positioning will be further tilted in her favour.
If exposure is key, I would argue that this is far better than the alternative of being in the senbatsu video, and having air time measured in seconds.
Its not so much one option being better than the other, but rather the options sort of evening out, such that Mukaichi in my opinion, does not lose.
Besides, there is also the argument the B-side could be a great song. Let’s see, we had Tobenai Agehachou, Dakishimecha Ikenai, Kimi Ni goto suki da kara, to just name a few.
So who said the Undergirls had to be the absolute cheap seats?! :D
The Comeback post plus thoughts on the AKB48 Sousenkyo (Part 1)
Yeah I am not dead :D
Between a renewed push to study and tinkering with a buttload of hobbies, I amazingly have not lost interest in AKB48, or to be more precise the Sousenkyo. Maybe its the perpetual novelty of watching ranks, the emotions it can stir up and how brings out the more analytical/erudite sides in me.
So here goes:
1. When best really just ain’t enough
You know you really can feel for the girl when you are neutral for the girl, and yet when she lets out a roar of frustration at finishing third (AGAIN!), you totally get it. That frustration
I am talking about Matsui Jurina. Another year, another shot, and a renewed push with intensity (this time around no more dicking about with those Request Hour votes), and third again.
So what happened? They got the proportion of votes to buy right... up to a point. Like last year, Jurina got 120k votes there about, and expressed as a proportion of overall album sales, more than last year’s percentage. They also got the voting strategy right, as shown by the first day numbers, high enough to be in the running, yet not high enough to force everyone else into showing their hands and engaging in voting frenzies.
The problem is that maybe, Jurina oshis got the numbers in a far too rational way.
Look at it this way, all the way up to position 6, the next member up only had at most a margin/breathing space of less than 6000 votes. In fact, if 6000 votes were at random redistributed to any member below position 10, there would be a change in a position of anyone instantly
Example:
10. Kitahara Rie (NGT48 - Team NIII, 45,684) (↑2)
11. Takahashi Juri (AKB48 - Team 4, 42,663) (↑4)
12. Shiroma Miru (NMB48 - Team M, 41,491) (↑12)
13. Homma Hinata (NGT48 - Team NIII, 41,230) (NEW)
14.Furuhata Nao (SKE48 - Team KII, 40,202) (↑15)
15.Takayanagi Akane (SKE48 - Team KII, 38,576) (↑5)
16. Yoshida Akari (NMB48 - Team M, 35,540) (↑61)
17. Mukaichi Mion (AKB48 - Team K, 35,201) (↓4) (Undergirls Center)
18. Matsumura Kaori (SKE48 - Team KII, 34,977) (REENTER)
19. Minegishi Minami (AKB48 - Team K, 34,688) (↓2)
20. Sutou Ririka (NMB48 - Team N, 31,779) (↑24)
In this case, if the Minegishi got the 6000 (giving it to her out of respect, yo!), she would instantly be in the senbatsu again, a throwback to 2012,
So we assume votes increase in this pleasantly linear fashion, Jurina would have the pleasant side of 120-130K votes. Yuko style numbers, and a Yuko style victory.
Only that past the top five, that logic no longer holds.
Sashihara Rino (HKT48 - Team H, 246,376) (-) (Senbatsu Center)
Watanabe Mayu (AKB48 - Team B, 149,132) (-)
Matsui Jurina (SKE48 - Team S, 113,615) (-)
Miyawaki Sakura (HKT48 - Team KIV, 82,803) (↑2)
Ogino Yuka (NGT48 - Team NIII, 73,368) (↑90)
See what I mean? Its as if you practically need an F16 to be pulling away and take victory.
It must really hurt again for Jurina, to work the game out right, play well and still not win, by virtue of just facing two taller walls.
As for the eventual day she wins, I have a feeling she is going to be pretty divided in terms of the feels. There is going to be frustration from winning by virtue of the two walls pulling out (spoiler alert), but hey, there’s no shame in winning with Yuko numbers, and its a narrative many years in the making.
2. When the final boss really is THAT final boss.
You could apply all that I said earlier over to Watanabe Mayu fans. If anything, same game as above, only with a fair chunk more margin.
Except, once again... I don’t feel like repeating exactly the same thing I said last year.
Probably far more interesting was what she said
3. So Sashihara takes it, once again!
Credit once again to her fans for seemingly pulling out yet another victory for her, and by that same very unassailable margin.
Sure there are plenty of murmurs about wealthy fan blocs, but then again, every other senbatsu member has one of those too. I think what truly matters for her is the sheer breadth of her fan base, which also comes as part of her job scope.
Managing a new team, and pushing it to the top, trading witty repartees on Japanese television, shilling the products endorsed by AKS partners. Basically, she is everywhere.
Another thing about her is she is no longer the bumbling hetare of old, but rather an astute player in the world of idol pop culture. Sometimes its not just about what you do, but how you do and present yourself.
And as my sis said “you can never get bored of a good story of coming back from scandal”
1. It is not a ear-worm! I think no fan would like how cliched that would be.
2. It is kind of safe and listenable in the same way that rather generic 90s-early 00s pop would be. Finally, there is less of that 80s air that has afflicted AKS singles.
There is a pretty thin line about being retro-cool and creating sounds that are open pastiches, and I think AKS has crossed that too many times, fun it may have been occasionally.
3. The line distribution is quite even, and there appears to be a sense of fun by the performers. Certainly not on the likes of the Hebirote and Koi No Fortune Cookie energy levels, but not exactly a off-key snooze fest either.
4. It might one day be a running joke that English in Korean/Japanese idol pop songs will always be hopelessly mangled. If the words are monosyllabic (like ‘Shy’ or ‘Yes’) or has been successfully turned into a Japlish or Kongrish form (like ‘Halloween Night’ , then okay.
If its none of the above, then interesting takes on said words always ensue.
With the supposed news that Mayu and Sasshi would most probably drop out of the 2017 AKB48 Senbatsu Sousenkyo, and Jurina running for the umpteenth time in her SKE/AKB career, the tide would most probably be clear for her to win.
Here’s what might happen:
1. When J goes up on stage to get her trophy, she most probably would break down. I mean, its been years of trying and finally!
2. The fans would say it is in her destiny.
3. There will be a blanket ban on the word “flop” on any AKB48 forum worldwide.
4. There will a Yellow bus tour for the SKE fans to celebrate having finally “brought the trophy home, where our center reigns”
5. There will be some jibber-jabber in certain web quarters on how Jurina can be considered in the category of GOATs (Greatest Of All Time).
6. A few days after a win, SKE members will start talking all day about breaking away from the Mothership.
7. The move will culminate in a plan for a referendum, which the group will decide if they are “better together” or “safe to fly higher on their own”
8. The seniors will push very hard for independence, saying it was what they had dreamt of, to forge their own destiny away from the shadows, while juniors fret all day about career advancement.
9. To assuage their fears, stories will be told all day of girls who joined the Mothership and were never as big as they could have been. In that sense, staying independent might have helped.
10. Avex might actually give them full support, until a manager, during a board meeting, comments “Oh F--k, E-girls!”
11. The vote will end in a 48-52, or 52-48 split, and will be debated on for days, as it takes months for the groups to uncouple.
12. Emboldened by the move, other sister groups start coming up with ever more plans to secede.
13. Except for HKT48, who when pressed for a comment, said “If everyone leaves, where are all our friends gonna come from?!”
Apparently it wasn’t for want of trying by Mayu fans
According to online forum chatter/discussion/analysis, it turned out that the Chinese Watanabe Mayu support community cast 82, 599 votes this year, more than twice the numbers last year.
Now I do why the second place really rankled with fans. They really did try, but even then they could not justify those Sashihara numbers.
As usual, it always takes “the elections” to bring me out of 48G hibernation, find a viewing party, watch the whole thing go down, and then type thoughts down.
With each year, new patterns emerge, but at the same time, some old patterns are here to stay. Here's a breakdown of the noteworthy trends. This is more of a qualitative analysis, which can be backed up by all the stats floating around.
Some trends I noted:
1. Pushes do hold, they just take time to happen
One of the funny things about following 48G all these years is hearing how fans/management hype up new members, saying that either they are gonna rank high, or burst though, only for reality to set in, that the voting traction was just not there that year. And then, just when you give up following them statistically, they magically rank in, and hold the spot!
A good example is probably Kato Rena (2016 position #26) , who never ranked in all the years she was hyped to enter (2012, 2013), before emerging as a regular fixture in the Undergirls the past three years. Looks like the management effort on her did not go to waste after all.
Another example of the “steady creep up” is Muto Tomu (#10), who secured a senbatsu position on the fringe last year and made reasonable inroads into a “safer” position.
Similar cases could also made for Kawamoto Saya (#27), Komiyama Haruka (#21), Mukaichi Mion (#13), Okada Nana (#14) and Takahashi Juri (#15), who finally converted the mass media exposure and neutral analyst's faith into real performance.
Of course, the push showing in record speed is still the stuff of legend, and NGT48 did do their part, with Kato Minami ranking at #78. Not bad for a group that is just... starting out.
2. Or is it?
Readers of my similar post last year would recall me mentioning something called the Rena effect, which had two very interesting consequences:
- Takayanagi Akane fulfilling her desire to make AKB senbatsu by vote.
- Tani Marika making a very massive jump into the Undergirls in her debut vote appearance.
Fast forward a year, and Takayanagi is back (a bit sadly) at the upper edges of Undergirls, while Tani took an admittedly massive hit, down 32 positions into #55.
So what happened? My guess is that plenty of the votes, from Hako oshis who were about to vote for Rena when the news of her impending graduation broke, were convinced to put their votes in places where Rena would prefer to make things happen. When 2016 came, most of the “Hako vote inflows” left, resetting things to where they were originally.
Now cast your mind back to 2016, and this time its Takahashi Minami announcing “the move”. Now, Hako oshis are convinced to vote for members that Takamina prefers, or likes, and they think have potential to shape the new AKB48, or make good things happen. Next thing you know, “Hako votes” are going all around making things happen for various members that are watched closely.
With the exception of Kato Rena and Muto Tomu, who seem to have secured their votes from a fixed fanbase, it remains to be seen if these positions and numbers can be sustained as “lasting fans” or have dropped from an “outflow of Hako votes”.
3. And all of the pushes that never really worked out
Kizaki Yuria. Maybe its an exception to the rules above, but her name probably serves (awkwardly) as ammunition for the “should've stayed with SKE” camp.
4. Voter inflation and stagflation is real, even in AKB land
To put it in simpler terms, it is when vote number changes (usually growth) simply fails to keep track with the higher numbers required to secure the preferred member position (inflation)
2015 Votes
2016 Votes
As you can see over the last two years, the point of entry into the top 80 has stayed sort of the same, but the numbers to secure any position above 70 has always seemed to go up bit by bit over the years. These have resulted in three scenarios.
1. Member gains vote numbers, enough to track new vote requirement curve, advances positions (Ueki Nao 2016 #58, Shibuya Nagisa 2016 #56, Takeuchi Mai #54)
2. Member gains or maintains votes numbers, but not enough to track new vote requirement curve, drops positions more gradually (Moriyasu Madoka 2016 #50, Kojina Yui 2016 #53).
3. Member loses vote numbers, does not track new vote requirement curve, drops positions big time (Tani Marika 2016 #55, Sakaguchi Riko 2016 #59)
5. In Spite of That, You Still Gotta Hand it to HKT48 and SKE48 for their member representation in numbers
Honestly, the latter have always played an A game in getting as many members as possible in the lower ranks of the elections. Because, lets be frank, if you set up a Hako oshi voting cartel with a few friends, and less than three thousand votes to spare among all of you, which section would you rather “game”?
Future Girls and Upcoming Girls (AKA Lower Tier)
Undergirls and Next Girls (AKA Upper Tier)
Obviously, which is why SKE can always produce centres in the “lower houses”, and on average get more people in the ranks than the vote shy NMB-ians (I trademark that term).
AKB this year also did step up their game too, with Team 4 finally breaking out of the shadow of being “That other team of numbers”, having members make impacts on the chart and giving AKB for the first time in years, representational majority! The much-vaunted Team 8 also did manage to get a member in. Again, finally
For 2016 though, HKT also seemed to have mastered this game well. Let's chalk up their achievements:
- Got a mix of known and less prominent faces into the various tiers of songs.
- Got their young aces into Senbatsu.
- Got their uber pushed lolicons into fine debut ranks.
- Got their absolute leader the absolute position, with a commanding lead
Speaking of which
6. No recount needed
Talk about the big guns now, especially at the top. Seriously, if the difference in votes was almost 69,000 (to put things into perspective, that's at least 700 thousand Singapore dollars spent on votes), would a recount have changed things?
But could we have even guessed from the prelims (bottom diagram)? After all, things still looked like it was within the 5% margin which could be overtaken easily. My guess was that the Sashihara camp chose to set out a certain amount of votes, to which they used the first day results to roughly benchmark things. After all, the first day results always tracked votes decently in the top 5 side of things. As long as they were in keeping with Mayu results, it was just a matter of proportioning and calling on those reserves.
But that still does not explain those reserves, or come to think of it, how far the result was from sentiment, net chatter, or even past AKB mothership voting patterns. After all history has shown that AKB voters will rather vote less members in, then to lose Mayu's absolute vote count. So how was it that Sashihara managed to gain so many votes, and yet not at the expense of HKT quantity representation? Beats me. Anyway what's pretty certain is how all the Mayu hype fizzed out like that Yuki hype last year, when all that pushing led to a so near yet so far situation. Only this time, its like coming in second in a 400m race, 100m behind the victor.
The preliminary stats however were accurate enough to call time on the Jurina and Sayaka challenges. Despite all the net chatter about a Dark horse No. 1, and how web fans all over were gonna pump votes into these “next big things”, the honest truth is that such massive gaps are not gonna be covered, and that's presuming the powerhouses gave up on the game in the first place.
Moral of the story: Net hype ain't the be all and end all of votes.
Speaking of which...
7. Maybe J fans should just stop giving up trees for the forest.
At the fan screening I attended, a Jurina fan scarcastically commented on the position, “If they stopped spending cash on the request hour votes, which only make for fansite news, they would stop creating ridiculous hype, and maybe have more actual cash for the real deal, and maybe make the Japanese broadsheets”. Pointed and blunt it might be, but the more I thought about it, it did make some sense.
Then again, it is not game over. Assuming that Mayu or Sasshi get tired of the endless gauntlet challenging, its a clear path for Jurina next year!
8. The light side of things.
It ain't all stats and number crunching and inferencing, you know!
- There's probably a good reason why senior members in recent years want out of voting. If what fans go through is stressful (think along the lines of Euro 2016 managers pacing the line in the midst of games), its probably worse for the idols. You won't really wanna see heart rate numbers for things like this.
- I was happy that Motomura Aoi's rank and vote count went up in a big way, after that #80 blow last year. I guess her diplomatic and rather high EQ response to being dropped from the latest HKT senbatsu did win her a ton of closet fans.
- Once again, Kojina Yui gives us the show of the election. Equal parts hilarious and “wait what”, it will once again be the subject of endless online discussion.
- You gotta respect how the announcer gladly made a few announcing mistakes along the way. Keeping it live, in a sense.
- I am still not sure what to feel about Kojima Haruna announcing graduation at the event. Is it supposed to a “finally” or “what now” or the thousand and one other expressions in between. Whatever it is, its not dismissable by a shrug, especially since she’s been in AKB48 since Forever?
- As usual in all my guess the winner games, I can never call any position correctly, except for the top 3 positions.
- Once again, too many faces I liked, I did not see in the rankings...
Talking Points from Apink Pink Memory Day 2016 in Singapore
Considering the ambivalent attitude I have at times toward Apink, it might seem odd that I would choose to watch a two hour live event featuring them on my tab.
Its not often that one of Korea’s most famous girl groups would have an event locally, with tickets relatively easily obtained. To put things into perspective, SNSD tickets for their annual concert here are perpetually over-subscribed.
Besides, an argument could be made that seeing any music act live could produce a ton of differing perspectives.
Overall, the event did meet my expectations, and I had my fair share of fun, singing along to some of the songs like most of the fans, along with cheering and applauding at some of the girls spirited antics.
Here are some of the insights I had of the event:
1. Mainstream Group = Mainstream Fans
It is too easy to think that with their cutesy singles, and their extensive profiling in a past international news article on uncle fans buying lunch boxes for their idols, the enduring image of an APink fan is that of a salaryman in his 40s, who has given up some family time to indulge in a bit of escapism.
In reality, the most iconic sight (at least from where I was seating), were the two fan girls to my right, and the 10-year old girl in front of me waving Yoon Bomi banners in the air. You heard me right, Apink does sell to the female demographic.
I also saw parents accompanying their children (they need not have worried, the event is as G-rated as it gets), couples on date night(do they agree on biases?) and young adults just seeking a good event for the weekend. Heck, I even managed to strike up decent conversation with my seat mate on life outside K-Pop, working life, and have running commentary on the event’s proceedings.
Granted, there were some of the more geeked-out fans decked out entirely in Pink Panda paraphernalia, and they did get more attention from the show’s MCs, but they definitely were the minority. Whoever said APink were just a fringe interest?
2. The Small Screen =/= The Real Life Experience
I know its a bit of a cliché these days, but its all too easy to jump to conclusions that really stick from watching countless performances on YouTube, only to have them either get shattered, altered, or at times, reinforced.
Here are some impressions:
- They do have really good skin. Seriously, it must the weather or water there, or just quality BB cream. A side note: Bomi is quite heavily freckled in real life when viewed up close, but honestly, does it really matter?
- Hayoung looks way better in real life than on the screen. She comes across as taller, more proportionally sized, and whisper it, far more charismatic when seen for real.
- The opposite was true of Chorong, who had a sort of more laid back presence in real life, preferring to let the other members guide on-stage proceedings and work up the show. Where she does shine though, is in interaction close-up. I mean, props to her for really looking me in the eyes and showing genuine appreciation when I thanked her and the group for putting up as good a show as was possible.
- Naeun was also one of the members for whom in real life, I struggled slightly to see what the K-fan buzz was all about. Its not the looks, cause she looked just as good in real life as on the telly, and yes she does have curves in the right places. Its probably more to do with how she seemed that bit withdrawn in the group games, and that bit diffident in performance. She was in no way rude though, just you know, slightly less engaged.
I give her props though for her surprisingly fluent English, which sounded the least like a self absorbed soliloquy, and most like genuine two way interaction with the crowd. The “English” runner-up was most probably Eunji, though I would chalk that up to her ridiculously high levels of confidence (more on that later)
3. Jung Eunji Near as Single-handedly Justifies The Price of Admission
She is the real deal. It is not just the singing. which never put a foot wrong, but rather how her sheer charisma and genuine passion for the stage simply shines through.
If you have read past interviews with cast, crew, or generally people she’s worked with, they always tend to say the same thing about how she’s ridiculously capable at charming people, being so engaging. I used to think that was bunk and just stuff written in the name of promotion. Until I saw her in real life...
Be it inserting ridiculously sharp wise cracks at the right moment (My first love is the Singaporean food! Opps I mean fans. Yeah, then food), strutting around stage to pose for fans, or just revelling in the games, Eunji is just great fun.
A good metaphor for her capabilities would be ex-AKB member Oshima Yuko. They both love the stage, can get very connected with it, and seem oh so natural and engaging with the proceedings. That in turn also gives them an air of approachability and charm, and make it so entertaining for the fans.
And did I mention that she sings just as well live and looks the bee’s knees? Eunji most useful member in Apink.
4. They Got Good Jam (in the Korean context) And Real Camaraderie
These days, it is not just essential that girl groups look good and sing decent ditties. They also gotta know how to keep fans engaged with interesting games that pack clever twists. Sure enough, they met expectations in that area, with some pretty interesting mimes with fans, and the highlight of the event, the various members doodling in a sketchbook which was then presented to two very lucky fans. Now that alone for these fans would’ve been worth the ticket.
To their credit, the girls also played along nicely with the fans, which not only was cool for those lucky enough to get called on stage, but also proved fun viewing for the “unlucky” ones seated.
Then again, when you’ve been group mates for near as five years, some interactions come across near as naturally. I spotted Chorong and Bomi being quite naturally chummy, Eunji seemingly clicking with Hayoung, and tons of other small moments where they seemingly enjoyed each other’s companies, even under the eyes of the fans. Oh and did I mention they did all they could to still make Namjoo, who was waylaid by a neck injury, still feel involved?
5. The A-sides Where All The Money at, But The B-sides Just as Cool
Not going to lie, the crowd all got moving at the hit singles, which included “Mr Chu”, “Remember” and “LUV” among them, and at times the whole thing felt like a peppy cheer session with lots of singing by the fans in between.
It is too easy to come to the conclusion that APink then is a group largely consisting of hit singles, with the rest of the material being destined to be album filler.
If that were truly the case, the concert would be truly very dull. Thankfully, the B-sides are quite engaging in a concert setting. I quite liked the cutesy pop sounds of “Cat” (off their first album), “Sunday Monday” was a nice listen and “Secret” did a decent job of showing how most of the members could carry a tune.
The last point was pretty important cause most of the time, watching them on TV, the popular perception is that only half of the members do the vocal heavy lifting, with the rest coasting along. Sure, Eunji, Bomi and Namjoo do most of the singing, but when seen live, everybody does get engaged in the work of performing and that includes the singing.
6. The Hong Yookyung era was magically airbrushed
Considering how many of the fans have been there since they group first started out, it seems mildly incredulous that the group’s early material was largely overlooked, with only ‘Cat” and “My My” surviving the cut. As good as “My My” was, it would’ve been nice to see “I Don’t Know” being performed, since it was the one that started it all
Well, at least that era was not all too adversarial. During the 5th anniversary footage, Yookyung was left in there, and the whole thing seemed quite cordial. If anything, the tears the members shed was more for the hard work it took to reach this stage in their career.
7. There is no 7th Point. Get Over it
I would however leave post slightly open for random discussions, ranging from Bomi’s “I Heart Cold beer” T-shirt to the hapahazard nature of concert logistics. As for talk on upcoming singles, all I got at the event was a thirty second sample of an upcoming single, which sounded pretty much like singles past from the looks of it.
Now that’s a topic for another time. The concert was fun though, for reasons aplenty, and Eunji is quite awesome, though the other members had appeal of their own.
I’ll admit, I’m quite interested to see how this NCT group’s Tokyo unit will match up against Japan’s current industry leaders.
Yeah, K-pop has a not-insignificant presence in Japan, but this is, if I’m not wrong, the first time we’re having the Koreans set up shop in Japan, to fight the Japanese on their home turf. I don’t think we’ll be seeing 48G cross swords with them right from the start, considering the two entities likely appeal to rather different demographics, but it’ll be interesting to see what Johnny’s response is to this incursion, since chances are, they’ll be the “first line of defense”.
NCT’s parent company, SM Entertainment and Johnny’s actually have a lot more in common than commonly thought. Both are huge companies in their home turf, both are very successful at marketing to wide common denominators, both are basically the brainchild of one man who has perfected the art of pop as a product which you would keep desiring, and both are very good at tefloning away scandal (member lawsuits in the case of SM, child abuse allegations and company near-implosion for Johnny’s)
And did I mention both companies alternate between making really good and really rubbish tunes!
For denying me the chance to listen to Dakishimecha Ikenai one more time.
The powers that be that upload the AKB48 catalogue, for some reason, have the awful habit of removing older songs from Spotify, despite still holding distribution rights.
Not pressing the emergency button, despite being one of her biggest fans. It was bound to happen eventually.
Either way, will NOT shed bitter tears. She has made the best of most things that came her way, achieved a fair chunk, and crucially, always had a band of loyal fans around her.
Plus she chose to announce her departure in the most graceful of circumstances; after singing her Trademark song!
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