You Used to Call Me on My Cell Phone: Why That Hotline Bling May Not Ring
Hip-Hop is hotter than ever—from radio to festivals to sales. And one of the genre's top artists, Drake, is having a great year. His album If You’re Reading This It’s Too Late is the top selling Hip-Hop/Rap album this year with over one million copies sold. He was also featured on 25 Billboard Hot 100 singles in 2015. Millennials view him as 77% more "social media savvy" than the norm for the hip-hop/rap industry. Now, his music video for the latest hit “Hotline Bling” has launched an Internet and dance craze.
But this new video tells a sad tale of a romance fading over time. In it, he sings: “You used to call me on my cell phone /Late night when you need my love.” Where once he would get late-night calls from a significant other, Drake’s cellphone no longer rings like it used to.
Given what Nielsen knows about Telecom data, we wondered: Has his lover moved on, or is it possible that cellphone users just don’t call as much?
According to Nielsen Mobile Insights, 31% of U.S. wireless subscribers describe their voice calling usage as “low,” up from 28% at the end of 2014. While this change indicates a significant shift in habits, the difference itself is fairly small. Probabilistically, if Drake’s girl called him in the past, not much has changed about her wireless habits now.
Similarly, we looked at the year-over-year change in the amount of mobile calls that consumers say they place or receive. Guess what Drizzy? Across all ages and ethnic groups, the number of calls on average has been fairly steady (with a change of less than one call per day on average) in the past year. You say that “Nothing Was the Same,” but in fact it seems that habits are consistent.
We wondered if these calls were late-night calls as specifically mentioned in the song. We took a look at the New York market to see how calling has changed throughout the day. In September 2015, the average Nielsen Mobile Performance panelist made or received 28 mobile calls between 10 p.m. and 3 a.m. a month (so about an average of one late-night call per day). So some people’s phones are still ringing at those hours—just not that of our protagonist.
Maybe she texts now? Possible, but the percentage of subscribers who use text messaging has only ticked up 1 point year-over-year (78% to 79%), so again this isn’t too likely a causal inference into Drake’s sadness.
Drake may want to cover his ears for this part. We took a look at Americans' use of a popular dating app over the course of an average day in August 2015. Perhaps Drake’s former caller has been looking to a different source late night when she needs love. While these apps are very popular post-primetime, usage peaks at 8 p.m. to 9 p.m. That said, if you assume people begin on an app and then jump to meeting in real life, things to don’t look so good. She could be on a dating app at 9 p.m. and then on the date itself by 10 p.m.—around the time she used to call him on his cellphone.
All-in-all we didn’t find any evidence that all hotlines bling less than they used to. It might still be the case. Or it might just be that Drake left the city—not good if her mobile plan doesn’t include long distance minutes. Blame it on the Goose, blame it on the ‘Tron, but don’t blame it on the general trends in voice usage among wireless consumers.
In full disclosure, these data are for U.S. wireless subscribers. Drake, famously, is from Toronto. So hey, benefit of the doubt Drake. Maybe the market for love is different up North.
Sources: Nielsen Music, Nielsen N-Score, Nielsen Mobile Insights, Nielsen Smartphone Analytics, Nielsen Mobile Performance
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