Rhaegar part II: The Doomed Prince
There was a melancholy to Rhaegar, a sense… of doom.
When you heard him play his high harp with the silver strings and sing of twilights and tears and the death of kings, you could not but feel that he was singing of himself and those he loved.
Any new theory about Rhaegar’s plans and motivations should begin with a basic understanding of his character. So what do we know about the disposition and interests of the Prince of Dragonstone? While we have to rely on secondhand accounts that may be unreliable or driven by ulterior motives, The general outline of Rhaegar’s character is clear- he was intellectual and deeply melancholic.
Barristan describes him as “bookish to a fault,” saying the Maesters were “awed by his wits.” Moreover, he seems able to apply and synthesize his knowledge for practical effect, avoiding Aerys I’s complete uninterest in non-intellectual affairs. Barristan emphasizes that Rhaegar is: “Able. That above all. Determined, deliberate, dutiful, single-minded.” In addition to his intellect, Rhaegar is characterized by his depressive tendencies. As a child, “Rhaegar took no interest in the play of other children,” according to Barristan. He makes this point more explicitly in AFFC, stating “There was a melancholy to Rhaegar, a sense… of doom. He was born in grief, my queen, and that shadow hung over him all his days.” We also have Cersei’s description of her first meeting with Rhaegar: “Cersei had almost drowned in the depths of his sad purple eyes. ‘He has been wounded,’ she recalled thinking, ‘but I will mend his hurt when we are wed.’” These are scarce descriptions, and primarily based on Barristan’s descriptions to Daenerys, Rhaegar’s sister. So there is certainly reason to be skeptical, but I think there is sufficient evidence that Rhaegar is a fiercely intelligent depressive.
To develop a proper understanding of Rhaegar’s motivations, we’ll also need to dig into his interest in prophecy. While I was initially surprised by how few passages in the text mention Rhaegar’s prophetic inclination, @nobodysuspectsthebutterfly showed that there is in fact a powerful case to be made. Below, I’ll briefly argue that Rhaegar is deeply interested, if not obsessed, with prophecy, But you can read Butterfly’s post for a deeper examination of the relevant pieces of text.
Before his death, Maester Aemon discusses the prophecy of The Prince That Was Promised, and Rhaegar’s opinions about it:
Rhaegar, I thought … the smoke was from the fire that devoured Summerhall on the day of his birth, the salt from the tears shed for those who died. He shared my belief when he was young, but later he became persuaded that it was his own son who fulfilled the prophecy, for a comet had been seen above King’s Landing on the night Aegon was conceived, and Rhaegar was certain the bleeding star had to be a comet. (AFFC, Samwell IV)
Clearly Rhaegar had substantial familiarity with this prophecy, and discussed it at length with his wise great-grand-uncle. In Dany’s vision of Rhaegar in The House of the Undying, we see even better evidence of Rhaegar’s passion for prophecy:
Viserys, was her first thought the next time she paused, but a second glance told her otherwise. The man had her brother’s hair, but he was taller, and his eyes were a dark indigo rather than lilac. “Aegon,” he said to a woman nursing a newborn babe in a great wooden bed. “What better name for a king?”
“Will you make a song for him?” the woman asked.
“He has a song,” the man replied. “He is the prince that was promised, and his is the song of ice and fire.” He looked up when he said it and his eyes met Dany’s, and it seemed as if he saw her standing there beyond the door. “There must be one more,” he said, though whether he was speaking to her or the woman in the bed she could not say. “The dragon has three heads.” He went to the window seat, picked up a harp, and ran his fingers lightly over its silvery strings. Sweet sadness filled the room as man and wife and babe faded like the morning mist, only the music lingering behind to speed her on her way. (ACOK, Dany IV)
Not only does this confirm Aemon’s statements, it introduces a prophecy we’ve never heard of before, a little something called “The Song of Ice and Fire.” Sounds important to me. Needless to say, this strongly suggests that Rhaegar has a very deep understanding of prophecy, likely deeper than any other Targaryen we’ve encountered. Moreover, we have evidence that he uses these prophecies to make very serious changes in his own life:
Until one day Prince Rhaegar found something in his scrolls that changed him. No one knows what it might have been, only that the boy suddenly appeared early one morning in the yard as the knights were donning their steel. He walked up to Ser Willem Darry, the master-at-arms, and said, ‘I will require sword and armor. It seems I must be a warrior.’“ (ASOS, Dany I)
The text clearly supports the idea that Rhaegar is interested and very familiar with the Targaryen prophetic tradition, that he has strong opinions about who will fulfill these prophecies, and that he has used prophecy to make serious changes in his own life.
With a solid understanding of Rhaegar’s motivations at Harrenhal, his foundational temperament, and his relationship with prophecy, we can (finally!) assemble the theory of The Doomed Prince.
We ought to assume that Rhaegar has a very good understanding of the prophecy of The Prince That Was Promised, and the build up to its fulfillment. He’s been interested in the subject since childhood, has a keen, focused, intellectually savvy mind, and as the Crown Prince, he has exceptional resources and access. His understanding of this subject is almost certainly far superior to any of his contemporaries. So what might he have found in his dusty, cryptic tomes? What did he know about the lead up to the War for The Dawn? I propose that he knew that the heros of the War for the Dawn would be born amidst the utter destruction of their ruling dynasty and raised far from the power centers of Westeros. That the Targaryens fated to save the world from eternal darkness would be refugees from a brutal coup that kills nearly every one of their adult relatives, Rhaegar included. I believe that Rhaegar, influenced by the popular romantic-tragedies of westerosi pop-culture, ultimately embraced this prophecy, sacrificing his family, his throne and himself so that it could be fulfilled. While I recognize that this is a dramatic and unusual theory, but I believe it has some support in the text and provides the only plausible understanding of Rhaegar’s behavior after Harrenhal.
While we certainly don’t know the specific prophecy that Rhaegar actions are based on, that shouldn’t be terribly alarming. There’s a great number of prophecies that are vital to the plot that we have no information about. For instance, there’s apparently a “Song of Ice and Fire” of some kind? We don’t know what it is, but I’d bet it’s probably important.
The idea of a tremendous personal sacrifice for the greater good would be very familiar to Rhaegar from other prophecies like the Azor Ahai myth. But I think it would also resonate with his melancholic personality, his passion for the tragic-romance songs common in Westeros, and his own personal history.
To be clear, I don’t want to suggest that Rhaegar’s depressive personality is entirely due to some unknown prophecy. But I do think that the specific language that’s used to describe his depression could point towards an acceptance of his prophesied death:
“there was a melancholy to Prince Rhaegar, a sense…” The old man hesitated again.
“Say it,” she urged. “A sense…?”
“…of doom. ” (ASOS, Dany IV)
I also do not want to suggest that this melancholy attitude would be enough to make him accept his own prophesied death and the death of everyone he cares about. I do think that all of Rhaegar’s personality, including his passion for prophecy, his intelligence, his single-mindedness, and yes, his depression predisposed him towards accepting and working towards this dark future. There were other contributing factors as well. I think the Westerosi tradition of tragic romances that Rhaegar was so fond of provided a narrative where it is noble and right to pursue objectives that will inevitable lead to tragic consequences. Most importantly, I think Rhaegar’s attitude towards Summerhall indicates his attitude towards to collapse of his dynasty and the death of his family. The Tragedy of Summerhall, during which Rhaegar was born, is veiled in mystery, but we know that it is tied to prophecy and the return of dragons, and was the cause of the death of much of his family. This seems as though it would be reason enough for Rhaegar to avoid Summerhall and mistrust prophecy. Instead, the opposite is true: he loves Summerhall and trusts prophecy implicitly. I think Rhaegar holds this view of Summerhall because he doesn’t see it as a failed attempt to restore Targaryen greatness or a cautionary tale about putting too much trust in prophecy. He sees it as the first step towards the culmination of a much darker prophecy; the initial weakening of the Targaryen dynasty so that it is poised to completely collapse such that the saviors of humanity can rise from its ashes. This quote, from Barristan again, illustrates this point and gets as close to textual evidence as we’re going to come:
And yet Summerhall was the place the prince loved best. He would go there from time to time, with only his harp for company. Even the knights of the Kingsguard did not attend him there. He liked to sleep in the ruined hall, beneath the moon and stars, and whenever he came back he would bring a song. When you heard him play his high harp with the silver strings and sing of twilights and tears and the death of kings, you could not but feel that he was singing of himself and those he loved.“ (ASOS, Dany IV)
This is the Doomed Prince Theory in one quote. Rhaegar sings of twilight and tears and the death of kings, but the tragedy he’s singing is about himself and his family- a prophesied dynastic collapse that Rhaegar worked tirelessly to bring about.
I also believe that this theory provides a more interesting thematic considerations for the future of the story. Rhaegar is a central figure for Dany’s self conception, and likely the same will be true for Jon in the near future. If Rhaegar is simply another prophecy obsessed Targaryen without political acumen, I don’t see how his story will influence these two heros in the last two books. But in the context of the Doomed Prince, where Rhaegar is willing to cause great strife and sacrifice himself and everyone that he loves in the hope of saving the world, his story is immediately and powerfully resonant with the conflicts that will consume Dany and Jon in the last two books. Rhaegar’s visits to the tragic location of his birth, and his attempt to salvage meaning and beauty from the deaths that occurred there will be mirrored when Dany returns to Dragonstone, and when Jon visits the Tower of Joy.
Discussions of characters from ASOIAF can sometimes be reduced to a simplistic “is so-and-so a good guy?” I think the conversation around Rhaegar is particularly likely to fall into this trap, since the descriptions in the text seem to support a “good guy” reading, and a deeper analysis of his actions and their consequences cast a lot of doubt on this “good guy” hypothesis. This second perspective towards Rhaegar is largely negative and mostly correct. Rhaegar is obsessed with prophecy, he is a romantic, and his actions do lead to the downfall of his house. But this conventional wisdom also supposes that Rhaegar is politically naive, a fool who is unaware of the likely outcome of his decisions. I couldn’t disagree more. Rhaegar is intelligent, and politically sophisticated enough to orchestrate the complex great council plot at Harrenhal. To understand why a smart, politically savvy person like Rhaegar would pursue such an obviously disastrous course of action, we need to consider the possibility that it was intentional, that Rhaegar was working towards the collapse of the Targaryen dynasty. If that collapse was foretold as a prophecy, an event that would occur at the birth of the Prince That Was Promised, I believe that Rhaegar would pursue it, despite the consequences for himself and his family. I think the available evidence regarding Rhaegar’s personality and interests support this possibility, and his feelings regarding Summerhall even provide a bit of textual evidence. By focusing our discussion on whether Rhaegar is a good guy, we may have created a strawman that isn’t a good or interesting character. In appreciating the horrible consequences of his actions, we may have blinded ourselves to the motivations behind those actions. The appeal of Rhaegar as a silver haired douchebag may have prevented us from seeing Rhaegar as the doomed prince he really is.
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